FDX trade ideas
Identifying the Breakout on a big nameLet me know your comments please.
Expect consolidation soon I would imagine. But we also know what they say about expecting the market to do something
FDX, breakout on good volume.I look for breakouts with above average volume. FDX was a clear good candidate after taking out Dec 13 high.
Expect it to run into $208 with the DJIA being strong.
FedEx Fractal UpdateModel now tracking mid June 2015, back then at new all time high, just as today. Dow lagging behind looking for its own final top around the 21400 area. Ideal target of 20 handles in the wake of earnings, discretional stops as always.
FEDEX SHORT FEDEX breakinf a major trendline and is failing to break this current areas. Wyckoff distribution phase has formed and RISK TO REWARD is very nice.
FDX at all time highFDX is pushing highr to new all time highs
big vol last week and potencial breakout
on chart you can see the big uptrend and correction 50%
a long term hold on this trade 200 onlt firt stop in my opinion
Long FDXHey guys, these are my thoughts on fedex:
Stock bouced at a very strong support.
There was a complete change of emotions today, a change of power. ( The bears had control last week and were in power but today with a gap up and with a close for a positive day, the bulls are now in control and have the power. A lot of bears are starting to wonder if the should exit tomorow if the stock move higher and maybe some people took their gains today so this looks strong for a reversal
When you see a nice downtrend move or uptrend move and then an indecision candle, it means that something is about to change in the direction of trend and this is what happen today.
Potential Short in FDX Still trying to find my way through TA and trend following, I chose to scrutinize a company that I picked to be in my portfolio at my internship. Back in October, I looked at FDX for a long position to fill out a portfolio of blue chip dividend paying stocks for a model client portfolio. As luck would have it, the stock then rose from $170 to $200. I was happy with the result of the trend, however, as it approached $200, I felt uncomfortable keeping it in the portfolio. I thought it was overreached.
This is where I fight the deep value investing principles of "buy and hold" with the trend following rules of riding profits and taking profits when the trend has run its course. I am still trying to find a middle ground, I am getting closer.
Looking at the daily charts, FDX is hanging on to support at the 186.39 level. As of yesterday it crossed its 50 MA in a bearish manner, but I am looking for a confirmation and continuation of the bearish sentiment, and I like the probabilities.
Fundamentally, I wanted to get rid of FDX due to increased debt accumulation, decreased cash, and negative free cash flows. With a PE Ratio of 26, its more expensive than 73% of its competitors. Its trading 3.26 times book value, putting it more expensive than almost 90% of its competitors. Cash to debt ratio has decreased each year over the last four years, going from 1.64 in 2013, to 0.26 in May 2016. Enterprise Value for FDX has increased over the last four years from 28,572 to 54,136 in 2016, that's a high price tag for 26 times earnings.
For these reasons, I give more weight to the bearish probability outcome than I do the bullish one. Could the fact that I've found more shorting opportunities in larger cap "blue chip" stocks mean something for the overall market? I'm not sure. Would love some feedback.
If FDX breaks current support, look to take profits around the 200 MA. Not the greatest Risk Reward Ratio: 1.49, but nevertheless, interesting to see what happens.
SHORT Fedex Corp.The price channel for this security its very clear, a ressitance at $195, and a support at $187. The candlestick formation is suitable and supports out idea for the trade. We can also get some help from the inexes, which we think are going to take a resto from the bullish trendes for a couple days.The trade is pretty simple.
LongI like fedex here, these are my thoughts:
There is a huge support line that goes from 2014-12-08 to today, so this is very strong. From the beginning to 2016-11-14, that was a nice resistance line but since the breakout of that resistance line, it became a support. The stock broke out that resistance line with strength, then came back at the support line and made a nice bounce. One week later, the stock came back again and it bounced again for a nice uptrend. So today, the stock came at the support line for the third time, bounced and finished the day with a nice hammer, a candle that is very bullish. So the fact that there is a nice support line and that the candle is very bullish, i am expecting a move on the upside. This stock did the same thing as the market: It gap down a lot, continue to move down, bounced at the support line and finished the day very close to the high so that shows that bulls finished the day with the power and control.
short fdx!was waiting to do something with FDX, but wanted ER to blow over first.
looks like a good short candidate. 2 possible bearish order blocks. first one got touched march 1 and fdx closed below. also touched fib level. 2nd possible order block entered marc 17 20 and 22 (today). also bearish divergence bar forming on daily. see if it closes today and completes the candle.
sold call spreads 195/197.5
target 180s? gives us AB=CD and a 1.27 extension from fractal break at 184
FedEx 2014-2015 Fractal*Fractal of 9 months extrapolation taken from 2014-2015 with no modification
*Current levels tracking march 2015 right before earnings even at that time
*The levels of capex have been sliding in the last 2 yrs while the debt/equity has grown
partly to sustain the huge buyback program started in back in 2016, which defended four times the price action with the marked trendline, now reasonable first target, if the fractal continues.
*Stop at all time highs, ideal target at 180 handle
OPENING: FDX MARCH 31ST 177.5/182.5/202.5/207.5 IRON CONDOR... for a 1.40 credit. (Earnings; Volatility Contraction Play).
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 60%
Max Profit: $140/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $360/contract
Break Evens: 181.10/203.90
Notes: Will look to manage at 50% of max.
THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, NKE EARNINGSWith fourth quarter earnings announcements trailing off majorly here, there isn't much in the way of earnings to play, with the earnings of note for premium sellers being FDX, which announces on 3/21 after market close, and NKE (same).
FDX is toward the top of its implied volatility range over the past six months (85), with NKE in the 63rd percentile over that same time period. However, background implied volatility in FDX isn't that great (29); neither is NKE (25), so the question remains whether a volatility contraction play in either of those will be particularly productive from a dollar and cents standpoint.
Preliminarily, the FDX March 31st 177.5/182.5/207.5/212.5 iron condor plays 1.23 at the mid, somewhat short of the one-third the width of the wings I look for in these plays.
With NKE, I would probably either go short strangle or narrow short strangle/iron fly, with the defined risk March 31st 54.5/57.5/58.5/61.5 bringing in 1.69 at the mid, which is also a bit shy of the one-quarter the width of the longs (7 wide) I like to see in an iron fly.
Elsewhere, VIX continues to trundle on far below its long term one year (13.9) and three-year moving averages (15.4), extending a sub-15 drought that's been in place since mid-November of 2016, and no liquid exchange-traded fund has the metrics I want to see for a play (>70% implied volatility rank (6 month); >35% implied volatility).
I've also been looking at bullish directional plays in either XOP, GDX or both, with my preference being for diagonals to allow me to work the short put over a period of a time rather than doing them as "one off", single expiry credit spreads. Examples: XOP April 21st 35 short put/June 16th 31 long put diagonal; GDX April 21st 21.5 short put/June 16th 19 long put diagonal. Both of these would be put on for a small credit, and I'll post these ideas separately.
