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FDX trade ideas

FedEx MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK|Technicals &Few Fundamentals|DJUSAF/TSFedEx(FDX) : Series on Equities (Extension to XLI post)- Sept 22nd (5 Minute Read) Since I do not post much about individual equities (maybe this will change in the future) , I will keep this post short and mostly technical . Nevertheless, some extremely significant fundamentals will be analysed . The purpose of this post is to analyse FedEx's performance and their correlation with the expected performance of the US economy in the next 3-4 Quarters . Key word : Expectations . Starting-off with the technicals. On the monthly chart, FDX is nearing a bearish cross/squeeze on the ichimoku cloud . This is quite crucial as the ichimoku cloud previously served as a buy zone in 2016 and 2012 . At the end of 2018 and the sell-off, the primary support levels for FedEx were the 100 Monthly EMA (turquoise line) near the ichimoku cloud. Unfortunately, this outcome only served as a bearish flag, and with the recent earnings miss the cross finally happened. At this moment and time in September, the last monthly candle simply looks very nasty(bearish) . As labelled from the chart, the next support zones are the previous bottoms from 2016 and the peaks of 2007 ~122-132$ . Now, let's dive into the fundamentals and compare FedEx to the dow benchmark for delivery and transportation services . ibb.co ( DJUSAF- Delivery Services ) ibb.co ( DJUSTF- Transportation Services ) Unfortunately, these charts can't be accessed on Tradiview due to regulations. FedEx blamed the recent earnings miss on the US/China Trade war stall and the split with Amazon . This is fair, but is there more to it? From the 2 links above, it's clear that the two industries haven't performed as well as compared to some of the other cyclical industries. DJUSAF/DJUSTF can be considered somewhat middle of the pack between cyclical and defensive , depending on the factors considered. Perhaps FedEx is struggling, but so are these fundamental industries as a whole . The last earnings miss from FedEx was not as large as the previous one, yet it seems that the expectations were that it will perform just as well as the rest of the SPX/Dow companies . The main issue at hand is, whether this poor performance can improve our expectations on, how the economy will perform in the next four critical and highly risky quarters (Q3;Q4- 2019, Q1;Q2- 2020)? (ibb.co) Credit to the Cass Freight inc . The recent report from the Cass Freight Inc. suggests that there is a major downtrend in trading volume across the US and globally. FedEx's lowering their 2020 earnings guidance is not a mutually exclusive issue to the downtrend in trading volumes. Essentially, the worst case outcome of these two events is that, they can be seen as recession foreshadowing factors . Without a doubt their performance can be considered as fundamental to a healthy and growing economy. To wrap up this post just like every other one from my past 10 posts- since the summer and in the following quarters, expecting a speculation game . On the chart above the primary bullish FedEx targets are marked in case there's a US/China trade deal . Otherwise, as things stand, the most likely pattern is the drawn ABC . Depending on the timing of the bad news in the worst case, could expect a direct drop to ~60,65$. Keeping a close look at FedEx and the performance of some of the fundamental/defensive industries in the next couple of quarters will be essential . This is it for FedEx, hope at least someone found this post useful! I'd really appreciate any comments with insights on FedEx or similarly fundamental stocks. -Step_Ahead_ofthemarket- >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! 1. Part two- US10Y, US 10 Year Treasury note Yield 2. The uptrend in VIX analysis : 3. FED Rates Supercyclical analysis : 4. US Industrials XLI : Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
NYSE:FDXShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
Daily Market Report for FEDEX - Market Bounce!Strategydb believe that standardized and repetitive analysis instills discipline in trading. Reports list major areas of interest that should be considered when performing technical analysis and / or creating a trading plan. Market Mode of Behavior: FDX : NYSE : 173.30 : Macro: Eight specific set-ups that dictate the current trading strategy... Currently, this market meets the Corrective Bear Mode criteria. Price is trending higher. For the entire data set this market has been in Corrective Bear Mode 11.59% of the time. The average number of bars spent in this Mode before transitioning normally = 15. Since the current number of bars in Mode = 9, this Mode of Behavior still has 6 bars to mature before meeting its average and possibly transitioning. Remember that this analysis is being performed on the bar interval. The average price growth during this behavior is approximately = 4.78. This is compared to the current price growth of 14.24. Based upon the closing price of the most recent bar, price growth has been exceeded. Back to Top Transitions & Time: FDX : NYSE : 173.30 : Macro: Background on the current Mode of Behavior... Transition from Trending Bear Mode occurred 9 bar(s) ago. According to our signal logic, this transition occurred normally and triggered on the shortest time frame. This TBECBE transition occurs very often. Long-term stratgies applied to this transition do well in hypothetical back-tests. Please see our disclaimer and contact us for more information. Possessing knowledge of the preceding Mode of Behavior as well as the most likely subsequent Mode assists in executing current strategies, exits, and setups for the next trade. Back to Top Standard Analysis: FDX : NYSE : 173.30 : Macro: A closer look at the current Mode of Behavior... The current bar's close at 173.30 demonstrates that prices should continue higher. Cautionary price levels 9.58% below the market are outside the Average True Range price percentage window of 2.69%, currently lowering the short-term probability of transitioning out of Corrective Bear Mode. The Average True Range price percentage window is simply a function of the 16 bar Average True Range, divided by the underlying's closing price of the last bar. Cautionary price levels are proprietary. Prices in this region indicate possible Mode transitions. Volatility based on the 30 day standard deviation = 31.52%. Volatility based upon the 30 day Average True Range = 4.67 points, (based upon the underlying's price scale.) The price change versus 1 week ago = -0.80. The price change versus 1 month ago = 14.69. The price change versus 1 year ago = 11.97. Back to Top Advice: FDX : NYSE : 173.30 : Macro: Straight-forward wisdom on how to position for near-term profits... Alert! Transactions in FOREX, Futures, and Stocks, carry a high degree of risk. No slippage or commissions are included here or in our Statistics tables. Your FCM will charge you a commission. Range trade this market from the long side. Buy dips. Do not trend trade. During Corrective Bear Mode short time-frame traders disagree with medium and longer time-frame traders. Short-term corrective rallies are expected. (+--) Back to Top Natural Attraction: FDX : NYSE : 173.30 : Macro: Expected tendencies and targets... During Corrective Bear Mode prices should tend towards a point located at 180.15. Back to Top Support & Resistance: FDX : NYSE : 173.30 : Macro: Specific trading levels or bands... SPEEDVIEW TRADING WIDGET A key level to watch, located at 172.73 is exactly 0.57 points, or 0.3% away. Trading Band6 Level = 182.36 Trading Band5 Level = 177.70 Trading Band4 Level = 173.03 Trading Band3 Level = 168.37 Trading Band2 Level = 163.70 Trading Band1 Level = 159.03 Back to Top Price Growth / Decay Projections: FDX : NYSE : 173.30 : Macro: Growth / decay projections... Target#1 Hit @ 174.61 Target#2=191.17 Distance=17.87 Move=10.3% Back to Top Common Technicals: FDX : NYSE : 173.30 : Macro: Values for commonly used technical analysis indicators... Macro = Daily Bars... Momentum Indicators 09 Day RSI = 68.86 10 Day RSI = 67.57 14 Day RSI = 63.45 Moving Averages 003 Bar MA = 173.66 004 Bar MA = 173.62 005 Bar MA = 173.69 008 Bar MA = 171.25 010 Bar MA = 169.34 014 Bar MA = 165.57 018 Bar MA = 162.78 020 Bar MA = 162.21 030 Bar MA = 161.12 040 Bar MA = 163.35 050 Bar MA = 163.76 100 Bar MA = 165.64 200 Bar MA = 173.54 Oscillators 12,26 Day MACD = 3.61 9 Day Smoothed MACD = 1.71 Difference = 1.90 Volatility 20 Period Bollinger Bands +2 Devs = 177.46 20 Period Bollinger Bands -2 Devs = 145.45 Wilder Parabolic Stop and Reverse ParabolicSAR = 154.37
NYSE:FDXLong
by strategydb