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QM1! trade ideas

WTI Crude Oil: An Emerging Trading RangeThis morning’s jobs report came in stronger than expected, and oil prices rallied. The 216k December NFP gain topped the +175k estimate, though revisions to the two previous months were sharply negative – a trend we saw throughout 2023. Average hourly earnings verified hotter than what economists were forecasting. At +4.1% on a year-on-year basis, workers are now earning about a full percentage point above the current inflation rate. Compared to the 6-month annualized Core PCE rate, you could argue that real wages are positive by 2.2% versus December 2022. Amid a strong labor market and ahead of next week’s CPI report, commodity prices are treading water. WTI hovers in the low $70s, and I assert that a new trading range has developed between $68 and $79. Trend-following traders may be frustrated by this sideways price action, but more stable energy costs could be a boon to the corporate world, right as the Q4 reporting season gets underway a week from today. For now, this $11 WTI range will be one to watch as 2024 progresses. A breakout through it would portend an upside measured move price target to about $90, based on the $11 range height. A bearish breakdown could lead to a dip into the FWB:50S per barrel of WTI. With very high domestic oil and gas production and wavering global demand for oil amid a possible slowdown in GDP growth over the first half of the year, there are certainly some bearish supply/demand factors at play. Still, ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to a surge in shipping container day rates, and further geopolitical escalations is a bullish catalyst to watch over the coming weeks. For now, I see more trendless action taking place in crude oil.
NYMEX:CL1!
by mikezaccardi
The daily chart of Crude Oil seems algorithmically beautiful The last two weeks for NYMEX:CLG2024 were wild. We rallied around +10% due to geopolitical and macroeconomics events and the last three days we saw a retrace around -5%. Now to the technical part of the chart. Oil reacted to the volume imbalance (checkpoint "1") pushing price to go lower . We are currently touching the bullish order-block (checkpoint "2") that should work as a support for the price to make it bounce higher, at least to the volume imbalance (checkpoint "5") or the Buyside liquidity resting to the checkpoint "7". On the other hand, if price does not react to the order-block oil could price lower to the Fair Value Gap (checkpoint "3" )and maybe touch the volume imbalance (checkpoint "4")(*Note that the lower doted line of the checkpoint 4 is also the 50% of the wick of the weekly candle that could also work by itself as a support). If we do not see a displacement higher we should assume that maybe price want to go lower to take the Sell-side Liquidity that is resting bellow the checkpoint "6" before heads for the upside. In my opinion after that pricing ,oil could go to the checkpoint "8" (that is the 50% of the wick of the daily candle) or draw to the the buyside liquidity at checkpoint "9". After all I think oil will price higher but before doing so it has to go to some key points that been stated above.
NYMEX:CLG2024
by GeoKyra
Channel Set-up - Crude OilBased on Elliot Wave counts from another source, I believe the low at 67.71 is in and Wave 1 is completed at 76.18. The bottom of the channel will complete Wave 2 at the same level. Likely will see another low in overnight trading to come to .618 Fib level seen on the chart and then see prices start to move up. Fib levels are not hard and fast and Wave 2 can dip pretty close to the low at 67.71 with count invalidated below that level. Will look to confirm if you will the channel bottom low with prices turning up and seeing higher highs and higher lows.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HedgehogLanding
5
WTI Crude oilOur overview: Despite EIA report a big draw in stock and the impact of the Red Sea commercial routes disruption, is still not clear, the market experienced a deep selloff. In our opinion due to end of year portfolios correction and take profit. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave B, intermediate(green): downward corrective structure wave B, minor(yellow): upward corrective structure wave A, intraday(orange): upward impulsive structure wave 1. Our current strategy: Aggressive Long looking for a technical rebound with first target @$73.80. Our current position's risk profile @$72.20: delta +0.48, gamma +0.19 Hedging point: on breakout $71.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DeltaZeroProprietaryTrading