QM1! trade ideas
Oil looking good so farNot a trendline trader but look how this trendline is respected
We did approx 400 ticks this week
If the next week is good and we go the same pace we can end up at 75,60 at some point
Looks like we are in uptrend and hopefully next week oil will treat us good
COT Strategy - Crude Oil LongsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL again this week. To clarify, this was setup last week also, and triggered me long this week via a CCI divergence long trigger. Based on this weeks COT strategy analysis, I think this is a nice market for further upside and will look to enter again via 18MA & 10H8C MAC entry methods.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal.
Net Positioning: Max long of last 3 years - bullish.
Small Spec Index: Buy Signal.
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries.
Front Month Premium Market.
True Seasonal up to Mid October.
Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic.
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a Daily long trigger.
Good luck & good trading.
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) on the NYMEX struggle
Price Movement
Current Price: The current price is $71.00, showing a recent increase of $2.35 (3.42%).
Trend: The price has been fluctuating within a range, marked by a purple rectangle, indicating consolidation between approximately $60 and $80.
Volume
Current Volume: 1.45 million, suggesting moderate trading activity.
Historical Performance
The table below the chart shows monthly percentage changes from 2013 to 2024.
Seasonality:
March and April tend to have positive returns historically, with April showing an average increase of 4.38%.
October and November often exhibit negative returns, with October averaging a decrease of 2.18%.
Technical Indicators
The chart includes several annotations indicating significant price changes over time.
Resistance and Support Levels:
Resistance appears around $80.
Support is near $60, as indicated by the lower boundary of the consolidation range.
Conclusion
The chart suggests that crude oil prices are in a consolidation phase. Traders might look for a breakout above $80 for bullish confirmation or a breakdown below $60 for bearish signals. Historical data indicates potential seasonal trends that could influence future price movements.
Weekly analysis crude oilRed line's are support
Green line's are resistance
Only for learning purpose
Will a Jumbo Rate Cut Fuel Crude Oil Rally? US equities soared to record highs on higher-than-expected rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Additional rate cuts implied by the Fed dot plot signals a goldilocks economic scenario. A booming economy coupled with low crude oil inventory levels with intensifying geopolitics could tip crude oil prices into a rally.
Oil prices rose higher yesterday as hard economic landing concerns eased. Despite the rise, oil prices still languish at near-record lows for the year.
This paper posits a long position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures with an entry at $69.90/barrel with a target of $76.50/barrel and a stop at $67.30/barrel.
JUMBO RATE CUT BY THE US FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), bringing the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5%. With inflation easing and the labour market softening, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted for the aggressive rate cut.
US inflation is nearing its 2% target. Job growth has slowed. Unemployment, though rising slightly, remains low. To maximise employment while guiding inflation on a downward trajectory, the FOMC delivered a 50 bps rate cut.
The unemployment forecasts were revised to 4.4%, up from June's 4% estimate. Inflation outlook was lowered to 2.3% from 2.6%.
NOT ONE BUT THREE OIL BULLS ARE LURKING IN THE SIDELINES
Rate cuts, low inventory, and intensifying geopolitical tensions could tip oil prices into a rally.
Rate Cuts and Crude Oil
Typically rate cuts boost oil prices by weakening the dollar and increasing demand for dollar-denominated commodities.
Tank-Bottom Inventory Levels
US commercial crude oil inventories have fallen to their lowest level in a year. Inventories at Cushing have hit tank-bottom levels. For now, a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories for the week ending 13/Sep had a negligible impact on oil prices.
The EIA reported a 1.6 million barrel decline, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 200,000 barrel drop.
Traders dismissed the drop in inventory, attributing it to temporary facility shutdowns on the US Gulf Coast due to inclement weather.
US refineries plan to undertake their lightest preventive maintenance season in three years as estimated by IIR Energy. Higher refining activity should result in increased demand for crude oil in the coming months.
Intensifying Geopolitics
Talks between Libya's rival factions have collapsed leading to a significant decline in Libyan exports. Compounding that are the escalating Middle East conflicts with pagers and walkie-talkies explosions in Lebanon.
OIL BULLS FACE FEEBLE MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN CHINA
Earlier this month, OPEC , EIA , and IEA lowered their 2024 global oil demand forecasts, citing weaker demand from China's slowing economy.
Recent data shows continued weakness. Industrial output growth is at a five-month low. Oil imports are declining with slower refinery output. Property prices continue to fall. Retail sales growth remains tepid.
Housing prices continued to decline, with a 5.3% YoY drop, the steepest since 2015. New home prices fell 0.73% MoM in August, a sharper decline than July's 0.65% drop.
Property investment dropped 10.2% YTD, while housing completions fell 23.6%, indicating that declining property prices are deterring investment.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
When oil bulls lurking in the dark attack, expect oil prices to spike. Options markets are positioning for this scenario. Open Interest Put/Call Ratio at 0.77 as of 18/Sep in CME WTI Crude Oil points to a bullish slant.
CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures offer the same exposure to crude oil price movements as standard WTI futures, but at 1/10th the contract size, making them a more accessible and flexible option for traders, enabling more granular hedging.
This paper posits a long position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures with the following trade setup:
• Entry: $69.90/barrel
• Target: $76.50/barrel
• Stop: $67.30/barrel
• P&L at Target (per lot): $660 ((76.50 – 69.90) x 100)
• P&L at Stop (per lot): $ 260 ((67.30 – 69.90) x 100)
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CRUDEOIL BREAKOUT ? FROM FALLING WEDGECrude Oil (1 Hour Timeframe)
Pattern: Falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential breakout.
Entry: Long position above 6040
Target Levels:
1st target: 6100
2nd target: 6140
3rd target: 6200
4th target: 6235
Stop-Loss (SL) : yours
Risk Management: Set stop-losses appropriately to manage risk and avoid potential losses.
Fundamental Factors:
Fed Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates is seen as positive for oil demand, potentially boosting prices.
Geopolitical Tensions: A recent attack on Iran-backed Hezbollah raises concerns about wider conflict in the Middle East, which could disrupt oil supplies and push prices higher.
Disclaimer: This technical analysis is based on the provided data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
IF THIS WILL HELP YOU, PLEASE LIKE THE POST ❤️
testchecking the first trade date is a very important date to consider if u are gonna dive deep into the gann feild , very long but exciting journal
2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Strong second leg up (daily tf) and bulls even tried to break above the bear flag but for now I doubt the breakout will be succesful. We are right in the middle of the broad bear channel and odds are 50/50 for either side. Above 72 odds rise for the bulls and below 69.5 I favor the bears again.
comment: In my weekly outlook I wrote that if 65 holds, bulls are favored for 73 or 74. High today was 71.92. I doubt bulls are strong enough to break above the bull channel and make the pullback even steeper. 50% pullback from the selloff since 77 is around 71.5, so we are right in the middle of the broad bear channel. Odds favor the bears to test the lower bull channel around 70.5 again. If bulls fail there and bears can break below, we will likely see a retest of 67 or 66.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls got decent follow through and they want an endless pullback for the bears and keep going until they hit the upper bear trend line around 74.5. They are trading above the 4h 20ema and every touch of it is bought. As long as they keep it above 70, higher prices are expected.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears see this bear flag with 3 pushes up as done and the 50% pb is high enough to try for a continuation of the bear trend. Don’t be among the first to join them. Confirmation would be a 15m bar close below 70 and a break below the bull channel.
Invalidation is above 72.
short term: Neutral around the 50% pb 71.5. Bearish below 70 and bullish above 72.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Buying the 4h 20ema is profitable again.
My view on CRUDEOIL Crudeoil forming inverse head& shoulder pattern
Looking tgt 6000++ very soon...👈
A New President's Potential Impact on Oil Prices1. Introduction
The U.S. presidential election in 2024 is set to bring new leadership, with a new president guaranteed to take office. As history has shown, political transitions often have a profound effect on financial markets, and crude oil is no exception. Traders, investors and hedgers are now asking the critical question: how will WTI Crude Oil futures react to this change in leadership?
While there is much speculation about how a Democrat versus a Republican might shape oil policy, data-driven insights provide a more concrete outlook. Using a machine learning model based on key U.S. economic indicators, we’ve identified potential movements in crude oil prices, spanning short, medium, and long-term timeframes.
2. Key Machine Learning Predictions for Crude Oil Prices
Short-Term (1 Week to 1 Month):
Based on the machine learning model, the immediate market reaction within the first week following the election is expected to be minimal, with predicted price changes below 2% for both a Republican and Democratic win. The one-month outlook also suggests additional opportunity.
Medium-Term (1 Quarter to 1 Year):
The model shows a significant divergence in crude oil prices over the medium term, with a potential sharp upward movement one year after the election. Regardless of which party claims the presidency, WTI crude oil prices could potentially rise by over 40%. This is in line with historical trends where significant price shifts occurred one year post-election, driven by economic recovery, fiscal policies, and broader market sentiment.
Long-Term (4 Years):
Over the course of the full four-year presidential term, the model predicts more moderate growth, averaging around 15%. The data suggests that, while short-term market movements may seem reactive, the long-term outlook is more balanced and less influenced by the winning party. Instead, economic conditions, such as interest rates and industrial activity, will have a more sustained impact on crude oil prices.
3. Feature Importance: The Drivers Behind Crude Oil Price Movements
The machine learning model's analysis highlights that crude oil price movements, especially one year after the election, are primarily driven by economic indicators, rather than the political party in power. Below are the top features influencing crude oil prices:
Top Economic Indicators Influencing Crude Oil:
Fed Funds Rate: The most significant driver of crude oil prices, as interest rate policies affect everything from borrowing costs to overall economic growth. Changes in the Fed Funds Rate can signal shifts in economic activity that directly impact oil demand apart from the US Dollar itself.
Labor Force Participation Rate: A critical indicator of economic health, a higher participation rate suggests a stronger labor market, which supports increased industrial activity and energy consumption, including crude oil.
Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI reflects inflation at the producer level, impacting the cost of goods and services, including oil-related industries.
Consumer Sentiment Index: A measure of the general public's outlook on the economy, which indirectly influences energy demand as consumer confidence affects spending patterns.
Unit Labor Costs: An increase in labor costs can signal inflationary pressures, which could lead to changes in oil prices as businesses pass on higher costs to consumers.
This study exclusively uses U.S. economic data, excluding oil-related fundamentals such as OPEC+ supply and demand information, in order to focus on the election’s direct impact through domestic economic channels.
Minimal Influence of Political Party on Price Movements:
Interestingly, the machine learning model suggests that the political party of the newly elected president has a relatively low impact on crude oil prices. The performance of WTI crude oil appears to be more closely tied to macroeconomic factors, such as employment data and inflation, than the specific party in power.
These findings emphasize the importance of focusing on economic fundamentals when analyzing crude oil price movements for longer term exposures, rather than solely relying on political outcomes.
4. Historical Analysis of Crude Oil Price Reactions to U.S. Elections
Looking back over the last two decades, the performance of crude oil post-election has varied, depending on global conditions and the economic policies of the newly elected president.
Notable Historical Movements:
George W. Bush (Republican): In his 2000 election, crude oil dropped nearly 50% within a year, reflecting the broader economic fallout from the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the events of 9/11. In contrast, his 2004 re-election saw oil prices climb 21.5% within a year, driven by the Iraq War and increasing global demand for energy.
Barack Obama (Democratic): After his 2008 election, crude oil prices surged by 33.8% within one year, partly due to economic recovery efforts following the global financial crisis. His 2012 re-election saw more modest growth, with an 8.3% rise over the same period.
Donald Trump (Republican): His election in 2016 coincided with a moderate 23.8% increase in crude oil prices over one year, as the U.S. ramped up energy production through fracking, contributing to global supply increases.
Joe Biden (Democratic): Most recently, crude oil prices skyrocketed by over 100% in the year following Biden’s 2020 victory, driven by post-pandemic economic recovery and supply chain disruptions that affected global energy markets.
5. WTI Crude Oil Contracts: CL and MCL Explained
When trading crude oil futures, the two most popular contracts offered by the CME Group are WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) and Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL). Both contracts offer traders a way to speculate or hedge on the price movements of crude oil, but they differ in size, margin requirements, and ideal use cases.
WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL):
Price Fluctuations: The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $10 change for one contract.
Margin Requirements: As of recent estimates, the margin requirement for trading a CL contract is around $6,000, though this can fluctuate depending on market volatility.
Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL):
Price Fluctuations: 10 times less. The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $1 change for one contract.
Margin Requirements: 10 times less, around $600 per contract.
Practical Application:
During periods of heightened market volatility—such as the lead-up to and aftermath of a U.S. presidential election—traders can use both CL and MCL contracts to navigate expected price fluctuations. Larger traders might use CL to hedge against or capitalize on significant price movements, while retail traders may prefer MCL for smaller, controlled exposure.
6. Conclusion
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, crude oil traders are watching closely for market signals. While political outcomes can cause short-term volatility, the machine learning model’s predictions emphasize that broader economic factors will drive crude oil prices more significantly over the medium and long term.
Whether a Democrat or Republican wins, crude oil prices are expected to see a potential increase, particularly one year after the election. This surge, driven by factors such as interest rates, labor market health, and inflation, suggests that traders should focus on these economic indicators rather than placing too much weight on which party claims the presidency.
7. Risk Management Reminder
Navigating market volatility, especially during a presidential election period, requires careful risk management. Crude oil traders, whether trading standard WTI Crude Oil futures (CL) or Micro WTI Crude Oil futures (MCL), should be mindful of the following strategies to mitigate potential risks:
Use of Stop-Loss Orders:
Setting predefined exit points, traders can avoid significant drawdowns if the market moves against their position.
Leverage and Margin Control:
Overexposure can lead to margin calls and forced liquidation of positions in volatile markets.
Position Sizing:
Adjusting position sizes according to risk tolerance is vital especially during uncertain periods like elections.
Hedging Strategies:
Traders might consider hedging their crude oil positions with other instruments, such as options or spreads, to protect against unexpected market moves.
Monitoring Economic Indicators:
Keeping a close watch on key U.S. economic data can provide valuable clues to future crude oil futures price movements.
By using these risk management tools effectively, traders can better navigate the expected volatility surrounding the 2024 U.S. election and protect themselves from significant market swings.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CRUDEOIL MCX - OCTOBER SERIES INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERCrudeoil is making inverted head and shoulder on 1 hour time frame
Weekly time frame is downtrend
Crudeoil trading at weekly strong demand zone
Target we may see 6072 and above that 6279
This chart is only for educational purpose. Do your own analysis before taking any trades
Is another oil price collapse approaching?If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click “FOLLOW” at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help.
Is another oil price collapse approaching?
Despite a slight recovery in oil prices, prices still remain down 10 percent from last quarter.
On Monday, WTI crude oil futures topped $70 a barrel, registering a 1.4 percent increase from the previous week. This was mainly due to oil infrastructure disruptions in the U.S. Gulf and expectations of lower interest rates in the United States. As a result, nearly 20 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains offline due to Hurricane Francine. In addition, investors are betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut of 50 percentage points to stimulate the economy and increase demand for oil. However, concerns persist about slowing demand after Chinese data showed the longest phase of industrial decline since 2021, with lower-than-expected investment and doubts about whether China's growth target will be met.
In Libya, oil exports declined significantly due to the impasse in UN-led talks on central bank management. The EIA provides valuable data on global oil supply, with some information that may be eluding markets. For example, global crude oil production peaked in November 2018 at 84.6 million barrels per day. In May of this year, world production declined to 81 million barrels per day. This indicates a slowdown in supply, and data on the number of Baker Hughes (BKR) oil rigs suggest that drilling activity in the United States is gradually declining.
This may be good news, but the main problem is the declining demand for oil.
Slowing economic growth globally has reduced oil demand, as evidenced by OPEC's consumption review. In particular, China-the world's largest consumer of crude oil-has been affected by the crisis in the real estate sector and the transition to cleaner energy sources such as LNG and electric vehicles. At the same time, the United States has seen an increase in oil exports due to its growing production capacity, putting bearish pressure on global prices and offsetting the production cuts decided by OPEC.
Using technical analysis, we can assume that the price of crude oil will reach $72, which is a resistance zone, before a possible new downward movement.
We anticipate possible weakness in oil prices in the next quarter due to unstable demand around $60. However, a change in OPEC policy could avoid this situation, with a significant cut in production. We will pay attention to the development of news on this issue.
We look forward to seeing you in the next article! And remember, for successful trading always rely on TRADINGVIEW: an indispensable tool that can help you avoid serious mistakes during your trades.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence.
My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea?
Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November.
I look at many interesting things:
-Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to.
-The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October.
-The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October.
-Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil.
-Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November.
TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation.
If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message.
I hope you had a good start to your week.
And as always...
Good Luck & Good Trading.
Oil Price Recovery Emerges Ahead of January LowThe price of oil recovers ahead of the January low ($64.37) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
The price of oil extends the rebound from the monthly low ($65.27) to carve a series of higher highs and lows, with a break/close above $71.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing $74.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) on the radar.
A breach above the monthly high ($74.41) opens up the $75.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $76.30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region but the recent rebound in crude may end up short-lived should the price of oil respond to the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($74.73).
Failure to hold above $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) may push the price of oil back towards the monthly low ($65.27), with a close below $65.40 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a test of the January low ($64.37).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Managing the stop on Crude OilWe can only take what the market gives us.
We can control the market. We can only control our stop loss and manage the risk in our trade.
Hopefully, we get the full 5 waves out of this trend.
That would be an awesome payout!
Link to this strategy in my profile :)
US CRUDE OIL (WATCH FOMC ON SEPT 18th)Based on the support of US Crude Oil, this setup is look to rally upward that could happen this Wednesday of FOMC news.
Entry: 70
Take Profit: 72.00-74.00
A New Move Up On Crude OilTrendCloud Signal triggered on Crude oil today.
blue line: entry
Red line: stop loss
4 hour / 1 hour / 15 min charts all line up in trend strength and momentum.
Trade Plan link in my profile.
CRUDE**CrudeOil:**
This week, after testing both key level's at 68.47 and 65.54, the price is expected to rise to the zone between 72.33 and 73.21.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
(Major trend break) BUY CL1! 4 hour trend break/retest confirmed on 15 min
4 hour lvl broken
prev 15 min being retested as we speak
take profit at next 4hr lvl
