NatGas UpdateA quick update here.
✔️ More faith in the upward trend.
🌫️ The near-term forecast for the next few days is a bit uncertain since there are various ways to read the expanding diagonal.
NGAS trade ideas
NATURAL GAS BULLISH OUTLOOKNATURAL GAS have shown bullish movement, despite the unusual weather in the beginning of June. Several factors are determining the price movement, most significantly of which is the debt ceiling suspension. It might still influence the price of the commodity until Fed announces its final decision.
On a technical note, the instrument it’s with bullish tendencies, since the last low of 2.177 is above the previous low of 2.065. The MACD histogram, although still below 0, is rising and the fast moving average is crossing the slow moving average. Same with the RSI indicator, where the slow moving average is moving above the 50 neutral line.
If the current movement continues, the price might target prices of 2.36. In the opposite scenario, if the price falls below 2.242, it might reach the support of 2.193
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NatGas Update I'm keeping an eye out for a potential leading diagonal. For rigour, I should also include the possibility of expanded diagonal (pale red), which is thought to be unusual but extremely uncomfortable if realized, sowing doubt and despair.
NatGas UNG Detail Trade Plan With Support & Resistance Levels- UNG falling wedge still intact
- potential lacking follow through on the bears on Friday
- Natural Gas needs to confirm 1h uptrend as their very first step
NatGas UpdateConsidering recent developments I'm going to assume that we are in a diagonal wave (a) of [ b] of a triangle Y -
Elliott Wave theory does not give much room for alternatives in this situation, despite the complexity of both the near-term and the medium-term assumptions. I don't currently see them, at least.
Will keep watching closely.
Natgas UpdateOkay, that sudden selloff caused me to reconsider the count. In any case, I didn't like the leading diagonal because it was nested wave 1 that was out of scale to wave (1). Now, I picture wave (2) as a more complicated, but statistically more likely, combination of WXY, where Y is a triangle.
Natural Gas Further DeclinesTraders are currently reducing natural gas losses, but the outlook for the summer is unimpressive, combined with technical factors, which suggests the possibility of further declines in the future.
Natural gas is trading on the weakside of $2.432 (R1), making it new resistance. Overcoming this level will indicate the return of buyers with $2.638 (R2) the next target.
A sustained move under $2.432 (R1) will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $2.168 (Pivot), followed by $1.962 (S1)
S1 – $1.962 R1 – $2.432
S2 – $1.698 R2 – $2.638
S3 – $1.286 R3 – $2.902
Bearish Weather Continues
The current weather patterns are unfavorable for natural gas prices, as systems in the southern US are preventing widespread high temperatures. This bearish weather is expected to continue until hotter patterns arrive, which is projected to be around June 6-10.
Although natural gas prices are increasing on Wednesday, it is not being influenced by the weather. During the May 24-30 period, the US will experience active weather systems with showers, thunderstorms, and temperatures ranging from the 60s to 80s, except for hotter conditions in the Southwest deserts and South Texas reaching the 90s. The Great Lakes and Northeast regions will have cooler-than-normal temperatures, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 30s and 40s. This may result in a slight increase in heating demand.
Canadian Gas Exports to U.S. Normalize
Canadian natural gas exports to the United States have returned to normal levels following disruptions caused by wildfires in Alberta and other western provinces. This has led to a significant drop in U.S. gas futures, as Canada supplies around 8% of the gas consumed or exported by the U.S. In the past weeks, gas flows from Canada averaged 7.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), lower than the year’s average of 8.3 bcfd.
However, the amount of gas exported from Canada to the U.S. is expected to remain near a three-week high of 8.1 bcfd. The wildfires had forced Canadian producers to cut exports to a low of 6.4 bcfd. Overall, the return to normal gas flows from Canada has impacted gas prices and market dynamics in the U.S.
Supply Dynamics
Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states reached 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, surpassing April’s record of 101.4 bcfd. Additionally, gas exports from Canada to the United States were expected to rise to 8.2 bcfd, a near three-week high.
Demand Dynamics
Despite predictions of slightly increased gas demand in the next two weeks, particularly due to low wind power generation, gas futures still experienced a decline. The proportion of U.S. power generated by wind dropped to 7% compared to the previous week’s high of 17%. This decline in wind power led to an increase in gas consumption for electricity generation, particularly in Texas.
In the short term, the outlook for natural gas is bearish. The decrease in wind power generation has resulted in higher gas usage for electricity production, reducing the available supply for storage. Meteorologists project mostly normal weather conditions in the Lower 48 states, except for some colder-than-normal days from May 24-28. Refinitiv forecasts a slight decrease in U.S. gas demand, including exports, from 90.4 bcfd to 89.8 bcfd next week, with revised higher forecasts compared to the previous day’s outlook. These factors contribute to the bearish sentiment in the market.
Natgas UpdateThe wave structure appears to be finished and prepared for an upward trend. It's unclear what this wxy is a part of right now. The wave [ i] that I mentioned is highly hypothetical and most likely to be recycled.
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NATURAL GAS - LONG SETUP!Last push into our Fibonacci levels and then new trend to the upside. Fibonacci levels line up with trendline, turned into support around 2$. White highlighted area (Fib levels) have previously acted as a support and resistance level.
NATURAL GAS Possible Long analysisThe NATURAL GAS trend is bearish for the last couple of months. The market placed a 1.9625 low on 22-Feb-2023. In a 4Hour time frame market reject the resistance area ( $2.54-2.61 ) as mentioned in the price chart and continued the bearish move. Now price is traded near the Support area ( $2.31-2.24 ). Volume indicates bears lose momentum. Price respect the Trendline in the past two times and now again near to test. Price also traded above the 200 MA ( moving average ) which indicates a bullish trend. So initiate long positions after closing above the Support area and also the trendline. On the other side, Short selling is favorable near the resistance area as mentioned above in the price chart after confirmation by a bearish price action structure.
Support and Resistance levels for day trading ;
Pivot Point Level: PP 2.3776
Support Levels: S1 2.3137, S2 2.2684, S3 2.2045
Resistance Levels: R1 2.4229, R2 2.4868, R3 2.5321
Natural Gas Critical LevelsNatural gas, which fell sharply from $ 6.5 to $2 is trying to recover again.
During this process, critical levels were determined. These levels appear at $2.10, $3.50 and $5.50.
As long as it does not fall below the $2.10 level, I can say that the $3.50 targeted buying opportunity in natural gas continues.
NatGas Update A revised version of the chart from yesterday. Be prepared for the possibility that this leading diagonal will turn to be something else (e.g. expanding diagonal). Yet, so far it is bullish
Natural Gas: May Continue To Move DownNatural Gas: May Continue To Move Down
Natural Gas is still under strong bearish pressure on a higher time frame.
All the times that the price manged to grow we saw a very fast sell-off
This is a clear signal that the market is not ready to increase NG for a
a long period of time.
After the price broke out from the pattern on the chart I am looking at for
a deeper bearish continuation movement.
Thank you and Good Luck!
Natgas UpdateThe local correction for natural gas appears to be over, and it will now move through the uptrend. Given that the previous wave marked as (i) was not an impulse, I envisage further struggles to shape a diagonal. Timing is notional; the diagonal can be shorter or longer, and price levels can be quite different. I will be looking for price to shape wxy zigzags up and down to confirm the outlook.
Natural Gas movementThe bull movement and the breakout is real, we should see pull back to load up more positions
Natural Gas Possible Path (Updated)I had originally published a BUY trade idea which I am still in but currently running at a loss. However, I did fail to notice the current wave patterns at that point which now offers some sense as to why the trade has gone against the hopeful BUY direction. I do believe the current leg down is a mini ABC correction phase and I am hopeful for a move up next week. I do think that this BUY trade is for the very long term (months) and may well be a bit rocky, but the price GAP in December 2022 will eventually act as magnet and bring this commodity back off the bottom.
natural gaz probably forming wave 4 of 5 natural gaz it might surprise us with flash crash within the following weeks
Can XNGUSD short squeeze?XNGUSD on the weekly chart showing two years of price action with weekly candles
shows the rise in 2021 into spring 2022 then printing a head and shoulders pattern
and the reversal to deep into the support/demand zone. The volume profile shows
the majority of the trading during this time period to have been between $3.75 and
$ 8.50. It would seem likely that there are a sizeable amount of short sellers holding
positions with unrealized profits of 50% to as much as 300%. This past week had the
best buying volume in six months and provides bulls with optimism
If natural gas can gain some momentum and put in green candles with a decent price range for
a couple of weeks in a row, the combination of new buyers with new interest and short sellers
liquidating and buying to cover their unrealized gains might ignite a bit of a rally for natural
gas. I will keep natural gas on watch. I will keep in mind that a breakout without a
corresponding volume the response could be a fakeout. A stop loss would be $1.95 below the
support zone while the final target would be $4.75 below the POC line. Interval take profits
would be 10% of the forex lots every time the price rises by $0.50 for risk management and
good profit taking while underway.
natural gas bull
natural gas is bull again
1. hit tp1 and finished retracement
2. 2 trend line break out
3 . bullish englulfing candle
Natural Gas Live Buy TradeI have mapped out a mini-Elliott Wave which, in combination with a positive momentum indicator, looks like a decent chance of playing out. The longer time MACD has the lines in the right place. The 15SMA and 5EMA are quite wide apart so there is every chance of a rebound in the coming days.
Risky buy possible long natural gasStop and tgt marked
1:4 R/R
TRADE ON OWN RISK
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
NATURALGAS 22May2023broadly speaking, it is sideways with a fairly large range. but we can still take a chance on a good moment. if you look at the current elliot notation, it is likely that the price will go to the previous HH, you can take a long opportunity with the SL area below the invalid area
