5/9/24 - $vcsa - high risk long b/c mkt is way offsides i think5/9/24 - vrockstar - HIGH RISK LONG alert
there's no obvious way to value this, but i'm going to put it in the fundamental post camp b/c that's all I do.
positioning seems WAY off here and that's the point. this is like 15-20 days to cover, there's no option gamma... just shorts that get destroyed if these guys post anything even reasonably "decent"
NASDAQ:ABNB likely holding this hostage today. yes the consumer sucks. yes they burn cash (but like 50 mm a year and still have a stack 4-5x this amt so you won't get a surprise dilution at least rn). the PE/ VC owners are not selling here. the google trends don't look abysmal - they look "bad" but that's literally in the stock price. also 1Q is typically a better seasonal quarter.
CONCLUSION: the setup is massive high risk in this tape that is pounding names like this that actually miss -30% or more. But I think there's 60-70% chance it's a good result, and the upside here could be monsterous (50%?) and the downside perhaps 20% b/c of the seasonality and GT's data i described above. so 65%*50% + 35%*-20% = 25% upside on my rough guess and I take these shots even in small size when i see them
pls comment if you know more so i can save some PnL if you have a really negative view here and i should update my punt to neutral.
