TQQQ trade ideas
TQQQ (Range Trade)$24.17 was the high since consolidation started late September. Price has been trading in a range since. Might wait til the fed decision and cpi reports pass next week to get a second look.
QQQ TA long QQQ is trading in a major support zone, if we don't get a bounce here we might move a little further down to wave 5 before seeing a significant bounce.
Selling pressure is showing signs of weakening
TQQQ TA (SHORT)Hey guys i am new to Elliot's wave theory so please critique my TA, so bearish divergence on hourly chart with low volume on 4 hour chart. Also looks like a rising wedge being formed. I don't think we can see higher highs until something changes on inflation, economic growth, china and ukraine www.tradingview.com
Normal Monday Pattern QQQ for 12/5/22This is a historical weighted Moving Average of QQQ for Mondays. To build the model, I took a straight average of the past 37 Mondays, and then used a moving weighted average of .15 for the past three Mondays.
Unfortunately, Mondays have not proven to have much price action. You can look for some volatility in the early hour with highs and lows, but the five minute interval mostly staying within a range, followed by a big drop around 10:25 AM. Followed by more choppy boxable action. At 1PM there appears to be a historical afternoon low, which rises until 1:45PM. Then a strong pivot down at 3:00 PM to close.
Monday FOMC Weeks QQQ for 12/12This is a 5 minute moving weighted average pattern looking at the Mondays for the past year falling on the weeks of the FOMC meetings. I used a straight average for the first five Mondays, then weighted the last 3 Mondays falling on FOMC at 15% consecutively (7/25/22, 9/19/22, 10/31,22).
Historically, the high clocks in at the 9:40-9:45 interval, followed with a steady decline until 12:10 PM. Look for choppy boxable action from 12:25 to 2:25 with low opportunity for scalping (You should take a walk here, go to the gym, sing a song, or read a book during this time).
Finally we have a good historical liftoff with steady rise starting at 2:45PM until close.
everything could have just changedif we see downside in semiconductors and rotation between sectors tha is slower and more masured leading to slower losses in indices, and the countertrend movement breaks out into a larger rebound i would call this the beginning of a broader market recovery. the inverse is that we traverse slightly lower, and extend backwardation with resistance around estimate (we are now below) and not seeing support till lower envelope. basically the trend is threatening to reverse in short and in long term, and if sss signal stays green index could be a buy. top of channel is not out of the question.
Wednesday Moving Average Model for QQQ (No FOMC Days) for 11/30This is a 5 minute moving weighted average model of the Wednesday Intra-Day stock price for QQQ. The average looks at all Wednesdays for the past 12 months, and excludes any Wednesdays that fall on FOMC announcement days (those are a separate pattern). To calculate the initial model, I did a straight average of 11 months, then performed a moving weighted average of the last three Wednesdays of the year with each week counting towards the model at a 0.15 weight.
The Wednesday model shows the Open, High, Low, and Close amounts (averaged), as well as the moving weighted historical high of the day, and key pivot points.
Because this Wednesday precedes special announcements of GDP numbers, it is very important to always follow price action. The model may only be useful to look for key swing points, and is not a reliable prediction of future behavior.
Additionally, I have added ADX and Chop data, using the same average methodology described above. For Wednesday, expect that the afternoon will have fairly low momentum. There does appear to be a repeated large move at 2PM that is appearing in my dataset, even when excluding FOMC announcements. I would watch for the 2PM interval to make some huge move (either up or down) as this is a large, repeatable observation.
TQQQ ahead of CPI reportI'm not gonna try and guess what the CPI data will be my gut tells me its gonna be higher but at that point I'm gambling.. If you wanna gamble go to las Vegas.. treat trading like a business am I willing to give back my 6%? no.
I sold my sqqq position early so I could be cash for this CPI report, as stated in the chart I have 2 scenarios posted. If its lower I expect the market to react in a positive way. If its higher I expect the opposite. Does the market always react the way I think it should? no
ADX is not respecting this recent downtrend (classifying it as a pullback) we need the ADX to increase if we want this downtrend to continue. Also keep in mind this is a lagging indicator so it might take some time
MFI is not showing oversold yet which could mean we still have more downside (continuation)
TSV bars are continuing to increase in size as price falls (continuation)
Watch volume closely, the last fed meeting we had a ingulfing green candle then a massive dump so waif for trend direction, In my opinion I think we are very close to a temporary bottom
I'm opened minded so as always let me know what yall think.
Thanks
God bless
$TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
Here’s an update on my buy orders on TQQQ… ultimately it looks like it might be a great put selling strategy and I might go that route as I just sold a decent size natgas position, but for now I still just have buy orders for shares… 10x at each level - I may not update this idea every single day, but I will try as often as possible and of course if they start filling…
Open orders:
Buy @17.64 exp. Dec 1
Buy @ 17.48 exp. Dec 5
Buy @ 16.96 exp. Dec 6
Buy @ 17.35 exp Dec 8
Buy @ 18.11 exp. Dec 9
$TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
Ok, tonights Buy order @ 17.48 that expires Dec 5 is in…
All other open orders:
Buy @17.64 exp. Dec 1
Getting set up for the next swing... 💃🏻
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If you used the strategy I did a bunch last year and the year before that then this will look similar…
Basically every night I will be updating the new buy order for the next day… each day I will be adding 10 shares at the buy level (please modify this to your account size if you want to play, there is nothing wrong with trading one at a time until you see how the strategy works)
I will be using options at levels where I see fit but right now I’m losing out on some really great opportunities by not having these orders in place like I used to…
And if you guys haven’t seen this strategy before… you’re in for a treat… it might take a few weeks for you to see what I’m doing but once you see you’ll see how easy it is…
Always make sure to select GTC (good till cancelled) on your buy orders, and you might have to select advanced order to add an expiration date to your order.
And have fun, y’all…
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ALSO… I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
TQQQ Bull in full control?So if your not familiar with elliot wave here's a super quick summary.
There are 5 waves and after the 5th wave is complete u have a strong pullback correction which could retrace 50% - 61.8% of Wave 1 and 5
Wave 2 and 4 are corrective waves. 3 and 5 are motive
The 2nd wave can retrace up to 90% but not past the start of wave 1
The 4th wave correction is usually 23%- 38% but no more than 50%
I believe we have completed the 3rd wave and we are currently in a correction phase, Wave 4. If u look at the chart it's pretty clear we are still in a correction and i believe this is why traders get trapped because they assume this rally will continue.
I think the correction pattern we are creating is the regular flat pattern. They are mostly seen in wave 4
-Wave B = 90% of wave A (Currently 90%)
-Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave AB (Currently at 100% but with this 5 wave move we should be around the 123.6)
The regular flat is constructed as follows
(A) is a (ABC structure)
(B)is a (ABC structure)
(C)is a (5 wave structure)
As u can see we are currently on the 5 wave structure
Indicators
TSV- showing major signs of weakness
PVT- Buying pressure has stalled
MFI- Overbought (Keep in mind this can stay overbought for a while in a uptrend)
ADX- Strong uptrend (This is why i believe we have a wave 4 and 5 left)
Thanks
Godbless
WARNING WARNING WARNING TQQQAlot to cover here but this is what i'm seeing
1. Remember we are still in a downtrend on higher time frames so be careful.
2. We talked about a potential bounce in my last post and we got it.
3. As of right now we are in a wave 4 which usually has the longest lasting pullback, we are forming a bullish channel or bear flag and if we break this bottom channel the target puts us at the exact wave 5 target we talked about 2 weeks ago
4. On the 4 hr we are creating a inverse head and shoulders that is pretty obvious, if we can maintain this bullish channel up to the neck line and break our target would be $28.50, (61% fib retracement )if this occurs that would mostly like mean our wave 3 could be a wave 5 where we would get that deeper retracement.
5. Indicators ADX is telling me this long push up has lacked momentum we are below 25, (bearish) PVT has gone flat while price continued to move up (bearish)
Thanks
god bless
$TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets $TQQQ Analysis, Key levels, and Targets
Ok… So… I’m super excited to get back to one of my old strategies, but slightly modified… If you used the strategy I did a lot last year and the year before that then this will look similar…
Basically every night I will be updating the new buy order for the next day… each day I will be adding 10 shares at the buy level (please modify this to your account size if you want to play, there is nothing wrong with trading one at a time until you see how the strategy works)
Anyway, so tonights buy order for TQQQ is 17.64 x10 and this buy order expires on Dec. 1st…
Once the buy orders start filling I’ll be posting the sell order targets… but right now I don’t have a position… (I closed out my TQQQ position today for a small 6% profit)
I will be using options at levels where I see fit but right now I’m losing out on some really great opportunities by not having these orders in place like I used to…
And if you guys haven’t seen this strategy before… you’re in for a treat… it might take a few weeks for you to see what I’m doing but once you see you’ll see how easy it is… 💃🏻
Don´t like TQQQ rnHey guys, TQQQ seems to be in a very dangerous spot, moving averages are probably going to take this much lower. I've shown on the chart everything possible i could happening however, with the Russia news i think a lot of whales are going to be getting out. Weak hands. My PT is around 19-21 then perhaps consolidation before a spike in stock price, exercise caution everyone.
Let me hear it!! so i shorted TQQQ today.. not the best entry but definitely not the worst.... what do yall think am i gonna get stopped out or hit profit?? FYI i had no idea the PPI report was coming out tomorrow
Possible Regular Flat WAVE 4 • A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B terminates near the start of wave A
• Wave C generally terminates slightly beyond the end of wave A
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 90% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave AB
These are the guidelines for a regular flat
If you would like to learn more here's the link:
elliottwave-forecast.com
TQQQ ahead of fed meeting 11/2/2022Traders it's gonna be a exciting week, so start preparing now.
There is potential that Wave 4 is not complete and we could move up towards the 50 or 61 % fib level, mind you those levels are not typical in a wave 4 especially with a extended wave 3 but it can happen.
On wednesday the fed will announce the next fed rate hike, i don't see the market making big changes until then, if they announce another .75 hike (which is likely), i see the market selling off. If they announce a .50 or they talk about being less hawkish in the future i can see the market selling off initially but recovering fast just enough to break the ascending trend line or maybe retest our support at the $20 range. This will liquidate long positions and open the door for big money.
Now obviously i'm not against idea of new lows i think it's very possible but it's important to always have a plan B, If we start getting rejected off the ascending trend line with good volume i'll be looking to short. If we break above the neck line with good volume i'll be looking to long. Volume is critical here, if you see large candles but lack volume there's a good chance its a fake out.
If yall have a different opinion i would love to hear it.
thanks God bless
“If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!”
― Benjamin Franklin
Take profits, Prepare for possible BULL trapwww.tradingview.com So just a friendly reminder that we are still in a bear market so be extremely careful trading against the trend! I closed my long position a little early to manage risk.
This is what i'm seeing, the last few large candle sticks have lacked volume behind it, which means we lack BIG money.
TSV showing signs of weakness and bearish divergence
MFI has went over sold and in the past this marked a pivot point to lower lows
Let me be clear i can't predict the market all i can do is prepare for it.
The area we are in a happens to be a strong resistance are, we also had a very strong run up without any pullbacks which concerns me. I can't say forsure if we will see new lows but at the very least a good pullback to previous support which is $19.50 area
Elliot wave calls for another wave down but elliot is not always perfect you have to adapt to the chart and find where u are. We Could have completed the wave 5 which means we could see high highs, to possibly the 50% or 61 fib levels, but for now i am keeping the wave 4 narrative
Happy trading and god bless
I will also share how i came up with the elliot wave narrative
www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
When will it stop???? BULL OR BEAR??1.We are oversold on the 4hr
2. Bullish descending wedge forming
3.Expecting a small bounce to the $19.68
4.Expecting a rejection@ $19.68
5. Hard downward movement to wave 3 @ $15.77
5.Begin wave 4 to the 38% fib level @ $24.85 www.tradingview.com
