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TLT trade ideas

TLT - Are negative rates coming next? TLT chart is one of a kind. After reaching the 100% price target in the midst of the COVID crisis back in early March 2020, the bond bulls seemed to have found a major support @ the $158-$159 price level. The major trendline coming from December 08 has had several rejections before its final breakout in mid of July 2020. My next price target is @$198. Also, it is very important to point out the weekly divergence in the RSI which suggests the bulls are back in the game. Given the current economic/political scenario - negative interest rates might be looking closer than ever...
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Abald0
Wychoff re accumulation pattern potentially forming. Potentially a falling bullish wedge forming on TLT. The pattern also appears to be playing out a Wychoff re accumulation pattern which makes sense given that there is the largest short position ever on the bond market. All of the banks have been buying bonds and QE is by nature bullish for bonds as the fed are buying up supply. Lots of these shorts will be in at around 160-165 and so a huge short squeeze could be about to happen.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by tomolovegrove
TLT LONG AND STRONG I think rates are going lower, the U.S. could even possibly try negative rates. In all honesty, it seems more probable than rates going higher (in the short term at least). Simply due to the fact that consumer lending is depreciating at a very rapid rate (especially now when UE benefits have been decreased along with stimulus "talks" resulting in no stimulus ). In a debt based economy consumer lending is what is most important for our financial and monetary system to stay afloat. With no lending.. It makes sense that "they" would drop rates, to encourage lending growth, and increase the value of the bonds all "they" bought. The craziest thing to me is how big the BS of the fed has got in such a short amount of time (added 220 years of debt in 10 months so far... WOW). Not to mention, there is also a historical amount of short interest on the bond market in 2020, especially on TLT. In terms of where we are in the "markets as a whole" .. the only thing that isn't in a bubble is the world reserve currency . I can completely agree that bonds are overbought, but no where near as overbought as the NASDAQ for example. I believe we have at least one more leg in the bond market.. mainly due to the fact that QE removes liquidity, & a historical short float on bonds; as a result, I genuinely do expect a "penny stock" like short squeeze in the very near future in the bond market. As the bond king would say, We are about to go "suborbital" GL!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by UnknownUnicorn7567260
2
TLT D1: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -24/7 uptime so constant updates TLT D1: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. Tagged as SHORT because short-term I expect more losses before reversal (BULLS) at 150/155. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: TLT D1 market overview/outlook ::: revised/updated outlook ::: accumulation in progress right now ::: expecting more short term losses ::: going into US Election Day ::: HOWEVER buying LOW is THE BEST ::: INVESTMENT into US Election Day ::: 150/155 best reload zone BULLS ::: BULLS should get ready to BUY LOW ::: from range lows / premium level ::: we are setting up for 15%+ PUMP ::: it's a slow process into US election ::: currently stay out / wait for better price ::: then get ready to SHIFT to BULL MODE ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: BUY/HOLD setup for patient traders ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9/Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BEARS/downside ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS/15% GAINS
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ProjectSyndicate
2
OPENING (IRA): TLT NOVEMBER 20TH 160/170/172 JADE LIZARD... for a 2.64/contract credit. Notes: A bet that TLT doesn't move much with no upside risk (the credit received exceeds the max risk of the two-wide short call vertical) and a downside break even of 157.36 (the short put strike minus the credit received). Additionally, even if it blows through the long call strike at 172, the credit received exceeds the max risk of the call side by .64, so I could still make money if that happens. Will look to take profit at 50% max.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
2
TRADE IDEA: TLT SHORT CALL DIAGONALWith (a) the Federal Reserve telegraphing "lower for longer," but (b) not much lower, given the practical limitations of cutting rates from here; (c) overhead resistance at ~172.50; and (d) the fact that the Fed interest rates will hike rates (modestly or otherwise) "at some point" going forward, I'm looking to short the 20 year + maturity treasury exchange-traded-fund TLT, preferably on strength back toward the 172.50 level. While I can naturally take a short position via covered put, short via short call vertical, long put vertical, or long put diagonal,* my preference is for a setup that will give me some flexibility to roll short options out for additional time and credit if my timing is off and/or I want to re-up with a short option out in time after a given leg is pulled off at or near worthless. Consequently, I'm opting for a short call diagonal here with a slight twist: laddering out the short calls and buying fairly cheap longs equal to the number of contracts in my ladder. Here, the back month longs are going for .30 a pop, so I'm giving up some credit to define risk and/or make it "street legal" in a cash secured environment, where most brokers won't allow you to sell naked shorts, and for cheaper than I could potentially do a covered put. That being said, this setup isn't "cheap": buying power effect: 96.10; max profit on fill: 2.97, which is 3.09% ROC, assuming everything expires worthless, and I don't re-up any short legs. Naturally, the ROC%-age will be better if everything expires worthless, and I can re-up with the short call a couple of additional times. The November short call's paying 1.06; the December, 1.34; and the January, 1.47, so it's conceivable I could milk another 2.00 in credit out of the thing for around 5.00 total over the life of the setup, assuming I don't have to roll broken calls out in time. Alternatives: (a) Buy the January 21st '22 160P (b) Sell the January 21st '22 160C ... for a 3.25 credit at the mid price. This creates a static -100 delta short position. (c) Sell the November 20th 159P ... for a 2.06 credit. Manage like a covered put, but without being in the stock. This setup should be way cheaper to get into, at least on margin; it's likely a prohibited setup in a cash secured environment for most brokers. * -- The long put diagonal is generally my go-to when I want to take a short position, but want time for it to work out or to reduce cost basis over time. Unfortunately, long-dated back month high delta long puts were unsatisfactorily illiquid to do this, although maybe I'll have better luck pricing things out during live market hours.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by NaughtyPines
5