TLT ready to take off! Massive shorts in bond market. Given the current condition I think TLT is ready for 80% move to the upside and stock market to about to go through very rough liquidation imo. DXY is likely to hit all time high as well I think.
TLT trade ideas
TLT rocket ready for Powell's launch sequenceWhile the bond market blood bath may scare some, I believe it is an opportunity to catch a fly with chopsticks Mr. Miagi style.
The narrative that bonds are selling off because of inflation fears is oversold hype and Guggenheim's CIO Scott Minerd and PIMCO's head of short-term management Jerome Schnieder agree.
www.guggenheiminvestments.com
www.youtube.com
Inflation is transient and with a liquidity supernova descending upon the markets, this will push short-term rates down leaving fixed-income investors chasing long-term (duration) bonds. The Fed itself will likely introduce some type of Twist style program expanding purchases of duration bonds. Add in the upcoming SLR exemption expiration and the historical long-term trend in the decline in the US10Y and the case for lower rates becomes very sexy.
Yellen is going to be dumping $1.1T into money markets.
www.bloomberg.com
SLR exclusion exemption may not be extended. Democrats are demanding higher banking restrictions. No SLR extension creates a bottleneck for O/N repos and warehousing.
www.ft.com
There is also a strong technical case as it is oversold and we've had a very bullish engulfing reversal candle. This looks primed to explode any day now. Additionally, the US10Y looks overbought with the classic evening star doji.
Minerd believes rates US10Y will hit -.5% by 2022. While I think that is a little on the extreme end of the range, I do believe 1.15% to 1.25% in the near term is realistic with .5%.
Disclaimer: At the time of writing I do hold longer-dated expiry ITM TLT calls.
TLT Support at old POC around 138.50 on the Volume ProfileHave to go back to early 2020 to find support at the Point of Control in TLT around 138.50
We have Topped the Stock Market!Clear Reversal in the Bond market, Buying Volume along with an Almost Full Hammer indicating a very likely possibility of a top in the stock market.
The Buying Volume this week was high and as strong as the Buying Volume Just BEFORE the March 2020 Crash.
After such a long run-up , it is about time we have that MAJOR Correction.
Short the Market, Long the Bond Market
20 Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT): Price direction estimates.My views what is happening in the bond market, what to look out for in the coming trading session
The 20 year Treasury Bond prices fell below the long-term price channel in the H4 price chart at around 147.40 support level on Feb 13, 2021, and recently bounced off 137.40 on Feb 26, 2021, indicated on the chart below, the same day we saw the sell-off and drop-in the stock market.
The closing price of the bond market Friday's session was just below 142.40, a critical level tested in the past and could be tested in future trades. The last H4 price candle closed in red, but relatively small compared to the previous H4 bull candle with a reasonable volume which indicates buyers are still holding on from the bounce we saw at 137.40 and 139.90.
I think 142.40 and 141.40 support lines are important if it's going to continue up. If it holds above 142.40, we could be looking at retesting the 144.90 resistance line at the bottom of the price channel and 146.40/147.40.
If it fails to get back above 142.40, 139.90 and 137.40 could be a potential support area.
9-13-9 buy for bondsa nice 9-13-9 buy signal on TLT daily. This signals a good trade for TLT and also signals a good period ahead for the stock market.
TLTBeautiful close to the week, definitely wasn't expecting a green close on the weekly. Still in a downtrend for now but I like it long here for a bounce.
TLT short Just the meat! I'm not here for likes! I'm not your mother or your brother!
Clearly TLT is still dropping on the monthly.
$130 incoming!
No end of the world insurance yet!
Goodluck.
๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ๐ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: $TLT Weekly. Capitulation!๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ๐ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: $TLT Weekly. Huge volume this week and hammering the 200ema. Could see a sharp bounce back from oversold conditions
$TNX $ZB_F $ZN_F $SPY $SPX $ES_F $VIX $QQQ $NDX $NQ_F $GLD $GDX $DXY #Bonds #Stocks #Trading
INFLECTION POINT -- Oil Reversal to Bounce TLT?Insane correlation here. Looking at last year's convergence, it took 66 days & 44 bars to be at new ATH on TLT.
US Equity Market could bottom out soonTLT
From a post view to analyze the market these days, "everybody" knows from the media that the reason is "fear of hyperinflation"
But how much inflation is high enough and when does this correction ends?
jump into my conclusion : the correction is ending soon.
Why?
there are 5 reasons to look for :
1 correction was triggered by diving T-note, looking at TLT, since the broke out from a 2B at early Feb, it accelerated, but approaching pre-pandenmic level.
2 raw material price on the massive run since last year, Copper and Crude oil had their times, but is approaching previous resistance
3 looking at nasdaq, 2Hr and 4Hr had made new lows but with MACD divergence
4 catalyst could be the freezing weather that send crude to the sky and the priced in stim bill, with dead line approaching, there still a big uncertainty in this, so could triggers some risk aversion
5 Nasdaq is approaching 12/18 quad witching support
When Commodity Trading Advisors Short Treasuries, You Short TooKeep shorting this junk. Inflation is here whether you like it or not.
TLTHaving fun yet? I'm not even going to act like I know what's going to happen next. But I am in some May calls. Support is holding and today felt like a blow off top in rates. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Parabolic Up Move In TLT?At this point charting does not matter so much with the algo pushing Bonds down in that after hours. At some point the algo will beed to rewind their position and go Long. It might take a sell off in the Equity market to cause a rotation into Bonds to force a Short squeeze.
TLT should see some buying soonThe 20y bond sell off has dropped into support. We should see some buying here to bring yields back down. If the buying comes in the market should bounce. If however this 618 level does not hold and bonds continue to sell off things could get ugly. Important level to watch IMO.
Bond yields have lost critical supportYields spiked past their March 2020 highs overnight. (This chart is inverted). Many believe this will be a sign of hyperinflation. To me, it is a sign that the FED has been amputated of its second last magic power (ie. moving to negative rates) and therefore they are losing control of the financial markets. If they want to keep this shenanigan going, they likely have one final weapon in their arsenal which is to buy up stocks *directly*. Such a move would have huge socio-economic and political ramifications. So, will they do it? Or will they finally let mother nature take its course and restore balance to this mangled beast we still call a stock market?
With respect to the question of hyperinflation, I agree that it will hit hard, but *only* the essentials of life: core inflation. In general, we will remain in a deflationary environment until all the bandages unravel one day and the whole system resets to heal itself from the bones out.
TLTLow risk entry here with a stop under $139 (March 2020 low). I'm long and looking to add tomorrow at any price under today's close.
Swing Treasuries Up? A Contrarian TradeI like the gap down and reversal in today's candle along with this happening at the 5% lower envelope like back in June 2020. Betting long term interest rates cool off a little here. It's a ballsy play from the prior downard movement but I like the risk to reward setup.
