SMCI (complete reboot)Just initiated my first long entry, as this stock has completely wiped out it's parabolic run as anticipated, if this level is broken i am looking to add at 18$ then at 10$, for a long term holding position.
SMCI trade ideas
SMCI Down to $300 by NovemberAs part of my market crash thesis where we see a crash into October/November, SMCI should hit $300 in Q4.
SMCIholding 49.70 heading to 66
an upward trend in the prices of an industry's stocks or the overall rise in broad market indices, characterized by high investor confidence
SMCI Is it a buy after -35% dip and the leave of their auditors?Super Micro Computer is oversold on all timeframes and is approaching that level even on 1W (RSI = 35.160, MACD = -7.190, ADX = 44.214). The reason for the -35% daily collapse is of course the resignation of their auditors, Ernst & Young, which have raised concerns over SMCI's governance since late July. News have even hit the market that there are fears of delisting. Now fundamentally, even though the street has seen its fair share of accounting frauds in the past, those make up only a tiny minority.
Normally when such pessimistic news hit the market, long term investors should be viewing the dynamics objectively. Is it worth buying despite all the negatives? A quick answer can be given by just looking at the technicals. Any high cap stock that falls roughly -75% from its All Time High (ATH) is objectively a great long term investment opportunity.
For SMCI in particularly it has almost lost -75% of its value in 8 months, with the company absorbing almost any negative news there could be out there. The price is right now at $33.00 with its 1W MA200 currently sitting at $22.95 (and rising), which is the long term support since April 20th 2020. Before that trendline, there is the HL 2 to consider that started on July 5th 2022. In the meantime, the 1W RSI is testing sideways the S1 Zone, a buy level that is holding since July 2015.
It has to be said that the -75% decline is SMCI strongest within such period of time, with the most recent before it being during the U.S.-China trade wars (October 1st 2018 at -68.30%). That collapse recovered in 6 months as it reached its 0.786 Fibonacci level.
If SMCI announces soon their new auditing firm and calm the market about their practices, there is a strong probability to see the price testing the current 0.786 Fib (TP = 90.00).
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SMCI Bull run overWe ended the fifth impulsive wave a lot higher and the ongoing collapse is nowhere near ending. The bull market is well and truly over for SMCI.
Trade the charts, not the news. I did bring this to your attention 3 weeks before the news of potential accounting fraud became apparent.
I did warn bag holders not to buy the dip - look my related post. Instead I got hate and dislikes for my post. It's like people don't want to hear the truth. Don't love anything that won't love you back, speculative assets included.
The truth is that risk management is key to preserving wealth. I was against buying the dip, there is a potential long trade to be had at way lower levels. However, in light of the accounting issues this company is in deep trouble and people are fighting to get to the exit door.
Not financial advice, just my thoughts. Do what's best for you, if you want to buy the dip then good luck to you.
This ballon looks like it’s running out of airBe very careful buying the dip on SMCI, there is literally not floor underneath.
There is hardly any support beyond where it’s sitting at the moment. If it fails to bounce here we are talking a drop to the $300 level.
The trend is your friend, I’m afraid that remains to the downside.
Do what’s best for you. This is not financial advice, just my thoughts.
SMCI $60 EASY THEN MUCH MORE.. READ THE IDEA. pls.... SMCI IS THE ONE I AM BETTING WILL POP THE MOST. The delays in filling are nothing more than growing pains. Read this report entirely, so that you get the idea. MSCI fundamentals are as strong as ever.
The rest is secondary, it is sales and revenue all that matters, the delays have been explained. The endorsement is NVDA, the super star of companies. The Hindenburg Report ruffled feathers, the feathers of limelight seekers at the SEC, the 3 minutes of fame. A nothing burger in the end. Meanwhile, what a gift. Finally a lotto ticket with great odds.
SMCI Super Micro - regulatory filing this and that, what maters is how good their products are and how much they have sold. The answers to these to premises, is a lot. And a lot means return on investment. The delay filling is likely the product of extreme difficulty in reporting compliance. Did you know this same issue is facing thousands of companies around the world. It seems that the global IQ has declined, hehe, no no for real, and number crunchers need to be extremely analytical, the things is that analyticals make much more in other professions, and what is left is deficient.
I know full well that SMCI will file what it needs to file, but I also know their products are second to none, and that means caching for the shares.
The background and preamble:
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is delaying its filing of the annual 10-K report due to several issues:
Internal Control Assessment: SMCI has stated that additional time is needed for management to complete its assessment of the design and operating effectiveness of its internal controls over financial reporting as of June 30, 2024
Accounting and Financial Reporting Concerns: A report by Hindenburg Research alleged accounting manipulation, including premature revenue recognition and undisclosed related-party transactions. These allegations have raised concerns about the company's financial practices and contributed to the delay
Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: The delay has attracted regulatory attention, including a non-compliance notice from Nasdaq, which requires SMCI to file the report or submit a compliance plan within 60 days from the notice date. Additionally, there is an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into the company
These factors have collectively contributed to SMCI's decision to delay filing its annual report.
Key Dates
Original due date: August 29, 2024
Non-compliance notice date: September 17, 2024
60-day deadline: Approximately November 16, 2024 (60 days from the notice date)
Maximum potential extension: Approximately February 25, 2025 (180 days from the original due date).
SMCI
Potential Accounting Issues
The delay comes amid allegations of accounting irregularities:
On August 27, 2024, short-seller Hindenburg Research published a report accusing SMCI of "glaring accounting red flags" and engaging in a "fraudulent revenue recognition scheme"
Hindenburg claimed SMCI was prematurely recording revenue for equipment that could not be delivered or installed, and booking revenue for faulty or incomplete products
I beleive that SMCI is growing so fast, and that massive growth ia generating issues in the process, issues that many companies face, however, in the case of SMCI considering Hindenburgs Opportunistic take on markets, saw SMCI and NVDA at a fractal pivot point and the took advantage, however, as SMCI is an illiquid stock, especially before the split, they had to put another bullet to tranquilize the herd and now cause it to come back and buy all the shares bach much faster giving them no change to adjust. Like what just happened to tesla for example.
All these accusations lead to ..... Regulatory Scrutiny.
Regulatory Scrutiny
The filing delay has attracted regulatory attention:
SMCI received a notification from Nasdaq on September 17, 2024 stating that the company is not in compliance with Nasdaq listing rule 5250(c)(1), which requires timely filing of periodic reports with the SEC
On September 26, 2024, it was reported that the U.S. Department of Justice had initiated an investigation into the company
So here is where we are.... SMCI is the working partner for NVDA and Charles Liang seems like a smart man. The SMCI servers sell super well.
I beleved SMCI is a super clean entity, and that they will comply with fillings, but what is much more relevant to me is cash made, and cash made with SMCI seems huge.
10/30/24 - $smci - Quick comment on mkt implications10/30/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SMCI
Quick comment on mkt implications
- trick, no treat for smci
so here's the treat ex. scmi...
- an nvda top 5 customer has implications for nvda that probably keep it in a short-term holding period (upside "capped" vs. other mag 7 that report e.g. meta and msft - beats - tonight)
- there is SO much demand for nvda chips that even if a top 5 drops out, u guys realize msft, meta, amzn, googl, elon... will take 100% of that demand
- so what happens here is that the mkt will probably "overly" reward a meta or msft beat bc the flows/ implications of index higher rotate less incrementally to nvda and chips (even tho you should be buying tsm, avgo as well as nvda)... and to the mega/ googl/ msft complex. this means index higher.
thought it's important to mention.
V
IS SUPER MICRO COMPUTERS ($SMCI) FINALLY BOTTOMING?! IS SUPER MICRO COMPUTERS ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) FINALLY BOTTOMING?!
3 REASONS WHY:
1⃣ We have DIVERGENCE on the Weekly Chart
2⃣ It's almost a "High Five Setup"
3⃣ Take a BREAK and find out by watching. 👇
Stay tuned for more!🔔
Like ❤️ Follow 🤳 Share 🔂
Will Super Micro finally get back on track after the insane negative sentiment and news articles?!
Not financial advice.
Incoming 40% correction for Super Micro Computer, Inc.On the above 4 day chart price action has rallied 270% since January. And 3000% !!! since June 2022. It is somewhat unfortunate to see so many long ideas at the moment.
Motley Fool June 30th:
“1 Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Before It Soars 70%, According to Loop Capital”
“Loop Capital thinks Supermicro is going to $1,500”
Madness.
Why bearish?
Broken market structure. It is very clear to see, price action has broken the last higher low AND confirmed it as resistance. You can see this more clearly on the daily chart below.
Double top bearish divergence. On the 3 week chart below price action prints a RSI lower high (red arrows) with a higher high in price action. On this time frame an important trend shift is indicated.
Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
1 day broken market structure
3 week bearish divergence
SMCI due for a run?With earnings roughly 24 hours away, SMCI could be worth a watch.
They will often drop around earnings and then put on a nice run, but with the RSI and MACD both looking like they are at a reasonable area as well as the crazy ongoing demand for chips SMCI might be worth a watch.
I'll probably take a punt on it, but with a super tight stop loss in case it heads downwards. Could use a conditional buy order to enter on a turn-around trail. eg if it goes up x% then buy.
Either way, looks like some upside if they can sort out their issues.
Earnings In 2 WeeksI think this one could run -
1. Looks like we about to get a buy rating on the weekly prior to earnings.
2. The volumne gap goes all the way up to $75
3. Open gaps up around $51, $66, and $85.
4. Looks like an inverse head and shoulders.
5. Will start slowly adding lotto calls
6. 11/06/2024 after market ER?
7. Perhaps they fix their 10k filing
8. Short squeeze imminent?
9. I would love it to get to $40-$44 before buying (may start adding this week despite)
Lemme know what you think - GLTA.
Riding the AI WaveSuper Micro Computer is building strong bullish momentum, with a gap forming at the $45.00 level. A break through the $67.10 resistance level would confirm further upward movement, pushing the stock toward the daily resistance at $101.40, and eventually the weekly resistance at $122.45. With a favorable 6.21 risk-to-reward ratio, this trade offers a compelling opportunity to capture significant upside while maintaining a stop-loss at $35.70 to manage risk.
As the demand for high-performance computing, AI, and cloud infrastructure continues to grow, SMCI’s leadership in these sectors strengthens its bullish case. The company’s consistent innovation in server and data center solutions positions it well to capture future growth, supporting its trajectory toward the $122.45 target.
NASDAQ:SMCI
SMCI quick tradeSMCI giving us opportunity for quick long today, with market correction to the upside
it's out time to use it.
SL < 44.6
TP1 47.2-47.5
After target 1 reach, i will sell most shares and swing the rest for 59$ area and move SL to entry price.
$SMCIlike the support and volume here, and we have fib 0,5% close to the SL i will wait for a 1h candel under my SL
$SMCI Sneaky MOVERNASDAQ:SMCI has lots of size buyers coming in for this weeks expiration. The stock has has tremendous technical damage and is just drifting. The buying is indicating that someone knows something that retail doesn’t. Technically, if it can get above the supply at 149, we can see a spike to 50.61 with is last weeks highs and this current months highs. Trade this name with caution.
SMCI at a Critical Support: Will Buyers Return?In the daily time frame, SMCI is approaching a key support zone, highlighted in green. This area previously acted as strong resistance, with several attempts to break above it. Although the price hasn’t returned to this zone yet, I believe once it does, buyers could step in again. This level has proven significant before, and if the price revisits this support, it could present a potential buying opportunity. Keep an eye on this zone, as it may signal a shift in momentum if buyers come back. This version reflects that the price hasn’t yet revisited the support zone.
SMCI RISKY LONG I am looking to enter at range 41.5$-44$ with SL at low of the current structure.
will aim for 59$-60$ area
* must be carful with earning around the corner
will update when it reach these areas, and decide the best action depends on market overall movement
SMCI: Stock Split with Chart UpdateSMCI had a stock split, so I have to update this chart.
Light Fundamental:
It is a stock called SMCI (or Super Mico Computer). It is a US company that makes super powerful computers and servers. The world needs servers to help run things like big websites, apps, and AI. The stock price fell by half. So, it is selling at a discount for what it is really worth. So, it is a good chance to buy it.
Technicals:
Gartley-like pattern
diagonal support
engulfing bullish pattern with d3 volume and volume confirmation
a-b-c completion at a 78.2% fib pullback
Entry is above the weekly engulfing bullish candle at 475.44.
Target is, tentatively, 1500.
Note: preparing for either an election rally or a Christmas rally in stocks
50 and over a new start of consolidation with a breakout Macd is approaching 0, still higher, and other candles are continuing. There is no sign of fade or slowdown; it is just ready to distribute. I am still very bullish based on technicals, price sentiment, and value. With this still priced low, I could see 50-60 in the short term. Stochastics are not high, either. They will reset, but I don't think it is likely yet.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Time to buy in after a -70% drop!Since our first analysis a while ago, we've been inching closer and closer to our target area on $SMCI. Since then, we've seen a price drop of 40%, which is far from irrelevant, with the stock retracing nearly 70% from its peak. We're witnessing a clear and recurring pattern here—what we call the "staircase to hell." Each push to a level has been met with rejection, which is exactly why we see a buying opportunity forming.
We are now making our first bid here as a market entry. This is intended to be a swing trade that we plan to carry into 2025, with a target of reaching previous highs again. Therefore, we're not worried about getting a "perfect" entry within 1-2% but instead setting a DCA bid a bit lower for an optimal position if NASDAQ:SMCI comes down further.
Below the market entry, there's an important Fibonacci cluster that combines the 200% target of Wave C, the 78.6% retracement of Wave (2), and a target for Wave ((v)), all aligning well. With these multiple levels coinciding, there's a strong possibility we will see the price reach this zone. If so, we’ll place another bid to buy more shares.
If NASDAQ:SMCI manages to flip the first resistance, we expect it to move up quickly. As we always say, patience is the key to successful swing trading—don’t let greed or fear cloud your decisions 🤝.
