PARAA trade ideas
VIAC LONG, bull-case vs. bear-case for next two week retrace
OBV bottoming, ricocheting off lower levels. Bear-case, breaks momentum support and continues lower. Watching out for 44, MAX PAIN. IF OBV holds the line this week, STRONG BUY.
MACD-M approaching daily negative value quickly. This is going to be the reversal when touches 0.0, IMO. Highlighted in yellow circle, key area to watch. Bear-case, if follows thru with negative switch BUY to neutral. IF MACD-M never touches daily negative value, STRONG BUY.
Most telling indicator is where the drop-stopped after Hwang’s Archegos(1) bomb went off. As displayed on the daily chart, bouncing off the support from March 2020's low to before the Hwang 'artificial' rip upwards(2) that critics are speculating on the validity. My point is Viacom is not GME, yes it was exponentially pumpd but it's a MAJOR MEDIA CONGLOMERATE(3). The positive potential is beginning to outweigh the downside.
Ideas:
-MM wants to dig the knife in deeper, allowing the price to run upwards, and violently, would add more pain to Hwang being forced to liquidate in the 40s.
-Stock buyback seems like a valid option for the company. As they begin their streaming (Paramount+) (debuted MAR4) making a big bet on themselves would show the market they are ready to compete.
-AAPL and other big dogs not currently in the streaming scene have to be considering VIAC at these price levels. Viacom has been around for a while, and with Sumner Redstone's passing last August(4) his children, Brent and Shari, are running the business. They're not the tycoons their father was..
-Just because some greedy monster like Hwang exercised some bad judgement, overleveraged himself and pumpd the stock, doesnt take away from the value and company's performance.
1 - finance.yahoo.com
2 - www.latimes.com
3 - marajay21.wordpress.com
4 - en.wikipedia.org
Viacom not believing these levels, BULL RUN incoming..VERY ROUGH deal VIAC suffered last week by external factors.
Drop stopped roughly right at a support line from the bottom of the March 2020 low. Declining sell-off volume hints that the SELL BLOCKS finishing up. IF the sell-off stops this will inform the market of VIAC's exposure and carve out the bottom support. FV 60s.
Parabolic ArcVIAC has passed the .5 and .618 fib levels like a falling knife.
I heard there is news associated with the decline, but I do not think VIAC was destined for a $200 price tag either?? Arcs may go up for a long time before falling back to earth.
Arcs are long term patterns and can be volatile until they find a resting place. As a rule, they do not "zoom" up like they did on the first go around either. But every security is different.
No recommendation
Parabolic Arc chart patterns are generated when steep rise in prices are caused by irrational buying and intense speculation. The arc can be volatile in the exhaustion stages. Irrational buying in the public generates a strong rally to push prices vertically, followed by a steep sell off. Parabolic arc is a reversal pattern and has a very predictable outcome. Although they are predictable, they are relatively difficult to trade since the market sentiment is bullish and may be relatively tough to point reversals to trade. I stay away until the calm after the storm is over, but we are all different.
Most arc patterns in a strong security fall 50 to 79%, many fall more and some fall less. The average is between 50 to 62%.
Oversold on RSI.
You can often see an arc more clearly on the 3 year weekly time frame. It does look as if a bottom may trying to form. Time will tell.
VIAC (long) after great fallFrom March 23rd to 26th, #VIAC fell 52% due to Archegos capital management's margin call. The main battles were for the $ 45 level. This sale has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. In case the price exceeds $ 49.5, the sale is over and take a long position. Stop Loss: $ 42
ViacomCBS - LONG - Notable volume with PVSRA on the 200EMAI see great support with the notable volume on the 200/233EMA area.
Price will probably continue on the bullish trend despite Bill Hwang's actions.
My EP is $45.
Thank you Archegos!!!!$$$Good times await after a massive price plunge related to liquidation of Archegos positions.
Buy at $46 and sell at $92.00!
Make sure to put a stop loss order in to be on the safe side.
VIAC liquidation oversold levels, TP $61VIAC part of the forced liquidation event, MS announced yesterday there are no more blocks available for sale. Positioning today in $60 calls Apr and May.
$61 8EMA on the 1 day.
DSCA and VIACOM recoveryAs we all know, Discovery and Viacom got crushed with the margin call that Archegos suffered past week. This fall has nothing to do with fundamentals or something that matters to the firms, is simply the fact that banks were forced to sell these stocks at discount. We can expect a quick recovery, perhaps not to the ATH, but a pretty decent recovery.
VIAC - 16 April $50 call looking real attractive right now16 April $50 call options trading around $2.60 now... might be a decent time to buy some.
Archegos Capital: The Death of a Beached WhaleWhat is a Whale, and Why is Archegos Capital One?
Archegos Capital is what's called a "whale," meaning it's a big enough hedge fund that it can drive prices higher all by itself. Since a lot of traders buy "momentum" stocks, whales can make money by manipulating prices higher and then selling to "dumb money" that buys momentum stocks without regard to fundamentals on the assumption that the stock's momentum is some kind of meaningful signal about the company's health.
Archegos seems to have been doing this for a while now, and it's been doing it largely with borrowed money. Archegos had about 500% more money in the market than it actually has in assets. (We call this 5x leverage.) This money was concentrated in just a few highly overvalued media and Chinese stocks-- ViacomCBS, Discovery Media, Baidu, Tencent, VIPshop, GSX, Farfetch, IQIYI, FUTU, and UP Fintech.
What is a Margin Call? How Archegos Got Beached
Lately, the winds have been shifting and traders have been abandoning overheated "momentum" stocks in favor of defensive value plays. Archegos has been feeling the pain. Then ViacomCBS-- one of Archegos's largest holdings-- announced that it would issue a bunch of new shares. This caused the stock price to drop. The sudden sharp reduction in Archegos's value put it over its borrowing limit and caused its lenders issue a "margin call," demanding that it sell shares to cover its debts.
Because Archegos's holdings were so concentrated, its selling triggered a chain reaction. The prices of its main holdings plummeted, causing more margin calls and more forced selling. As a result, Archegos Capital has lost some $33bn in the last 3-4 trading days. The unwind has been spectacular to watch. Its main holdings are down 15-50%. (Archegos also apparently had short positions in the S&P 500, which is why the S&P shot higher as the fund unwound those positions in the last hour of trading Friday.) Rumor has it that Archegos may still have some $20bn of positions left to unwind this week, including a couple billion in ViacomCBS.
Archegos CEO Bill Hwang is an evangelical Christian (trustee of Fuller Theological Seminary, among other things) who publicly attributes his investing success to his faith. He also pleaded guilty in 2012 to charges of insider trading. He reminds me a lot of ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, another whale fund leader who talks a lot about faith. I hope Cathie's investors are taking notes.
Along with the GameStop fiasco, this is the sort of activity you see at major market turning points. What has worked for years suddenly stops working. The tide goes out, leaving bad bets and price manipulation schemes exposed on the beach.
As the Momentum Tide Goes Out, Beware Leverage and Concentration Risk
The Archegos story dramatically illustrates two different points.
First, the market is losing faith in "momentum" as a technical signal, at least until prices correct quite a bit.
And second, leverage and concentration pose a significant market risk. Market crashes require forced selling, and forced selling requires leverage. Overall margin debt is now at an all-time high of $813 billion, according to FINRA data. That's up from $479 billion this time last year. That means that risk is high, and we could see more interesting margin call events if hedge funds fail to learn their lesson from this.
VIACPlanning to hold as a growth play, will be buying around 48 and holding to the clear price "consolidation" areas at 54, 64 and 71.
Starting with caution, other patterns show further drop so will be looking for further long positions.
Main reason for buying is I'm trying to get in front of the inevitable hype that will come to this stock once people realize where it can go in the future with streaming and their already loyal customers for decades. I personally believe this is a great price for a company that will be here for a long time into the future.
Other various reasons for buying include: Bounced off of a clear long term support line on the weekly chart that I have not attached but you can very easily check yourself. The RSI is looking nice on mostly every interval. Moving averages are doing all kinds of things so I broke it down like this:
1. On the 1hr Chart it shows a bearish death cross but the price is bouncing off that weekly resistance.
2. On daily chart it shows the price bouncing off of the 200MA two days straight.
3. On the weekly it shows the price bouncing off the 200MA and another bounce at the weekly line.
4. Weekly also shows a potential bullish cross of the 50 and 200 MA in the near-ish future.
I added the FIB as a way to help me find a few of the buying spots I might choose and it's based off of the highest/lowest points between Mar 15th and the 26th.
Starting stop loss is 43.20 (10%).
Starting goal target is 54.
I am not a financial advisor so I am not telling you to buy, do whatever you want with your money but this is my pretty basic strategy on $VIAC.
Viacom $VIAC TA: Hidden Bullish Div. on Daily Timescale This is my second post on why viacom could be a great Long at these levels
VIAC - Back to the ground
"What goes up, must come down, falling feels like flying till you hit the ground."
60% Weekly DD, Back to Trend Support, horizontal, uptrend line, downtrend line, 200 (D, W)
Potential Bounce.
$VIAC at Key Support with New Supportive Narrative EmergingNow that the news is out that 'tiger cub' Hwang was margin called last week, blowing up several stocks, including VIAC, expect institutional money to step in this week and pick up the pieces.
Reversal Day Trade I took on $VIAC for a +20% gain! Strategy, InThis is my first ever youtube video. Thanks for your support, if you would like me to make more videos like this in the future please like and subscribe to my channel!
VIAC entry zoneVIAC is looking slightly bullish here on the 4hr Time Frame.
Its resting on the 78% Fib level
BlueWave is on the verge of giving a buy signal (green dot)
RSI is Oversold.
I would let the stock play out a little bit before getting in.
I don't recommend catching a falling knife.
VIAC (NASDAQ) - Be Careful for bearishGreetings
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Pra Trading :
- Please care for Money Management
- Have a good psychology
- Do not be hurry to open position and do not do nothing if u see opportunity
- Evaluate and upgrade your trading plan
Execution Strategy :
- Know what you want to buy, see the Fundamental
- Decide that you are on investing or speculating
- Consider what your strategy based on Investing/Speculating
- Make Road Map Of Your Trading Plan
- Decide
a. Entry strategy
b. Cut loss
c. Target of Profit
Post Trading :
a. Do not be sad if you loss or do not be very happy if you win
b. Just become a normal without emotion, Do not put emotion into your trading
c. Evaluate your trading
d. Keep on Learning
e. Be Humble
Idea :
VIAC (NASDAQ) - Be Careful for bearish
