Weekly Implied Volatility Move Is 437.50 From the options chain on 10-11 exp. Its telling me prices wants 437.50 by end of week.
Pop to the 420 and a move lower is possible before the rally hits.
If my pink level breaks, were so screwed lmao
MSFT trade ideas
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments
Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September
The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant.
CEO Satya Nadella stated
“Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.”
This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant.
If you need a quick summary, here are three main points:
1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period.
2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025.
3. 👨👩👧👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results.
Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter.
Overview of today’s insights:
- New segmentation.
- Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview.
- Key earnings call highlights.
- Future areas to monitor.
1. New Segmentation
Revised Business Segments
In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management.
Summary of the main changes
- Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment.
-Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising.
-Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes.
-Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together.
Impact of These Changes:
Core Segments Overview:
In summary:
- The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly.
- The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue.
Products and Services Overview:
- M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services.
- Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category.
Additional Insights:
- Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed.
Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations.
2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance
Financial Summary:
-Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger.
New Product and Services Segmentation Results
- Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y).
- M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y).
- Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision.
- Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y).
- LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y).
- Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y).
- Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y).
- Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y).
- M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y).
Core Business Segments Breakdown:
- Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption.
- Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth.
- More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation.
Key Observations:
- Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y).
- Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth.
- Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25.
- Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25.
- Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter.
- Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q).
- EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet:
- Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y).
- Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion.
Q2 FY25 Outlook:
- Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens.
- Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%.
- More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro.
Main Takeaways:
- Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost.
- Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25.
- Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4.
- Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points.
- Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected.
- Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases.
Earnings Call Highlights:
Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake.
AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y.
M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly.
LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends.
Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6
Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth.
4. Future Outlook
Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably.
Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start.
Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry.
For further analysis stay tuned
MSFT Channel BreakPretty significant channel break here on MSFT. This is the uptrend from January and it may be coming to an end if it can't recover soon. We also have a shorter term uptrend/bear flag on the 15m that has been broken to the downside as well.
Doesn't look good IMO, first downside target is around $390 - $385.
MICROSOFT SELL SETUPI have a Weekly uptrend with a BOS. Im looking for a weekly retest for a continuation, so Im waiting for a choch on the Daily tf to start the retracement for the weekly retest
Microsoft Corp.Hello,
Daily chart of Microsoft stock, with regression line and volumes.
The price has just broken out of the channel.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Retest of the $200 level on the table.The bull market of generations is ending. The never ending buying of the the top 10 stocks for every fund, pension, and mutual fund has seen its best days and now the a new generation who grows up in a bear market will come of age. When it is all said and done, MSFT will be back near $50. Of course, most will not comprehend what is coming, but history proves humans have never been capable of seeming the train coming.
$MSFT 1W Bear ABCD Ext harmonic, expecting 50% + drop in priceABCD Ext harmonic pattern is active on MSFT 1W chart. Expect price to form an hns taking sharply lower--50%+ from current levels. See also recent idea on bearish patterns on ES1/NQ1/YM1. HNS will drive to point B, and there is a smaller ABCD bear harmonic that will drive the price to C point of the higher tf ABCD Ext pattern.
Post reaction idea We have
MSFT call above $421.70 taking $420/$430 11/1 or take $440 11/8
We have first target 🎯 at $424.60
Second target 🎯 $428.60
Last target 🎯 for this week contracts $433.60
Next week target is $445
Puts below $415.10 take $410 11/1
First target 🎯 is $413.35
Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Decline Despite Strong Earnings ReportMicrosoft (MSFT) Shares Decline Despite Strong Earnings Report
On 9 October, our analysis of Microsoft (MSFT) suggested that the stock price:
→ Was forming an ascending channel (shown in blue on the chart);
→ Could see a rebound from its lower boundary (indicated by an arrow).
Since then, the price indeed moved upward from this support around the $411 level, even surpassing $437. However, following Microsoft’s Q3 earnings report released post-market yesterday, the share price faced heightened volatility.
In the Q3 report:
→ Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.30, exceeding the expected $3.10;
→ Gross revenue was $65.58 billion, also above the forecasted $64.57 billion.
Despite these positive figures, MSFT shares saw a decline due to high volatility during after-hours trading, reaching $444 at one point and then falling to around $410. This drop may be due to Microsoft’s rising expenses. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, Microsoft’s capital expenditures in 2024 have hit $53 billion (about 28% of revenue), a substantial increase from the 12% average of revenue allocated to capital costs between 2014 and 2023.
As of pre-market trading today, MSFT is trading around $417 (approximately -4% from yesterday’s close), likely setting the opening level for today’s main session.
Today’s technical analysis of MSFT suggests that the opening may see a bearish gap, potentially pushing MSFT’s price toward the lower boundary of the ascending blue channel, where a new consensus between buyers and sellers could emerge. This sets up two scenarios:
→ Bulls may see an opportunity for another rebound;
→ Bears could aim for a breakdown of this key support level, with potential testing of the psychological $400 level.
Analyst sentiment remains positive. According to TipRanks surveys:
→ 27 out of 30 analysts recommend buying MSFT shares;
→ The average 12-month target price for MSFT is $503.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
MSFT eyes on $ 438.79: Golden Covid fib barrier into EarningsMSFT down quite a bit from its record highs.
Testing a Golden Covid fib before earnings.
Rejection here could mark a significant high.
$ 438.79 is a Golden Covid (pretty big deal)
$ 452.09 above, 419.17 below are Genesis fibs
$ 427.38 below is a local fib for minor support.
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Microsoft (MSFT): Can Earnings Sustain the Trend Channel?With Microsoft set to report earnings, investors are keenly watching updates on AI-related spending, especially growth within Azure and Copilot, as well as broader financials. A significant focus will be on capital expenditures (Capex) for generative AI initiatives, expected to rise from $9.92 billion a year ago to an estimated $14.74 billion in this recent quarter. Beyond revenue and earnings, the market is waiting to see how these hefty investments are shaping the company’s growth trajectory.
Technically, NASDAQ:MSFT continues to test the lower bound of its trend channel—a level that may weaken with repeated retests. The stock’s reaction to earnings will reveal if this support can hold. The formation suggests a potential head and shoulders pattern, particularly if NASDAQ:MSFT dips below the neckline support at $388 with declining volume.
For now, we’re maintaining our cautious outlook. If Microsoft fails to hold its key support levels, it may confirm the bearish trend we’ve been observing. As always, we’ll provide updates if any significant developments occur after the earnings report.
MSFT:Buy ideaBuy idea on MSFT as you can see on the chart because we have the breakout of the vwap indicator and the resistance line...
Bullish on MSFT see which side it chooses on earnings!I spy a double bottom on the weekly. If MSFT can break above the neckline of this double bottom around 441, we can take it up to 468 (it’s previous ATH). I would expect a pull back or some basing here, but then see potential to create new high after. MSFT is currently holding above its downtrend line formed from July and September peaks.
If it breaks down: I not looking to trade this to the downside unless it breaks the recent uptrend line around 415 - 420. Even so, I wouldn't expect a significant or long term decline. I personally would wait for the move up.
MSFT Technical Analysis for Oct. 28, 2024Trend and Price Action: MSFT has seen a mix of upward and downward movements, with price consolidating near resistance levels. The trendline suggests some recent selling pressure as MSFT has started to pull back from its highs around $432.52.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: Key resistance is around $432.52, where MSFT may face selling pressure. A strong breakout above this could signal further upside, potentially targeting $435.
Support: Immediate support is around $427.70, and stronger support lies near $424.22 and $422.39. These levels could serve as buying zones if MSFT retraces.
MACD Indicator: The MACD is currently showing a slight bearish tendency. If this continues, it may signal short-term downward pressure, aligning with the recent resistance level rejection.
Volume: Volume appears moderate, indicating consolidation. If volume increases on a downward move, it could signal stronger selling pressure.
Suggested Strategy
Bullish Scenario: If MSFT breaks above $432.52 with volume, consider entering long, targeting $435, with stops below $430 for risk control.
Bearish Scenario: If MSFT fails to break above resistance, consider short entries near $432 with targets at $427 or $424.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a professional before making any trading decisions.
$MSFT huge FLAG break into earnings?NASDAQ:MSFT setting up for the move into earnings. Before earnings it might retest 423 area then break above into earnings. Upside target 440 area!
But if this fails 423 level, its going to be risky and could go down to 407 and 401 area (with bad earnings.) Mon and Tue sessions are crucial.
MSFTMSFT broke up the daily trendline which was formed through the tops of the 5th July and the 19th September, but bulls did not manage to close above it this Friday.
On the daily charts 100 EMA is above 200 EMA, as it is the same on the 30 mins TF, where the price fluctuates in the uptrend channel.
Daily lower trendline is confirmed by third rejection and price going up from the support on the 16th October.
With the upcoming earnings report I expect some volatility and potential buy setup forming near the 30 min channel support and daily trendline support in the price region of 415.70-418.70.
I am ready to open long position at or around 417.90, with SL below daily trendline (but not below 412.75) with potential partial TP at the top of 30 min channel close to 435 and then at 442.
If on daily TF MSFT closes above 443, that would signal potential rapid movement up and testing highs of 470, but I don't expect this to happen too soon.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnd when you think about it, everything began with this:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 430usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-1,
for a premium of approximately $9.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Msft updateCongratulations to those who are talking my signals serious n use them to make money n feed their families,this is just a bigging of the trend,trust the process,am expecting some gain this coming week in many stocks like Google n Amazon n crypto currency am seeing a first move to shift this week soo check all analysis n pick one to make money I will release Google shortly aswell.
Microsoft AI targeting $456 as Innovation Drives GrowthI made the post again because I didn't like how the chart looked.
Microsoft is gaining bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $422 level. A breakout above the $441.85 resistance would confirm further upward movement, setting the stage for the stock to test the $468 weekly resistance. With a solid 5.05 risk-to-reward ratio, this setup offers a compelling opportunity for traders, while managing risk with a stop-loss at $416.
Microsoft’s fundamentals continue to support its growth. Its dominant position in cloud computing through Azure, expansion in artificial intelligence with Copilot, and strong performance in enterprise software have solidified its role as a market leader. As demand for AI and cloud services grows, Microsoft’s diversified revenue streams position it well for sustained upside.
With technical and fundamental strength behind it, MSFT appears primed to reach the $456 level and beyond in the near term.
NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft AI targeting $456 as Innovation Drives GrowthMicrosoft is gaining bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $422 level. A breakout above the $441.85 resistance would confirm further upward movement, setting the stage for the stock to test the $468 weekly resistance. With a solid 5.05 risk-to-reward ratio, this setup offers a compelling opportunity for traders, while managing risk with a stop-loss at $416.
Microsoft’s fundamentals continue to support its growth. Its dominant position in cloud computing through Azure, expansion in artificial intelligence with Copilot, and strong performance in enterprise software have solidified its role as a market leader. As demand for AI and cloud services grows, Microsoft’s diversified revenue streams position it well for sustained upside.
With technical and fundamental strength behind it, MSFT appears primed to reach the $456 level and beyond in the near term.
NASDAQ:MSFT
