ArmDaily pattern is an inverted H&S to push arm back to its IPO price at 70$.
Price is currently flagging between 60.80-65.00
I think price is headed for a breakout of this bull flag soon
Stop loss
60.00
1st target
64.50
2nd target 70.00
ARM trade ideas
ARM accumulationPay attention to ARM. It is a company that secretly contributes to the future of tech.
ARM: $53 | Reset for Fresh Investors WAiTiNGMasa or Softbank's huge position is significant
as it is forced to book GAiNS to cover other FUNDS that got rekt from bad deals
the likes of WeWork Slack Katera Uber to name a few
the press release or promo that Apple Nvivdia the rest taking a position is cool
cool that if it goes below $30 expect these friendly competitors to upsize position for a potential Take Over
for now we wait wait wait wait as NViDiA TOPPiNG or toppish of the Tech sector recently
where its CEO and Snowflake were selling nvidia shares while doing the roadhsow entitled NViDiA SUmmit selling to the PUBLIC while smart money booking HUGE GAiNS
Patent Expirations And Competition May Limit ARM’s Market ShareKey points
1. ARM is a leader with a saturated number of customers limiting future growth.
It’s in a highly competitive landscape and needs to innovate beyond patent expirations in the 2030s.
2. As a controlled entity of SoftBank, I expect the board to push for buybacks in a bid to maximize returns.
3. I expect SoftBank to slowly unload its stake, while ARM buys back their stock - this may initially sustain the price.
Prospects Are Still Solid After IPO
ARM designs and licenses processors to manufacturers, it is the engineering company behind the world’s CPUs.
About 70% of the world’s population uses Arm-based products. More than 30 billion ARM-based chips (smartphones, small electronics, data centers, networking equipment) were shipped in FY '23, representing an approximately 70% increase since 2016.
Most of ARM’s IP sales are in the United States, however a good combined portion are in East Asia, including China (PRC), Taiwan and South Korea.
The business model of the company is to design ARM-chips and license them out to manufacturers. It sells the intellectual property behind chips, but doesn’t produce the hardware. This is an engineering-first company, with approximately 80% of global employees focused on research, design, and innovation. The company reaches scale with the ability to license out each CPU product to multiple companies.
ARM is a high performing company, with a gross margin of 80% and operating margins of 25%. The company made $2.7 billion in revenues in 2022 that stagnated in the IPO year.
Despite stagnating in its IPO year, it’s future prospects from here are still solid as demand for their IP continue to grow. But I don’t believe it’ll grow revenues as fast as analysts are expecting (14% per year).
ARM’s Market Share May Suffer As Patents Expire
Arm has an addressable market of $202.5 billion, and expects it to grow at a 6.8% annual rate to $246.6 billion by the end of 2025. The company estimates the aggregate value of chips containing Arm technology to be approx. $98.9 billion in 2022, representing 48.9% market share.
This market share is large even for a market leader. Competitors and expiring patents can become significant forces driving down the market share for ARM in the future. Notably most of the key ARM patents are expected to expire in the 2030s:
The expiration of these patents can open the door for more companies to design and manufacture ARM-based chips.
Limited New Customer Growth, But Opportunities in Smart Devices
More than 260 companies reported that they had shipped Arm-based chips in 2023, including:
Mobile computing: Apple, Guangdong OPPO, Samsung, Vivo Mobile, Xiaomi.
Cloud computing: AWS and Alibaba
Industrial IoT: Cruise and Mercedes-Benz, Raspberry Pi, Schneider Electric, and Siemens.
ARM also entered into a long-term agreement with Apple that extends beyond 2040 allowing the company to use Arm architecture for their CPUs.
The customer base for ARM is well established, and the company is at a phase where it will have a harder time acquiring new customers, rather it will have to rely on industry growth and innovation in order to increase revenue.
One of the highest-potential growth avenues for ARM is the smart devices vertical. ARM’s CPU architecture fits well in small devices, giving it an advantage over peers with larger CPUs. As compute power increases, it will become more practical for consumers to rely on mobile devices and wearables instead of larger devices for everyday needs, this has the potential to widen the TAM.
Another growth avenue for the company is the market adoption of electronically rich vehicles and EVs as well as the capitalizing on government programs subsidizing EVs. Vehicles have an increasing number of processing demands both in central systems, and IoT linked sensors.
Selling Pressure From SoftBank May Limit Price Appreciation
ARM is a controlled entity owned by SoftBank Group with approximately 90.6% of their outstanding ordinary shares following the completion ARMs IPO.
Arm’s Top Shareholders
ARM’s IPO is pushed by SoftBank who is looking to cash-in on their investment or escape with minimal losses. One scenario is to expect a continuous selling from SoftBank, which means that there may be selling pressure for some time keeping price appreciation moderate until the stock flips to a diversified investor base.
I bought $ARMTP and SL on thee chart
we have arrived to a major support level which can take us above for a quite good correction
Good Luck.
ARM: Short setupARM IPO was one of the most obvious short play this year. The one-day pump was it and now time to short it out. So far, the bounce has been steady and choppy. I think $56.78 will be the local top for now. Right now, price has broken below the channel support, but there might be a bear trap rally back up around at $54. From there if price breaks below $53, it will be the next short setup. Stop loss right above the upcoming spike. Ultimately, I think it is a $25 stock, but will re-evaluate when time comes. Above $56.78, there might be another push up higher up to $62 level before it turns down again...
ARM long seup scenario
ARM long scenario
stop and tp1 tp2 is marked on the chart..
based on harmonic theory
thanks
ARM holdings - long at 51$ IPO priceARM´s IPO hype was only of short duration. Today the market have almost reached the original issue price of $51. Here I'm going to open a small long position (I will add longs after a consolidation or reversal). I expect the price to go up to the gap close. There I will put my take profit and also place a short order.
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🔥 ARM IPO: Worth the hype? Should I chase? What even is it?ARM DD:
Before you read this, understand that trying to buy IPOs when they begin trading isn't guaranteed and if you market buy, you will get roasted. It's not good to chase IPOs. No matter if this is the next NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:TSLA and NASDAQ:AMZN combined, do not chase and only make wise and calculated decisions while trading.
I've been waiting for this IPO for a while. It's finally here. It might be the most over anticipated IPO in a while. Trade carefully. Do not chase blindly. Have a plan. Trade the plan. If it doesn't come, move on.
If you learn something or want to trade with me, give me a follow & join my community. Thanks.
IPO valued @ $55B.
Around $51 per share.
They are only releasing 9% of the total shares to the public. So it has a tiny float.
SoftBank is the owner, they bought ARM 7 years ago.
The floor for me is 40B USD valuation. Meaning, around $38.50 is support. Where did I get that number? NVDA was closing on buying ARM for 40B USD in 2020.
NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:INTC , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , TSM, Samsung, are all interested in investing in ARM.
What does ARM do?
ARM is not a chip manufacturer.
ARM designs chips & system processors & holds patents to chips and they license their technology to other big tech like AAPL, NVDA. Hence, NVDA wanted to buy them for 40B USD.
THE POSITIVES:
SoftBank bought out someone's 25% stake in ARM recently. For 16B USD. That puts it at a FWB:64B valuation in their eyes. That means the owner of ARM expects ARM to surpass 64B USD.
NVDA CEO loves ARM, but NVDA failed to acquire it.
NVDA CEO has been selling NVDA. Around 150k shares this year. Last sale 14M USD on 9/11/23. IMO he's freeing up to buy ARM @ IPO. Remember SoftBank is a 90% owner. Everyone who wants it gets it at IPO. Yes, even NVDA CEO.
The float is tiny, and asset managers .
NYSE:TSM expressed interest of 100M USD investment
This might be the most hyped IPO in a while.
THE NEGATIVES:
SoftBank is a known dumper.
SoftBank bought ARM in 2016 for $32B. They tried flipping it in 2020 for 40B USD to NVDA. So they were happy with a 8B flip USD in 4 years. Sus. Shows signs that if ARM does well, they'll unload.
Because SoftBank are known dumpers, once they dump one time, investors will get shook.
Their net income is low. Under 550M.
Their revenue is around $2.7B.
Their net income dropped YoY.
Again, I will evaluate if I'm buying this and post my entries/ exits in my community. Welcome to join.
Stay tuned.
Buying ARM bull flag at 62.15Nice opportunity to buy softbank's arm ipo here on first proper pullback to support.
Bull flag play up to descending flag trend line.
ARM IPO- big price for questionable growthARM made .54 eps in 2022 and .51 eps in 2023. at 51 cents eps, its 124 PE.
Revenue per share current is 2.60 revenue per share, giving a price to sales over 20 PS.
Its unclear if ARM is growing sales and earnings at a rate that justifies the current premium.
Possible multiples examples:
if pe goes to:
20pe x .51 = 10.20
30pe x .51 =15.30
40pe x .51= 20.40
so clearly there is some high growth rate implied at the current price.
Implied growth rate is in the 30% to 60 % annual growth range.
If its not a grower, is it priced as a tech hedge? in case other firms buy it?
From a value and growth investor perspective, the math doesnt add up.
Secured +10% on ARM, kept under 1/2 position. ⚠️ LOW FLOATERDrop a like and follow to show your support! Thanks.
For bulls and bears alike, remember this is a LOW FLOAT. If you are shorting this stock when shares are available to borrow, remember it has a 9.3% float, is the most anticipated IPO in a while, and has clients like NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:INTC NYSE:TSM and the list goes on.
That being said, if I see +10% in 10 minutes, I must sell at least 1/2 my position. Got in @ 55.XX, out at 61.XX right when I saw the 9% and 10% print.
If it goes to 100, 200, 300, I really wouldn't care because I followed my rules.
Good luck trading. Remember to create a plan and follow it. That's the only way you'll be a consistent trader.
When there's not enough data, you can use a smaller time frame for reference.
Example:
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ARM: Be careful chasing hot IPOs.NASDAQ:ARM see a lot of FOMO here..
Remember:
Don't market buy. They will fill your order as high as possible.
Don't FOMO buy. Don't force a trade.
SoftBank is a dumper. They tried dumping ARM in 2020 for a +25% gain to $NVDA. Let that sink in.
Also, don't short it. You might get roasted.
SoftBank bought 25% stake at 64B valuation recently. That means that should serve as a decent floor. The other floor is 40B which NASDAQ:NVDA would scoop up I imagine.
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