Apple Market Analysis (AAPL): Evaluating Potential Scenarios 📉 While we're not ones to conjure doomsday scenarios or firmly believe in them, it's undeniable that some charts, stocks, commodities, etc., have the potential to plunge significantly.
Apple NASDAQ:AAPL is one such example. It's essential to clarify that we don't primarily anticipate a 40 to 50 percent drop in Apple's stock price. However, we must acknowledge the possibility.
🔎 Our primary analysis suggests we're dealing with an overarching Wave (3) (in blue) and currently in Wave (4). The question is whether Wave (4) has already concluded at the $124 level with a zigzag-flat movement, or if we might dip lower for Wave (4). There are two possibilities, especially since Wave 1 aligns precisely with the 127 percent level, which is the target for an Expanded Flat. The structure towards the red Wave 1 doesn't distinctly resemble a 5-wave pattern, keeping the second scenario very much in play. If this occurs, we expect prices to reach at least $124, potentially dropping further towards $100.
If we assume that it's indeed a Wave 1, lying coincidentally around $200, we might be dealing with a normal flat structure. Both Wave ((a)), showing a triple structure, and Wave ((b))are at the level of Wave 1, leading us to anticipate Wave ((c)) reaching the level of Wave ((a)). However, a deeper fall is still plausible, ideally stabilizing at the 61.8% level. Anything below this would significantly alter the potential Wave (4) scenario, and we would wait accordingly.
✅ Over the next days, we'll continue to monitor the chart, ready to send out a limit order for this setup if it materializes.
📉 Looking at the potential doomsday scenario, particularly a possible Wave II. This Wave II could reach between 50 and 78.6%. Assuming Wave A as Wave II, as shown, is quite a gamble since it doesn't even reach 38.2% of the total course since 2009. Also, Wave B, as an overshooting wave, precisely hits the 127% retracement from Wave 5 to Wave A, suggesting an extended Wave II correction.
📈 If, however, we surpass $205, this scenario becomes invalid, indicating a continued upward trend. Unless we break this level, there's still a possibility of dropping below $100, a precarious position for Apple. But then, as this is part of Wave II, a significant, long-term rise for Wave III should follow. Whether this happens remains to be seen in the coming months, laying the foundation for either a downward correction or a continued uptrend.
