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CBoT beanoil maintaining short Beanoil: Nothing really dramatic changed in our views on this chart although the move to the downside is less steep than we were expecting initially. Price basically made a sideways move during the week with a long tailed 'hammer' on the weekly chart (not displayed). A 'hammer' is an indication that the end of the move down is imminent so that is something to keep an eye on. Another thing that is interesting to keep an eye on is the development of the Bollinger Band during the coming week or 10 days and see how much contraction we will see developing there. We keep the bear scenario alive although we anticipate further move to the upside during the rest of this week or ten days to the 3175/3200 level from where we expect price to reverse back down and resume its decline. We have adjusted our chart accordingly.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil maintaining short playBeanoil: Price keeps following our preferred route that we have put on the chart about a month ago and there is little to add to that. We have drawn a descending price channel in which price seem to be moving to the downside. Our targets remains unchanged, trails keep being trailed down along with price and traders with a short position enjoy the ride. We will start looking at a possible reconsideration if and when price moves outside its channel on the upside and a break of the 32.50 level to the upside will invalidate our bear case.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoT maintaining short playBeanoil: Price made a solid move up during an 'inside day' session. The advance in price was stronger than what we would have liked to see but the overall picture of our bias does not change. We anticipate lower prices but we would like to see the lows of May 23&25 at 31.42 to be broken after which the door will be open to an acceleration to the downside. First target is at 29.00 and second target is at 28.00 after which we will see whether and how far we want to trail the final target down. The stop for now is at 33.72 basis end-of-day. Positions will need to be rolled over soon (preferably this week) and traders need to be alert for slippage.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoT again going shortBeanoil: Price made further advance during the past week and hit our stop. One could argue that our stop was too tight but, as a rule, taking a loss is a very healthy thing to do and the saying that 'the first loss is your best loss' makes a lot of sense if one thinks about it. So does the saying 'if you are not prepared to take a loss you will, sooner than later, be forced to take the mother of all losses' for that matter. The long-term pattern in the chart as such does not change at all and we maintain our bear bias until proven wrong which would be if price breaks 3385 to the upside. During the past weeks price has developed an ascending wedge which is a very reliable bode that the move up is coming to an end. In addition to that we see a 'bearish engulfing' pattern combined with a single key reversal in last Friday's candle. All these key elements combined plus our expectation that the move to the downside will be sizeable makes us entertain a new short play again at either 33.40 during Monday which is at the upper boundary of the ascending wedge or at a close of 32.60 or lower during Monday which would be a break of the lower boundary of same ascending wedge. Initial stop will be put at 34.15 which is more for reason of money management than anything else.
CBOT:ZLN2016Short
by Remko
CBoT beanoil still shortBeanoil: Price traded further into its resistance area of the 3200 level and actually traded higher than what we would have liked to see. For twice in a row (Thursday and Friday) price traded into our pre-set stop-loss zone but still closed below same stop levels and we are still in position. Even though the resistance zone is tested more severe than we initially anticipated the overall pattern does not change and we keep our bear bias until we are proven wrong by the market. Our reconsideration point is still at the 3385 mark and the stop is still at 3260 but that is more for money management reason than anything else. The last two sessions hunted the price up but momentum went lost and the chart shows two candles with long topping tales which is a sign that the bulls ran out of air. We are still on the edge and we will start feeling more comfortable with our bear bias after we see price trading decisively to the 3120 zone which we would like to see happening during the coming week. After that we will trail our stop to entry level and will start looking for a target.
CBOT:ZLN2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoTBeanoil: Price has made its test back to the resistance level of 3200 which has set the floor for a solid bear move. Initial stops are at 3260 for this run and if price would break the 3385 level we will have to turn back to our drawing board and reconsider our bear bias again. In case that our initial stop gets hit we will look at a renewed short entry opportunity later on. Initial target has not been set yet as we first want to see price to get on its way so that we can trail the stop to entry level but we are in for a 10% move at least.
CBOT:ZLN2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoT N16Beanoil: Price initially followed our preferred routing quite precisely but suffered a pull-back during the last two sessions that was deeper than we would have liked to see. Our bias with price target remains intact although a decisive move further down to 31.50 would be a conclusive sign to us that we should reconsider our short term bull bias. Our longer term view on beanoil is bearish but for now we still keep our eye on the 36 target by the end of May and we have not changed the chart.
CBOT:ZLN2016Long
by Remko
Beanoil Long PlayPrice has been following our preferred path quite nicely last week and tested the downside of the ascending price channel from where it made quite an impulsive bounce up during last Friday's session. Friday's candle was a strong one and had the characteristics of a 'Bullish Engulfing' candle which is a solid sign that price wants to reverse and go up from here. The candle was also a 'Double Key Reversal' candle with a lower low than the previous day but a higher close than the two previous candles which is a very solid bullish bode as well. As far as we are concerned the price is on the way to our target of around 36/37 by latest the end of May which is at the upper boundaries of the price channel and some 8-10 percent up from its current level.
CBOT:ZLN2016Long
by Remko
Beanoil almost ready for a longBeanoil: Price has been moving in a wide-ranged ascending channel from Sep/Oct15 onwards with higher highs and higher lows. Since about two weeks price started again a correction to the down side but still within the boundaries of the ascending price channel. The candle of last Friday was a perfectly shaped ´inverted Hammer´ which is a strong reversal signal and which indicates that a reversal of the price back up is imminent. Price could well trade a bit lower during the first 2 or 3 trading sessions of next week but we expect price to reverse back up soon. We favour a bit further decline to the 3250/3200 level during early next week after which we expect price to trade back up to the 3600 level during the remainder of May and possibly into June.
CBOT:ZLN2016
by Remko
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CBoT beanoil short play set-upA renewed set-up on the beanoil chart after our last set up earlier this week did not materialize as the selling trigger lacked. Today we see price making a so-called 'bearish engulfing' which is a reliable reversal pattern. Price kept its divergence with it MACD and RSI: higher highs in price (compared to it last high at close on December 4 at 32.35) but not charting higher highs on its MACD and RSI. Since March 3 price has started to trade within a steep channel upwards which was broken only today and, if no rally occurs towards today's close, price will close below the lower boundary line of same ascending channel. It is worth entertaining a short play here at the close or tomorrow's opening but only provided that price closes at/below 33.45 and with a very tight stop at 34.25 basis intra-day.
CBOT:ZLK2016Short
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil possible short set up in the makingWe have a possible short set-up in the making here. The beanoil MAY16 chart is of 11am CDT so the session in Chicago has not ended yet. The candle could be a 'shooting star' in the making which, principally, is a bearish sign and it is a reliable bode that the end of the move up is imminent. More important, however, is that the chart is showing divergence between the development of price on one side and its RSI and MACD on the other side: price has made a new high yesterday whereas its RSI and MACD did not. This is a very strong sign that the market is overbought and needs correction. In addition comes the aforementioned 'shooting star' which adds to the reversal probability. Too early and too much of aggressive approach for this trader to enter a short play here and now already as we want to see a confirmation. We keep the gear in 'neutral' but will have a close look again during the session on Monday next. If and when we see a negative candle developing during Monday's session it would mean that an 'evening star' is in the making which is a reliable reversal pattern. This in combination with the divergence and the 'shooting star' legitimises a short play with a tight intra-day stop above the high of today.
CBOT:ZLK2016Short
by Remko