ZL Soybean Short PUT on SoyBean due to seasonal aspects and extreme long positioning of commercial traders, highly raised volatility in the last days
FSOY1! trade ideas
Mid-term cyclic bullish setup for Soybean oil - ZL CBOT FuturesLook forward for gain starts in early April
CBoT beanoil weeklyThe weekly continuation char shows an ascending price channel of which the lower boundary started at around 25.00/26.00 during August/September 2015 and offered support to price during July/August 2016 at around the 30.00 level as well as during the past 2 weeks at around the 32.50 level. Price has been bouncing up from this supportive trend line which we expected it to now again.
Quite significant is the fact that last week’s candle is a so-called ‘Double Key Reversal’ which means that price made a lower low than the preceding week but closed higher than the 2 preceding weeks. A ‘Double Key Reversal’ is a very reliable and strong bode that price will make an immediate reversal which, in this case, is to the upside.
Unless proven the contrary, there is no reason to doubt that price is on the way up from here with, roughly, the 40.00 level as price target. Price could, however, make a minor pull-back first during the coming week which is shown in the daily chart.
CBoT BeanoilThe daily MAY17 chart does not tell us an awful lot other than that price has been trading with a descending channel.
If and when price breaks the upper boundary of the channel it will have plenty of room to the upside to develop a rally but the first 2 or 3 sessions will probably to the downside during the coming week.
Long Soybean Oil As long as in the trend, never beat them.
Good entry for long position. Kindly follow me for new update.
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CBoT beanoilBeanoil:
The beanoil price has taken out some pivotal supportive levels during the past week even though the 34 mark remains unbroken. Like in soybeans and in soyameal we will have to allow the tradable bottom more time until the end of January or, possibly, into February.
CBoT Beanoil almost ready for a long play
Beanoil:
Like the rest of the soy complex, the beanoil price has developed an ascending channel during the past months with higher highs and higher lows. During the past week price developed and ascending wedge towards the higher end of the price channel from where, as per the TA rules of thumb, price broke out to the downside. We expect price to continue its corrective move down from here towards the 36.50/36.00 zone where price is expected to find a solid base for a substantial move up to reach the 40.00 level at around mid January. From there, after a minor corrective move down again, price can then trade further up to the 44.00 level before the start of spring. A break down through the 34.00 level would negate our long term bull scenario.
CBoT beanoilBeanoil:
The bull flag pattern that we detected last week on this chart failed. We want to take a break for now on this market and need to see what will develop during the coming 1 or 2 weeks.
CBoT beanoil no positionBeanoil:
Price made a strong 3% move up during the Monday session after which it has been developing a pennant which is a continuation pattern. The pattern seemed to fail during last Friday's session when price made a move to the downside but still closed within the boundaries of the pennant pattern. We expect price to continue going up from here on very short term to reach 3700/3750 after which we expect price to reverse and resume its long term down trend.
Not a market to be long and not a market to be short but a perfect market to stay out look at from the sidelines.
CBoT not going anywhere Beanoil:
Price made a 3% move up to the week which mostly came through during Friday's session.
Price broke the 2 pivotal resistance levels at 33.75 and 34.29 during the week and close above same levels which, principally, will give price the possibility to trade up further and possibly reach the 36/37 level. Having said so, the move of the past week could also very well be a bull trap and we do not feel comfortable either direction right now. The most likely move from here is to the upside but we would not build a long play strategy based on what we see here. It is just not a market to hold any position in either way.
Soybean Oil: There May Be Some Downside AheadComments on the chart. Price taken out the high of the bearish engulfing candle is the first sign that this idea might be failing
CBoT beanoil remains neutral for nowBeanoil:
This pice has given us quite a bit of headaches during the past week as it is just not going anywhere very fast. After a 'spinning top' during the week before last week price has now drawn a perfect 'doji' during the past week with an opening price of the first session of the week to be at exact the same level as the closing price of the last session of the week (being 33.31) which is a sign of further indecisiveness of the market. The candle of the week has posted a lower low and lower high which is an indication that price is trying to trade down but nothing much more than just an indication indeed.
We still keep a bear scenario as very likely for this price but would not want to base a short trade on what we are seeing in this chart today. We want to kick the can down the street for one more week (and, if needed, more) to see whether the pivotal resistance levels at 33.75 and, especially, at 34.29 will hold and whether the supportive zone at around the 32 value will give way. A break to the upside of 33.75 will nullify a possible bear case scenario and will probably allow price to trade up to the 36.50/37.00 zone before a possible reversal down will occur. We are detached for this one now and simply need more time.
CBoT beanoil still neutralBeanoil:
We have framed a bear scenario on this price for quite a long time now which was harshly interrupted by the fierce upswing during the first half of August and, to a lesser extend, by the corrective move up during mid September. As long at the most recent high of 34.83 of August 23 remains unbroken we can keep our bear scenario intact but we would like to see a decisive and impulsive move to the downside on short term. The weekly chart (not displayed here) shows a 'spinning top' which is a typical sign that market is indecisive and we can consider the last week as a lost week from TA point of view. We maintain our neutral position for now but with the bear scenario still as most probable reality for the next future. We need one more week.
CBoT beanoil sidelinedBeanoil:
The impulsive and strong move up during the early stage of last week hit our stops and forced us out of the market place. Looking at it from the sideline we see that the last crucial barrier between current levels and the 36/37 level has not been broken. At the same time, however, we are not convinced that the sideways move and especially Friday's lower low is a bode that price will resume its downtrend from here although the indication is there. We will need one more week to get a clearer picture, same unless an impulsive move either way will tell us more. Until then we are sidelined.
CBoT beanoil remains a short playBeanoil:
Price started the week with quite an impulsive move to the downside of well over 4% in just 2 sessions but made a relatively strong corrective move back up during especially the Thursday session. Nothing changes in our outlook and we maintain our bear bias. We expect price to continue its downtrend immediately from Monday's opening onward. The crucial resistance levels are 32.97 for the short term and 33.59 for the mid term. But as long as these levels are not broken to the upside we see no reason to reconsider our bias.
CBoT Beanoil still undecidedBeanoil:
Price keeps us in doubt on where to look for the short term. Longer term we remain bearish with a price target at 2600 or lower but our key question for today is where price will move during the coming week. We wanted to see either a decisive break of the 3260/3250 level and a break of the 3220 mark after that or a move to the upside to reach for 36 before reversing back down.
It initially looked like it was actually happening during last Thursday's session that price was going to break through to the downside but Friday's strong move up of almost 3% made the picture look quite different again. Still, Friday's candle has a fairly long topping tail which clearly indicates that the bulls ran out of air, at least for that day.
We need to kick the can a bit further down the street on this chart to decide whether external markets will put weight on this price and pull it down along or that price will indeed make one swing up first during the coming 1 to 2 weeks. We will come with an update on Wednesday or Thursday.
CBoT beanoil stopped out and waitingBeanoil:
During the 2nd half of August we were taken a bit by surprise by price's upswing which stopped us out from our bear bias. The picture of today does not really give us a very clear vision on the nearby future.
Principally, we should see price resuming to the upside from here and especially now to seek for the 36/37 zone from where price can resume its long term down trend. However, price should then not break the 32.60/32.50 level in which case we will have to turn back to an immediate bear scenario.
Bottomline, we are holding our horses for now and await what will unfold during the coming week before taking any side.
SOYBEAN OIL: DON'T MISS OUT! Analysis on chart
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Soybean Oil Futures Weekly ChartInverse Head and Shoulders Pattern on the weekly chart for soybean oil futures, If it breaks 35, I think this could go on a run.
CBoT beanoil stopped out and now neutralBeanoil:
Price posted a solid gain of over 6% during the first 3 days of the week after which 2 'Hanging Man' candles were formed. This could be a sign the end of the rally is imminent but same needs confirmation. We have been calling for lower levels and with a rise of over 11% the contrary happening during the past 2 weeks. Stops were hit and it is time for us to step back and reconsider what is actually happening here.
