Gold bearish! 2570 is the next most probable targetGold has finally given in to the pressure of a strong dollar. I expect lower prices until we get to the $2570 price point. Good luck my friends!
GOLDPETAL1! trade ideas
MGC Short 11/10/2024MGC is in a sideways + down momentum in daily chart as price closed below 21EMA. It is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Price is testing 4hr 21EMA and 200EMA. Placed a short in SZ above 4hr 21EMA (purple horizontal line) that broke high volume DZ (green box). Taking half risk because the zone is low volume. Risk= $124. Target= 1:1 and daily DZ (blue box).
Why Gold Could See a 15% Correction Before the Next RallyGold, sitting at around $2,700, boasts an impressive 32.1% YTD performance. However, we're anticipating a significant 10-15% correction from current levels.
This past week's market dynamics are telling: the Russell 2000 surged 8.57%, $500B flowed into crypto markets signaling renewed risk appetite, while gold recorded its steepest weekly drop (-1.98%) since May 2024.
While these factors shape our near-term bearish outlook, persistent economic risks reinforce our long-term bullish stance on gold for the next couple of years.
Bullish Gold Trade IdeaGold is showing signs of bullish momentum following the Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut, which has softened the U.S. dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. On the intraday charts, gold is consolidating near key support levels, setting up for a potential breakout.
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral. Market only went lower through spikes, which were followed by a pullback. This is not as strong as it looks and I do think it’s likely that bears get disappointed next week. 2600 is possible but that is the lowest I can see this going for now. Any long closer to 2626 is an amazing trade. I have an open bull gap there and I highly doubt bears will be able to close it. For now bears have turned the daily 20ema into resistance and if you want higher probability on your longs, wait for a breakout above 2725.
Quote from last week:
comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price.
comment : Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo.
current market cycle: Best guess right now is a bigger trading range 2600-2800.
key levels: 2600 - 2800
bull case: Bulls failed at 2700 and if they don’t close a daily bar above 2720 soon, we could test down to 2600, which is where I expect many more buyers to enter the market again. We have an open bull gap, the October low and the weekly 20 ema in the price area. I do think the closer you can long to 2600, the better the trade.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears had 2 spikes down now and they could get a third before I see this going higher again. Bears know that each sell spike was followed by a bull bar, so the trend down is weak and will likely find it’s bottom soon. Bears will likely wait for another pullback higher to daily 20ema and/or bear trend line around 2710, before trying for a third leg down.
Invalidation is above 2730.
outlook last week:
short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2749 and now we are at 2694. Good outlook, market got even 50 points lower than my target. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2600 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more.
Update: Changed 2700 to 2600, since market broke strongly below 2700 already. Trading range is still my preferred path forward, just the lower end went down 100 points.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear trend line
GOLD OUTLOOK for the rest of Q4 2024 and Weekly Outlook In this outlook I share my elite edge that I've never shared before with anyone, in hopes that it will help you with obtaining the biggest moves in your trading career. In my opinion, I believe that we have capped the high for the Gold trading year, and now we are trading the closing wick back into the overall range. In this broadcast I share projections and insights that should help you get on side with the market so that you can participate in the massive move on the near horizon. Thanks and enjoy.
GOLD THE S&P 11.8.24 I that some of these markets are overbought and that there should be some corrections lower. up the gold market corrected about $10,000 and then it reversed about $7000.... but it looks like it might go lower to the lower range box which I explained in the video . I thought I needed to put in realistic stops because you need to know what they are. if I tell you gold is a great trade because I think $2000 stop is a small stop... you and I may not agree on what a small stop is. but if I can risk $2000 to make $9000 that is a risk of willing to take. you still have to know what a stop looks like not just the range and you do that through looking at the chart a daily or a four-hour chart. in addition, there are subtle changes in the market that can give you a clue that you can stay in longer or that you should get out sooner and so you look for these behaviors.
The #1 Reason Why Buying Gold Is Hard Right NowBuying gold is a bit of a challenge for me
because I am so used to buying bitcoin
But what i have noticed is that
When bitcoin goes up gold goes down
and vice versa..
so my idea of buying gold
Is to buy it at the same time as bitcoin
but account for the drawdown of about 5%
its not pretty but it will work in the long
run
Again am not a fun of trading gold COMEX:GC1!
With margin
but its a good one to consider right
now that the market is quiet from good entries
and we are standing on the sidelines
during this crazy market mania.
Even though am thinking
You can still buy Bitcoin
but look at the stochastic RSI below
the chart you can see the moving
averages crossing.
The only challenge with trading
Gold and silver is the volatility is
crazy so if you dont mind the ride
Then you can take it
just remember to use the
stochastic rsi as your
guide to know whether the price is
cheap or not.
Personally, i have re-entered the
Bitcoin CME:BTC1! price action,
It may crash next week
But at least your Bitcoin Buy
should sustain you with
some profit.
So for this one Buy Gold, silver and
Bitcoin
according to this chart Buy Gold
using the daily stochastic rsi chart after
the Bitcoin buy signal
Also, this price action follows
the rocket booster strategy
To learn more about this strategy
check out
the references below
Remember to rocket boost this
content to learn more
Disclaimer: Trading is risky
please learn risk management and profit-taking
strategies. Because you will
Lose money whether you like it
or not.
MGC Short 11/7/2024MGC is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Placed a short position in confluence HV SZ. Risk= $200. Target= 1:1 and close to daily DZ.
Gold AnalysisThis analysis is based on the 1h timeframe. We have identified a discounted area of Demand and a premium area of Supply. We plan to wait for either a pullback to Demand, which is the base of the bullish swing pullback, or a rally seeking HTF Supply. Day trades will be placed on the 5m timeframe targeting these zones.
GOLD MCX - 1D TIMEFRAME - ANALYSIS
Pure Price Action-Based Trading Plan
Buy Position:
Enter a buy position if the price breaks and closes above ₹78,700.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹79,500
Target 2: ₹80,500
Target 3: ₹82,000
Stop Loss: Place the stop loss just below ₹77,000 to limit downside risk.
Sell Position:
Enter a sell position if the price breaks and closes below ₹76,300.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹75,500
Target 2: ₹74,500
Target 3: ₹73,000
Stop Loss: Set the stop loss above ₹77,000 for this trade.
Given the overall bullish trend, it would be safer to lean towards a buy on breakouts rather than anticipating a reversal. However, a break below support could open the door for short-term selling opportunities. This approach relies purely on observing price behavior at key levels rather than indicator-based signals.
Gold's Bull MarketThis is what's happening.
A series of measured moves
Expecting a pause here should be expected
#gold
BigAskMagnet Institute: The Case for Going Long on Gold FuturesAt BigAskMagnet Institute, we strongly advocate for a long-only approach to gold futures in the current market. Here's why:
1. Fundamental Drivers:
Inflation and Currency Risks: Persistently high inflation and weakening currencies are solidifying gold’s position as a hedge.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing global tensions are fueling demand for safe-haven assets, with gold leading the charge.
2. Technical Strength:
Recent price action confirms a strong bullish trend, breaking through critical resistance levels at .
BigAskMagnet Institute anticipates further upside potential, with targets at .
3. Long-Only Strategy Benefits:
Gold’s long-term value proposition makes short positions riskier in this environment.
BigAskMagnet Institute recommends focusing solely on long entries, using pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Risk Management Tip: Place stop-losses strategically below key support levels to safeguard your position while allowing for market fluctuations.
Gold remains a strong performer in turbulent times, and a long-only strategy ensures traders stay aligned with the dominant trend.
Time to Buy More Gold Futures ContractsAt BigAskMagnet Institute, we believe the time is ripe to increase exposure to gold futures. The precious metal has been demonstrating strong bullish potential, driven by key macroeconomic factors such as rising geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and dovish central bank policies.
Key Points:
Fundamental Factors: Gold is regaining its status as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: Recent price action shows a breakout above , with the next target at . Volume confirms the bullish trend.
Risk Management: Suggested stop-loss at to mitigate potential downside risks.
Gold futures offer a strategic opportunity to capitalize on the current market environment. BigAskMagnet Institute is here to guide you in navigating these golden opportunities.
Gold Update: Post-Election WeaknessThe price of gold typically drops after U.S. elections, and this time is no different.
This weakness coincides with the expected wave count on the chart, as Wave 4 correction was anticipated. (see related)
Wave 3 is extended, and so is sub-Wave 5 within it, which is a common pattern for commodities.
Wave 4 has now begun, and there are two ways to measure its potential target:
1. Wave 4 typically retraces Wave 3 by around 38.2%.
2. The trend channel formed through the peaks of Wave 1 and Wave 3, and the valley of Wave 2, suggests a potential bottom for Wave 4.
This chart shows an amazing alignment of these two factors: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $2,428, and the bottom of the channel is around $2,450. These levels provide a strong double support for gold prices.
The final upward impulse should at least retest the all-time high of $2,802 (the peak of Wave 3).
The Cup & Handle pattern (see related ideas) has a target of $3,000.
The Importance of Financial Discipline in TradingThe Importance of Financial Discipline in Trading: A Pathway to Lasting Success
Achieving consistent success hinges on one fundamental principle: financial discipline. This concept encompasses adherence to a well-structured trading strategy, effective risk management, and emotional control. Distinguishing successful traders from those who struggle, financial discipline empowers individuals to make informed decisions while navigating the often chaotic world of financial markets.
Understanding Financial Discipline
Financial discipline is about maintaining a methodical approach to trading. It requires traders to exercise patience in waiting for favorable market conditions, the courage to cut losses promptly, and the self-restraint to avoid impulsive risks. By establishing clear trading rules and sticking to them, traders can minimize errors, conserve capital, and foster long-term profitability. In contrast, a lack of discipline can lead to devastating consequences, derailing even the most promising strategies and exposing traders to significant financial setbacks.
Also Read:
The Critical Role of Emotional Control
Emotions can be one of the biggest hurdles in trading. Decisions driven by fear, greed, or overconfidence often lead to regrettable outcomes. For instance, fear may result in prematurely exiting a position, causing traders to miss out on potential gains when they could have held on longer. Conversely, the lure of quick profits might tempt traders to overtrade or take on excessive risk.
Disciplined traders minimize the impact of emotions by adhering to a comprehensive pre-planned strategy that emphasizes consistency. This approach includes specific criteria for trade entries and exits, pre-defined risk thresholds, and clear guidelines for position sizing. By operating within these parameters, traders can cope with the inevitable volatility of the market without succumbing to emotional reactions.
Moreover, having financial discipline allows traders to maintain composure during turbulent market periods, a time when many make ill-advised choices. The essence of financial discipline lies in its ability to keep traders focused on their long-term objectives, adapt strategies when needed, and ultimately achieve sustained profitability over time.
Also Read:
Setting Achievable Goals
Successful trading begins with the establishment of realistic, achievable goals. Traders should clarify their objectives—in both the short and long term—to facilitate strategic decision-making. Short-term goals, such as monthly profit targets, should remain specific yet attainable, fostering motivation and providing benchmarks for progress. For example, rather than aiming for excessively high returns, a trader might target a modest monthly gain, reducing the urge to engage in risky behavior.
However, flexibility is essential. Financial markets are dynamic, and goals may need adjustment in response to changing conditions. What may seem feasible during a bull market could become unrealistic in a downturn. Long-term goals, such as building wealth over several years, can help traders keep sight of their overarching aims without getting sidetracked by temporary setbacks.
By setting realistic expectations, traders can avoid the pitfalls of ambition that often lead to burnout or reckless decisions. These well-defined goals serve not only as performance indicators but also as tools to cultivate patience and resilience in the trading journey.
Risk Management: The Heart of Discipline
Effective risk management is paramount for survival in trading, and disciplined traders recognize that controlling risk is essential for long-term sustainability. Every trade carries a degree of uncertainty, and without a robust risk management strategy, even minor losses can escalate, jeopardizing a trader's financial health.
One fundamental risk management technique is the implementation of stop-loss orders. A stop-loss automatically closes a trade once it reaches a predetermined loss threshold, helping traders avoid the pitfall of holding onto losing positions in hopes of recovery. By defining acceptable limits, traders can mitigate risks and safeguard their accounts.
Position sizing is another critical component of a prudent risk management strategy. Traders should only risk a small percentage of their total capital on any single trade, ensuring that a series of losses will not have a devastating impact on their overall account balance. This approach encourages traders to diversify their risks rather than overexposing themselves to any one market or trade.
Additionally, understanding and applying a favorable risk-reward ratio is central to disciplined trading. Aiming for trades where the potential reward significantly surpasses the risk taken helps ensure that traders remain profitable in the long run. For example, a risk-reward ratio of 3:1 means risking $100 to potentially earn $300. By consistently identifying trades with such favorable ratios, traders can weather inevitable losses while maintaining a path to profitability.
Also Read:
Mastering Emotional Control
The psychological aspects of trading cannot be overlooked. Emotions such as fear and greed can markedly hinder progress. Fear may lead to hasty exits from positions, while greed could incite traders to exceed their risk limits in pursuit of greater profits. Both scenarios jeopardize a structured trading plan and can have dire financial consequences.
Long-term success in trading requires emotional control, allowing traders to base decisions on careful analysis rather than spontaneous reactions to the market. Fostering a disciplined routine is key. This starts with a thorough trading plan that outlines clear entry and exit strategies, risk management protocols, and position sizes. Consistently revisiting and adhering to this plan will help mitigate impulsive decision-making influenced by market mood swings or personal stressors.
Embracing losses as an inherent part of trading is also vital. Even the most adept traders experience losing trades, and it's crucial to avoid allowing recent losses to cloud future judgment. Focusing on the broader strategy and long-term performance instead of fixating on individual trades enhances a trader’s capacity to remain rational and composed.
Also Read:
and...
Conclusion: The Path to Consistency and Success
Financial discipline is not merely a concept; it's the bedrock of effective trading. By prioritizing structured strategies, managing risk diligently, and controlling emotions, traders can position themselves for sustained success in the financial markets. The journey to mastery involves setting realistic goals, crafting sound risk management plans, and cultivating emotional resilience. Ultimately, by embracing these principles, traders can improve their decision-making processes and enhance their chances for consistent, profitable outcomes in the exciting yet challenging world of trading.
Adaptive Volume Flow Indicator (AVFI)The Adaptive Volume Flow Indicator (AVFI) is an advanced version of the traditional Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) that adapts to market conditions by using dynamic volatility and volume thresholds. It improves volume analysis by reducing false signals in low-volatility environments and adjusting sensitivity during high-volatility periods.
Key features include:
Dynamic volatility cutoff using ATR to adjust sensitivity based on market conditions.
Adaptive volume cap that adjusts to the asset’s average volume, avoiding skewed signals.
Customizable smoothing methods with options for EMA or SMA.
Improved noise filtering, making it more reliable in sideways or low-volume markets.
The AVFI helps identify trend strength, volume-driven price movements, and potential reversals, offering a more accurate and adaptable tool for traders.
MGC Long 11/6/2024MGC is in a downtrend. Price is testing daily DZ (blue box). Placed a long position in HV DZ. Taking half risk because it is a countertrend trade. Risk= $125. Target= 1:1 and HV SZ.
GoldAs of November 7, 2024, gold prices have experienced significant volatility, influenced by various global economic and geopolitical factors.
Current Price Levels:
Gold is trading around $2,734.79 per ounce, slightly below its recent peak of $2,790.15 reached on October 31, 2024. (Reuters)
Technical Analysis:
• Support Levels: Immediate support is observed at $2,608.30, with stronger support around $2,468.20. (MarketScreener)
• Resistance Levels: Key resistance is near the recent high of $2,790.15. (Reuters)
• Moving Averages: Gold is trading above its 13, 48, and 200-day EMAs, indicating a sustained bullish trend. (Economies)
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is around 58.93, suggesting mild bullish momentum without being overbought. (Moneycontrol)
Fundamental Factors:
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have increased gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. (Reuters)
• U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to support higher gold prices. (Reuters)
• Central Bank Demand: Robust purchases by central banks have bolstered gold demand. (JPMorgan)
Outlook:
Analysts predict that gold prices could rise to $2,600 or $2,700 by the end of the year, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. (Reuters)
Conclusion:
Gold’s technical indicators and fundamental factors suggest a continued bullish trend. Investors should monitor geopolitical developments and central bank policies, as these will significantly influence gold’s trajectory in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
MGC Short 11/3/2024MGC is in a downtrend in 4hr chart with a cross below, retest and follow through (FT). Placed a short position in 1hr HV confluence SZ. Taking half risk because daily and 4hr trends don't match. Also, price is rallying from daily DZ (Blue box). Risk= $125. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
MGC Long 10/29/2024MGC is in an strong uptrend. Made ATH. Placing a long position in 1hr HV DZ far away from MA. Hence, taking half risk. Risk= $124. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
Scenario GOLD levels update This view of gold actually somehow confirms that I should be on the good side of the market, outside of the original analysis, we could see a false breakout from which the price consolidated around the zone marked by me, which may show us a head-and-shoulders formation, which may be followed by a correction against this formation
Quick Short Scalp TradeI'm targeting a more risky liquidity however I moved TP a bit lower. If trendline hits and keeps falling great if not and it hits that SSL "red line" then reacts to shoot up i will close trade in some profit. Lets see. I have already entered before posting this.
Also this was done on 1 min TF but have to post this as 15min lol
