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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers! It's great to have you all here. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. December Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.1, down 1.4 points from the previous month, marking its lowest level in three months, while the Services PMI rose to 58.5, up 1.4 points, hitting a 38-month high. - Eurozone December Composite PMI increased to 49.5, up 1.2 points from the previous month but remained below the critical threshold of 50. - ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel stated, "Monetary policy must proceed gradually and remain data-dependent." - At the December FOMC meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut is seen as a given, but there is a prevailing outlook for rates to be held steady in January. - Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation following a conflict with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Key Economic Indicators + December 17: U.S. November Retail Sales + December 18: U.K. November Consumer Price Index, Eurozone November Consumer Price Index, FOMC meeting results + December 19: Bank of Japan rate decision, Bank of England rate decision + December 20: U.S. November Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index USD/JPY Chart Analysis USD/JPY successfully bounced from the 149 level and broke through the 153.500 resistance, paving the way for a potential climb toward the 157 level. In the short term, an upward trend appears likely. However, with the FOMC meeting and the BOJ monetary policy meeting scheduled this week, there is significant uncertainty regarding medium- to long-term direction. We will revisit the outlook based on the outcomes of these events. If unexpected movements occur, we will quickly adjust our strategy accordingly.
Long
by shawntime_academy
usdjpy shortusdjpy short 💎Please don't be greedy ENTRY : yellow point TP : blue lines SL : below red line for LONG position above red line for SHORT position ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1: Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2: For risk and money management: 5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20 And 3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
Short
by RODDYTRADING
USD/JPY Short term Buy read what below 1) Short Term (Maximum One Month) Rating: Buy Average Target Price: 153.00 - 155.00 Justification: Economic Data: Recent US economic data reports, including CPI and employment figures, have been strong, suggesting a resilient economy, which generally supports a stronger dollar. Interest Rates: The expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance with potential rate hikes creates upward pressure on the USD against the JPY, especially as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) shows reluctance to adjust its significantly lower rates. Market Sentiment: Analyst projections indicate a bullish trend for USD, with reports highlighting robust performance in USD over major currencies and a potential target nearing 155.00. Geopolitical Stability: The US dollar is considered a safe haven amidst geopolitical uncertainties, maintaining demand over the JPY. 2) Medium Term (6-12 Months) Rating: Hold Average Target Price: 150.00 - 152.00 Justification: Economic Outlook: While the USD looks strong in the near term, medium-term trends suggest some volatility as markets adjust to the Fed's policy changes. Exchange Rate Dynamics: Analysts indicate that USD/JPY may trade in a range as US economic growth faces headwinds from potential recession fears leading into the latter half of 2025. Inflation Impacts: If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed may need to adjust rates further, but this could lead to economic slowdowns in the US, impacting growth and therefore the USD. Bank of Japan Policy: Any shift in the BoJ’s policy, especially if it decides to hike rates, would impact the USD/JPY exchange rate and could stabilize the yen against the dollar. 3) Long Term (2-5 Years) Rating: Sell Average Target Price: 140.00 - 145.00 Justification: Economic Shifts: Over a horizon of 2-5 years, structural changes in the Japanese economy might lead to stronger growth outcomes compared to the US, encouraging a stronger yen. Demographic Trends: Japan’s demographic shifts may compel the government to adopt more aggressive fiscal policies, potentially strengthening the yen. Global Economic Position: As the global economy transitions, shifts in trade dynamics and investment flows could favor the JPY over the USD, especially if US economic dominance wanes. Long-Term Interest Rate Trends: If the BoJ is forced to raise rates while the Fed enters an easing cycle, the relative attractiveness of Japanese securities could enhance the yen’s strength against the dollar. Conclusion The USD/JPY pair is positioned for short-term gains due to robust US economic data and a hawkish Fed stance. However, the medium-term outlook reflects potential volatility and a need for cautious holding, while the long-term perspective suggests a potential depreciation of the USD against the JPY as structural factors evolve. Monitoring economic data, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical developments will be critical in refining these views.
by FreeAnas
1
BOJ RATE BRINGS USDJPY TO 145 LONG TERM The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) upcoming interest rate decision could be a pivotal moment for the USD/JPY currency pair, potentially driving it down to the 145 level. Here's why: Narrowing Interest Rate Differential: If the BoJ decides to raise interest rates or signals an intent to do so in the near future, this would narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S. The U.S. has been maintaining higher interest rates compared to Japan's negative or near-zero rates. A reduction in this gap would make holding Japanese Yen (JPY) relatively more attractive, thus strengthening the JPY against the USD. Market Expectations and Sentiment: Markets often react to expectations before they react to actual news. If there's a growing consensus or speculation that the BoJ might tighten policy, traders might preemptively adjust their portfolios, leading to a stronger JPY. Recent posts on X have hinted at expectations of BoJ rate hikes, which could fuel this sentiment. Technical Analysis Indicators: From a technical standpoint, if the BoJ surprises with hawkish comments or actions, this could trigger a sell-off in USD/JPY. The pair has been hovering around key resistance levels, and a policy shift might push it below significant support levels, potentially aiming for 145. Technical analyses often look for signs of a break below current supports, which could be catalyzed by a BoJ decision. Global Economic Conditions: The global economic landscape, including U.S. economic data like employment figures, inflation rates, and Fed policy, will also play a role. If U.S. data suggests a softening economy or if the Fed signals rate cuts, this would weaken the USD against other currencies, including the JPY. Conversely, a dovish BoJ might not lead to as significant a drop, but the current market sentiment seems to be banking on at least some tightening from Japan. Psychological Levels and Market Dynamics: The 145 mark could act as a psychological level for traders, where large volumes of trading might occur due to this round figure. If the BoJ's actions or statements align with market expectations of a policy shift, this could accelerate the move towards this level, especially if there's already momentum in that direction.
Short
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
4-hr USD/JPY: Is This an Opportunity for 160 Pip JumpUSD/JPY has resumed its uptrend, gaining over 500 pips in the past 10 days, with bulls firmly in control. This is confirmed by the Golden Cross, a strong buy signal. If USD/JPY breaks above 154.50, the pair could test the 156 zone. However, after such a significant rally, early buyers may soon take profits, leading to short-term pullbacks. Upward momentum has slowed since yesterday, so we plan to wait for a correction before entering buy trades. The area around 152.80 appears to be a potential support zone, as it aligns closely with the key 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Dip buyers who follow the ongoing uptrend could secure a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and potentially ride a rally of over 160 pips from this level.
Long
by Trendsharks
USDJPY MOVEMENT 1. The price is currently at 152.548, above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (151.725), indicating potential bullish momentum. 2. A key support zone is identified between 151.70 and 152.00, which has held the price. 3. If the price holds above the support, it may continue toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level (153.63) and potentially target the previous high near 156.71. 4. A pullback to the support zone is possible before further upward movement. 5. The overall structure shows a bullish recovery from the recent low (148.63). This setup suggests a continuation of the uptrend if support levels remain intact.
by ScorpionX_Co
Consolidation Midweek Rally #8I wanted the price to break last week’s high to confirm that it was moving upward, and this happened on Tuesday. I decided to wait for Wednesday, specifically after 2:30 PM NY time, to see if the price would return to the 15-minute order block. However, that didn’t happen. Instead, the price formed a double bottom, and below it, there was a 4-hour order block and the high of the mitigation block. Seeing this, I chose to step back and not trade. On Friday, I also didn’t trade because I avoid trading after three consecutive daily candles, even though I expected the price to create the high of the week on that day.
by Bufalodorato
USD/JPY price action: breakout rally after hawkish FedThe USD/JPY pair has surged over 2% to reach 157.51, marking the yen's weakest level in four months. This significant rally follows recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite the Fed's 25bps rate cut, the US dollar has gained strength due to the market's anticipation of only two rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with earlier expectations of four. This decision maintains the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, benefiting carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, the BoJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.25%, its highest since 2008, with potential rate hikes forecasted if economic conditions align. The US's optimistic economic projections, with rising GDP, inflation, and job growth, further bolster the dollar's appeal. As global economic uncertainties and political changes unfold, traders should monitor central bank signals to navigate the USD/JPY's trajectory and carry trade opportunities.
by tastyfx
USD/JPY SHORT POSSIBILITY FX:USDJPY If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signals or implements an interest rate hike—moving away from its traditionally ultra-low or negative rates—the yen could become more attractive to investors seeking yield, thereby strengthening against the U.S. dollar. At the same time, if the Federal Reserve moves toward a more neutral or dovish stance, pausing hikes or even contemplating cuts in response to slowing U.S. economic growth, the dollar’s yield advantage diminishes. This combination of a relatively more hawkish BOJ and a less aggressive Fed would likely reduce the interest rate differential that has been supporting the USD/JPY pair, thus increasing the probability of a downward move in USD/JPY. For retail investors I would suggest approach a cautious stand on short position and wait for confirmation from institutional money GOOD LUCK TRADERS!
Short
by alakorn_FX
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 18, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty capitalising on a modest recovery against its US counterpart from the previous day, attracting fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The latest data from Japan shows an unexpected improvement in the country's trade balance in November, driven by strong export growth. However, the data also points to weak local demand, as indicated by the decline in imports. This, along with an uncertain economic outlook amid concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, confirms expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates unchanged later this week, which will have the effect of undermining the yen. Meanwhile, the prospect of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, as well as expectations that Trump's policies could boost government borrowing and accelerate inflation, continue to support US Treasury yields. This is another factor weighing on the low-yielding JPY, although the softer risk tone helps to limit the potential for further losses. JPY bears may also choose to adopt a more cautious approach and refrain from making any significant bets ahead of a key central bank event. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting today, followed by the Bank of Japan's monetary policy update on Thursday. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 153.500, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
A USD C Leg Would Offer Mega Profits. Here's a complimenting USDJPY analysis to the C leg hypothesis explained in the below post. I've been buying USDJPY a lot recently. Heavily loading up into the aggressive crash moves intraday, moving stops to even and by this point fully expecting that nice clean rip to new daily highs, where I begin to trail stops and look to repeat into the next crash. It's started to feel really easy of late, and that's always a good reason to be cautious. Because although it is true there are times it's easy trading the trend, it is always easy trading the trend heading into the reversal. Heading into a reversal aggressive dip buying is heavily rewarded. That's what makes it feel like a good idea to dumb stuff into the reversal. The USD reversal here would be an epic trade. A case can be made for the high of USDJPY being in now and this being a bull trap rally. Inside of that case, we'd now be at the area where there is most risk of it turning. We have the 76 rejection and the 61 retest. In a strong move, we're usually going to see the 61 reject. If the USDJPY high is not made with the 76 but there is going to be a big high in it, then we'd likely see a butterfly. That'd mean a hyper bullish USD in the near future but that being a false breakout. Top to bottom that trade would pay a little over $300 per 0.01 traded. These are big numbers when you consider your risk per 100 pips is $7 trading at 0.01. USDJPY could have a little more go to fill local short level but to bet on the high being in the risk on the trade looks like this. If that trade fails as a reversal pattern then usually the most bearish thing you can hope for is a big spike to fill the butterfly. That's another great level to try to fade the move inside of a narrow zone but given that if the 76 trade fails usually the best case is a bearish butterfly - this is really bad for immediate term shorts. It'll go parabolic even if you're generally right. And if you're entirely wrong it's just going to trend against you. All pullbacks ending higher than the last. I feel like a lot of the times there are major reversals in USDJPY we see a really strong open to the week. This can come off a gap down. I remember a big USDJPY recent high being a 50 pip gap down, recovery and then 200 pips up in a minute into the high. Anything tell tale like that early in the week I'd probably be interested in fading around the resistance levels. If we keep rallying through I'll stick with my buying all dips strategy with USDJPY and review it at the 1.61 if we get there. But if we see a sharp break in this I'm going to start to act as if we're inside of a developing C leg. Inside of a big C leg the small chart action would usually be something like this. And this would pick up momentum as it went until it turned into a full blown crash. If all of that happens, I think we'll see the most spectacular of USD rallies after it. A mighty crash in USD could set the scene for a really big and sustained rally. Would be really obvious to look for if the C leg idea hits.
Short
by holeyprofit