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BUY OPPORTUNITYBuy: USD/JPY Entry Price: 153.303 Stop Loss (SL): 153.103 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 153.792 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 154.064 Support Level (200 EMA): 153.062 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 Buy position with the expectation that the price will continue rising after touching the 200 EMA support level at 153.062. The entry price of 153.303 indicates the current level is slightly above the support, where a rebound is anticipated. The stop loss (SL) at 153.103 ensures the risk is minimized in case the price doesn't hold above the support. The take profit levels (TP1 and TP2) indicate two stages for profit-taking as the price rises, with TP1 at 153.792 and TP2 at 154.064, allowing for a good risk-to-reward ratio based on your target levels.
Long
by GODOCM
USDJPY Continues Consolidation Above Key Support!Dear Friends! USD/JPY is trading sideways around 154.00 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair was weighed down by Japanese comments and a softer risk-on tone. However, a fresh rally in the US Dollar limited the pair's losses ahead of the US November Retail Sales report. From a technical point of view, USDJPY remains in an uptrend with the trendline, EMAs and price channel still favoring buyers. In the short term, keep an eye on the upper limit of the channel, which could provide fresh upside momentum for USDJPY. Wishing you happy and profitable trading.
Long
by Trader-Briannnn
USDJPY - Potential Reversal and Key Levels to WatchUSDJPY - Potential Reversal and Key Levels to Watch USDJPY pair is currently trading around 154.60, showing signs of a possible correction after a strong bullish move and today's FOMC decision. The price touched a key resistance zone beginning at around 154.50, which aligns with historical supply levels. Elliott Wave Structure The current wave count suggests that we might be nearing the completion of a larger impulsive structure. The five-wave sequence to the upside appears to be reaching exhaustion, indicating that a corrective move (potentially in the form of an ABC pattern) could follow. The completion of Wave (5) near the recent highs reinforces this corrective scenario. Key Support Levels On the downside, significant support can be found around the 150.00-152.00 range, where multiple factors come into play: Strong institutional demand is likely in this zone, as indicated by a large order block. The 0.618 and 0.764 Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous bullish (beginning in early Dec. 2024) move also converge here, offering further validation for potential buy-side activity. If the price corrects further, we expect these levels to act as a major buffer against extended downside movement. A break below 150.00, however, could open the door for deeper retracements towards 145.00 and below. Upside Potential Should the current consolidation break higher, USD/JPY could aim to retest the critical resistance between 154.50 and 156.00. A clean break above this zone would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook and open the path towards new highs, possibly targeting the 160.00 psychological level. Momentum & Volume The VOLD shows a mixed picture, with momentum slowing down but not yet turning decisively bearish. This suggests that the market is at a key inflection point, where further price action will determine the next trend. Bulls need to clear the 156.00 resistance to regain full control, while bears will be watching for a breakdown below 152.00 for confirmation of a deeper correction. Conclusion USD/JPY is trading at a critical juncture. The resistance at 154.50-156.00 will be crucial in determining whether we see a continuation of the uptrend or a deeper correction. Traders should watch for a potential pullback to the 154.00-152.00 zone as a key area for possible long entries, while a break below these levels could signal a more pronounced bearish phase. On the upside, a breakout above 156.00 would suggest that the bulls are regaining momentum and aiming for new highs.
Long
by Ochlokrat
USD/JPY 4H Timeframe AnalysisUSD/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis: The USD/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, having successfully broken key minor resistance levels, including 156.800, which has now turned into support. This break signals the continuation of bullish momentum, confirmed by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the pair broke the 157.500 minor resistance, further indicating that buyers have stepped in. The price action is now moving towards the next major resistance level at 160.900. Additionally, price action has shown signs of manipulation or liquidity grabs at key levels. The price briefly dipped below support, hunting stop losses before reversing direction. This has set up the potential for a continuation of the uptrend, as the market clears out stop losses and accumulates liquidity for the next leg up. Price Action Expectation: We are observing liquidity being formed below the 156.800 support level. We are now waiting for a breakout above 157.500 to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. The plan is to place a buy stop order at 157.690, just above the minor resistance, to enter the market once this level is broken. A stop loss will be placed below the liquidity zone at 156.500, a strategic location to manage risk. Trade Setup: Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry Price: 157.690 (just above the minor resistance after a breakout) Stop Loss: 156.500 (below the liquidity zone) Take Profit: 160.900 (next minor resistance level) Additional Considerations: The current bullish setup remains valid, but traders should be cautious of any potential reversal signs if the price fails to break above 157.500. If price action shows signs of rejection at these levels, a shift in trend could occur. Monitoring any significant news events or economic releases will also be important to avoid unexpected market moves. Conclusion: The USD/JPY pair is showing strong bullish momentum, supported by the technical breakout of key resistance levels. As the price moves toward the next resistance at 160.900, careful risk management is crucial. Traders should be prepared for possible pullbacks or consolidations around key levels while maintaining a focus on trend continuation. Economic events and market sentiment can still influence the strength of the USD against the JPY, so staying alert to these factors is essential.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
USDJPY - Potential Volatility AlertThose of you that follow USDJPY and yen crosses in general, know how quickly they can change direction within a short time frame, especially when there are big event drivers like the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions scheduled within 12 hours of each other. That is the case tonight, with the Fed interest rate decision released at 1900 GMT and the BoJ interest rate decision released early on Thursday morning at 0300 GMT. Current market expectations are for the Fed to cut 25bp (0.25%) and for BoJ to remain unchanged, potentially holding off on a further rate hike until early 2025. However, there is always the chance that either central bank produces a surprise which may increase FX market volatility. Also, in play are the comments from Fed Chairman Powell in the press conference which starts at 1930 GMT on Wednesday. There is some nervousness amongst traders surrounding what Fed policymakers may signal regarding the pace of rate cuts during 2025, given how strong the US economic data readings have been recently. Similarly, the comments of BoJ Governor Ueda regarding inflation, strength of the Japanese economy, and future rate hikes, are also important when he speaks in the BoJ press conference which starts at 0630 GMT on Thursday. USDJPY – Potential Chart Levels to Watch Clearly, the reaction to the Fed and BoJ announcements may have significant implications for USDJPY. As such, you should be aware of the potential for greater volatility which can increase risks for any open positions during these uncertain periods.  The reaction to the announcements may see swift changes in direction of price and sharp reversals of previous activity. Reduction of position sizes and more proactive placement of stops maybe required over this period.  With that in mind, we want to look at possible support and resistance levels traders may be focusing on, up to and over these decisions.  Resistance Points to Watch   Having established a low of 148.64 on December 3rd a recovery period has developed, seeing USDJPY push up to 1 month highs of 154.48 (December 16th high) at the start of this week. A possible positive development within this move higher has been the closing break above the Bollinger mid-average (currently at 152.09). This average can often act as a resistance level while falling within a downtrend in price, so the break higher above this line last week, and the mid-average changing direction from declining to flat, may reflect a potential short term momentum shift. Next resistance levels could now be marked by the November 20th session high of 155.89, or even 156.75, which was the November monthly upside extreme. Closing breaks of these levels, if seen, while not a guarantee of future upside, may be a sign of further price strength towards the July 3rd high of 161.95, Support Levels   With any potential reaction to either the Fed or BoJ announcements providing the possibility for a swift reversal of recent upside USDJPY strength, we must be aware of some support levels.  The first support focus may be the Bollinger mid-average we discussed earlier at 152.09. Interestingly, this level is very similar to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December recovery, which stands at 152.15. So, breaks below this area could be a trigger for a more extended phase of USDJPY weakness.  If the break lower was to occur, it may open the possibility of a test of the deeper 61.8 retracement level at 150.79, or even a further move towards 148.63, which is the December monthly low, although this will only be determined by future price action and is in no way guaranteed. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
USDJPY Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically.
Short
by Tonksovave
USDJPY NEOWAVE ANALYSIS (DAILY) Experimental analysis with the intention to follow back later on as I am still learning This pair really excites me. I do not know why, but it has stuck with me, so I thought I’d give this a try even though it should be considered low probability due to me going deep down to the daily. As you can see, once wave F got over, we did get a very good 5-wave rally to complete wave A. Although i have no idea yet what wave A is a part of. After the biggest daily drop since wave 2, we got some downwards movement which indicated that the rally up is over. Now using logic and good reasoning when I think about this, it’s not possible for the downside movement to end so quickly after almost 2 months of upwards movement. Hence, I will take it to believe that the correction is still ongoing and the rally we are seeing right now is a strong B wave rally of a possible flat. I do not know where wave B will end, although since I do consider it to be strong, I will expect it to completely retrace wave A. Once we know where wave B finishes, then only I could understand whether the C wave will completely retrace the B wave. Any prior sell off before retracing wave A would mean that we're looking at a triangle correction
by thekidtrader11
USDJPY M15 I Bearish Drop Based on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 154.20, a pullback resistance close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 153.61, a pullback support. The stop loss will be placed at 154.71, which is an overlap resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USD/JPY hits 5-mth high after BoJ holds ratesThe Japanese yen continues its rapid descent and is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.82, up 1.3% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 157.14, its lowest level against the US dollar since July 22. The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve on Thursday as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. The BoJ has kept rates steady since July but has signaled that it intends to normalize policy and raise rates. The central bank has been guarded about the timing of a rate hike and there was some speculation that it might raise rates at Thursday's meeting. The decision to hold rates was not unanimous, with 8 members voting in favor and one member voting for a 25-basis point hike. The rate statement did not shed much light on the BoJ's plans but Governor Ueda said at his press conference that the BoJ could afford to move slowly on raising rates since underlying inflation was only increasing at a "moderate pace". The markets expect another rate hike in the first quarter of 2025. Ueda also noted that there was uncertainty over the policies of the  incoming Trump administration. Trump has declared he will impose tariffs on US trading partners, which could affect global inflation. Interestingly, the BoJ holds its next meeting on Jan. 24, a day after Trump takes office. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut was widely expected but the market was surprised by the Fed's updated rate-cut forecast. In September, the Fed projected four rate cuts in 2025 but this was halved to just two cuts at the Wednesday meeting. US stock markets were sharply lower in response but the US dollar shined and rose sharply on Wednesday against all the major currencies, including 0.85% against the yen. At his follow-up press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he was "very optimistic" about the strength of the US economy but he was less rosy about inflation, which has stalled above the Fed's 2% target. Powell said, "we have been moving sideways on 12-month inflation", a signal that the Fed may take a pause from its easing cycle until inflation resumes its downswing. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.38 and 155.92 and is putting pressure on resistance at 156.98 154.32 and 153.78 are the next support levels
by OANDA