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JAPANESE YEN / NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR

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JPYNZD trade ideas

NZDJPY breaks 200-day SMA; downward movement imminent?The New Zealand dollar to Japanese yen currency pair (NZD/JPY) saw an uptrend on the daily chart from March 2020 to July 2024, gaining 66.58% over the four-year period. Recently, however, the pair broke below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, signaling a potential trend reversal. The 200-day SMA, which had served as support for four years, now appears to be acting as resistance. Additionally, the NZD/JPY formed a double top, indicating that buyers were once more unable to push the price above the 92.00 mark. This double top region coincides with the 50% level of the bearish Fibonacci. Upward trend in NZDJPY driven by RBNZ-BOJ interest rate differential The strong upward trend had been driven by the interest rate differential between the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen. New Zealand, like many countries around the world, slashed interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic to stimulate its economy. However, as the economy began to recover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moved to raise rates to control inflation and avoid rampant price increases. With inflation now under control, the RBNZ has started cutting rates, with yesterday marking the third consecutive cut, as the central bank reduced New Zealand’s key interest rate from 5.25% to 4.75%. Japan, on the other hand, followed the opposite path, keeping its interest rate below 0 while other countries raised borrowing costs to control inflation — which is why the JPY has depreciated so much in recent years. However, in its most recent meetings, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) — Japan’s central bank — changed its stance and raised interest rates for the first time since 2016. With New Zealand’s interest rate declining and Japan’s interest rate increasing, there is potential for a medium-term devaluation of the NZD against the JPY. Downward movement in NZDJPY possible in coming months From a technical perspective, the following factors are at play: 1. Break of the uptrend on D1. 2. The 200-day SMA, which previously acted as support, is now serving as resistance. 3. A double top has formed on the daily chart. 4. The 50% Fibonacci region is bearish. Considering these technical factors and the diverging monetary policies of the central banks in Japan and New Zealand, a downward movement in NZD/JPY is possible in the coming months. If the price manages to break below 89.75, it is possible that it will fall to the 86.70 region in a few days. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
#NZDJPY 4H#NZDJPY 4H Forecast Buy with a Channel Pattern On the 4-hour chart for #NZDJPY, the price is trading within a well-established ascending or horizontal channel, presenting an opportunity for a potential buy. However, traders must remain cautious of a possible support breakdown, which would signal a sell opportunity. Key Insights: 1. Channel Pattern: The price is currently moving within a defined channel, with clear support and resistance levels. This indicates a period of consolidation or controlled upward movement, making it ideal for range-bound or trend traders. 2. Buy Scenario (Current Channel Movement): - As long as the price remains within the channel and stays above support, there is potential for a buy. - Traders can enter buy positions near the lower support zone and ride the price toward the upper resistance of the channel. - Confirmation can come from bullish momentum near the support line or a bounce from it. 3. Sell Scenario (Support Breakdown): - If the price **breaks below the support** level of the channel, it signals a potential shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. - In this case, it would be advisable to enter sell positions once the breakdown is confirmed by volume and momentum indicators. 4. Volume Confirmation: Look for volume spikes as the price approaches support or resistance. High volume during a breakdown would confirm a stronger bearish move, while strong buying volume near support confirms a buy opportunity. 5. Stop-Loss Considerations: - For a buy position, place a stop-loss slightly below the support line to protect against any false breakouts. - For a sell position (if the support breaks), place a stop-loss just above the broken support level, now acting as resistance. Trading Strategy: - Entry: - Enter a buy position when the price bounces off support within the channel. - Enter a sell position if the price breaks down below the support level. - Take Profit: For a buy, aim for the upper resistance level of the channel. For a sell, target key support zones below the breakdown. - Stop Loss: - For a buy, set a stop-loss below the support level. - For a sell, set a stop-loss above the support-turned-resistance line to limit risk. This analysis suggests that #NZDJPY is a buy within the current channel on the 4-hour timeframe, as long as support holds. However, a **breakdown of support** would flip the outlook to a bearish sell strategy.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
nzdjpy sell tradeTrend: The trend appears to be bearish, with the price moving below the 91.500 JPY level2 3 . Support Levels: Key support levels to watch are 90.950 JPY and 90.500 JPY4 . A break below these levels could lead to further downside. Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is around 91.750 JPY5 . If the price fails to break above this level, it could reinforce the bearish outlook. Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a downward trend, indicating weakening momentum6 . Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bearish crossover, further supporting the potential for a downward move7 . Given these factors, it seems likely that NZDJPY could continue its downward trajectory in the near term. However, it's always important to consider other market factors and news that could impact the price.
Short
by Mansa_Musa_Capital
SHORT NZDJPY RR 1:4A short position on NZDJPY with a risk/reward ratio (RR) of 1:4. This trade expects the Japanese yen (JPY) to strengthen against the New Zealand dollar (NZD), predicting a decline in the NZD/JPY exchange rate. The trader is prepared to accept a certain level of risk, aiming for a potential profit four times greater than the risk taken. This strategy highlights a cautious yet profit-focused approach, with a strong emphasis on maximizing returns while controlling risk.
Short
by vutienhdc
READY FOR THE DROPDISCLAIMER The info below is just my view trade at your own risk From my POV i can say we are currently losing momentum, and with the volume activity we may be getting ready for a distribution and markdown phase back to the weekly imbalance, also on the daily if you set your charts to Heiken ashi you can see that we formed a doji which is a good pattern to confirm reversals. I will wait and see if today closes below with momentum and i will look for shorts before the Wednesday rate cut NZD event
Short
by Kush0
NZDJPY Long Term Selling Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart NZDJPY HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today NZDJPY analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NZDJPY market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NZDJPY Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000
2
A possible sell on NZDJPYI would say this could be a good sell. That last touch on the blue trend line before the price plummeted was an amazing sell entry which I missed due to the element of uncertainty on this chart. It could have been an excellent entry, nevertheless. Any way, this train has not left yet, I would think. This sell trade appears to be a good opportunity to make decent profits against some minor losses even if the price does keep going upwards. The latest two massive 1 hourly red candles could be a very good sign that the market on this chart might have finally made up its mind to keep going downwards. It seems ultimately the price is more likely to keep going downwards even if it goes up one more time to retest the resistance on the horizontal level or even up to the trend line.
Short
by RiffatNadeem
NZDJPY to continue in the upward move?NZDJPY - 24h expiry Price action looks to be forming a bottom. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. Short term bias is bullish. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 90.60 level. We look to Buy at 90.60 (stop at 89.88) Our profit targets will be 92.40 and 95.60 Resistance: 92.90 / 95.60 / 99.00 Support: 89.15 / 86.80 / 83.05 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
Buy NZD/JPY Bullish ChannelThe NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 90.80, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 91.49 2nd Support – 91.92 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 90.35. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
33