2840 trade ideas
A fifth wave is here for GoldOK friends, please note that to get a cohesive view of this Elliot Wave analysis of GLD you would have to see my first post (Gold is going down soon- then up) on Mar. 13 as the scope of the wave count is tool large to represent in 1 chart. In that post I was of the view that GLD needs to dip to complete a 4th wave then head up and I was right, one week after posting we topped out very slightly higher than the time of publishing and we subsequently dipped to within roughly a quarter of my target; 119.54 was the actual low vs. an estimate on my part of 119.31 or lower. Where I was wrong was with regards to timing, as you can see from this chart the 4th wave was very protracted.
It is notable that I did update my idea on May. 1 with the following comment: 'Still do not have sufficient evidence to enter a long position, we are at RSI resistance, have retraced 50% of the most recent drop, and may head back down. Based on a Fibonacci timing tool the 9th and 29th of this month will be dates worth watching for potential trend reversal.' It seems that the 29th of May was of significance in hindsight. Though I've been bullish for a few weeks now based in the break above the Feb. 20th high I can say in technical terms that the 5th wave is officially in progress (even w/ out breaking above that high there is such a thing as a truncated 5th wave but that's beyond the scope of this post.)
Now the question is where do we top out? There is more than one way to answer this, based on standard Elliot wave theory one should look to the 61.8 - 100% range of the rainbow colored Fibonacci region (based on the combo of waves 3 & 4) which gives us a wide price range. It is also notable that the grey shaded region to the right of the graph shows fib extensions that overlap the rainbow region, at the end of the day the best place to take profits would be in the low 130s. Thanks for reading, questions and criticisms welcome.
THE WEEK AHEAD: GLD, GDXJ, GDX, SLV, USOEARNINGS
No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week.
BROAD MARKET
EEM (15/18)
QQQ (19/19)
IWM (19/18)
SPY (19/15)
EFA (10/12)
One word ... . Well, maybe two: "Weak sauce," with ranks in the low quarter of their 52-week ranges and background implied at sub-20 across the board.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Top 5 By Rank: GLD (92/16), GDXJ (71/33), SLV (64/21), GDX (48/28), USO (47/43) TBT (52/24).
Pictured here is a GLD Synthetic Reverse Jade Lizard, explained in the post, below. For those of a more nondirectional bent, the Aug 16th 127/140 short strangle is paying 1.72 with a 70% probability of profit, although I'd recheck that setup at New York open for delta balance ... .
GDXJ: August 16th 34 short straddle, 3.45 credit with >expected move break evens, delta/theta -11.03/3.02.
GDX: August 16th 25 short straddle, 2.12 credit with >expected move break evens, but a little on the weak side in terms of credit collection. Delta/theta: -10.52/1.84.
SLV/USO: August has yet to populate ... .
In petro, my go-to is generally XOP (34/35), but the August expiry has yet to populate. Given the size of the underlying, I would probably continue to short straddle it here, assuming that it's still paying greater than 10% of the price of the underlying (i.e., >2.70 or so in credit for the short straddle nearest at-the-money).
TRADE IDEA: GLD AUG 16TH 125/126/132/135 SYNTH REV JADE LIZARDMetrics:
Max Profit: $124/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $176/contract
Break Evens: $133.24 (No Downside Risk)
Delta/Theta: -10.46/.22
Notes: A Jade Lizard is ordinarily a short put plus a short call vertical where the total credits collected exceeds the risk attributable to the short call vertical, making it a no upside risk setup. A Reverse Jade Lizard is the inverse of that -- a short call plus a short put vertical where the total credits collected exceeds the risk attributable to the short put vertical, making it a no downside risk setup. In this particular case, you would be going defined risk, but be collecting more in credit than attributable to the risk associated with the short put vertical which is a one-wide with 1.00 of max risk, so it's a no downside risk setup.
As with an iron condor or short strangle, an ideal finish is between your short strikes (126 on the put side, 132 on the call), but you'll also realize profit anywhere below 133.24 and even if the underlying retraces dramatically and blows through your short side. Naturally, strikes may have to be tweaked, depending on what /GC does between now and New York open.
GLD WEEKLY CHARTThis trade setup is 4 years in the making since this ascending pattern has been in play since 2015.if you want an example of a reversal/ascending triangle pattern breaking to the upside checkout bitcoin daily chart in the last 6 months.
this broke to the upside so I see tremendous opportunity here on this chart. Simple analysis. I'm buying longterm calls. I'm on mobile so I apologize if it doesnt post correctly.happy trading guys
131.5/132 AUG 3rd bear vertical on GLD in response to FOMCGLD, SPYDR Gold Shares ETF backed by the physical commodity, has increased dramatically following the dovish Fed sentiment out of yesterday's June FOMC meeting. Central banks worldwide have begun to indicate that they are willing to begin cutting rates, or to resume Quantitative Easing (QE) and balance sheet expansion. As Chairman Powell shifted away from the "patient" stance and indicated that changes could be imminent, saying that "the case for more accommodative policy has strengthened," markets reacted accordingly.
Gold has risen on the premise that rate cuts are coming - with bond markets pricing in a 100% chance of at least one cut in the July FOMC meeting. As gold rises more, it does so on the pretense that there will be more monetary easing; if the sentiment in July isn't as dovish as hoped, then the price of gold, and thus the value of the GLD ETF, will decrease. Using the August 3rd expiry allows us to capture the reaction from the next FOMC meeting.
Technically, the bear case is prominent: GLD is clearly overbought for a myriad of reasons. On both the day and month charts, GLD is trading above the upper Bollinger Band, the Parabolic Stop and Reverse just flipped over the candles, both stochastics have readings over 75 and both the RSI and MFI indicate values over 80.
Done for a credit of 19 cents, there is a maximum profit of $19 reached below the short strike and max loss of $31 above the long strike, per contract.
GLD 19-Jul-19GLD 19-Jul-19
30-Day IV: 11.3 +0.5
IV Pct Rank: 96% Elevated
+0.36D Long 1 Call: 129 Strike @ $1.10
-0.44D Short 1 Call: 128 Strike @ $1.45
-0.08D Credit: $0.35
FED WON'T cut rates - gold will go back downI'm anticipating the FED not cutting rates - this will cause other central banks to cut, which will force the dollar $DXY up and gold down. Chart looks like a double-top is forming with momentum sliding.
Again, the only way gold goes up if we start war with Iran which last week looked like it was going to happen. Doesn't look like most of the globe is accepting the false-flag narrative being espoused by necons.
I think the FED will cut in September or December even. At which I see a risk-off happening where people will run into stocks while gold will look lackluster against it.
Gold SPRD Trust ETF. Gold XAUUSD forecast and technical analysisIf you are looking to trade Gold SPDR Trust ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) or Gold XAUUSD cash market, the long term Gold GLD forecast is bullish. Gold ETF has been rallying for the last weeks creating new strong impulses on the weekly timeframe showing more strength on the bull side.
Currently we have a weekly supply imbalance in control around $126. As supply and demand beginner traders, we should not be trading against such an imbalance in control. Last time that imbalance was tested price dropped strongly for some weeks. We should be looking of long positions. There is a strong demand imbalance created lower around $121. Trading Gold ETFs like GLD SPDR trust is no different to trading any other precious metal. All precious metal futures follow the supply and demand principles that tell us we shouldn’t be buying after a very strong rally or selling after a very strong drop. Trading is all about waiting for the right scenario before pulling the trigger blindly.
As a swing trader, you should not be looking to go long now on GLD SPDR trust or Gold XAUUSD. Watch GLD SPDR trust video analysis below for full details.
GLD Breakout rejectedFeds probably aren't going to cut rates next week based on retail and industrial data. Dollar heading up, gold heading down. Of course things can change over the weekend, but it sure looks like the breakout got rejected.
Definitely fell off the trendline, might get a back test though. We'll find out next week I guess, because I'm holding this until Wed morning.
War with Iran - Gold $GLD is going upThe one reason gold would skyrocket as I said before is war with Iran, and now we have some explosions in the Strait of Hormuz. $GLD will go to 132 - if no war it will drop from there.
GLD making moves, needs a breather.GLD needs a pull back here to go higher and on to test the '14 highs around 133 which is the .618 area of the multi-year move lower.
Sell $GLD Double Top on Daily ChartDouble-top, gold smash coming up. Sell calls or buy puts...
$JNUG $JDST $DUST $NUGT $GLD $SLV $UGLD $USLV $GDX $GDXJ
$GLD Classic Overbought Short Set-upVirtually any time you see a daily candle explode above the upper Bollinger band, with RSI > 80, AND the stock trades below the open price, it is an EXCEPTIONALLY good short opportunity!
Hedge at 132-135 for Gold $GLDBeen stuck in the channel, run-up was fun. Expect a large gold smash coming - always does before it takes off. I would buy puts on a low IV miner which moves more with gold. You could also sell calls right now above that and not worry about being called away imo.
GLD and the world nowGLD /// 2yr top is 127 ish
will Geopolitical events drive it there or over that???
the next top is 130 ish
My gut take is.. its time to open down position in GLL say 25%
