BUNDThe upmove after the correction has failed for me. Now look at the flag. Only if this break down is a sell, otherwise we must look for more uptrend. It's a bit tricky.
Good luck.
BUND trade ideas
BUND 10Y -Short Gartley -Target 150 on weekly BAT RRR 7,5Potentially big moves on Bund and T Notes after FOMC
Here my take on Bund -
On short scale Gartley is completing right now , my target in extension on building potential BAT pattern
Short entry point at area of 165,5 , Target 150
Great RRR 7,5
Bund may lose momentum at resistance - watch for shortWatch Heikin-Ashi signal here. It can be a nice swing sell soon. No more comment for now.
Bund - ShortIf the downwards sloping trend line is respected I'll wait to see if a bullish or bearish bias is generated and enter accordingly.
At present when not at the charts I've got this short in from two key levels, however due to the UK general election risk is half and if price consolidates or moves slowly i'll take the order out accordingly.
BUND 12h chart - risk-off mode supports next leg higherWe had the Manchester terror attack overnight and Indices seem to continue with their correction mode. This is basically risk-off mode in early Europe trade environment, BUND should gain a bit short-term. Long-term I see downwards traction, but I`ll provide a big picture chart for that later.
Other alternatives in risk-off mode :
GER30 ( DAX ) short
EURUSD short
EURJPY short
DXY long
Tick - Tock, up from the lows.Heikin-Ashi buy signal from trend support.
The ollapse will happen later this year, not now.
You also have to watch out for June/Sept roll. Technically this will cause a spike in continous chart this time, as FGBLU7 is trading in premium to FGBLM7.
I am out of all German bond shorts. Looking to re-sell higher.
BUND 4h LONGPrice could find new demand here, big players will seek protection in case of a " sell in May " correction
BUNDThe run was good but now it's tricky. 164,00 is a good level for short, but if the dax goes down the BUND can go to 166,00! So we will see it next week i think.
before contract change in june 8th, we see 166,00 and than short till 161,00/160,00.
And for the longer time we have to look when this bubble burst. That's the biggest bubble we've ever seen. Look at the spread till german 10y rate and french 10y rate!
Good luck to all and have a nice weekend.
#Bund bird view - once 159 goes, the yield blows- Ichimoku setup has bearish bias, but for a confirmed strategic bearish Kumo breakout it has to fulfil one more criteria: a close below the last reaction low!
- A lower low close would also break the 4 years long bullish trendline, which was touched during last few weeks.
- Please note that this is the chart of the continous (non tradable) contract, which includes the discount and premium changes between each tradable front contract change. Most of people don't understand the reason behind these gaps between certain contracts. This is mainly due to the Cheapest To Delivery bond calculation process. Why is it important? Because now we are trading FGBLM7 (June contract) at 159,95, but the next tradable FGBMU7 (September contract) trades 150 points higher, at 161,45.
If the triangle will not break on the lower side until June contract maturity, then by contract change time (8/June) the continous contract chart could technically spike, while the underlying 10y bond yield may not change at all.
- Anyway, even from this continous chart it looks like some consolidation has started above 159. Not the best time and level to enter shorts.
If June contract could move up to 162,50 +/-, there we'll have to look for a sell signal.
- The absolute key level will be 159+ (which tradable front contract will break it, we don't know)
What we know is that the bond markets are in a bubble. So is the German bond market, especially on the shorter maturities, which still trade at negative yields! This bubble will burst once, and then the move will be quick and dramatic.
Maybe ECB will try to contain it, maybe that's why they are leaking the possibility of a rate hike before they start taper their QE program. That would mean they could still support an artificial bid side to Euro bonds, just at a higher set yield level.
If this is really their goal, then probably this trend will break finally by around end of summer, beginning of Autumn this year.
Keep your eyes on it! And always look for a sell signal only! Bubbles we don't like to buy!
Euro-Bund big correctionEuro-Bund starts to have more corrective moves.
The last week Euro-Bund correction add some strength to Euro against most of currencies.
If the price of Euro-Bund continue to fall, we may see more strength in the Euro.
Euro-Bund is challenging a major support levels.
A bigger drop or a massive correction of Euro-Bund, may even put pressure on ECB to revise the Interest Rate.
BUND Now we have a new contract. Little bit more down and than up ist my opinion.
Cause the 10ytreasury hike ist now at 45 BP. That's a lot! Max for me ist 60 BP and than correction.
Look at your plan.
A pull back soon- A perfect channel, price at channel top and horizontal key resistance.
- Ichimku setup is bullish, but as price is bit far above Kijun Sen and close to resistance, consolidation or pull back may happen.
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish, but as haDelta+ reaches extreme highs at 0,85+, a start of consolidation in coming days is very likely.
- Key supports for Bund are 164,70 / 163,85 and 162 (major bullish trendline)
BUND FUT - HEAD n SHOULDER?Above 164.60 possible bullish H&S with target @ 167.30 matching the yield in 0,20/0,15% range
BUND 4 hThis is my opinon for the BUND. It looks like a flag for futher downmove to 160,00 maybe 159,50.
And than up. The german rates are now very high. So be carefully trading.
I'm sorry for my lines...
Bund : 60 minutiIl Bund dopo il ritracciamento partito da 164.50 ha raggiunto il supporto statico 163.
Il movimento attuale è ingabbiato entro le prime pile di opzioni call e put . Al link un chiarimento riguardante questo punto
youtu.be
BUNDnow we are in a range 165,50 to the upside an 160,00/195,50 to the downside
if we look at the options on the bund www.eurexchange.com
we see the highest oi at 165,50 with 26088 contracts for calls jan.
for put 2017 jan ar oi 35,308 contracts at 160,00. an it can be a down till 158,00 what this says now. But we have to look longer what they do.
This is not a trading advice. Trade your own plan please.
Merry Christmas for all...
Taper trouble ahead?Weekly:
- Ichimoku neutral, with bearish bias ahead. Price, Tenkan and Kijun are all in a thick Kumo, and major bullish trendline is not too far away.
- Heikin-Ashi shows indecision for the third week. Actually for 4 weeks now in a row price couldn't break above Kijun Sen at 163,77. haDelta and haOscillator are still above their mid lines.
- MACD shows consolidation.
- EWO is neutral
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is still bullish, but there is serious problem with momentum: failure above 164, and a lower high. Price is testing Kijun Sen again. Shuld it close below, bulls will be in a deep trouble! Real selling pressure would come beow 162.
- Heikin-Ashi reversed to bearish with haDelta and haDelta+ below zero now.
- EWO and MACD are drifting lower, but they are not yet bearish.
Will ECB save this idiot bond bubble once more, or is the big time closer then we think?
Indecision at equilibrium now, a big short laterPlease note this is a weekly chart!
- Ichimoku: Neutral, with minor bearish bias ahead. Price is at equilibrium level.
- Uptrend is still valid, but trendline is quite close, matching bottom of spot Kumo cloud at 160+
- Heikin-Ashi candle and indicators show indecision for the second week. Swing bullish price action stopped at/below Kijun Sen
- EWO is back to zero, slightly bearish still.
We may see few more weeks (months?) of some choppy price action in the neutral zone. But if you read the news carefully, European fiscal stimulus starting from Germany will slowly become a reality. This means ECB will step back and will start normalizing rates this year. I guess you all remember what happened with US Treasury market last year... well, same will happen to the German bond curve.
European bond short is going to be one of the biggest trades of 2017! Just wait for the proper signal. Until hold only small short BOBL and Bund exposure.
A Potential winning tradeGuys,
Based on the left structure and the price movement, I am expecting a downside move in the following days, however, a potential reverse may occur based on the weak Euro, anyway, the red box is the stop loss and green is our target.
Success
RandR
BUND - waiting for pullback to go longHello to me Bund is shouting long. It would be nice to have a pullback as a buying entry.
In my chart I outline some possible scenarios.
The important factor is that it broke the black dotted bearish trend line connecting P0 - P2 (the line of maximum excursion) and now is ready to go long. Medium term targets are 166 and 168.
TVC:EUBUND
BUND2016.12.02 The bigger view for me.
For me we are under 160,73 maybe 161,00 in a downtrend.
Watch out traders they will make big volatility i thing.
Bunds still contained below 164.396/1: Bunds still contained below 164.39. Watching for a break in either direction. Short bias.
