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Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City AverageConsumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City AverageConsumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average

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CPIAUCSL trade ideas

CPI - 08:30 Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) @ 4.0% / FOMC @ 2PM ESTIn August, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the CPI has risen 5.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in August; up 4.0 percent over the year. The CPI is an important government statistic as it affects a number of public programs and is used as to benchmark public policy. Its accuracy is limited against REAL inflation measures. It will have an important impact on the ALL Markets Today, ahead of the FOMC Policy Statement @ 2PM EST where the Taper announcement rollout may or may not be provided in detail. G20 Meetings all Day. FED Coupon Purchases @ $6.025 Billion 4.5Yr to 7Yr @ 10:10AM to 10:30AM EST.
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by HK_L61
7
Do not expect lower Inflation, Housing market will fuel it soonThe median sales price of existing homes in the US: increased+19.5% in the first half of 2021 The homeownership rate in the US decreased from 67.90 to 65.40% between April 2020 and April 2021, but prices jumped 20% in the same timeframe. Max sales volume Oct 2020 - Jan 2021: during the correction in prices Homeowner Vacancy Rate in the United States: lowest in the past 65 years: The rent cost for tenants increased 3.2%/year in the past decade! sofar it is increased +1.17% in 2021. The biggest wildcard for U.S. inflation over the next year doesn’t come from used cars or airline fares. Instead, it is housing. Officials at the Federal Reserve and the White House have highlighted what many forecasters expect will be the temporary nature of elevated price readings stemming from the reopening of the economy following pandemic-related restrictions.(WSJ) Economists say rent is one area that is not yet showing strong gains, but it could become one of the more persistent factors in higher consumer prices. Rent and owners’ equivalent rent cover housing costs and are about a third of CPI. Inflation in rent is stickier and more persistent than other price pressures. In the CPI, rent rose slightly slower in July than in June. “The rent component is dramatically understated relative to reality, which means in the next couple of months, rent is going to catch up,” Bleakley Global Advisors chief investment officer Peter Boockvar said. “Rental increases, which is the biggest chunk are only going to accelerate here. I don’t see rent increases as transitory.” Boockvar said the Apartment List National Rent Report showed a rise of 2.5% in rental prices from June to July and an 11.4% increase for 2021 so far. (CNBC) Conclusion: I believe these data clearly show it is very unlikely we see a housing market crash, but we are going to see a higher cost of "Rent" for tenants and higher homes prices in the coming months! This will lead to higher Inflation rates in long term..! While many think these inflation rates are temporary, I believe the deceleration (last month) is temporary..!
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Moshkelgosha
6
Deflation, Hyperinflation, and You; Work In ProgressDisclaimer This is a work in progress series for a much longer form article I am writing (perhaps a bit academic in nature). I am working out several key concepts, making the arguments to myself back and forth, and teasing the waters hoping for some conflicting data (open-market criticism). To this end, I present a contrarian economic concept that might help in the coming times: Deflation; the Myth, the legend Deflation isn't real. Defining deflation as the cost of living decreasing, and utilizing CPI, a metric for the cost of living, deflation is entirely and unanimously thrown away. In fact, the only period where cost of living stands relatively still in modern times is post-2008 crash when real estate as a whole blew up, significantly reducing the CPI, while the inflation on all other goods and services increased dramatically. The M1 money supply is the amount of money within cash and savings accounts, and the amount of cash in circulation. I consider this the workers economy. Small savings accounts are the most likely to get raided in the event of an economic incident, while cash and credit accounts are fluid and change hands constantly, this concept being the velocity of money. The M2 money supply is the amount of money within M1 + savings accounts under 100k + money markets (active investments). I call this the working economy as a lot of small businesses get lumped in, as well as the working capital of larger corporations. The M3 money supply is all of the money. Every notational of value within the confines of the economy of the United States. The CPI and M1 stay fairly close to each other in olden times of more conservative economic policy. By limiting the growth of the system, you limit the ability for entities to amass at the boundaries. This is to say, that by preventing dramatic growth, the prices of everything can stay relatively the same. Salaries not increasing is ok, because nothing is getting more expensive, or it is but very slowly. Thus, as society develops, maybe a little more slowly due to decreased economic rewards, it should develop equally as the economy has more time to diversify and find a way to equalize salaries. Economic theories used in the earlier 1900s were ones of order; by bringing slow growth and a steady hand, growth can be spread equally and fairly according to rank and file. This wasn't just theory, it was a necessity. Every other country had some ability to economically limit the other, even at the height of the British Empire, it was not above it's debt collectors. As the world was forced off the gold standard, so was it, too, forced off any ability to financially normalize among parties. When the only ability to argue about relative currency value is war, and it is absolutely clear that no one really wins that war, whatever little economic arguments there are, become meaningless. The world economy is the members' economies, and those members' economies rely on the concept that there will never be a debt collection call and everyone can continue to print assets following a specific set of rules. Post-2008, the only solution the Federal Reserve saw forward was to continue to print money, because it has no other abilities. The Federal Reserve is owned by the banks it is supposed to regulate, it is inherently self-interested and corrupt, because any entity that profits off of it's own labours may never make an unbiased decision against it. Thus, we saw, for the first time in 44 years of expansive monetary policy directed at abroad (perpetuating unfettered rooting of American companies, and America's economy, into every developing nation), come home to the workers economy. Real economists could tell you why, but this analyst believes it's just a natural spring from the greater M3 & M2 economies forced by the collapse of many international trade deals, allowing/forcing more at-home growth to develop. The massive jump in the M1/M2/M3 in 2020 is more than just government checks to people, it was massive and secretive government checks to the banks, and massive non-secretive government checks to Blackrock. Given that the cost of living has closely followed the rate of M2, and that the M1 money supply has increased at a hyperinflationary rate, it is of sound hypothesis to consider that the cost of living too, will undergo hyperinflation. While there remains sector pressures for independent cases of deflation, there is no reduction in the total cost of living, and that deflation driven by worker persecution or technological innovation is a transfer in product costs to technological costs, and that reductions in the cost of specific elements of the cost of living; shelter, food, health, transportation costs consecutively increase in cost so too as does the total monetary supply as each element of the underlying formula of total economic cost fights for some new majority of growth. Deflation requires one simple principle to be possible; the cost of living decreases. While more dollars can get printed, and the USD FOREX (how much the dollar is in comparison to other currencies) can increase, the individual's dollars do not increase and the demand for more raises commensurate against this. In essence, stronger dollar means a systematic increase in the cost of goods and the overall cost of life. Printing money increases the overall pool of money, creating demand by those feeding off that pool to amass more of it, systematically increasing the cost of life. The only thing that decreases the cost of living is government regulations specifically inhibiting the price increase of specific forward facing assets such as housing, food, internet, power, water, transportation, physical healthcare, and goods + services providing mental healthcare. An alternative is to inflate the money pool at a rate faster than the "natural" growth of the costs. This policy might look like a universal basic income, more social welfare benefits, some form of money sent directly to the people. However, the hidden cost becomes the cost of labour. As the demands of life decrease such that the general willingness to do hard labour and tasks decreases, the need to increase the value package given to the workers. As this cycle of stimulus --> labour squeeze --> Increased pay and worker rights --> increased cost of living --> stimulus --> continues on and on, this author's theory of Perpetual Cyclical Doom is reinforced. In terms of Elliot Waves, this has to be 3? 1990s saw a significant rise in worker pay and rights, 2000s crash was wave 2 with the beginnings of hyperinflation, and now we are at wave 3? Disclaimer Thanks for reading! This is sure to be a continuing cycle of irregular publishing. This author spends a significant amount of time trying to define and shape major issues into something that flows well into an easy explanation. Twitter is a great way to semi-organize these as little thought blurbs, but this is a great way to get a solid chapter written and seeing how it works. I apologize for forcing y'all to be my test subjects, but if I am going to make y'all rich by teaching very surgical skills in company and stock research, I am going to spend time and effort to give y'all some skills to look at the bigger picture and decide how you want to fit in it.
FRED:CPIAUCSLLong
by DoctorFaustus
CPI 1M : What Is Your Plan Against Inflation ? " The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (CPIAUCSL) is a measure of the average monthly change in the price for goods and services paid by urban consumers between any two time periods. It can also represent the buying habits of urban consumers. This particular index includes roughly 88 percent of the total population, accounting for wage earners, clerical workers, technical workers, self-employed, short-term workers, unemployed, retirees, and those not in the labor force. The CPIs are based on prices for food, clothing, shelter, and fuels; transportation fares; service fees (e.g., water and sewer service); and sales taxes. Prices are collected monthly from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000 retail establishments across 87 urban areas. To calculate the index, price changes are averaged with weights representing their importance in the spending of the particular group. The index measures price changes (as a percent change) from a predetermined reference date. In addition to the original unadjusted index distributed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also releases a seasonally adjusted index. The unadjusted series reflects all factors that may influence a change in prices. However, it can be very useful to look at the seasonally adjusted CPI , which removes the effects of seasonal changes, such as weather, school year, production cycles, and holidays. The CPI can be used to recognize periods of inflation and deflation. Significant increases in the CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of inflation , and significant decreases in CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of deflation. However, because the CPI includes volatile food and oil prices, it might not be a reliable measure of inflationary and deflationary periods. For more accurate detection, the core CPI (CPILFESL) is often used. When using the CPI , please note that it is not applicable to all consumers and should not be used to determine relative living costs. Additionally, the CPI is a statistical measure vulnerable to sampling error since it is based on a sample of prices and not the complete average. What Is Inflation? Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. A quantitative estimate of the rate at which the decline in purchasing power occurs can be reflected in the increase of an average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy over some period of time. The rise in the general level of prices often expressed as a percentage, means that a unit of currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods. Inflation is the rate at which the value of a currency is falling and consequently, the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. Inflation is sometimes classified into three types: Demand-Pull inflation , Cost-Push inflation , and Built-In inflation . The most commonly used inflation indexes are the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Inflation can be viewed positively or negatively depending on the individual viewpoint and rate of change . Those with tangible assets, like property or stocked commodities , may like to see some inflation as that raises the value of their assets. People holding cash may not like inflation , as it erodes the value of their cash holdings. Ideally, an optimum level of inflation is required to promote spending to a certain extent instead of saving, thereby nurturing economic growth. Micheal J Burry is the real genius..! I would rather to Bet on the accelerated inflation in the coming months..! " Moshkelgosha
FRED:CPIAUCSLLong
by Cryptorganism
As expected inflation increase slowing down, far above consensusSo here is a big surprise hey: As I said it would be, the inflation numbers are far worse than what was predicted by the consensus of mindless trolls managing billions or advising billions, and it is likely to continue for 3 years. Once again it was even higher than the upper end predictions. The increase was only an increase of 0.4%. For now it is slowing down. I do not know what their plans will be in the next years: buy as much time as possible (stay in the status quo of the last year), or increase inflation hard to redistribute wealth, or follow what Japan did? s3.tradingview.com Of course, even if the numbers were far beyond predictions, it did not stop trollvestors from being positive and throwing money at the us dollar, 5% isn't that bad and the increase in inflation is slowing down (and they are mega biased). Herds and whales have their bias and they will keep throwing money where they want to throw money. Reality does not matter much in this game. I don't even know how autists can make money (they do not understand emotions and irrational clowns). Michael Burry shorted debt way too early, and he bought GME because the price was below value and then got out too early, I guess they can make money carefully analysing 10-Qs and numbers and taking position when the numbers are way disconnected from what they should be. But then they need to either buy and hold shares for as long as it takes or some special tools like options and CDS because their timing is always terrible and the price can go strongly against them (longer than they can stay solvent). I guess eventually if inflation keeps going the USD will have no choice but to drop. The whole planet is not going to put chains around their necks and become slaves to the USA. But do they plan on keeping it up? And how high? I cannot tell when it will happen if they do keep inflation up. Once it starts (continues) there are ways to join the trend. Till then USD will continue to grow more overvalued. Is 5% enough to clear the debts over time and pay for social programs? Would take a really long while and at some point maybe the world isn't going to want to pay a 5% premium to a nation-bank for the privilege of storing their money. Next CPI numbers here is my call: 5.5%. I guess we end the year at somewhere around 5%. They do not have crazy plans afaik. Plus the fools they leech won't be startled at 5% on the year, got to take it slow, like a boiling frog, or a better example would be "like a boiling human" I don't know what frogs have done they are better at noticing change than humans, if they want to increase inflation further (or don't want but want things that increases it and can't avoid it) it is better to wait 2022 and slowly prop it up to say 9% then once dum dums start to worry slow it down to reassure them and let the rate up there and let them get used to it and see it as normal. 10% is a psychological barrier so best to avoid it for a while.
FRED:CPIAUCSLLong
by MrRenev
1
Expect Higher Inflation, Miracles do not happen overnight..!On May 30th, 2021, I wrote an article about Inflation "Accelerated inflation in the past year entered a new phase!" Let's see what has happened to inflation FRED:CPIAUCSL since May 2020: May 2020: FRED:CPIAUCSL Dropped from +1SD to -1SD (in 3 months) May 2020 - February 2021: FRED:CPIAUCSL Passed +1SD once again (in 9 months) April 2021: FRED:CPIAUCSL Passed +2SD May 2021: FRED:CPIAUCSL Passed +3SD What makes all these data important is the rate of change in the past 4 months! What is the Rate of Change (ROC)? The rate of change (ROC) is the speed at which variable changes over a specific period of time. Today rate of change for inflation is at the highest level since September 2008..! Several asset classes perform well in inflationary environments. Tangible assets, like real estate and commodities, have historically been seen as inflation hedges. Some specialized securities can maintain a portfolio's buying power including certain sector stocks, inflation-indexed bonds, and securitized debt. Inflation-sensitive investments are accessed in a variety of ways as both direct and indirect investments. If you are interested to learn more about higher inflation and how it could affect markets read the educational articles: Educational Article: Standard deviation: www.investopedia.com Rate of Change: www.investopedia.com Inflation: www.investopedia.com
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Moshkelgosha
6
A long time coming.I have been testing and researching a new strategy for a long while now and I wanted to make sure it worked before presenting, I hope you all enjoy. Without further ado, let's start off the day with tracking the core of the market. VIX, DXY, oil and debt. This is my market tracker. as you can see, oil looking good, VIX in a manipulated range, DXY looking about equal to the vix and inflation and debt relative to the M2 and money velocity is as expected. All four of these are on the day. Next up is silver.
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Joshuakm
1
Understanding Inflation: Is it transitory or persistence? The velocity of money (M2V) is the rate at which consumers and businesses spend money and it’s calculated as the ratio of gross domestic product to the country’s money supply. MV = PY or V = PY/M M: Money growth. V: velocity of money (or the rate at which people spend money). P: the general price level or inflation Y: the number of goods and services produced or real GDP From the first equations we can also derive the following: delta M + delta V = delta P + delta Q Delta-M: Change in money growth Delta-V: Change in the velocity of money Delta-P: Change in prices Delta-Y: Change in real GDP According to Irving Fisher’s theory if the interest rates are fixed and people don’t hold their money, then the velocity of money is a constant. Changing our previous formula to: delta M = delta P + delta Q Money growth = real GDP + inflation Or delta P = delta M – delta Y Inflation = real GDP – Money growth So, if money growth exceeds real GDP, then we would see real inflation. But a fast-growing country would have a faster-growing GDP and the government must print money to prevent deflation in the long run. Since real GDP is also related to the development of economic resources and technologies, it’s considered to be constant short term making the argument that money growth is directly proportional to inflation. Therefore, when a huge amount of money was printed last year, we expected to see some inflation that we are seeing right now. Now the issue is that the Velocity of money is not constant, and hints about the economic strength and people’s wiliness to spend money. So, if there is a lot of money printed but people are too afraid to spend it then velocity should decline. One reason for people not spending money is the low-interest rates, making bonds less interesting for investors. But not only people did not spend their money, as usual, there were also fewer transactions and sharp decline in GDP due to lockdowns and the fact that some sectors were completely shut down during the pandemic. As you can see on the chart, with a reopening the GDP has been catching up and might exceed the money supply bringing the velocity back to its previous rates or higher. With the reopening, we also have more people spending their money causing a spike in demands for goods and services in a relatively short period while the economy is taking it's up to meet this demand. Therefore, many investors are considering inflation a threat that may lead to increased interest rates. Although the velocity of money is said to be too variable in the short term and is not a good indicator of inflation, it’s interesting to see its relationship with US Bond 10-year yield. Now the question is why some economists think inflation is transitory and not persistent? There are a few reasons: 1. As you may have noticed yesterday the commodities had a huge drop and should continue going down with the reopening reducing business costs and ultimately contributing to lower prices. 2. Employers have been forced to increase wages and that’s a permanent decision because they can’t reduce the wages once they increased them. However, with technological advancements, people are constantly being replaced with machines and robots, which could ultimately reduce the business costs over time. 3. There is more demand than supply because of increased money growth which could lead to inflation. However, with the reopening and by the time the unemployment benefits stop by September, people are forced to get back to work, and GDP would spike up. Since the government is going to stop or reduced the rate of money growth, higher real GDP would cause a relative deflation and bring our current state of inflation back to 2%. In conclusion, the inflation rate that we are seeing right now should go back to normal within a year or two. That would be a sign for rather a healthy economy making the case for tapering and the dot plot to be skewed toward even higher interest rates for 2023 and 2024. This is a simplified version of what's going on so please feel free to share your thoughts and analysis in the comment section. Also, if you are interested to see how bitcoin fits into our current economic cycle, check this out and let me know what you think:
FRED:CPIAUCSLEducation
by MarkitMaven
29
What could be the most probable scenario?May 2021 CPI is released today and with a 0.7% increase month to month, it is now 269.195. The CPI (YoY) is now at 5% which is the highest in the last 30 years..! The most important thing is the change from linear growth to exponential rate and passing above the 3 standard deviations of the regression line! which means we are facing a phenomenon with a 1.5 in 1000 chance of happening! It would be wise to Bet on higher inflation..! Micheal J Burry showed everyone that he is a living legend in the financial world..! what should we do? what are the solutions? 1- Gold: preserve purchasing power 2- Commodities: already adjusted 3- Real Estate: will be hot for the next 2 years 4- Stocks: Thoe related to commodities or having price gauging ability, and banks. I believe FED is targeting 6% to boost employment and solving the US debt crisis in the coming years. They can not decrease the money supply because it will lead to a higher unemployment rate, but at some point, they may increase the interest rates to control the uncontrolled inflation! please check my US dollar index analysis which shows in the next 5-6 years US dollar could lose up to 30% of its power!
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Moshkelgosha
2
How the government could control inflation?Causes of Inflation An increase in the supply of money is the root of inflation. Money supply can be increased by the monetary authorities either by printing and giving away more money to the individuals, by legally devaluing (reducing the value of) the legal tender currency, more (most commonly) by loaning new money into existence as reserve account credits through the banking system by purchasing government bonds from banks on the secondary market. Now let's look at Economic plans and their effect: 1- The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, the first leg of Biden's economic plan, is the law. ( Increase inflation) 2- Provide health insurance coverage for 97% of Americans in 10 years. ( Increase inflation) 3- Raise an additional $4 trillion in tax revenue by increasing the top tax rate to 39.6%, taxing capital gains at ordinary rates, and raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. (Anti-inflation) 4- Forgive student loan debt and make college free for those making up to $125,000. ( Increase inflation) 5- Raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour and repeal "right to work" laws. (Increase inflation) 6- Expand "Buy American" policies through government purchasing while using subsidies, federal matching, and incentives to make American products more competitive. 7- Invest $1.3 trillion in infrastructure over 10 years. ( Increase inflation) 8- Spend $2 trillion on clean energy during his first term as president. ( Increase inflation) As you see all of the above will increase the money supply directly or indirectly and cause more inflation, except increasing Taxes! The most important question is what else could the government do to control accelerated inflation? Governments can employ a contractionary monetary policy to fight inflation by reducing the money supply within an economy via decreased bond prices and increased interest rates. The problem is any contractionary monetary policy to fight inflation by reducing the money supply will have collateral damage! and the Stock market will pay for that! I think sooner or later interest rates will be increased to control inflation, and we should wat for the market response! Moshkelgosha Educational Articles: Inflation www.investopedia.com What Causes Inflation and Who Profits From It? www.investopedia.com 9 Assets for Protection Against Inflation www.investopedia.com Inflation and Economic Recovery www.investopedia.com Inflation and Economic Recovery www.investopedia.com What You Should Know About Inflation www.investopedia.com Understand the Different Types of Inflation www.investopedia.com How to Profit From Inflation www.investopedia.com
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Moshkelgosha
3
Accelerated inflation in the past year entered a new phase!The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (CPIAUCSL) is a measure of the average monthly change in the price for goods and services paid by urban consumers between any two time periods. It can also represent the buying habits of urban consumers. This particular index includes roughly 88 percent of the total population, accounting for wage earners, clerical workers, technical workers, self-employed, short-term workers, unemployed, retirees, and those not in the labor force. The CPIs are based on prices for food, clothing, shelter, and fuels; transportation fares; service fees (e.g., water and sewer service); and sales taxes. Prices are collected monthly from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000 retail establishments across 87 urban areas. To calculate the index, price changes are averaged with weights representing their importance in the spending of the particular group. The index measures price changes (as a percent change) from a predetermined reference date. In addition to the original unadjusted index distributed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also releases a seasonally adjusted index. The unadjusted series reflects all factors that may influence a change in prices. However, it can be very useful to look at the seasonally adjusted CPI, which removes the effects of seasonal changes, such as weather, school year, production cycles, and holidays. The CPI can be used to recognize periods of inflation and deflation. Significant increases in the CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of inflation, and significant decreases in CPI within a short time frame might indicate a period of deflation. However, because the CPI includes volatile food and oil prices, it might not be a reliable measure of inflationary and deflationary periods. For more accurate detection, the core CPI (CPILFESL) is often used. When using the CPI, please note that it is not applicable to all consumers and should not be used to determine relative living costs. Additionally, the CPI is a statistical measure vulnerable to sampling error since it is based on a sample of prices and not the complete average. FRED:CPILFESL What Is Inflation? Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. A quantitative estimate of the rate at which the decline in purchasing power occurs can be reflected in the increase of an average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy over some period of time. The rise in the general level of prices often expressed as a percentage, means that a unit of currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods. Inflation is the rate at which the value of a currency is falling and consequently, the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. Inflation is sometimes classified into three types: Demand-Pull inflation, Cost-Push inflation, and Built-In inflation. The most commonly used inflation indexes are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). Inflation can be viewed positively or negatively depending on the individual viewpoint and rate of change. Those with tangible assets, like property or stocked commodities, may like to see some inflation as that raises the value of their assets. People holding cash may not like inflation, as it erodes the value of their cash holdings. Ideally, an optimum level of inflation is required to promote spending to a certain extent instead of saving, thereby nurturing economic growth. Micheal J Burry is the real genius..! I would rather to Bet on the accelerated inflation in the coming months..! Educational Article: www.investopedia.com fred.stlouisfed.org
FRED:CPIAUCSLLong
by Moshkelgosha
52
Big inflation numbersThe S&P had a small drop this week and it was attributed to the recent inflation numbers. This wednesday the 4.2% number was released, a large increase, and it was above the 3.6% predictions consensus. The CPI versus DJI: Fed Fund rate: Rate vs DJI: Yellen which I guess is head of the FED now said they might have to increase rates. Let's be real and keep it short, clearly their goal would be to slow down inflation a bit, with a small rate, not to crash the stock market. All the depression -60% S&P permabears are just crazy. All the people saying a rate increase will crash the stock market are too lazy to look at what happened in the past? They're part of a worldwide conspiracy to prank us? Aliens have hidden cameras? It's just beyond... All you need to know is in 2007-2008: - Zimbabwe interest rates were at 600 then 1200% - Inflation was at billions of percents - The stock market went to the moon Also big inflation is back in Zimbabwe, rates are at 40% have been at 20-60% in the last years, and: "For the fifth time in Zimbabwe’s history, its currency has just collapsed…" "Zimbabwe Shutters Stock Exchange, Blocks All Mobile Money Payments As Currency Collapses (Again)" HAHAHAHA: "The government claims mobile payment operators and the stock exchange are either deliberately or inadvertently acting to sabotage the economy, and are the cause of the Zimdollar’s volatile black market exchange rate." Zimbabweans don't give a rats ass about their government ponzi scheme returning 1 million percent interest in monopoly money. They even rather buy crypto. All value in the country just pours into the stock market. And then the government whines that it's the stock market fault if they are incompetent. Also to keep in mind Warren Buffett bough Coca Cola in 88 and companies were way undervalued and dividends were insane. And all boomers that are mind bogglingly ignorant give people as advice "save your money keep it at the bank" because they used to get huge interest. In the 60s there was a NWO, and then the US entered into consumerism. Back in the 70s there was mega inflation it was a big period of growth. It was good inflation. Now there are bad demographics, big debts, and truckers that say they won't go back to work unless they get paid $100K a year, everyone is on benefits. Well to sum up just look at France: it is a good way to predict the future. High unemployment and people not even looking for jobs, while companies struggle to hire people. A GDP growth of 0 (while taking lots of debt), so in reality it declined for a good 20 years. So obviously the current inflation is bad inflation. Manipulating numbers is cute, but the fundamentals are way more important and crush all the rest. What can you do if supply is low, people don't want to go to work, people go retire with no kids to replace them, no one knows how to build stuff because it's all being made in China, Mexico, or Germany, terrorists ransom companies, terrorists riot in the streets and destroy everything, companies that produce stuff from base materials can't get as many base materials, I could go on. Producing the same amount of energy with troll windmills just demands so much more ressources. By the way in the last 300 years the temperature went up by 1°C and we increased CO2 by 60%. Let's humor Greta and say 100% of the temp increase is due to CO2. To get another degree (1°K or C) we need another 60% CO2 increase, at the current rate it would take 100 years. Even if you completely believe them and go worst case scenario (100% correlation) it seems a bit... hysterical to go full wood elves. There is just no way the (real) inflation will stop. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH STUFF FOR EVERYONE. The US are not just going to reverse on the gigantic government spending, welfare, stimies & unemployment benefits, mediocre demographics, CO2 transition, convince China to hold their usd bags, regain foreign investors confidence, and I don't even know what I missed. If the FED raises rates to 40% or something the common folk will all in, smart money use the stock market as a store of value. And common folks with some savings (say 100k) getting 40% a year PLUS benefits won't bother going to work so production declines a bit more. And common folk just made near millionaires will want to spend more. Doomed if they do not raise rates. Doomed if they do. Pretty ridiculous to believe in magic wands. I see no future where the stock market stops going up. Just a guess: Keep rates at 0-1% ==> Stonks go up as they're doing now. Raise rates to ~5% ==> Stonks go up or stagnate. The USD keeps its value for a while as fools get baited "safe haven". Raise rates to 10% ==> Stonks might go down as they're quite expensive. The USD stays strong for a while. Raise rates to 40% ==> Stonks go up like Zimbabwe and others. USD obviously is going to zero if they raise this much. But they can't keep the USD strong long while throwing money at everyone. Some people will save the usd they're getting for free to get the 5%, some people will spend it, some people will still not go to work. Production still goes down with consumption goes up. And the FED have shown until now they do not want the stock market to go down, at least during a cycle that lasts 4 or 8 years, I have noticed this by looking at price action and indicators and the FED rates, and this cycle happens to start and end in November of certain years, it's in the chart. It looks like the BOJ popped the bubble. The US are not Japan of the 80s-90s. tradingeconomics.com "Chidhakwa and Chigumira also mentioned that the fiscal position of Zimbabwe began to decline beginning the early 1990s due to budget deficits caused by numerous factors such as increases in civil service wages and salaries, high expenditures in social services, relief programs during periods of droughts, and parastatal (Renev: partially state-owned) losses. Industries and sectors, as well as subsidized credits, became inefficient due to their dependence on the ownership and control of the state." For Germany the causes were a government that was trolling France. And Venezuela recently: Maduro printed money in 2013 following the example set by Chavez, which helped in the short term but short term only (covid stimies anyone?), and then he kept spending, while offering rates of 20 to 60% but the population still avoided the currency (even the dumbasses, weird, they play dumb but then they run away from these obvious scams I guess it depends how fast it goes - boiling frog theory). The public went to the stock market and us dollar. As usual the government whined that there was a "conspiracy" against them and as usual - because you know, had nothing to do with them printing magic beans - the solution was a magical one: imposing price controls 🤣 Now the country is a desert but the stock market is still high, just not very open. It recently fell from 2.5 million points to 5000 in a straight line I don't know what this is about. Anyway same childish story as usual and Venezuela is on a trend to return to prehistory. "This was not real socialism let's try again" Ye keep trying until you're smashing rocks together genius. A significant part of the country has fled, I wonder if those are the champagne socialists? Smh. As the country goes through the paleolithic the weak will die so the strong will be able to rebuild. Humanitarian aid slows down but does not stop this process. tradingeconomics.com The US story has almost nothing in common with Japan, a little in common with Germany but not much, some in common with Zimbabwe but not all - there is no state control, and everything in common with Venezuela. As I said playing with rates won't matter (if they pay high rates they'll have to print even more to pay people it's just another way to throw money around), and if the US starts whining about a conspiracy and you know all that stuff that goes with it like price controls then it's the end of them. Did I miss something? I wonder what Peter Schiff has to say about this, I'll update this idea if I hear something interesting from his podcast. The US are so going to double down and continue on the Venezuela path.
FRED:CPIAUCSLLong
by MrRenev
6
"What If?" Wednesday - CPI and War"What If?" Wednesday: - It's still Tuesday, but I wanted to post this early. CPI: - Speculated CPI to beat expectations. - Bullish breakout of resistance, 2X ATR volatility. Yom Kippur War II: - "The Yom Kippur War, Ramadan War, or October War also known as the 1973 Arab–Israeli War, was fought from October 6 to 25, 1973, by a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria against Israel. The war took place mostly in Sinai and the Golan—occupied by Israel during the 1967 Six-Day War—with some fighting in African Egypt and northern Israel. Egypt's initial war objective was to use its military to seize a foothold on the east bank of the Suez Canal and use this to negotiate the return of the rest of Sinai." - According to Chernyaev, on November 4, 1973, Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev said: We have offered them (the Arabs) a sensible way for so many years. But no, they wanted to fight. Fine! We gave them technology, the latest, the kind even Vietnam didn't have. They had double superiority in tanks and aircraft, triple in artillery, and in air defense and anti-tank weapons they had absolute supremacy. And what? Once again they were beaten. Once again they scrammed. Once again they screamed for us to come save them. Sadat woke me up in the middle of the night twice over the phone, "Save me!" He demanded to send Soviet troops, and immediately! No! We are not going to fight for them. - Iraq raises oil export prices to US and lowers them for Asia. - In response to U.S. support of Israel, the Arab members of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, decided to reduce oil production by 5% per month on October 17. On October 19, President Nixon authorized a major allocation of arms supplies and $2.2 billion in appropriations for Israel. In response, Saudi Arabia declared an embargo against the United States, later joined by other oil exporters and extended against the Netherlands and other states, causing the 1973 energy crisis . - Ship gets stuck in Suez Canal. - Colonial pipeline cyberattack. - US missile submarine in Strait of Hormuz, intercepts weapon shipment. - Israel-Palestine conflicts escalates, with Hamas firing over a hundred rockets into Tel Aviv (a tech hub)'s residential area. - Trans-Israel pipeline in Ashkelon burned. - US citizens lining up for oil, and hoarding oil in expectations of shortages. - “We’re going to make it clear to anyone collecting unemployment who is offered a suitable job they must take the job or lose their unemployment benefits.” - Joe Biden - 'But Joe, how can I get to work with no gas?' #DealWithIt I heard the military is always hiring! COVID: - Meanwhile COVID mutation rampages in India, where a large share of IT services in the US are outsourced to! This includes cybersecurity related positions. Speculation: - Energy crisis will be the first domino piece to fall. Inflationary Shock forecast: GLHF - DPT
FRED:CPIAUCSLLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
Jerome Powell & The Ridiculous 1% Inflation RateJerome Powell stated that the Inflation Rate was moving at about 1%. It's actually been moving at about 3.65% over the past year but has started rising rapidly at about 7.67% since the Biden Administration seized control of the White House. The Trump Administration had an average Inflation Rate of about 2.14%. Currently the Inflation Rate is about 350% greater than it was before. The Crisis Event Indicator will hit Critical around June 1. The CE Indicator has predicted every Crisis Event following 9/11. Someone should go ahead and get Powell prepared for the next major crisis event which will be hitting very soon since he is living in the magical world of 1950's Inflation Rates and we now live in the age of Inflation Control Crisis Events.
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by cldx
1
The Inflation Monster & The Crisis Event IndicatorHow does this affect you? It's a MUCH bigger problem than you realize. The International/1% Wealth Class receives their Money long before it "trickles down" to you, the worker/consumer. This means they get the benefits of the full value of the Dollar long before inflation eats it away, however, you receive the same dollars much later after inflation has already taken a large portion of it's value. As prices continue to rise, your Gross Income (before taxes) cannot keep up with this constantly inflated value which rolls along every single day, which means you are always behind the curve and with each passing pay period you slowly earn less and less, even if you receive a raise it only takes you back to where you were before but most of the time it is to little to late. Thus, you will always have fewer Dollars since your Gross Income has already lost value even before you receive the Money. This is the hidden tax you've already paid and it is the slow and calculated destruction of the Middle Class. This is why your children are in debt, can't get a job and live in your basement and their children will be homeless. Many years the Inflation Rate is well above the 10yr avg. and is currently rising at the incredible rate of about 16% a year. Don't be fooled by anything MSM says, "Inflation is hitting 3%" nonsense, 16% is a conservative figure and is currently rising. This means that when you get paid about 16% of your paycheck has already vanished, yet you will still pay taxes on the full amount without any benefit, it is money you will never see. Any thought on what impact this might have on a local economy? Now the current Administration wants to raise Taxes even higher which will drive millions of people into poverty and many into bankruptcy. Now add to this another manufactured "Energy Crisis", (similar to 1978, gas lines and skyrocketing gas prices) job loses and the current flood of immigrants crossing the boarder and you have a recipe for complete and total disaster. Following 9/11, we now live in a state of constant "Crisis" events on a regular schedule in order to curb runaway inflation. Politicians either play the game or they are removed one way or another. MSM continues with endless propaganda to push the "Crisis" narrative. Social Media is now censoring and banning anyone that questions the Crisis Narrative and Free Speech is now under heavy attack. The Second Amendment is under full attack and is a serious threat to those that want to destroy the Untied States at any and all costs to human life is completely irrelevant. This problem can only be reversed with a sound money policy and the end of Fiat currency. The options for people to consider at this point are actually none. Either this Monster is destroyed or it will destroy you, take your pick, but there is no middle ground or compromise. If you do nothing and wish it away as though it doesn't exist, it will eventually destroy you, you will not escape it. There is no solution to this problem in Government, currently they are completely controlled and will only do exactly what they are told, forget calling your Congressman. This beast is like trying to reason with a blazing inferno while holding a blow torch. The current Crisis Indicator is at an 88.23 and will reach Crisis Level Critical at 96; since 9/11 it has marked a Crisis Event every time. Currently it is rising much faster than it has in the past. Expect anything at any moment, but one thing is certain, this clock does run out.
FRED:CPIAUCSLLong
by cldx