Bullish Outbreak The SMI is headed towards the upside after breaking a bearish and correction phase. Currently, the index is en route to form a new lower high on the higher timeframes, situated between the orange barriers.
SWISS20 trade ideas
Potential upward retestThe index may retest established higher highs, after finding support near a key low. Price action is ranging between 11700-11900, upon breaking of the consolidation phase.
Bullish momentum developingThe Swiss index is currently developing buying pressure which may retest 12200-12400 regions. Momentum to the upside is because of a bounce and bearish rejection of a previous support barrier. As long as price action is above 11755, the index headed for the above resistance barriers.
High-Probability SWI20 Longs with 57.78% Achieving TPI am adopting a probabilistic approach to my trading strategy based on historical and statistical data.
This method allows me to identify patterns and trends that have proven effective in the past, enabling me to make informed decisions about entering long positions.
By applying mathematical rules derived from historical performance, I can assess the likelihood of price movements and manage risk effectively.
This systematic approach helps to minimize emotional decision-making and enhances the potential for successful trades.
Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias:
- Swiss Economic Resilience: Despite global economic challenges, Swiss equities are showing signs of recovery, with the Swiss SMI index rising 2% this year, indicating a potential bullish trend ahead.
- Central Bank Policies: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has indicated a favorable inflation outlook, which could lead to supportive monetary policies that benefit the stock market.
- Currency Dynamics: The recent correction in the Swiss franc may ease pressure on exporters, potentially leading to improved earnings for companies within the index.
- Investment Inflows: Swiss-domiciled funds have recorded their highest net inflows since 2022, reflecting growing investor confidence in the Swiss market.
These factors collectively support a bullish outlook for the Switzerland 20 Index, aligning with my trading strategy.
2W:
HOURLY ENTRY:
USDSGD / EURNOK / CADCHF / EURJPY / NZDCHF / NZDUSD / SWISS20USDSGD (USD/SGD)
Overview: The USD/SGD pair is showing some short-term volatility around the 1.3100 level, with recent movements indicating consolidation.
Trade Insight: Watch for potential breakouts in either direction, with key resistance at 1.3120 and support at 1.3080. US dollar strength amid global risk-off sentiment could push the pair higher.
EURNOK (EUR/NOK)
Overview: EURNOK has been fluctuating around the 11.78 level, with a recent retracement from earlier highs.
Trade Insight: Look for a potential pullback if the Norwegian krone strengthens, especially with oil prices stabilizing. Key support lies at 11.72.
CADCHF (CAD/CHF)
Overview: CADCHF is trending upward, testing resistance near 0.6250. The Canadian dollar remains buoyed by positive oil prices, while CHF is stable.
Trade Insight: A breakout above 0.6250 could signal further upside, while a pullback could find support near 0.6225.
EURJPY (EUR/JPY)
Overview: EURJPY is currently testing 162.50 resistance after a steady decline. The yen's recent weakness is providing some upside for the pair.
Trade Insight: Watch for potential pullbacks if resistance holds, with downside support near 161.75.
NZDCHF (NZD/CHF)
Overview: The NZDCHF pair is in a downtrend, hovering around 0.5230 after a significant decline.
Trade Insight: With ongoing risk-off sentiment, expect potential continued weakness. Key support is at 0.5200 if downside momentum persists.
NZDUSD (NZD/USD)
Overview: The NZD/USD pair continues to trend lower, with the kiwi struggling against the US dollar's strength, trading near 0.5900.
Trade Insight: If support at 0.5890 holds, expect a possible bounce. Otherwise, watch for further declines, targeting 0.5850.
SWISS20 (Swiss Stock Index)
Overview: SWISS20 is consolidating around 12,710, after a recent pullback from highs.
Trade Insight: A break above 12,720 could trigger a move higher, but downside risk remains if key support near 12,650 is breached.
Summary
Today's market flow is filled with mixed signals across FX pairs, with potential breakouts and retracements visible. Stay alert for any signs of continuation or reversals in the key levels discussed across the USDSGD, EURNOK, CADCHF, EURJPY, NZDCHF, NZDUSD, and SWISS20 pairs.
SMI may hit one ATH after another till the end of the year.It appears that the failure of Swiss government-backed Swiss bank UBS last year, which was subsequently absorbed by Credit Suisse, prompted the government to regulate more restrictively for banks that are considered key and too big to fail destabilizing the Swiss economy, in April. Hence, the Swiss National Bank and the governing federal council acted on capital requirements, liquidity, early intervention, and recovery and resolution planning. UBS as a combined bank is currently stronger than Credit Suisse before the crisis, but there are still weaknesses that need to be addressed according to the central bank's communiqués. It appears that the liquidity coverage ratio is proving to be a key measure of the bank's ability to meet its payout and cash demands after the panic and outflows of retail deposits were greater and faster than assumed. In other words, panic has been severe throughout the past year and it has been difficult to calm savers. The antitrust watchdog on the one hand is of the opinion that more scrutiny should be exercised on the group, while the Swiss financial regulator is of the opposite opinion.
On the other hand, international investors have mostly invested in Swiss cash equities trying to obtain discounted prices resulting from the Swiss banking panic and also hoping that a market like Switzerland, very focused on exports especially to Europe, would outperform its peers, largely as a result of central bank policy changes that may push the Swiss franc further away from the highs reached in 2023. Although there is a perceived global slowdown, and the third quarter of the year is not going to be easy for exporters as the franc does not facilitate business by being too high, the central bank's guideline is that this could change soon, trying to tune in to Fed and ECB policies. Morningstar Direct reported that Swiss-domiciled funds recorded their highest net inflows since 2022.
The Swiss SMI index caught up with the European STOXX 600 rising 2% so far this year after last year's 3.8% rise, well behind the 12.7% increase of the European one. To a large extent, one could consider that the "Franc" was partly to blame for this, as many Swiss firms as we say are exporters and report their profits and pay part of their costs in francs, which means that the cost of currency conversion means that these profits are reduced. The independent firm Kepler Cheuvreux, reported that around 25% of SMI performance is foreign exchange movements, and this has become more acute in 2023 with the franc so expensive against the euro and the dollar, being the highest level since 2015. To name a few, pharma Roche or watch firm Swatch, remarked that the currency was proving a drag on their earnings in the last quarter of 2023. It is foreseeable to believe that this will gradually ease over the course of the year.
It is clear that companies reporting in Swiss francs are facing a huge hurdle and this creates competitiveness issues for them against their Japanese rivals, as the yen was the worst performing currency in 2023 falling 15% against the franc. Although the pharma and food sectors are relatively countercyclical and are well represented in the Swiss index, both sectors will benefit from a weak franc to sell to Europe.
Many strategists may have thought that "the Swiss franc is short" by 2024, coupled with the slowdown in global growth may favor defensive sectors. It would not be surprising to see European equities outperform by this currency offset by the end of 2024, given that they are currently undervalued, versus Europeans who may be overweight.
So far this year the franc has corrected its price levels and this could be a bullish sign for the SNB. Note that the Swiss franc is largely driven by two factors: global tensions are forcing investors to seek a safe haven currency and the SNB and its policies are the second factor. According to the SNB, the current level of inflation seems to be to its liking, so this could facilitate currency issuance. This bank is so interventionist that exemplifying, in 2022-23 they engaged in currency buying to reduce pressure on imported goods pushing their currency higher. Now with inflation under control, they are again turning their eye to franc appreciation. It is quite possible that the SNB has sold francs to bring this weakening forward, and this is visible after they showed data this month with a big jump in their January foreign currency reserves.
If we look at the 1 hour chart of the SMI, since May 1st the index has been climbing until it hit a brake at the end of the month, again in June it started another upward push until it reached the highs on June 7th and we are currently in a moment of correction. This only seems to be a stop to gather strength. At this moment the price bell is formed by a double bell with the lower part in the area near the lows and the upper part of the bell with the highest current volume in the price zone of 12,000 points. It is foreseeable that the index will seek to break out of the bearish corrective channel to support a new rampant price rise, as it is now one of the key indexes in the Eurozone.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Riding the Trend on CH20CHFBought as I recognised the strong moving trend of CH20CHF trending on the 6EMA discounted price zone.
Despite multiple small "sellers" selling, price continued to trend upwards, and strongly.
Currently the buyers want the CH20CHF, so I bought some too, in hopes of selling to the next Big Boy Buyer.
Both TP at 1R. It isn't exactly 1R for me in terms of dollars(SGD), its more of like 1R = 28$ +- SGD, and it is fine.
1418SGT
21052024
Something to keep eye on.. v2.0updating the previous idea
Diagonal down perhaps A
Flat B
Wave C to be executed
SHORT IDEAAnticipating a possible reversal lower.
Annotations of potential key levels made in the chart.
Once the stop level of 11256.97 is taken out, the idea is invalidated.
As usual, manage risk.
something to keep eye onwaiting to broke the green line for a sell signal.
ED down, then some corrective measures that could have ended.
Swiss WeakeningPossibly going down. Monitor bigger timeframe.
All other pairing currency would go long and getting strong.
Swiss is moving UPMaybe to continue upmove, or just retracing up from a long term downmove, let us see
For now, focus on buying chf. Watch out for h4 retracement / downmoves.
Long Term chf seems downLooking for best opportunity to sell long term. anyway, do watch out for retracement
Where is SMI going?Two Wycoff Ranges in action. 21 and 34 EMA on a 3 month timescale. Where is SMI going?
SMI long term ideaThis is for my personal record, I am a very bad trader so please don't take this as financial advice, you would not make profit.
Jamie Gun2Head - Selling CH20Trade Idea: Selling CH20
Reasoning: At resistance - hold the line!!
Entry Level: 10911
Take Profit Level: 10706
Stop Loss: 10967
Risk/Reward: 3.66:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Jamie's Gun2Head - Buying CH20 Jamie's Gun2Head Idea.
Ascending triangle formation breakout. Buying a break of previous resistance, looking for a move towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
SMI update - 03/04/2022Look for wave (3) to target the 1.618 multiple of wave (1) at 14248. 12069 is near-term support. The focus will then begin to shift towards a peak in wave (3) and the next corrective decline in wave (4)
SSMI - Swiss stocks - bullish 5th waveQuite a lot of doom and gloom about and lots of people calling a top in equities but I'm not so sure. This red count suggests that we might be about to see an extended 5th wave in Swiss equities going forward. I have to include the much more bearish blue count though and that suggests that the top is already in. Which is it? Wish I knew. Personally, I prefer the red count.....
SMI beginning of another LONG shot? The ECB and the FEDs will start tapering off their assets, which made investors quiet nervous by dropping the markets to lows of last Friday. Long time investors are still heavily invested and will take longer to adjust.
Volatility for the long time investor must occur on a much longer timeframe.
I see perhaps a new entry point for the Markets that can reach even higher highs in the coming months.
Swiss20Strong Buy - About to go higher next run up.
The Swiss Market Index (SMI) is Switzerland's blue-chip stock market index, which makes it the most followed in their country. It is made up of 20 of the largest and most liquid Swiss Performance Index stocks.
So that's good ay
The economy of Switzerland is one of the world's most advanced free market economies. The service sector has come to play a significant economic role, particularly the Swiss banking industry and tourism.
Often ranked in the richest country in the world per capita.
So that's even better : )
