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EURUSD trade ideas

EUR/USD - Strong rejection of higher prices On EUR/USD , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 1.06140 . It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. Strong rejection of higher prices and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade. Happy trading, Dale
by Trader_Dale
EURUSD H1 09/12/2024 - SELL below 1.0550 OR BUY above 1.05850Multi-Timeframe Analysis D1 (Daily Timeframe) Trend: Price is consolidating below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 200 SMA, indicating medium-term bearish pressure but with bullish momentum building. Indicators: RSI (14): 45.3, neutral. Stochastic (14,3,3): Overbought (near 82), signaling caution for immediate longs. MACD (12,26,9): Bearish histogram narrowing, indicating reduced selling pressure. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0580–1.0600. Support: 1.0525, 1.0490 (recent swing lows). H4 (4-Hour Timeframe) Trend: Mild bullish recovery as price moves above the Ichimoku Cloud, but capped by the 200 SMA at 1.0580. Indicators: RSI (14): 53.6, neutral-bullish. Stochastic (14,3,3): Bearish crossover, signaling short-term weakness. MACD (12,26,9): Weak positive histogram; momentum is waning. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0580–1.0600 (top boundary). Support: 1.0550, 1.0525. H1 (Hourly Timeframe) Trend: Price has consolidated after a bullish breakout but faces resistance at 1.0580. Indicators: RSI (14): 51.3, neutral. Stochastic (14,3,3): Overbought, signaling potential for a pullback. MACD (12,26,9): Negative histogram after bearish crossover, suggesting weakening momentum. ATR (14): 13 pips, indicating moderate volatility. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0580–1.0600. Support: 1.0550, 1.0525. M30 (30-Minute Timeframe) Trend: Similar to H1, consolidation within a narrow range below 1.0580. Indicators: RSI and Stochastic are in overbought territory; MACD is flat to bearish. Volatility: ATR confirms that volatility has subsided after recent upward movement. Trade Scenarios: Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (BUY Setup) Rationale: If the price breaks above 1.0580, it could target the next resistance level at 1.0600 and higher, supported by bullish momentum. Setup Details: Entry Price: Above 1.0585 (breakout confirmation). Stop-Loss: 1.0560 (below recent support). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0600. TP2: 1.0620 (Daily resistance level). Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Scenario B: Bearish Reversal (SELL Setup) Rationale: If the price breaks below 1.0550, it could target the support levels at 1.0525 and lower. Setup Details: Entry Price: Below 1.0550 (breakdown confirmation). Stop-Loss: 1.0575 (above recent highs). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0530. TP2: 1.0520. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
by napoleon182
EUR/USD: Are We Crashing Through Parity?Well, well, well, EUR/USD, you sly dog. Just when we thought the pair might catch a break, it doubles down on its favorite hobby—going DOWN. 📉 Since late September, this thing has been in a nosedive so steep it makes roller coasters look tame. 🎢 And now? It’s giving us not one but TWO glorious bearish flags. That’s the market’s way of saying, “Hold my beer, I’ve got more downside to cover.” 🍺 So, buckle up as we break down what’s happening with EUR/USD, why it’s acting like a currency in free fall, and just how low it might go. Spoiler alert: Parity might not be far enough. 😏 The Downtrend Diaries: EUR/USD’s Love Affair with Lows Okay, let’s rewind to late September. What happened? Oh, just EUR/USD deciding it was time to swap its bull costume for a full-blown bear suit. 🐻 We’re talking lower highs, lower lows, and every technical analyst’s favorite phrase: "the trend is your friend" (until it’s not, of course). This week? The pair is snuggled nicely inside its second bearish flag, like a bear hibernating before its next big move. For those of you wondering, a bearish flag is when the market pauses, catches its breath, and says, “Alright, time to drop some more.” And let me tell you, these flags aren’t subtle. They’re practically screaming, “Hey, the trend’s still bearish—don’t get any ideas!” Why So Bearish? Let’s Blame the Usual Suspects The Almighty Dollar Flexing Again 💪 The USD is out here reminding everyone why it’s called the safe-haven king. Interest rates? Still high. Risk-off sentiment? Very much alive. Meanwhile, the euro’s like that one kid who forgot to study for the test—it’s just not prepared to fight back. 🤷‍♂️ Eurozone: Where’s the Mojo? Between slowing growth, sticky inflation, and the French government imploding (because why not?), the euro is struggling to convince anyone it’s worth a rally. Even the promise of €500 billion in defense spending couldn’t lift its spirits for long. If fiscal spending can’t save the day, what can? Bearish Flags Don’t Lie 🚩 These flags are the cherry on top of the downtrend sundae. First, we had one around 1.0650, which broke lower like clockwork. Now we’re staring down another flag that’s coiled tighter than my jeans after Thanksgiving dinner. Once this breaks, well... let’s just say the floor is looking mighty inviting. How Low Can It Go? Let’s Talk Targets 🔭 Now, if this flag plays out like the textbook says, EUR/USD could easily revisit 1.0450. And if that level doesn’t hold? Get ready to dust off those parity memes. Yes, I’m talking 1.0000, the big, scary, psychological level where everyone suddenly remembers how to panic. 😱 But hey, let’s not stop there. The lower boundary of the larger downtrend is lurking below 0.9900, and if the bears get really hungry, that’s where they’ll feast. 🍴 The Sarcastic Silver Lining: What Would It Take to Flip Bullish? Oh, you want bullish scenarios? That’s cute. 😏 Here’s what would need to happen: The euro suddenly gets a personality transplant and decides it’s worth something. The USD forgets it’s the global reserve currency and takes a nap. A miracle. Like, divine intervention-level miracle. But seriously, unless EUR/USD breaks above 1.0600 with conviction (and by conviction, I mean a rally that doesn’t immediately fall apart), the bears are still in charge. Final Thoughts: Trade Smart or Get Wrecked 💀 Look, the writing’s on the wall. EUR/USD is in a downtrend, the flags are flapping, and the bears are sharpening their claws. This isn’t the time to play hero and try to catch a bottom. Instead, let the trend do its thing, wait for the flag to break, and ride the wave lower. 🌊 And hey, if it does hit parity, at least we’ll have something to talk about at the next market meltdown party. 🎉 Until then, keep those stop-losses tight, and don’t forget: the trend might be your friend, but it’s also got a dark sense of humor. Catch you next time, traders. George out. 🎤
Short
by EdgeDotForex
#EURUSD 4HEURUSD 4-Hour Analysis The EURUSD pair is forming a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is typically a bearish reversal signal. However, in this case, the price action suggests a potential invalidation of the pattern, favoring a bullish breakout scenario. If the neckline resistance is broken, it could provide a buy opportunity. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Head and Shoulders (Potential Breakout) Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position upon a confirmed breakout above the neckline resistance with strong bullish momentum. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation such as a breakout candlestick with increased volume or indicators like MACD signaling upward momentum. Proper risk management is crucial, with stop-loss orders placed below the neckline and profit targets set at the next resistance levels.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
US Tariffs: Deflationary Risk for Europe?EURUSD faces a crucial week, marked by key economic events and trade tensions. As US protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump could intensify deflationary pressures in Europe. Impact of U.S. tariffs While tariffs are often associated with inflation, in Europe they could have the opposite effect due to limited exposure to U.S. imports and their indirect impact on growth and employment. U.S. imports account for only 10% of the total in the Eurozone, with consumer goods barely reaching 6%, limiting the direct impact on prices. However, a 10% across-the-board tariff could reduce economic growth in the Eurozone by 0.3%, affecting employment and wages in key sectors such as manufacturing. On the export side, lower demand for European goods from the U.S. and China could deepen economic problems, although the eurozone previously benefited from the reorientation of global trade. In addition, previous trade disputes showed that a surge in Chinese imports into Europe contributed to disinflationary pressures. ECB meeting this Thursday The European Central Bank (ECB) will address a complicated environment of high uncertainty this Thursday, with trade tensions and signs of economic weakness. While no rate changes are expected, statements on the impact of trade tensions and the growth outlook will be crucial in determining the direction of the euro, the tone of the statements will be key to market expectations. A more cautious stance could weaken the euro, while any hint of optimism could give the currency a slight respite. Monetary policy could remain accommodative if economic projections continue to deteriorate. German trade balance on Friday Friday's release of Germany's trade balance will offer a signal on the health of Europe's economic engine. A larger surplus could support the euro, but an unexpected deficit, combined with tariff concerns, would reinforce negative sentiment about the eurozone economy. Between trade tensions and macroeconomic data, EUR/USD could experience high volatility this week, reflecting growing concerns about the European economic outlook. Progress on the Mercosur-EU agreement This weekend, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, concluded a free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The first attempt was formally launched in 1999, in negotiations that began as part of a broader cooperation framework established in 1995 (Framework Agreement on Interregional Cooperation). The agreement did not close despite looking promising on its last occasion as it faced multiple interruptions over the years due to disagreements in key areas such as agricultural products, industrial market access, environmental rules and labor rights. After intermittent negotiations, a preliminary agreement was announced in 2019, although its implementation is still pending due to debates over environmental issues. This time the agreement has generated very explosive messages from the Spanish agricultural camp and full opposition from Emmanuel Macron, the current main drivers being Germany and Spain. If finalized, it could boost trade and offer economic respite to both regions. A favorable agreement would strengthen European exports to Latin America, offsetting some of the negative effects of trade tensions with the US. Technical Aspect Looking at the 1H. chart, since December 9-10 the market has made a strong upward price recovery rally, with very high trading volume on the current trading day to the upside. The directionality of the euro seems to be trying to recover 1.05996 with the current price at 1.05641. The moving average is determining a possible opening in an upward direction, despite the checkpoint being around 1.05241. RSI is currently in its middle zone at 52.77%. In this environment full of uncertainties, EURUSD could experience high volatility, reflecting the interplay between trade challenges, ECB decisions and the potential breakthrough in the Mercosur-EU treaty. Ion Jauregui - Activtrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
by ActivTrades
EURUSDKey Observations: Support and Resistance Zones: There is a clearly established support zone around 1.0500, which coincides with prior lows and strong buying activity. Resistance levels are seen around 1.0600 (immediate resistance) and higher at 1.0700 if bullish momentum builds. Trend Analysis: The daily chart indicates a downtrend, but recent consolidation around the 1.0500 zone suggests potential for a reversal or a corrective move upward. On lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h), there is consolidation within the range of 1.0500-1.0550. Indicators: RSI: RSI levels below 40 indicate bearish pressure, but potential divergence could suggest an upcoming bullish move. MACD: The MACD shows minimal momentum, indicating a consolidation phase. Moving Averages: The price is below the 200 EMA on higher timeframes, reinforcing the bearish structure. On shorter timeframes, the 50 EMA and 200 EMA are nearing a crossover, which could hint at bullish momentum in the short term. Strategy and Recommendations: Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Entry: Consider buying if the price breaks above 1.0550 with strong volume. Targets: Target 1: 1.0600 (immediate resistance). Target 2: 1.0700 (next resistance zone if momentum sustains). Stop Loss: Below 1.0480 to account for potential fakeouts. Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation Entry: Sell if the price decisively breaks below 1.0500 with increased volume. Targets: Target 1: 1.0450 (next support level). Target 2: 1.0400 (key psychological level). Stop Loss: Above 1.0550 to protect against reversals. Recommended Approach: Short-Term Traders: Focus on breakouts above 1.0550 or below 1.0500 for clear momentum trades. Swing Traders: Await confirmation on daily candles around the 1.0500 support zone to determine if a reversal or continuation occurs. Risk Management: Always ensure a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 and limit exposure to avoid over-leverage in volatile conditions.
by DerrickJerry
#EURUSD - 09122024I was more bearish EURUSD last week towards the end of the week. On Friday it made a new high before coming down. Price action points to the downside on daily, though on weekly it is a doji, which IMO could indicate just a consolidation after the previous up move. I will be looking for downside before any bullish confirmation (that is, could see buyers come in later in the week). For today, a re-test and rejection off the PZ could see a move lower to target 1.0515 and 1.0490.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points: - The Federal Reserve enters its blackout period. - Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November from 6.5% in the previous month, raising expectations for a 50bp rate cut by the Bank of Canada. - U.S. nonfarm payrolls for November came in at 227,000, surpassing the market forecast of 200,000. The unemployment rate matched expectations at 4.2% but increased from the prior month. - Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, stated that the Fed is ready to raise rates again if inflation rises. - The Swiss National Bank sees mixed expectations of a 25bp or 50bp rate cut, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold. Major Economic Indicators: - December 10: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, Germany’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI) - December 11: U.S. November CPI, Bank of Canada rate decision - December 12: European Central Bank rate decision, U.S. November Producer Price Index (PPI) - December 13: UK October GDP EUR/USD Chart Analysis: EUR/USD climbed to the 1.06000 level but faced resistance and has slightly pulled back. Failure to break through the resistance level suggests a high likelihood of retreating to the 1.04500 level. For this week, the short-term outlook is bearish, but we will adjust our strategy based on the interest rate decisions from major economies.
Short
by shawntime_academy
Idea on a chartEuro was off fractionally this week with EUR/USD defending a rebound off yearly trend support. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the focus into December is on this recovery with the bulls eyeing a critical pivot zone just higher. Battle lines drawn on the Euro weekly technical chart. In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that, “A three-week plunge takes EUR/USD into downtrend support and a major pivot zone- risk for downside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of Euro short-exposure / lower protective stops
by EZIO-FX