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EUR/USD: Market Anticipation Ahead of Key Economic ReportsAs the London trading session unfolds on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair is hovering around the 1.0580 mark. Investors are gearing up for significant economic events this week, including the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, set to be released on Wednesday. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, making this week crucial for market participants seeking insights into future monetary policy shifts. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD has shown a lack of substantial movement over the past week, remaining firmly below the 1.0600 resistance level. Traders are closely watching how the currency pair interacts with this barrier, as it could dictate the next direction for the market. With speculation surrounding a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month, Wednesday's inflation figures may be the crucial factor influencing the Fed's decision. Analysts predict that the annual consumer price inflation will slightly increase to 2.7% year-over-year in November, up from 2.6% in October. Moreover, the core inflation rate, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3% year-over-year. Given the current landscape, our strategy is to remain on the sidelines as we await the CPI data on Wednesday and the Unemployment Claims report on Thursday. While our overall bias leans bearish, we believe it is prudent to refrain from taking any positions until the price potentially approaches a significant demand zone. This approach allows for a more informed entry that aligns with market developments. In summary, the EUR/USD is at a critical juncture as investors anticipate key economic reports that could have lasting effects on the currency pair's trajectory. With the market sentiment leaning toward caution, all eyes will be on the data releases this week. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Is EurUsd's correction over?In my previous posts about EUR/USD, I discussed the potential for an upside correction following the break below the 1.05 support level, the drop to 1.0330, and the subsequent reversal. I suggested that this upward movement could potentially push the price toward the 1.0670 resistance zone. Indeed, the pair did rise, reaching an intraday high of 1.0628 during Friday's NFP event. However, the day ended with a downside move, leaving a red candle with a long wick on the daily chart. The medium-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. This, combined with the overlapping structure from the recent low, clearly indicates that we are not witnessing the start of a bullish trend but rather a corrective phase. The key question now is whether this correction has concluded. To confirm, we would need to see a break back below the 1.05 level. With this in mind, if the pair revisits Friday's high, I plan to sell, placing a stop loss above 1.07 and targeting the 1.0450 support level.
by Mihai_Iacob
7
EURUSD: UT Retracement AnalysisPROBABLE UPTREND RETRACEMENT ON THE HORIZON NOTE: Below is the "Related Publication" of the analysis on the EURUSD (12) Technical Analysis The EURUSD pair exhibits distinct price action characteristics across multiple timeframes. A focused analysis of recent trends and technical indicators reveals key levels and potential movements: Trend Assessment On the 5-day (5D) and 8-hour (8H) timeframes, price action reflects a downtrend. The Mid-Pivot (MP) at 1.04059 has been reached, signaling potential consolidation. Key Levels Pivot High @ 1.12757 Resistance @ 1.1159, major Resistance @ 1.1069, minor Resistance @ 1.0975, minor Resistance @ 1.0806, minor Resistance @ 1.0710, minor Support I @ 0.9750, major Support II @ 0.9595, major Pivot Low @ 0.9536 Supply and Demand Zones Supply Zone: 1.10832 to 1.12142 Demand Zone: 0.9730 to 0.9976 Seasonality Impact Historically, the last quarter signals increased economic activity. This seasonal influence suggests a likely reversal to an uptrend from Mid-Pivot. A move towards the Supply Zone at 1.10832-1.12142 is plausible. Technical Indicators Summary Oscillators: Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other momentum indicators show neutral biases with specific buy signals (CCI at −126.46, Momentum at −0.05033). Moving Averages: Exponential and Simple Moving Averages (EMAs and SMAs) across all periods indicate bearish signals. Trading Strategy Suggestions High-Risk Traders: Can cautiously trade the expected uptrend from MP to the Supply Zone. Conservative Traders: Should implement creative risk management techniques to handle potential retracements until the downtrend resumes. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS The fundamental backdrop provides critical insights into EURUSD's prospective movements Economic Seasonality: The last quarter typically showcases enhanced liquidity and economic vibrancy, aligning with historical data supporting a shift to bullish activity. Macroeconomic Factors: The EUR's recovery prospects may be influenced by the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policies, upcoming inflation data, and trade flows between the EU and the US. On the USD side, Federal Reserve policies and economic indicators (e.g., Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI) will impact the pair's trajectory. Geopolitical Considerations: Trade tensions, energy crises in Europe, and interest rate differentials remain pivotal. A dovish stance by the Fed or ECB's economic stimulus can amplify EUR strength. ACTIONABLE TAKEAWAYS Major Uptrend Retracement: The confluence of technical and fundamental factors supports the probability of a major uptrend retracement. Swing traders should closely monitor resistance levels and oscillators for confirmation of bullish momentum. Risk Management: Utilize adaptive stop-loss strategies. Example: Tie stop-loss levels to the ATR-based calculations to mitigate volatility.
by ProfessorCEWard
Descending triangle in EURUSDEUR/USD Technical Analysis: A Descending Triangle pattern has formed on the EUR/USD chart, indicating a potential bearish breakout. Here are the key points: 1. Resistance: 1.05660 2. Support: 1.05052 3. Target: 1.04383 Breakout Alert: The EUR/USD has broken below the support level, confirming the bearish breakout. This could lead to a continuation of the downtrend. Selling Opportunity: The breakout below the support level has triggered a selling opportunity, with a target at 1.04383. Stay tuned for further updates and analysis on the EUR/USD market!" Best Wishes Tom 😎
Short
by Tom_Trades_670
1
The ECB's impact on EURUSDThe European Central Bank (ECB) arrives at its last meeting of the year in an environment of high global economic uncertainty, driven by geopolitical tensions, slowdown in China and political changes in the United States. In this scenario, the ECB Governing Council faces a critical decision: to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December, continuing its gradual tightening cycle initiated in 2024. However, the real dispute lies in the future direction of monetary policy: moving towards an expansionary zone to stimulate the economy or keeping rates at neutral levels to preserve tools against future crises. A monetary dilemma and its effects on the market Analysts' consensus is that the ECB will cut the deposit rate to 3%. This cut, the fourth in a row this year, accumulates to a decrease of 100 bp in 2024. In the short term, these decisions are designed to ease financial conditions in the Eurozone, but they generate divided positions within the ECB between “doves” (pro-expansion) and “hawks” (pro-neutrality). The former seek to stimulate the weakened economy, pushing EUR/USD lower due to a less attractive euro against other currencies with higher yields. On the other hand, the “hawks” argue that excessive cuts now may waste room for maneuver in the future. This creates uncertainty in the markets, especially in the FX market, where EUR/USD has shown volatile movements with each ECB announcement. Implications for EUR/USD A 25bp cut could put downward pressure on the euro, as looser policy tends to reduce the currency's attractiveness to investors. However, the impact will depend on expectations about future ECB decisions and the signals given in its forward guidance. If the ECB adopts more accommodative language and is open to further cuts, EUR/USD could break key support levels, such as 1.05, approaching multi-month lows. Conversely, if the ECB indicates that future cuts will be limited, the euro could find support and stabilize against the dollar. This outcome will also depend on the evolution of other global factors, such as US fiscal policy under the Trump administration, which could influence dollar strength. Impact on financial markets In the fixed-income market, gradual cuts are steepening yield curves, favoring intermediate maturity bonds. Meanwhile, in equity markets, an expansionary ECB policy tends to support growth, boosting cyclical and export sectors. However, lingering geopolitical tensions and a moderation in economic forecasts (with projected GDP growth for 2024 of only 0.8%) limit optimism. Looking ahead to 2025 Some relevant European banks expect the ECB to cut rates to 1.5% by the end of 2025, suggesting gradual adjustments of 25 bps at each meeting in the first half of the year, with possible quarterly reductions in the second half of the year. This outlook leaves a window of uncertainty on EURUSD and European markets, which will continue to react to economic data and global dynamics. Technical Aspect Currently the EURUSD awaiting news remains above the support zone. Currently if the rate hike forecasts at today's meeting in the afternoon, will have a palliative effect on the devaluation of the currency. Currently trading at 1.05085 in the early morning hours with a slightly bearish pressure zone since the beginning of the session, a change in directionality to the upside could be seen today. Currently the Check Point (POC) is around 1.05726, a price zone where it was trading on the 5th. It would not be unusual for this rate hike to move the euro in the direction of 1.05400 and break the downward pressure initiated yesterday with the US CPI data which was slightly better than expected although year-on-year inflation matched expectations at 2.7%, although market basket inflation was at 3.3%. This caused EURUSD positions to go long by 70-30% yesterday. Such pressure is similarly maintained. The ECB faces a difficult balancing act between stimulating the weakened economy and preserving its credibility in the face of future economic shocks. Decisions taken in December and throughout 2025 will define not only the course of the euro, but also the stability of the European economic bloc. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
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by saurabh4398
EURUSD Technical Analysis: Bullish Reversal SetupEURUSD Technical Analysis: Bullish Reversal Setup Market Outlook: Potential Bullish Trend Emerging The EURUSD pair is showing promising signs of a significant trend reversal, with multiple technical indicators pointing to a potential bullish momentum in the near term. Traders should pay close attention to key support and resistance levels that could define the market's next move. Key Technical Levels - Support Level: 1.0520 (Potential Bullish Reversal Zone) - Critical Support: 1.0330 (Trend Invalidation Point) - Potential Bullish Target: 1.3200 Pattern Analysis The market has completed a clear ABC corrective pattern, setting the stage for a potential five-wave impulse move to the upside. This technical formation suggests a strong possibility of a trend reversal and subsequent bullish continuation. Trading Considerations 1. Entry Zone: Traders should watch the 1.0520 area carefully. This level represents a critical support zone that could trigger a bullish reversal. 2. Risk Management: The 1.0330 level serves as the trend invalidation point. Any sustained break below this level would negate the bullish scenario and require a reassessment of the market structure. 3. Upside Potential: The long-term bullish target remains at 1.3200, offering a substantial potential profit range for traders who can successfully navigate the initial reversal. Trading Strategy - Wait for confirmation of the bullish reversal around the 1.0520 support level - Look for clear five-wave move to the upside - Implement strict stop-loss measures below the 1.0330 invalidation point - Consider partial profit-taking at significant resistance levels As with all trading strategies, this analysis is not a guarantee of market movement. Traders should: - Use proper risk management - Implement stop-loss orders - Consider multiple timeframe analyses - Be prepared for potential market volatility Conclusion The EURUSD pair presents an intriguing bullish setup with well-defined technical parameters. Traders should remain vigilant, watching for confirmation of the proposed bullish reversal and the subsequent five-wave move. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Long
by Akshulive
1211 Waiting for ECB to confirm a long term directionHello traders, Whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points depends on several factors, including current economic data, inflation outlook, market expectations, and policymakers' concerns about economic growth and financial stability. 1. Market Expectations and Current Economic Background - According to LSEG Refinitiv data, the market expects an 81% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the expectation for a 50 basis point cut is only 19%. This indicates that the market generally believes the ECB is more inclined towards a moderate rate cut rather than taking more aggressive measures. - The main challenges facing the European economy currently include slowing economic growth, easing inflation pressures, and fluctuations in energy prices. These factors may prompt the ECB to take action to support economic recovery, but a 50 basis point cut may be seen as too aggressive, especially when inflation has not fully returned to target. 2. Possibility of a 50 Basis Point Cut If the ECB chooses to cut rates by 50 basis points, it would be a bold move that exceeds market expectations, potentially indicating the following: - The ECB's concerns about economic growth are greater than the general market perception, suggesting a need for more substantial easing measures to stimulate the economy. - By implementing a larger rate cut, the ECB may be trying to send a strong signal to the market, demonstrating its commitment to supporting the economy. - However, such a move could also provoke negative market reactions, such as increased volatility in bond yields or further pressure on the euro exchange rate. 3. More Likely Scenario: A 25 Basis Point Cut - Historically, the ECB tends to adjust its policies gradually to avoid causing excessive disruption to the market. - A 25 basis point cut aligns with market expectations and can smoothly convey policy intentions while retaining flexibility for future adjustments. 4. **My View** - The likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is significantly higher, as it aligns with market expectations and avoids unnecessary volatility in financial markets. - If the ECB opts for a 50 basis point cut, it may indicate a more pessimistic assessment of recession risks, but this choice could also entail greater policy risks. Technically, EURUSD is testing the weekly support and moving beneath the EMAs. As long as it breaking through the support, a long-term bearish trend for EURUSD is pretty sure! GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
Short
by FUNTRADER-Vera
Head and Shoulders Pattern in EURUSDEUR/USD Analysis (Timeframe: To be determined): Head and Shoulders Pattern Detected, Buy Signals Generated A head and shoulders pattern has been identified on the EUR/USD chart. However, contrary to the typical bearish implication, buy signals have been generated, indicating a potential bullish reversal. Key Indicators: - Head and Shoulders Pattern: A clear head and shoulders formation has been detected. - Buy Signals: Generated, indicating a potential bullish reversal. - Trend Analysis: Potential bullish reversal. Key Levels: - Resistance: 1.08300 - Support: 1.05200 - Target: 1.09250 Recommendation: Consider long positions or bullish strategies to capitalize on the potential upside movement. Please note that forex markets are highly volatile, and prices can change rapidly. Please mind your own money management 🙏 Best Wishes Tom 😎
Long
by Tom_Trades_670
1
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0543 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.0564 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.0502 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EUR/USD: Profitable Trading TacticsFX:EURUSD Key Observations: Current Price: 1.06413 USD Significant Levels: Order Block (OB): 1.06413 USD Resistance: 1.05529628 USD Support: 1.06413 USD Technical Indicators: Volume Profile: High trading activity around 1.06413 USD Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently around 46.95, suggesting neutral conditions MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Shows a bearish momentum with the MACD line crossing below the signal line Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 0.618: 1.05413264 USD 0.705: 1.05473090 USD 0.786: 1.05529628 USD Buy Strategy: Entry Point: Consider entering a buy position if the price retraces to the support level around 1.06413 USD or the lower Fibonacci levels (0.618 or 0.786). Confirmation: Look for bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing) and a bounce from the support level. Ensure the RSI is not in the overbought zone and the MACD shows a bullish crossover. Target: Set the target around the resistance level at 1.05529628 USD or higher Fibonacci levels. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the support level or the recent swing low. Sell Strategy: Entry Point: Consider entering a sell position if the price reaches the resistance level around 1.05529628 USD and shows signs of reversal. Confirmation: Look for bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing) and a rejection from the resistance level. Ensure the RSI is in the overbought zone and the MACD shows a bearish crossover. Target: Set the target around the support level at 1.06413 USD or lower Fibonacci levels. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the resistance level or the recent swing high. By following these strategies and confirmations, you can make informed decisions based on the observed chart patterns and technical indicators. Happy trading!
by Alexgoldhunter