EUR/GBP 1-Hour Technical Analysis1. Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic (Phase B)
Phase A: This is the initial phase where preliminary support (PS), selling climax (SC), and automatic rally (AR) occur. In your chart, this is indicated by the initial sharp drop followed by the first corrective move upwards (AR).
Phase B: This is the phase of accumulation, where the smart money starts accumulating positions in anticipation of a breakout. In the chart, you’ve labeled "ST IN PHASE B," which means the price is undergoing tests within the trading range and still has potential for further consolidation. We can expect some further tests of support/resistance before a decisive breakout happens.
2. Elliott Wave Count (ABC Correction and Impulse Waves)
In the chart, the ABC correction seems to have completed after an impulse wave labeled as wave (1)-(5). We are in the corrective phase (wave A-B-C). It looks like a zig-zag pattern with the corrective wave B overlapping, hinting at the potential for a new impulsive structure to follow.
After the corrective wave finishes, we anticipate a fresh impulsive wave (likely Wave 3 based on Elliott Wave) to the upside, aligning with the bullish narrative.
3. Harmonic Patterns
A harmonic pattern, potentially a Bullish Gartley, is highlighted with the key Fibonacci retracement ratios (0.618, 0.786). The price is currently at a critical Fibonacci support level (likely the completion of point C).
The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement is a key harmonic confluence, indicating a reversal zone, and aligns with a bullish order block.
4. Volume Profile (Accumulation Evidence)
The volume indicator at the bottom highlights an uptick in volume around the accumulation phase, which confirms that significant accumulation is taking place. The phase after this may indicate that institutions are preparing for a mark-up phase, where price moves out of this range.
5. Order Block and Smart Money Concepts
You’ve marked a Bullish Order Block where the price has reacted multiple times, suggesting a zone of interest for institutional traders. This zone typically holds strong buying pressure and can be a key reversal point.
It’s also in alignment with Wyckoff’s accumulation phase, suggesting that smart money is preparing for an upward move.
6. Macro Factors and Event Timing
Notably, there are three vertical red lines indicating upcoming Inflation Rate YoY Sell events, likely key economic events that will influence EUR/GBP. You’ll want to monitor these macroeconomic drivers, as they could spark volatility.
Given that these are labeled “Sell” events, the market might expect a bearish response to these inflation data releases.
7. Projection for Next Week (October 1st - October 7th)
Near-Term Expectation: The pair appears to be in the final stages of Phase B accumulation and is testing critical support. You may see some choppy action early in the week as price tests these zones and final shakeouts occur.
Breakout Potential: After this accumulation phase and the completion of the current correction, we can anticipate a breakout above the resistance line, aligning with the Elliott Wave count.
Bullish Scenario: If the bullish order block and harmonic support hold, we could see the start of an impulsive rally (Wave 3) towards the resistance levels and above. The breakout should coincide with the weekly close marked around October 4th. Watch for confirmation on price action breaking higher highs.
Bearish Scenario: If price breaks below the current support, it could extend the corrective move lower. However, this would invalidate the current bullish wave count.
Trading Strategy (Based on the above analysis):
Buy Zone: Around the completion of wave C (0.8320 level), which is also a confluence of harmonic support and Wyckoff accumulation.
Stop Loss: Place it just below the current support at 0.8300 to account for false breakouts.
Take Profit Target: Aim for the high marked near wave 3 (~0.8410 and above) for a medium-term target.
Event Risk: Watch for the inflation data releases as volatility could trigger sharp moves, so adjust your position sizing accordingly.
By focusing on these levels and aligning the Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, harmonic, and macroeconomic frameworks, you should be able to navigate the next week with a clear trading plan
