VIX: Cyclical Pattern of market volatility.5 minor waves followed by a major correction. Seem to be consistent in the last 10 years.
VIX trade ideas
VIX historical data analysisHistorical data over the past 10 years shows that VIX bottoming phase usually lasts no more than 168-193 trading days. After that, a significant spike occurs, which sends the VIX to the 35-80+ zone. Even if today was not the starting point of this upside move, there is not much time left. We have already passed 172 trading days. Take this into account before establishing new positions. The date range where the VIX peak should occur is mid-March to mid-May.
Warp PhoenixIt's been over a year since I stopped all trading and updating charts. Just wanted to log in the annals of history that the VIX spike finally arrived and still within the red rectangle I had drawn long before I had quit. Phoenix is still kicking. Is there any value knowing this? Probably not. Nothing can be gained by bears through such months/years of grind and then a warp speed VIX spike arriving out of nowhere, instantly driving put prices through the roof. It probably signals something bad to come in the real world. But, capitalizing on such chaos? I don't think so. Might as well keep holding those GICs and wait it out until the next bull. As much as I love the truth speaking bears, we lost long ago.
Update: VIXIts been a while but those who follow me know I posted extensively about the VIX months back and as we can see, the VIX is very much in the news lately due to its current historical spike.
It was not one of the more popular topics at the time I was talking about it but as you can see on this chart outlined here, that this is an extremely powerful resource and should be one of my most popular posts in my opinion.
The VIX was and still is highly accurate in regard to being an indicator of when to be risk on vs risk off. The levels I drew have been respected for the last few years perfectly and historically after we've seen sudden spikes, they were short lived and the index came back down to levels that were very friendly to bulls. Historically, the last time volatility was at this level, Covid Pandemic had just happened. Shortly after markets rallied 100% before finally entering a bear market TWO YEARS later.
In the coming weeks keep an eye on the VIX to see if it returns back below 15 basis points in that sweet Buy and Hold area that I have labeled on the chart.
VIX Spike to 'Covid' Crash Levels... What Happens NextThe last time the VIX spiked this high was during the March 2020 Covid 'Crash' which was followed by an epic Bull run after that, and proved to be one of the best buying opportunities.
With Japan's unwinding of their 'Carry Trade' and overall US stock market correction, the FED is likely to do an emergency rate cut this month.
And the US elections are coming up, which likely means QE to prop up the economy, as the the next liquidity cycle begins...
So this could be a great signal to flip back to Bullish in the crypto markets.
Fear and Greed is also down to 25, which is another good indicator of sentiment reverting to the mean and back toward Greed sooner than later.
I'm buying, and happy my limit buy orders from yesterdy for SOL at $115, $120, and $125 all filled today and already are in profit.
$VIX Enable Holy Sh*t ModeHere on the TVC:VIX we are making a very simple and very basic technical forecast based solely on the CCI.
We previously called a breakout on the TVC:VIX weekly chart shortly before our market pullback with excellent results.
Now we are examining the monthly chart for any clues to the next big breakout.
On the monthly chart CCI is pointed up on the TVC:VIX and slowly creeping toward a Major Breakout level.
Given the length of time it could take for this breakout to develop, it could be many months before it actually happens. But when we start to approach this level, Beware of what has happened previously.
Anytime the monthly TVC:VIX breaks out above zero we have had moves of between 50 and 100+ which has led to serious economic punishment, more notably in 2008 and 2020.
Highest level of fear after 2008 and CovidThis is insane.
We're in the highest level of fear after 2008 crisis and Covid pandemic.
Let's see what will happen.
Volmageddon $VIX Golden Cross on the daily confirmed TVC:VIX Golden Cross that I've been watching and waiting so long for, has finally happened! Volatility short squeeze, fear and panic in the markets! How high can we go? I'll only be looking for pullbacks to add to my TVC:VIX long positions. AMEX:UVXY AMEX:UVIX commons and calls swings, AMEX:SVIX puts swing. Woohoo!
Fear of US recession, vix is a optimal point for sellingI entered in a short position in VIX CFD to swing trade, because it has reached a level that normally goes down. We saw higher acceleration in VIX when we had the covid virus. Now We are seeing a fear of nothing....
Increased VIX Stress Forecasts Mid-Term Stock SlumpThe recent COT data indicates a sharp increase in stress levels in the VIX. This suggests that market participants are preparing for a rise in volatility, which is usually associated with falling stock prices. Looking at the COT history of the VIX, we can infer the stock market movements during similar stress level increases (green horizontal line): We observed similar phenomena in February 2013, June 2014, October 2016, June 2018, August 2021, and September 2023. We see that all these periods were associated with events that caused increased volatility. Notable mentions include the onset of the Ukraine crisis in the summer of 2014, the US elections in 2016, significant sell-offs in the second half of 2018, and the precursors to the open Ukraine war in the second half of 2021. As the price movements show us, these events did not mean the end of the world. However, it is notable that we are currently in a similar situation, particularly regarding the upcoming US elections. Based on this analysis, we must assume that significant, albeit temporary, price declines are to be expected at least in the medium term.
VIX waiting for the spike to top out This is the spike in volatility I have been anticipating for a while (you can never pinpoint exact event). Can easily see a 50+ print on VIX this week.
YOU MUST WAIT for the spike top before attempting to sell vol/buy risk assets but it should present a good opportunity.
Time for a VIX blowout?I've been accummulating my VIX puts at it's lows which have tested multiple times during this and last year, finding reaction at all time after consolidation.
You can see two potential paths based on previous reactions here.
The black trendline has been respected three times with the red one being tested 2/3x times as much.
You can also see the bullish divergence on the the daily most recently highlighted with a blue line on the RSI.
Stock markets are way overbought and I'm going long on VIX.
Omg markets are crashing--- it is just a Bear trap ... This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess
Remember, the weekend of 23 august.... to pull the trigger
VIX Multi-Year BreakoutI just shared some ideas for VX and I prefer VX over VIX, however VIX analysis has it's merits. We're seeing a similar chart as you'd expect, major breakout for VIX after a big downtrend since early 2022/late 2021. I'll be watching to see if this can sustain over a longer term period of 2-3 weeks at least.
To the upside, watching for failures at previous highs from 2023 and 2022.
VIX | Economic, Geopolitical, and Market DevelopmentsTVC:VIX
Key Points:
FOMC Decision:
Rate Hold: The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, indicating caution due to persistent inflation (Home) (Home).
Market Volatility:
VIX Surge : The VIX rose to 23.38, reflecting increased market fear and uncertainty driven by economic and geopolitical factors (Home).
Japan's Economic Challenges:
Policy Adjustments : The BOJ raised rates and ended yield curve control but maintained a relatively accommodative stance due to muted inflation.
GDP and Inflation : Japan's GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2024, and core inflation stood at 2.5% year-over-year.
Europe's Economic Landscape:
ECB Rates : The ECB's interest rate is at 3.75%, with slow growth expected amid ongoing inflationary pressures.
Geopolitical Tensions:
Iran-Israel Conflict : Escalating tensions impact global oil prices and market sentiment (Council on Foreign Relations).
Russia-Ukraine War : The conflict continues to pose significant geopolitical risks, affecting global markets and humanitarian conditions (S&P Global).
US-China Relations : Ongoing strategic competition and trade tensions shape global dynamics (EL PAÍS English).
Cybersecurity Threats : Increasing frequency and severity of cyberattacks threaten national security and financial stability (S&P Global).
Global Elections:
2024 Elections : Major elections in the US, UK, and EU contribute to geopolitical complexity, potentially reshaping policies and market responses (EY US).
Summary:
The global economic and geopolitical environment remains volatile. The FOMC's decision to hold rates reflects caution amid persistent inflation. Market volatility, indicated by the VIX surge, is driven by economic concerns, geopolitical tensions, and mixed corporate earnings. Japan faces economic challenges despite policy adjustments, while Europe contends with slow growth and inflation. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, alongside significant upcoming elections, add layers of complexity for investors and policymakers.
You can chart the VIXA downward sloping channel typically breaks up. What made me go long the VIX? It stopped going down. Did I have to wait? Yes. Did I go up $20,000+ today. Yes. Call it looking for value in underinvested areas. I believe this proves you can use tech. Analysis anywhere.
Possible Weekly Trend Of VIX 🦋 Butterfly 🦋 the detail is shown in the above Idea.
I made this Idea based on Candlestick Analysis and Harmonic pattern using Fibonacci tools.
in beginning of year 2023
Butterfly of VIX Daily Trend Fall from 29 to 14 .
at last weeks of year 23
buyers crab rose to reach 23.
in year 2024
Butterfly of VIX Weekly Trend probably Will Fall from 19 to 7.
VIX $2.9 Trillion wiped on recession fears. Is the worst over?The much lower than expected Nonfarm Payrolls today (114k against a 176k forecast) amplified the global recession concerns and wiped out $2.9 trillion from the stock markets, making it the worst day since the 2020 COVID crash.
With Nasdaq down almost -12% from its recent peak, investors are more or less convinced of the necessity of a September Fed Rate cut in order to restore confidence in the market. But is the worst over yet?
Well, lets take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX), which last time we analyzed it (April 16, see chart below), helped us take the most optimal buy entry on the stock market as it got rejected right at the top of its 10-month Channel Down:
Today VIX was up almost +90% from its daily Low, displaying enormous market volatility. It is useful in times like these to look at the multi-year price action in order to keep an objective technical perspective.
As this 1W chart shows, a VIX price this high is a rare feat since the 2008 Housing Crisis. In fact the break-out above the Channel Down resembles the Highs of December 24 2018 and October 13 2014 (blue circles). Those that been the lowest levels of alerts on the VIX scale, with the medium ones being the orange circles and the worst ones being the red (only happened twice: October 20 2008 and the COVID crash of March 16 2020).
At the same time, the 1W RSI just broke above the 70.00 Overbought barrier, which has only happened another 6 times since the 2008 Housing Crisis. It is easy to understand as a result, that this VIX spike has more chances to be corrected in the coming weeks than ending up in a larger stock market correction.
On our current chart, the stock market is represented by the S&P500 (black trend-line). As you can see, a strong recovery (green Channel Up) followed after the blue VIX peaks. In the event however that this turns out to be an orange VIX peak next week, the S&P500 is expected to start recovering within 4-6 weeks.
Which case do you think it will be?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
VIX vs Autofib StrategyAutofib seems to do bad for the VIX index on red market days. As always, none of this is investment or financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and research.
VIX has topped for now. Markets to rip higher soonThe VIX has touched the upper resistance and will reverse soon. VIX going down means markets will go higher.
IMO, we won't have more major downside until October / November.
VIXWhat should happen to press buy bottom?!
Green area is the best area to buy VIX and sell between 25 to 35...
The Fear Index and Geopolitical TensionsIn an era marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, the fear index emerges as a crucial tool for traders seeking to navigate turbulent markets. This article delves into the historical significance of the fear index, exploring pivotal moments like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1973 Oil Crisis, and the 2008 Financial Crisis. By understanding how investor psychology and market sentiment intertwine with the fear index, traders can gain a competitive edge.
In today's world, marked by unprecedented geopolitical tensions, understanding the fear index has never been more crucial. As global conflicts escalate, the fear index provides essential insights into market sentiment and helps risk managers navigate through these turbulent times.
A Geopolitical Powder Keg
We are witnessing a convergence of significant geopolitical events:
Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: Ongoing hostilities have far-reaching implications for global stability.
Middle Eastern Volatility: Potential for a full-scale war involving major powers like Israel, the U.S., and Iran.
Sino-Taiwanese Tensions: Threats of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with severe repercussions for the semiconductor industry and global economy.
Pro-Palestinian Protests: These could escalate into widespread violence, further destabilizing the political and economic landscape.
The Role of the Fear Index
The fear index, often measured by market volatility, acts as a barometer of investor sentiment in the face of these geopolitical risks. By closely monitoring the fear index, risk managers can gain early warnings of market disruptions and develop strategies to mitigate potential crises.
Historical Context
Historical precedents show how the fear index responds to geopolitical tensions:
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): Stock markets plummeted due to heightened anxiety, underscoring the impact of geopolitical events on market sentiment.
1973 Oil Crisis: The Arab-Israeli War and subsequent oil embargo led to global economic downturns, reflecting the fear index's potential spike during such crises.
9/11 Attacks: The fear index surged as markets reacted to the unprecedented nature of the terrorist attacks.
2008 Financial Crisis: Global financial instability caused a dramatic increase in the fear index, providing early warnings of the impending market collapse.
COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic's economic halt saw the fear index spike, signaling early disruptions.
Methodologies for Calculation
Understanding how the fear index is calculated enhances its utility:
Volatility Indexes (e.g., VIX): Measure implied market volatility.
Sentiment Analysis: Assess sentiment through news and social media.
Investor Behavior Metrics: Analyze options trading and margin debt levels.
Combining these approaches offers a comprehensive view of market fear in response to geopolitical tensions.
The Psychological Impact
Investor behavior during geopolitical crises is influenced by:
Loss Aversion: Heightened sensitivity to potential losses.
Herd Mentality: Following the crowd amplifies reactions.
Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the probability of easily recalled events.
Strategic Applications
Risk managers must adopt a holistic approach, integrating the fear index with geopolitical and economic data to develop robust contingency plans. While the fear index can't predict crises' exact timing or magnitude, it provides valuable early warnings to prepare for potential disruptions.
Conclusion
The fear index is indispensable for navigating today's geopolitically charged environment. By monitoring market sentiment and identifying emerging trends, you can protect your investments from unforeseen events and build resilience. Embrace the insights offered by the fear index to stay ahead in these volatile times.
$VIX closing in on the Golden Cross on the daily TVC:VIX is coiled tight into the wedge, and holding support. The 21 MA is very close to crossing the 200 MA, and I'm watching for the 50 MA to follow. Golden Cross potential on the daily, and weekly chart! 🤞
