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Corn vs US Dollar

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CORN trade ideas

CORN Loking Bullish End of weeek anaysis1. Current Bullish Sentiment If you're expecting a bullish move in corn prices, it could be due to several factors: Supply/Demand Dynamics: Weather conditions, crop yields, or geopolitical events can affect supply, leading to higher prices if there's a shortfall. Seasonality: Corn often follows seasonal patterns, with prices typically peaking during periods of strong demand or when harvests are threatened. Technical Momentum: The price might be building upward momentum, with increasing volumes indicating strong buyer interest. 2. Stop-Loss at 671 A stop-loss at 671 suggests that you want to limit downside risk by exiting the trade if the price drops below this level. Here's what this indicates: Support Level: 671 might represent a recent support zone where prices previously held during a downward move. Risk Management: It’s close enough to protect you from major losses if the market turns against you, but still gives enough room for natural price fluctuations without triggering the stop too early. 3. Take-Profit at 1600 Setting a take-profit at 1600 suggests you're expecting a substantial upside, and here's what it implies: Major Resistance or Long-Term Target: This could be a long-term resistance level from historical price action or your analysis suggests a big move based on fundamentals or technicals. High Reward-to-Risk Ratio: With a stop at 671 and take-profit at 1600, you're looking for a high reward-to-risk ratio. The distance between the two levels shows a significant potential upside if the bullish trend plays out.
CAPITALCOM:CORN
by LORDOFTHETRADERS
CORN, bound for huge bounce.. Drought will make prices surge!CORN has overextended correction to 5.74 from a high of 6.8. The overreaction is a bit on the unreasonable side with worst DROUGHT in years endangering world's supply. Price is back at 1.0 FIB level. This is beyond bargain / discount. Best to seed at this range. Based on monthly data, the 'trend shift' based on metrics hasn't changed. Reversal is on queue at the current price range. If anything, the market is too generous to offer at very low prices before the potential future valuation. 4H histogram is currently shifting -- with buyers attempting to reverse the trend. Spotted at 5.7 TAYOR Safeguard capital always. ------------- some related news: Central US is now getting worst of the drought. Corn crops are stressed, rivers are running low The middle of the country is extraordinarily dry ByJIM SALTER Associated Press June 30, 2023, 12:06 AM Drought Midwest This photo provided by Mike Shane shows Shane as he stands in his corn field near Peoria, Ill., Tuesday, June 27, 2023. By now, the corn stalks should be 10 feet high. Instead, they’re barely up to Shane’s waist. Illinois and other corn-growing states in the cent...Show more The Associated Press ST. LOUIS -- Mike Shane’s Illinois farm got a nice soaking on May 8, shortly after he planted his corn crop. Since then, rain has been hard to come by. Plenty of storms have ventured close only to fizzle out before making it to Shane’s 200-acre spread near Peoria. “It comes across the Mississippi River and then just disappears,” Shane, 47, said. “My corn looks absolutely terrible right now.” Without substantial rain soon, “I just don’t see any hope for it,” he said. Heavy rain over the winter eased the drought in the West, but now the middle of the country is extraordinarily dry. Crops are stressed, rivers are running low, and cities and towns are anxiously hoping for a break in the weather. Experts say the drought in the central U.S. is the worst since at least 2012, and in some areas, is drawing comparisons to the 1988 drought that devastated corn, wheat and soybean crops. This year, although temperatures have been generally mild through the spring and early days of summer, rainfall has been sorely lacking. The U.S. Drought Monitor, operated by the federal government and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, reports that nearly half of Kansas is in either extreme or exceptional drought condition — the highest drought designation. More than a quarter of Nebraska is in extreme drought, and 13% is in exceptional drought. Arid conditions permeate Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Missouri and Kentucky. The frequency and intensity of droughts and rainfall are increasing due to burning fossil fuels and other human activity that releases greenhouse gases, according to data from a pair of satellites used to measure changes in Earth’s water storage. The study was published in March in the journal Nature Water. Adam Hartman, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said some parts of the central U.S. have been experiencing extreme drought since the winter. In other states, “flash droughts” have popped up over the past 2-3 months. “As a result you’ve see drastic losses in topsoil, subsoil moisture,” Hartman said. “We’ve seen ground water levels start to lower as well. We’ve seen stream flows start to decline.” Crops are feeling the impact. The U.S. Department of Agriculture now rates only half of the U.S. corn crop as good or excellent — the lowest percentage since 1988. Nearly two-thirds of the nation’s corn-growing areas are in drought. “That gives us some indicator that we’re seeing widespread stress on those crops throughout the Corn Belt,” said Krista Swanson, an economist for the National Corn Growers Association. If rains don't arrive soon, Swanson believes total yield could be down about 1 billion bushels from the original projection of 16.7 billion bushels. That won’t necessarily mean higher costs for consumers because much of the corn is used for feed, ethanol or is exported, Swanson said. The real impact is on the farmers. “Their cost-per-acre is the same regardless of what they produce,” Swanson said. “In these years where we have lower production, on the farmer side that’s a challenge.” Water levels are dipping in rivers. The Mississippi River — especially from southern Illinois to the south — is extremely low in many spots. It was just last fall that the river reached or neared record low-water marks in several places, only to bounce back to flood levels in the spring, before the latest drought-fueled decline. Lynn Muench, a senior vice president for the American Waterways Operators, which advocates for the tugboat, towboat and barge industry, said barge capacity is being voluntarily reduced on parts of the Mississippi River. Losing capacity is a financial setback but operators are taking it in stride, Muench said. “We’re a flexible and resilient industry so we’ll keep going,” he said. Colin Wellenkamp, executive director of the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative, said many communities are on edge. The drought last fall cost river communities billions of dollars in losses due to increased energy and water purification costs, lost tourism revenue, commodity losses and other hits. “Now we’re right back into drought again,” Wellenkamp said. So far, impact has been minimal, “but if we don’t get relief in July, that’s all going to change,” he said. On Shane's 200-acre farm, corn should be standing 10 feet tall by now. It's barely to his waist. The leaves are yellowed and Shane isn't certain the ears of corn are even developing. “If that's the case, it's worthless,” he said. But farmers aren't giving up hope. Swanson said the El Nino weather pattern that has taken hold typically means more rain and better growing conditions in the central U.S. “We could see more favorable weather over the next two months, which could have a positive impact,” she said. But even with El Nino, Hartman noted that the seasonal outlook for the summer months projects below-normal rainfall. “This drought could stick around for a little bit,” Hartman said.
PEPPERSTONE:CORNLong
by JSAL
Corn broke the upper side of the rangeEASYMARKETS:CRNUSD Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:CRNUSD
by easyMarkets
Corn Short, Technical, Fundamental and COT Analysis Current Corn Short Entered originally, and admittedly prematurely, when we saw price touch the 61.8% fib retracement level. Entered a short position last month as price has been steadily falling since June last year. The falling price of corn is being caused by simply an overabundance of supply, and a lack of increased demand. On the supply side, we have seen Corn acreage in the USA increase by ~10%. At the same time, Brazil has also been growing record amounts of corn. One of the factors which lead to Corns high in 2022 was the Russo-Ukrainian war and Ukraine's inability to export their produce. This is simply not the case anymore, as of now, Ukrainian exports have begun to pick back up to pre-invasion levels. Demand has failed to increase with these pro-supply events. Over the past four years we have seen American cattle herds, who are the largest consumers of Corn, slowly shrinking to lows not seen since the 50s. This is mostly due to an increase in local droughts which have made it harder to graze cattle, a preferable alternative to cattle feed due to the cheaper costs. This has caused the overall demands for Corn to shrink as there are less cattle overall to consume Corn and Corn products due to the drought. Non-Commercial traders, as can be seen through COT filings, are a majority short Corn. 528,280 short positions are currently held by Non-Coms vs 295,676 longs. Latest COT filings do show a slight increase in Net Positions (Longs-Shorts) compared to the previous. Possibly due to profit taking by Non-Commercials. My Entry was based on Technical analysis, mostly an apparent Fib retracement. I saw price close in the "Golden Zone" on the 27th of Feb and as I am heavily Bearish on Corn, took it as an opportunity to enter short. This entry was rather early and if I am closed, with my SL at 4.208, I will look to re-enter at a later date.
OANDA:CORNUSDShort
by DedoAUS
corn weekly breakout coming ?I see that in the last 2 major tops in Corn futures had significant pops at the .786 fib retracement and never completed the H&S to baseline and my premise is that its baked in inflation and it will happen again truncated descent right here. Its in a wedge descending to a narrow point and ready to meander upwards steadilly or pop I also think food prices and corn are not in step due to export bans on corn from USA in many countries but I believe the balance is achieved now.
OANDA:CORNUSDLong
by NuclearSunset
The Corn Market Rundown: Prices, Acres, and WeatherJust a heads up, I'm not a commodity expert, but I'm keen to give it my best shot. So, keep that in mind as we dive in! Have you been tracking corn prices recently? You might've noticed a halt at the $7.15 level, a mark set last September and October. Likely, a lot of investors decided to take profits at this level. All this is happening just before Friday's acreage report, which many believe could significantly influence the market. Expectations around this report are varied. Some anticipate a similar outlook to the last report in March. Others predict a significant drop in corn acres planted - think 500k+ acres less. If the actual numbers come in below market expectations, it should be a positive shift for corn prices. In the grain stock department, the USDA surprised everyone with their last report. The grain stock numbers came in lower than what most folks expected, and it did stir the pot. A critical factor that everyone is keeping tabs on is the condition of the crops. Currently, there's a severe drought in the Corn Belt, and we're experiencing some of the worst crop conditions since 1988. Some regions are even on track for the driest June ever. That's not exactly a record anyone wanted to break. On a brighter note, weather forecasts indicate some much-needed rain is coming to the Corn Belt. The coverage looks a bit uneven, and it's challenging to predict the exact amount (1, 2, 3 inches, etc.). So the question remains, will it be enough? So let's sum this up. We've got to pay attention to three key things: acreage numbers, stock numbers, and weather patterns. Here are three possible scenarios: Base Scenario: No change in acreage and stock numbers, and the Corn Belt gets the necessary rainfall. Worst Case for Corn Prices: Acreage and stock numbers come in higher than expected, and the Corn Belt gets enough rainfall. Best Case for Corn Prices: Acreage and stock numbers come in lower than expected, and the Corn Belt receives little to no rainfall. Looking back at the corn price chart, the post-pandemic price surge seems to be slowing down. Some might even spot an angled head and shoulders pattern on the daily. If the price breaks below $5.70, it's not a great sign for corn. A further drop below $5.30 is even more concerning. If you measure the head and shoulders pattern from the head to the neckline, prices could potentially revert back to pre-pandemic ranges. In conclusion, if you're considering going long on corn, or if you're a farmer, a scenario of lower acreage numbers, lower stocks, and little to no rain in the belt could open up a good opportunity to go long, book profits, or negotiate better contracts. I hope this analysis helps anyone trying to navigate the corn market. As always, stay vigilant and keep those reports and weather forecasts close by!
OANDA:CORNUSD
by natron