2021-08-17 Copper - shortHead and shoulders. Waiting for break of trendline - short to $3.8 USD / LB maybe $3.5
COPPER trade ideas
Head and shoulders reversal pattern completes by next weekIt's been said that copper XCUUSD has a PhD in economics because of its predictive price action. In other words, what happens to copper tends to happen to the markets at large. That's why I always keep it on my radar. If this reversal signal completes there are plenty of structural fundamental reasons why we might see a rather devastating downward movement. I should add that this signal should complete in lockstep with the time frame that reputable analysts and bankers have predicted will bring a very nasty downturn.
Our markets have been propped up for quite some time. In the shadows of the bullish sentiment that the market's given us in this Fed-fueled run-up, there are now voices echoing caution about the big banks being over-leveraged on certain famously over-leveraged short positions that are getting louder and louder every day.
Some of these more precarious over-leveraged positions have been accomplished through share lending/borrowing/rehypothecation. That is the artificial dilution of a company's stock, supposedly performed as a service, by bad actors like Citadel. That practice has long been suspected to have been done to keep share prices of certain securities artificially low. These are securities were assumed to be dead in the water because of COVID, barely living carcasses being picked apart by scavengers. It's rumored that Citadel et al, expecting shareholders to be easily scared off by their vulnerable business models, had taken naked short positions in these securities. What with their artificially diluting them and somewhat sentient shareholders able to see the writing on the wall, these bad actors thought they'd be able to run the companies into the ground and they'd feast on what was left.
For example, there is a statistical probability that there are shares in excess of all the shares ever issued by AMC in shareholder accounts right this moment. You can't get there without the creation of synthetic shares, of course, and there are only a few way synthetic shares get created. It certainly isn't because of little Joey Rosenblatt playing with his Bar Mitvah money on Robinhood, is it?
The really bad news for those who've engaged in creating synthetic dilution is that there's been a grass-roots share count. It's been verified by a software called Plaid threads with brokerage APIs to show how many shares there are in participating shareholder accounts. The count finished this past Sunday and at the minimum there are 3X the issued shares out there. This can only be accomplished through methods available exclusively to big players like CItadel. It's due to share lending, rehypothecation, and ETF arbitrage. That's a big, big mothereffin problem. They're going to eventually have to buy those back to close those positions. And that's just AMC.
Let's turn to another similarly f'd up naked short position...
Janet Yellen, in her side-job working as Secretary of the Treasury, has been quietly fighting crypto provisions in the new infrastructure bill to protect her true masters at Citadel. If you didn't know, she's doubled her net worth in the past couple of years by capitalizing on her ability to influence what happens with regard to monetary policy. One thing we know for sure is that no one talking at their computer has ever made that much money doing it for so little time. At least, not with their clothes on. Certainly no one with that much to offer in terms of information and/or influence big banks would want with regard to the US government.
Why does the crypto provision draw so much of our attention? Because the US government wants to try to centralize crypto. One reason why that's significant right now is that a similarly over-leveraged security, GameStop GME, is believed to have at least as many synthetic shares in shareholder accounts as AMC. The percentage of synthetic shares may dwarf those of AMC, and the new head honcho seems to be preparing to bring the company into the blockchain space. The major concern that anyone over-leveraged in their short position would have with this is that it's up to those with short positions to pay any dividend a company might issue on a one-to-one dividend-to-share basis. If the company decides the dividend is to be something that can't be expressed in dollars and cents, but something that can only be expressed in 1s and 0s, then that can lead to a share count. If that happens then the synthetic shares that had been created to short the company will come to light, it will reveal the true supply/demand relationship, and thereby price discovery will follow.
Due to legal gags on information about official share counts there's no way for the public at large to know for sure how many synthetic shares have actually been created. There are those who know but they aren't allowed to tell anyone. Before you ask, yes, they're still allowed to describe it as a free market despite this bullshit, totally insane practice of hiding the true supply and demand. What we know is that they've done everything they can to get shareholders to sell. They've been routing buy orders away from lit markets to keep those purchases from creating upward pressure on the price action. They've been flooding both mainstream and social media with all kinds of misinformation and purposefully misleading asshattery. These efforts alone have been glaringly conspicuous, laughable in how poorly hidden they've been. They've tried and failed time and time again.
Shareholders aren't selling.
And all this time the premiums on their short positions, all the fees for their borrowed shares, it bleeds them continuously. While they've been dripping dry the shareholders continue to buy more and convince others to do so.
All this at the same time as a housing crisis once again looms, big banks break records selling bonds, and a cresting tidal wave slowly towers over the coastline.
Or I'm wrong and copper's fine. This is just me seeing, ya know, what I want. Or something.
Dr. Copper needs a doctor? Electrification on pause?With the electrification trade in play, we should see copper continuing to rise. But it's getting close to breaking below it's daily SuperTrend and if it goes below 4.0, the bears might be back.
Lithium looks like it might also be struggling. If lithium is a huge part of the electrification trade, and it starts to fail... Where there's smoke there's fire?
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 33 – Complex correction in the making.Copper respected our previous forecast, as the price pushed for another bearish move before bouncing off the trendline.
In the coming days, we anticipate the pair to slowly rise and make a new top inside the correction.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 32 – Bulls edging closer.Copper respected our previous forecast, as the price drop towards the support area.
In the coming days, we anticipate the price to make a fake support break-out, before reversing and make a new top inside the correction.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
Copper Futures SHORT Trade IdeaShort Copper Futures (HGU1 = Copper Futures for Sept 2021). It has made series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs, expecting one more Lower Low. This is a simple price action of Copper Futures.
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 31 – Expecting another bullish move.Copper respected our previous forecast, as the price gained bullish momentum.
In the coming days, we anticipate the price to drop towards the first support area, followed by a reversal that is expected to break the top again.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
COPPER- Poised for a Correction Copper prices snapped a five-session winning streak on Tuesday as investors held off on making large bets ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting expected to give more direction on monetary policy.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.8% at $9,735 per tonne at 1635 GMT, after touching its highest since June 15 at $9,924.
“Given the scale of moves we have seen since the (close of business) 19th July ... some sort of pause was to be expected especially given the Fed’s two-day meet,”.
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 30 – Bulls are knocking on the door.Copper dropped at the beginning of the week, but shortly reversed, and now is making another attempt to break the resistance.
In the coming days, we are expecting the price to increase and make a fake break-out, but shortly after we are expecting another drop that will push the price towards the support.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
Don’t Forget About CopperCopper had a dramatic run coming out of the pandemic, more than doubling between March 2020 and May 2021. Now, after a period of consolidation, it may be ready for more upside.
First consider the ascending triangle that’s formed with a top around $4.35. It’s currently attempting its highest close in six weeks, which could result in a breakout. Traders may now focus on the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) as the next resistance line.
Second, CUUUSD also made a lower low this week, which means you have a bullish outside candle on the weekly chart. It follows a small inside candle the previous week. Price action like that suggests that the phase of tightening is near an end and prices may be ready to expand again:
Third, notice how MACD has been steadily rising all of July.
Copper’s fundamentals are also interesting because the red metal benefits from the spread of electric vehicles. (This stands in stark contrast to the other global-growth commodity, crude oil.) There are also supply constraints, especially with politicians in Chile and Peru looking to invest less in mines.
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COPPER: Nice correction and resuming of uptrendAre we on a long or short now? Copper has rising significantly following the COVID sell off last year and with stronger demand from the EV industry, this could go even higher. Technically the chart points to a breakout to the upside until it hits a double top. Let's see how this unfolds. For the moment, I am LONG !
COPPER-Wave "b"(red) is a triangle now "C" to 1.4450 for X)?Market Commentary:
LEARNING ELLIOTT WAVES IS LITTLE BIT TOUGH (FOR ME IN BEGINNING) BUT I TOOK IT AS A CHALLENGE AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALSO...
First have an look for the positional trend i shared here previous....if you are a follower of me...and sometimes i will share the counter trend trade also in 15 mins and 1hr...but that is risky ones...so if the trend is bearish or bullish, if i am expecting the correction...book the profit there and wait the correction to end and again go with the trend....DONT TRADE THE COUNTER TRADE SETUP...you will took loss too...try to identify the short term pull back and the long term pull back after that took small lots in the short term PB with strict stop and go with big lots in the trend side that is long term. I WONT TOOK ALL THE TRADE PLAN SHARED HERE...
Read the market commentary inside the chart what i shared here carefully and try to learn Elliott waves...otherwise its tough to understand the market commentary and my analysis. I wont give a entry, stop loss and take profit in my chart...it is only for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE and i am sharing how i am analyzing the pair and labeling them according to the Elliott wave theory...I AM JUST SHOWING THE TREND HOW IT MAY GO AND MY VIEW(it may wrong too)..so DON'T FOLLOW BLINDLY MY CHART..take this as a reference and if it correlate to you strategy took the trade as per your strategy...DON'T ASK ABOUT YOUR RUNNING TRADES i wont comment on them and I WONT SUGGEST TO TAKE MY TRADE SETUP.
I am a technical analyst based on trendline, channel, fib retracements, expansion, stochastic for divergence, EMA's and MA's are finding the pull backs and MAJOR IS ELLIOTT WAVES...those mentioned above are using as a TOOLS only. I am not a fundamental, sentimental trader...but only the fundamental will boost my technical analysis to reach my target or sometimes it will go against me and then i will manage the trade according to the Elliott waves alternate views...Each and every trade plan i am sharing here has a alternate view and i am sharing only the most probabilities(70-80%) here...sometimes the other (20-30%) may market do..then i will change the wave counts and labeling according to the price action.
All labeling and wave counts done by me by manually and i will keep change according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So dont bias, hope on my trade plans...try to learn and make your own strategy...Following is not that much easy...I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES IF U TOOK THE TRADE ACCORDING TO MY TRADE PLANS....THANKS LOT..CHEERS
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 29 – In the middle of a correction.Copper ranged the entire week, as the price refused to reach the resistance level.
In the coming days, we are expecting the price to increase and hit the resistance area again, followed by a reversal that can reach the support area.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 28 – Another drop is close.Last week, we correctly anticipated Copper to start a correction that will push the price towards the resistance level.
In the coming days, we are expecting the price to slightly break the resistance area, followed by a reversal that can reach the support area.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
COPPER-Running flat in wave "b" ? "C" to 4.430 ?Market Commentary:
LEARNING ELLIOTT WAVES IS LITTLE BIT TOUGH (FOR ME IN BEGINNING) BUT I TOOK IT AS A CHALLENGE AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE ALSO...
First have an look for the positional trend i shared here previous....if you are a follower of me...and sometimes i will share the counter trend trade also in 15 mins and 1hr...but that is risky ones...so if the trend is bearish or bullish, if i am expecting the correction...book the profit there and wait the correction to end and again go with the trend....DONT TRADE THE COUNTER TRADE SETUP...you will took loss too...try to identify the short term pull back and the long term pull back after that took small lots in the short term PB with strict stop and go with big lots in the trend side that is long term. I WONT TOOK ALL THE TRADE PLAN SHARED HERE...
Read the market commentary inside the chart what i shared here carefully and try to learn Elliott waves...otherwise its tough to understand the market commentary and my analysis. I wont give a entry, stop loss and take profit in my chart...it is only for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE and i am sharing how i am analyzing the pair and labeling them according to the Elliott wave theory...I AM JUST SHOWING THE TREND HOW IT MAY GO AND MY VIEW(it may wrong too)..so DON'T FOLLOW BLINDLY MY CHART..take this as a reference and if it correlate to you strategy took the trade as per your strategy...DON'T ASK ABOUT YOUR RUNNING TRADES i wont comment on them and I WONT SUGGEST TO TAKE MY TRADE SETUP.
I am a technical analyst based on trendline, channel, fib retracements, expansion, stochastic for divergence, EMA's and MA's are finding the pull backs and MAJOR IS ELLIOTT WAVES...those mentioned above are using as a TOOLS only. I am not a fundamental, sentimental trader...but only the fundamental will boost my technical analysis to reach my target or sometimes it will go against me and then i will manage the trade according to the Elliott waves alternate views...Each and every trade plan i am sharing here has a alternate view and i am sharing only the most probabilities(70-80%) here...sometimes the other (20-30%) may market do..then i will change the wave counts and labeling according to the price action.
All labeling and wave counts done by me by manually and i will keep change according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So dont bias, hope on my trade plans...try to learn and make your own strategy...Following is not that much easy...I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSSES IF U TOOK THE TRADE ACCORDING TO MY TRADE PLANS....THANKS LOT..CHEERS
Will copper recover short term momentum?Economic set up says 'probably' despite all the transitory chatter e.g. Infrastructure and EVs all create decent demand pull. Back end of the year could smell deflationary, but that is really only because of the difficult comparisons from a super massive reflation. ie everything will look like a slowdown.
If she goes I'd expect a little back test and maybe even some consolidation.
Bullish for now, but will drop on rejection and trend reversal.
