Is there enough juice to push Gold back above $2000?The tides have turned this week for Precious Metals after a stunning collapse in CPI, followed by a series of weaker economic data points. Fed fund futures are questioning the Federal Reserve's hard stance. Currently, the latest CME FedWatch tool indicates a 2% chance for the first interest rate cut in January, followed by a 35% chance in March and a 65% chance in May. The modest uptick in initial claims data helped fuel the recovery in Gold, and bargain-hunters aggressively stepped into the Silver market. The Gold/Silver ratio quickly retreated from 87:1 back down to 83:1, leaving us to wonder if this rally is for real.
Taking it to the Charts
After pressing the 50 DMA and trading down to our pocket support ($1950-$1938), Gold futures were able to stage a strong recovery, slicing through the 200 DMA. We want to carefully monitor key resistance levels at $2000 and $2020. Any breach above should trigger the next wave of short covering followed by fresh buying.
Remember that every bull market starts with a short-covering rally. Momentum studies are turning higher, with stochastics rising from oversold territory, followed by the MACD histogram, which is also beginning to rise. We see value in adding short-term options above the breakout point of $2020 and adding micro futures on any weakness to our pocket support. The technicals leave you with a clear line in the sand below $1938 for risk management purposes.
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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