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HG1! trade ideas

AUDAustralian dollar looks like a buy relative to US dollar. The Australian dollar the copper have a high correlation of movement between them. Copper has recently made new all time highs in US dollar terms. The Australian dollar has not made a move yet versus the US dollar while many other commodities have made upwards moves. Australia is a natural resources rich continent with many commodities and it typically booms when commodity prices are high. I think with a coming reevaluation of the US dollar, many people will reprice currencies of countries with a high concentration of commodities higher against the US dollar, essentially backing a country's currency with its commodities.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by ngordon
THREAD #2 : Commodities Update ‼️How it works ? Ask me in comment my chart analysis of the asset you want if it didn't have already done under. If I find something intersting to say and show, I will update the idea with it. A comment of each asset expose will be post under, come react about it or debate. Before to start I want to remind that we are in a period of conflict and news can emerge at any moment with strong effect and reaction on market. So invest carefully on this hard times and reduce your loss exposition on market when you can. Don't forget to take profit too. "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" As I've already done ideas on copper last months, let's start with it. COPPER ✅ First of all, if you follow my ideas you can see it's the same chart than the 29th of December when I posted it and the 20th of January for the trade. It is attached under and I invit you to see it because it will be the continuation of these analysis. So we are always in the Wyckoff Accumulation which have been developped, pullback on creek is done, and SOS too. Unfortunetly SOS failed so for me it's an end of the pattern. By consequence major part of my position have been closed and I will explain next why I keep a little which I not do usually. Why SOS is a fail ? Simply because we have selling volume, on the resistance area, on a primary resistance (yellow line) and because we have also selling pressure in it. The work have been done for the pattern, we took profit but can't project anymore in a term of "Wyckoff accumulation" of a bull continuation. So what to expect now from it ? The standard expectation after a failed SOS is to go back on the support area, usely rapidly and strongly, and invert the pattern in a way that we will now test the buying strenght on support. So we can expect a retest of support with an SOS to see, if it succeed, a bear continuation. That my scenario (a), and technically the most probable for me. BUT we have to live with our time and with the macroeconomic dynamic that we deal with. I will not hide that if the conflict between Russia-Ukraine continu and maybe gets worse, this will be a boost for every metals assets. That why I closed only 80% of my position, I can't advise to take long position anymore but it's could be wise to take profit and keep a part of your position if you are already in it. We can handle the technics evolutions but we can't handle the macroeconomic evolutions. If it this scenario (b) happen, we will see the construction of an LPS around $4.60 before to break up to the target around $5.70 in a first time. Take care of volatility, it will swing. GOLD ✅ Like for the copper, the chart don't have change since the commodities update of the 20th of January. We are coming to the end of the bull scenario. I invit to take profits on the conjoncture of the resistance area and the (2c) resistance. There is no interest to sell a refuge asset like gold, even more in this time of conflict. So if there is selling signals take it like an opportunity to buy it lower. Especially here, we will wait for buying signals on the (1b) or (1a) support and the best case would be the support area of $1,700 - $1,675 but far from now. For peoples already exposed on it, if it continu is bull movement and breakout the resistance area, we will be in price discovery so it's always hard to find targets in it because of volatility, but I don't expect it to go higher than $2,500 - $2,600 where we will probably find a big selling pressure. SILVER ✅ Like targeted in the last commodities update we are now on resistances of the downward channel. I don't expect a breakout of (1b) and the resistance area, so for me we will see the construction of a range between them around $27 and $29. The biggest probability for me is a bull outcome of the range to target the (1c) resistance (scenario A) and probably more after. If we reject the resistance strongly after lateralization I expect price to go deeply retest the (1a) support around $20 (scenario B). And finally if we see a reject of (2a) / (1b) soon, we could expect a short consolidation to (2b) before to go back again to the resistance area (scenario C). Like every metals, It would be dumb to expose yourself on the bear side in a period of conflict. More wise to wait consolidation and signals around the orange circles areas. PALLADIUM ✅ Palladium is another successfull prediction we had in the last commodities update. In term of evolution now it is very close from the copper analysis because we made an SOS which has also failed. So technically, the biggest probability is to see it go down on the (2b) line in a first time (scenario A) maybe more with (1a) before to retest the resistance (1b). If the macroeconomic dynamic bring it higher we could see an interesting area to enter on a buying signal on the pullback on (1b) (scenario B). Else we could go straight to (1c) around $4,500 - $4,600 before to see a strong selling pressure on price discovery. PLATINUM ✅ Platinum is also targeting the prediction of the last update. In term of perspective now it's more blurry for it. The most interesting pattern that we could see is for me a reject of (2a) to go down to (2b) which could be a nice entry on signal around $950. Else, probabilities to see it continu on the bull side are strong but I'm not confident on any areas, except the support of $860, to target entries once we will reach the resistance area of $1,340 - $1,270. CRUDE OIL ✅ I said in last update : "If I had an advice to give : stay away or be on short timeframe on this asset. Too much risk to see price manipulated by news on this public interest asset." and so after +30% in a week we have to look back on montly timeframe to search resistances. I believe in the fact that it will fall as rapidly as it surged and I also believe in the fact that we will not stay a long time at this level. Oh .... wait ! Just don't take care of what I just said, like the last commodities update it's just a manipulated asset and price will go where OPEP want to see it. So stay away of it. For those who really want my technical analysis it is : I think we can do an ATH just to say : "It's all time high !" but we will find a strong selling pressure because of (1b) and fall down rapidly. WHEAT ✅ Similar to oil technically, boosted by the macroeconomic context we did a new ATH and seen a strong selling pressure. However I don't think it's wise to sell it. We totally outbreak the range we was looking to in the last update, now if we break the resistance it could go really high but you will be attached to macroeconomic news so I advise to also stay away of it in both side.Take profits if you are exposed on it. SUGAR ✅ Rectification from the last update : we are always in the Wyckoff reaccumulation. I thought it failed because of the candle of the 10th of January but it seems to be an anomaly of market and the structure around the 28th of February confort me in the fact that it is a spring. Now we have jumped over the creek so the best area to target entry is, like for the copper pattern, the pullback on the creek. It's exactly the same pattern that we had on copper now, so just wait signals. If it go straight without pullback just let it go and don't buy in the resistance area before a breakout, there is a lot of resistances which will bring many pressure I think for the SOS. 🛑 Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue! 🛑
COMEX:HG1!
by Kentg
26
One of the best spot of 2022 already here AND commodities updateFirst this idea is attached to another idea I've posted last year, you can find it attached to this one and it explain all the pattern we are working here: the Wyckoff Reaccumulation on Copper (HG1!). So you will find here, my entry, my plan for this trade and the update about the related idea. I will also do an update about the materials market, expectations and targets in form of a thread in comment so don't forget to follow the idea to see it. So first the update of the related idea. I said for the end of the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern that I didn't expect a spring, and my poisition about it is always the same. It will be interesting to see if buying volumes continues to grow, but if it's the case it will be the confirmation of that statement. For the moment, I think we are targeting the resistance area and an SOS to see if we could expect the confirmation of the global pattern and so a bullish continuation. I also said that I will aim for an entry on the retest of the creek. Retest happened exactly on the January 6th for the bottom and I didn't find interesting setup to entry on it, so that why I waited a little to find a setup that could satisfied my interest: We can see on chart two channel, which have already both gave their target (a is the base support, b is the resistance, c is the target). What interest me here is the reaction on the pullback of (b) resistances of each one. Pullback on (2b) is a perfect V-Turn and pullback on (1b) is an accumulation (I would have preferred if it was an U-Turn but we have an akward double bottom in it). The structure in volume in this accumulation range is good, we have nice exhaust volume before, buying volumes are bigger than selling volumes (that what we want in a range and also when volumes are impacted by sessions to read them, typically on hourly timeframe) and to finish we have a nice breakout with buying volumes so the setup is completed. Now in term of plan, in a question of regularity in profitability, I'm looking for a ratio of 2:1 which bring us in the resistance area (which is good with our plan of Wyckoff pattern which expect an SOS around here). Exception here, because of the Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern I don't expect a full target, but only around 40%, then 20% on the first SOS and to finish (if the SOS setup is convincing of course, else it will be out before) last 40% on the 1st objective of the Wyckoff pattern around $5.688 . It's really important to take multiple profit when you are on long term timeframe. The more you are on market the more there is risk to see change in patterns, in dynamic macroeconomic ... And so, less your probability of success is high. So take profit, fix targets/price and don't be afraid to take profit at the top, don't wait market to fall back. Else, secure your earnings, you can't lose money on winning trade! That why for my trades, I'm mostly breakeven at 1:1 ratio. Another time, I invite you to check the first idea I posted, attached to this one. Now I think we made the turn for copper, if you have questions be free to ask me in comments. I will now update the idea with other commodities perspectives. I will comment only those where I have identify patterns in my strategy with area to target for entry. I think metals assets will be one of the key of 2022, most of charts are well oriented to see bullish progression, macro-economically it is also oriented in that way.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Kentg
Leading Indicators messyWith the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy... The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities The VALUG looking for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF is spiking after a gap up, bullish for TIPS -> Inflation is exploding! Ususally bullish for equities, but in this instance, not likely. The TLT ETF is bottom feeding, and there is a MACD bullish divergence -> this suggests that the fear is not yet great enough for a flight to safety. Not yet. The VIX just broke out of a trend line and is pushing towards 45. The HG1! copper futures suggest an anomalous accumulation of copper, maybe forerunning the equities market upwards, but otherwise, if a general reflection of commodities rocketing in prices. Overall, Bearish bias on equities, with the chance of a quick rebound soon... but not before a spike down first. Totally tied to the Russian Ukraine events for now.
COMEX:HG1!
by Auguraltrader
COPPER is one of the best investments on a 2 year basisInvestors looking for value long-term better have a look at Copper, which has been consolidating ever since its May 2021 All Time High (ATH). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting all this time, indicating that the market has found a new long-term demand zone where buyers step in. The last time a similar demand level on the 1W MA50 took place was half-way through Copper's historic parabolic rally of the 2000s. In particular, in February 2004, the market made a similar High (red flag), then turned sideways into a +1 year accumulation period, when again the 1W MA50 was supporting. Eventually that demand level initiated the last and more aggressive part of this rally during 2005-2006. The 1W RSI sequences between the accumulation phases of today and 2004 are also identical. The 2006 rally peaked a little higher than the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That should be a solid benchmark for long-term investors looking for value. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
1
Copper - a barometer for stock market performance There are more ways than you and I can think of in analysing the stock market performance. From very complex charting tools to using stars alignment, for as long as stock market exists, people are obsessed with coming with tools to predict the market. Copper, for a long time has been touted as a good stock market barometer (if you believe in it). Using the weekly chart, we can see that copper price has hit a resistance level , back to where it was in 2011 (11 years ago). Is it any coincidence we are seeing some correction in the stock market now ? I leave that judgement to you !
COMEX:HG1!Long
by dchua1969
HG1! (COPPER) STILL IN A TRIANGLEHG1! (COPPER) is still making a triangle on the primary degree 4th wave. We will finish the triangle around 61.8% or 78.6% of Fibonacci. The 78.6% area is also a trend-line support zone. With the high chance, we will rebound from the trend-line area. Wave E can take further time to develop. DISCLOSURE - Please be informed that the information I provide is not a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of my work is for educational purposes only. All labeling and wave count have been done by me manually and I will keep changing according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So don't bias, hope on my trade plans. Try to learn Elliott Wave or other strategies and make your own strategy. Following is not that much easy. I am not responsible for any losses if u took the trade according to my trade plans. #HG #HG1! #COPPER
COMEX:HG1!
by anantadhungana
Feb 10, 22 Copper Sell Almost TimeDr. Copper is almost ready to embark on a SELL of epic proportions - at least that's what the MACD Indicator is telling us. When the blue line crosses over the red line heading down? Oh boy!! Notice that you are looking at the Monthly Chart. If you check on the web for monthly charts for Copper re MACD history, you will find that when this 'DEATH CROSS' occurs, there is usually a recession (which we will be in sometime over the next several months), a stock meltdown (which we will be in sometime over the next several months), and more or less 'the world is ending' feeling (which we will be in sometime over the next several months). When you look at the MACD the red and blue line are very very close, and with todays sell off it is getting even closer. I'm not saying that this is a trade that's going to happen next week, but definately sometime over the next few months - just something I'm keeping an eye on to make a lot of money. I hope you do too :-) HEIKO
COMEX:HG1!Short
by HEIKOTradingSystem
9