2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Sideways again. No deeper meaning to it. Nasdaq has not touched the daily 20ema over the last days but is creeping higher again. Lows are bought so it’s reasonable to expect bears to give up unless something unexpected happens (e.g. very bad earnings but the probability is very low). Bull wedge has not a lot of room anymore, so the odds of a big breakout, this week, are good.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment : We are moving in a nested bull channel inside the bigger bull wedge. We are making higher highs and higher lows again but barely. Buying above 20500 has been unprofitable for a week now but also selling below 20400. One side will give up soon, can wait for the bigger breakout instead of trading this trading range. Having said that, bulls are still in control since bears could not even touch the daily ema for two weeks now.
current market cycle: Bull trend (nested bull wedges)
key levels: 20000 - 21000
bull case: Bulls grinding this higher again but we also see decent selling in between. It’s buy low and sell high inside the channel. Don’t overstay your welcome in positions and don’t bet on a breakout. Their next target is a breakout above the current channel and a retest of 20700. Above that they would need a daily close above 20700 and then market is free to retest 21000+ again.
Invalidation is below 20300.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 20300. If they get that, next target would be 20200 and then they have a decent chance of testing 19900 again, where the bull trend line from August runs through. So even if they get all that, the downside is probably very limited for now.
Invalidation is above 20700.
short term: Neutral
medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. I do think we see 21000 before we see 19600.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying the US open 20400 since previous support was 20340ish and upside potential was to 20500 at least.
