Trade is based off ICT TGIF SetupMarket has been bearish all week anticipating Friday producing an ICT TGIF setup.
MES1! trade ideas
ES levels & targets July 19thPlan for Friday: supports are 5585 (major), 5575, 5566-68 (major), 5558, 5553, 5542 (major), 5534, 5527, 5519 (major), 5511, 5502 (major), 5491, 5482 (major).
With the short idea at 5628 working so well today and bringing us down past 5585, I’ve decided to add a small long late day on the 5585 reclaim, seeing us put in a nice late day failed breakdown (Deja Vu from yesterday). In this case, we flushed the 1230PM 5590 low, then reclaimed, entering with part of today’s profits. As I’ve mentioned for two days now, I see sellers being in control still until buyers can conclusively reclaim some major resistances to turn that around, with 5630 being first up. Until then, all longs should be treated as high risk, high failure rate, and with small size. When bears are in control and ES is making new lows, I call these “knife catches” and they are inherently dangerous, in the same way shorting a new high in an uptrend is. From where we are now, 5585 is first support down, and this backtests the triangle shown in red. We’ve already worked this level quite extensively, it may have another test left in it though. If it does fail and we make a new low, the next major support down is 5666-68. While one could “knife catch” this, I’d rather see us flush today’s low, tag that zone, then reclaim to try a small long for a safer setup. Could this fail? Yes, bears are in control. Longs have been brutally spoiled now for weeks with every single long working, and now longs have to put a little more effort into where, and how one enters. If 5666 fails, I’d be looking at 5542 and 5519 as spots to try small sized longs.
Resistances are: 5593, 5598 (major), 5608 (major), 5611, 5616 (major), 5621, 5630-32 (major), 5640 (major), 5646 (major), 5649, 5655, 5660, 5668 (major). Obviously the 5630-32 level is a big one from here. One could try shorting it on the backtest and it may produce a decent reaction. Personally, I won’t be taking this as I’ll probably still be long into it, and I am not a fan of flipping long to short in macro uptrends.
Buyers case: Bears are currently in control, so 5630 must be reclaimed to give bulls their first technical "win" and shift the momentum back in their favor. For bulls, the goal tomorrow is for 5630 to be retested. Ideally, this retest would hold us above the 5585 level after today’s late-day failed breakdown. If there’s another low, it should be a brief dip below today’s low followed by a quick recovery. The bounce would then need to progress through 5608, 5616, and finally to 5630, which is a crucial level. A long entry is viable above 5630, but it requires patience and volume for confirmation and a pullback first, making it a more advanced entry.
Sellers case: The sellers case is now the default until 5630 reclaims. There are a couple shorts available tomorrow. The best is on the fail of 5566. As I say often, these types of shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is trapping retail traders with failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) end in trap. Markets always trap before they move. Breakdown trades take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). As always though, I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce/failed breakdown of 5566 first . Only after this takes place, would I consider short 5564 or so for a move down the levels. There is a higher risk short available on the fail of 5585 as well. Again I’d ideally want to see a bounce here first to remove the “trapping factor” out of the level, then short a little below it. You don’t want to rush into these. 5542 would be the magnet for this, but as always take profits lvl to lvl.
In general, Today’s close is much like yesterdays. We had a day of selling, and bears remain fully and completely in control. My general lean is similar to yesterdays but at lower levels; as long as 5585 holds, bulls can try to pop to 5608, 5616, then 5630. If bears to take another leg down, it would be there (or even sooner if they are particularly motivated). If 5585 fails, we likely head down directly again.
Taking a breathI'm looking for the S&P 500 to take a breath on Friday which means I am not looking for a large move down but a smaller range today going into the weekend.
ES OHLC Stat Mapping Textbook setup1:5RR booked ✅
-Manipulation to -Distribution. The most simple setup which repeats every single day...
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How To Understand The Sentiment Drivers Behind The S&PWhat is moving to SPX up relentlessly and how should you trade it?
Lots of Traders are looking at the SPX to catch a potential retracement. This will not occur until the Sentiment drivers behind the market change.
At the moment, very recently, its confusion. This could lead to a larger, sudden change, should any rhetoric from Powell give it fuel.
ES Levels & Targets July 18thYesterday the last downside target I gave for ES was 5645, as long as the 5668-72 backtest rejected, and after 3 tests of it, sellers hit the target. ES certainly agrees with 5645, and we have been basing around here for 4 hours now. As of now: buyers are trying to pop above it now (5652, 58 next up). Ultimately though, sellers still control short term until 5668-72 recovers.
Price Action Review ES 7-17-24 and Overnight 7-18Going over the day's price action ES and the Overnight session. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we should position for the day.
Not looking for follow-through to the downside.I am not looking for a big follow through to the downside in the S&P 500 on Thursday primarily because the action that we saw on Wednesday is due to the anticipation that the US may curb chipmakers because of continued sales of advanced ships to China.
ES Levels & Targets July17thYesterday, the top target i gave in ES was 5723. ES agreed, and we hit 5721.5, before sellers dipped back to 5660s support again. And both short ideas i mentioned in the plan yesterday afternoon have worked with ease.
As of now: 5668-72 is obvious resistance. Buyers must reclaim fast on the backtest to rally up back to upside targets. If it rejects, 5654, 5645 next down.
ES Price Action REview 7-16-24 & Overnight session 7-17-24Going over the price action for Tuesday and the overnight session looking for clues as to what the market is doing and how it wants to proceed going forward. we dont sell strength we sell weakness. no weakness no selling.
618 Fibonacci + Fair Value Gaps + Support took me out of the 9-5Sweet over 60 pts on this play!
Hunting deals have made me the most money
Take a shot at combining the Trinity and get better confluence
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Buyers are holding the highBuyers are holding the high on the close but can they follow through. 5740 would be the next objective to the upside. Watch the Asian and European sessions for continuation of buying. These sessions can provide a clue for follow-through in the US session.
ES Levels/Targets July 16thFor 3 days now, 5668-73 area has been very key in ES. We failed from it Friday afternoon, trapped sellers, then squeezed 50 points. We did the exact same thing yesterday 4pm, and it held again overnight to the tick. As of now: More chop likely. 5679, 5668 are main supports. staying above keeps 5696-98, 5708+ in play. We dip only if 5668-65 fails
Improving Breadth; Caution or Celebration?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5683, up 18.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,583.75, up 59.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures notched a positive session to start the week, but the rebound from last Thursday’s pullback has certainly felt exhausting. Much of the focus has been the rotation to under-loved cyclicals and small caps. In fact, with this morning's extension, E-mini Russell 2000 futures are up more than 8% since Thursday’s CPI report, which showed pockets of disinflation. However, despite a fresh record high in the E-mini S&P yesterday, overhead supply from last Wednesday’s panic buying and Thursday’s reversal has left a thick pocket of damage (resistance) in which both the S&P and NQ have struggled to repair. Over these last two and three sessions, both indices have created upper-end tails on the daily candlestick, a pattern that exudes near-term exhaustion. During recent pullbacks and consolidations before legging higher, both indices also left tails, but on the bottom-end of the daily candlestick. While this type of activity exudes caution, we also consider the chase for performance, yield, or a catch-up from the worst performing assets (small caps) as something that typically shows up before a healthy pullback within a bull market. If you have been following us, you know our Bias has been unequivocally Bullish, but we will now Neutralize our Bias to watch a round or two of this fight. Although many cite improving market breadth, we see this as one sign for near-term caution.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5695.75-5699.25**, 5707.75-5708.25***, 5718.75**, 5762.75****
Pivot: 5683-5688
Support: 5673-5676.50**, 5660-5666****, 5649.75*, 5639.75-5642.50***, 5629.25-5631.25**, 5619.25-5621.50***, 5605-5608.25***, 5581-5588***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 20,661-20,676**, 20,703-20,741***, 20,796-20,822***, 20,900**, 20,983-21,016****
Pivot: 20,620
Support: 20,506-20,525***, 20,425-20,442***, 20,335-20,373***, 20,255-20,274****, 20,206-20,216***, 20,000-20,052**, 19,927***, 19,726-19,756****
Micro Bitcoin (July)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 63,700, up 5,855
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 64,810-65,530***, 67,460-67,710**, 68,643***
Pivot: 63,695
Support: 62,615-62,987***, 61,775-62,035**, 60,810-61,187***, 59,880**, 57,500-57,845***
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
ES short term short setupMy analysis suggest a short term bearish move for ES and NQ towards Previous weeks low, with minimum target previous day low
ES price action rEview 7-15-24 and overnight session 7-16-24going over both the days price action and the Overnight session for Tuesday. looking for clues and how we're positioning ourselves for the day ahead.
ES selloff is comingHello traders,
Today, I'll share my analysis of the S&P 500 E-mini Futures using Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) and key zones identification across multiple timeframes. The attached chart highlights a potential shift in the market trend.
Based on the current setup, today's movement shows an upthrust, indicating that sellers were trapped during the initial up move. This pattern often precedes a trend reversal, as smart money may be preparing for a downward shift. We anticipate a retest of the lower channels. These channels, derived from higher timeframes, act as support zones where buying interest may resume. If the price fails to hold at the Fibonacci levels and we observe increasing volume on down bars, it could signal a continuation of the downtrend. Watch for short entries if VSA signals confirm selling pressure.
This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of potential market moves based on VSA and key zones. If you find this analysis helpful and are interested in automating your trading decisions, my personal script can help. It identifies critical zones and VSA signals, streamlining your trading process.
Feel free to reach out to me via personal message for more details on how you can get access to this powerful tool.
Happy trading!
Market Recap: Framing The Day Is A Game ChangerI have been working on two different studies on my website. It has taken me some time but, it has been worth it so far. I am able to frame the daily volatility ranges using previous VIX closes. Then once the 90 minute range closes I can frame a moving range that helps me stay on the right side of the market. Today, I called the low of the market range at 12:30 EST.
Anticipation market!Although the S&P 500 made new record highs, the concern is how it's doing it. The last three days we have found sellers at the highs not confident buyers willing to hold onto positions. With the Fed statement on Monday and increase expectation for an interest rate cut in September, the market is in an anticipation mode.
2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market closed near the open, so neutral. Bulls printed another ath but got another big rejection for 50 points. Bears need lower lows and follow through selling or we continue inside the broad bull channel. Friday’s and Today’s daily bar look bad enough for the bulls so I think bears are favored slightly to get to 5640 or lower tomorrow.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
key levels: 5500 - 5720
bull case: Bulls buying every dip and staying near or above the 1h 20ema. Despite the many rejections above 5700, bulls are in control and poke higher each day. Clean broad bull channel and until bears break below and make lower lows again, bulls are heavily favored.
Invalidation is below 5600.
bear case: Big up, big down, market went nowhere today, despite another ath. Bears desperately need lower lows below 5600, otherwise every dip is bought. First bear target are consecutive closes below the 1h 20ema and then a retest of 5640, which is Friday’s open and near the bull channel line.
Invalidation is above 5720.
short term: Neutral and fading the extremes. Selling above 5700 continues to be profitable. Not interested in buying this.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”.
trade of the day: Shorting above 5700 was good for 48 points. Was previous resistance and still is. Daily close above 5700 would change that.
ES short term bearishMy analysis shows that we might take a short trade towards last week's low on ES
