SPX Sep 16 Price Targets Using StatisticsPre Market Analysis for Sep 16'th using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy with all analysis methods.
ICT Trader using ICT Stats.
Topics:
- Yesterday's Results
- Today's Projections
MES1! trade ideas
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support.
Current flip to Bullish
Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure)
Watch these week's price action...
SP500**SP500:**
This week, the price is expected to fall after touching the engulfing formed last week.
$MES1! 4hr AnalysisWhat's up ya'll?!
Based on what I'm seeing, the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Future ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) on the 4hr is in a consolidation zone between 5,592.50 and 5,661 (68.5 ticks).
I have marked the chart with a bearish Fibonacci retracement from ATH on Jul 16th to the low on Aug 5th.
If price goes below 5,619 (mid-point of previous day ), then there is a possibility price will run back down to the 0.786 mark at 5,592.50 (26.5 ticks).
If price surpasses the heavy resistance at around the 0.9 bearish Fibonacci (5,661) then next price target is all-time highs at 5,721.25.
A lot will be based on the economic and financial news this week.
Diamond Top formation still in effectwe are in an EWT Diamon d Top formation in every indices, every stock, bitcoin , and gold have all had similar diamond tops i feel the recession is finally here, FED be damned. They always cause the problems.
all the FOMC does is screw up the market
everything has had a diamond top, prepare for the bear blizzard
This crazy rally reminds me of Custers last stand
s&p in expanding formation, likely a higher high incominghey.
s&p is creating a lower low, then as buyers surpassed the previous low, buyers proved themselves, they likely will go to the previous high and create a higher high as price 'breathes'
how high? i dont know, breakeven at previous high and attempt a 1:4
look at this chart on 5m timeframe , then divergences will make sense as confluences,
we dont care about h bear, its uptrend so we can ignore that, we like the bullish ones
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400.
Quote from last week:
comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts.
comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 5400 - 5700
bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%.
Invalidation is above 5670.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook.
short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
Possible Massive WhipSaw Twice More into EOY.Certainly, if a new high is made whatsoever, I would say we're going to the moon. But this last rally sucks. It was highly irregular, felt like day trader covering, and had no real commitment.
If you take the last two lowest points on the long term, and you create this channel on it with the high. You get this channel and I made some subfibs also. We've already double tested that trend line, but if you are shorts, that is the exact line you'd need to break to go into recession.
In my limited experience, when a second break out happens like it did in Oct 23, and you skip over some of the first small fibs to make this run on weak squeezes, you could trigger a slow moving violent dip that shows MACD (Linda's modified) getting stronger and more bullish even as price takes huge dips. I'll be watching this divergence. And I think it will take it right back to the last 23% sub fib of the last zone of this channel. I mean, right to the brink before we see the greatest covering of all time.
I expect some wild stuff on this contract change since the next contract over is trading 50-60 pts above our current one. I bet we have to drop hard into that contract change, and then we gap up but still in down trend and we enter into this next of 3 dives.
I will be doing my best to not trade the middle of these trends, because you have zero idea how price action will move. If in fact it does honor these levels, and I get a short or long at the right pivot, I'll just hold small contract size hoping to accumulate my account for the final high risk high reward finish to this thing.
Psycho Market.
SPX Weekly Recap | Price Targets Sep 16 - 20Weekly Recap video on last week's stock market price action. then we wrap up the video with our new price targets for next week (Sep 16 - 20) using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy.
Topics:
- Last week's Results
- Next week's Targets
Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade.
Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
Clean close on FridayIt was a clean close on Friday in the S&P 500. What I mean by this is a close near the high of Friday's trading which is a sign that buyers are willing to hold this position into the weekend. The expectation would be new highs on Monday but not a large move as the market positions itself for the fundamental data coming out later in the week.
ES - There's Not A Lot Of Meat On The Bone I fancy the chances of $5,375 later on next week.
Unfinished business @ the HTF volume imbalance.
Weekly Recap and Top 5 Trade Ideas ReviewA recap of this week's action, very nice rally but coming back up near ATH now. We have a highly anticipated FOMC minutes release next week along with Powell speaking. We should see some fireworks, we've already had plenty this week.
For now I'm trying to reserve judgement until we see the reaction, but I can't help but remain bearish despite the recent rally.
Shorting $ESShorting with averaging between 5640-5644. Really like the liquidity grab here on the 4 hour
ES/SPX levels and targets sept 13thThe squeeze is still going strong in ES, now up 70 points from yesterday’s 5538-43 long idea, and +200 points from Wednesday’s low. Hit the 5619target around 5-6 am—now it’s all about holding onto runners until we get a sharp flush.
As of now: 5600 and 5585 are support. As long as they hold, 5619 and 5630+ are in play. Only looking to sell if we drop below 5585.
20240913 ESThere is a consolidation. Looks nice. I would like to see SandD with raids of ss and bs => reversal after Hi news. I would like to see spike to the upside before the reversal to the downside. TGIF environment.
ES - hoping for a little pull backI am hoping for a little pull back before heading higher!! A little more push higher can take the price down...
ES Overnight Price ACtion REview 9-13-24Going over the Overnight Price Action ES looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. reflecting on yesterdays trading day and coming up with a plan for the morning session today.
Can buyers finish strongCan buyers finish strong in the S&P 500 going into the weekend? We have additional data that could support a strong close above 5660 in the S&P 500. This would be a sign of confidence as buyers would continue to move the market up and hold positions.
S&P Analysis + Short Thesis UpdateSome analysis for the S&P, most things are looking bullish obviously after the big bounce yesterday. Nothing has changed for me on the overall short thesis, but for now I don't think it's a good idea to keep trying to jump in front of a moving train. We'll see where things end up settling out after FOMC.
Text Book Setup With OHLC Statisrical Mapping!This is just gorgeous...
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+Manipulation is entry and SL below -Distribution
+Distribution as a target
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2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Strong follow through by the bulls after another nasty bear trap. On lower time frames we got some sell spikes but mostly due to bulls taking profits and not strong bears shorting. Bullish price action can’t be denied and on the daily charts we are moving closer to the shallow bear trend lines from the ath and we are mostly inside triangles. Daily charts tell the story and it’s bullish so we can’t expect a strong bear reversal tomorrow.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Triangle is still my preferred pattern for now. Tomorrow we could see 5640 but anything above is uncertain. At that level I would get out of most longs. Currently I don’t have any interest in selling, since we have seen many bear traps. Today bears could not close a 1h bar below the 20ema, so look how market behaves if we get there again tomorrow. Buy on strength and don’t get fooled into shorts on strong selling. It was strong but disappeared in an instance and bulls melted higher again.
current market cycle: t rading range and also minor bull trend inside since we are making higher lows and higher highs
key levels: 5400 -5650
bull case: Bulls bought 5550 until bears gave up. The selling around the open was strong enough to trap many bears and that’s why the move up was so violent again. Bulls are in full control until we make lower lows again. Targets above are obvious. Next one is open of the month + high of the month around 5670 and above that is the ath 5721. Last time we got above 5600, market did go sideways for 10 days and this time we could see a breakout above or below somewhat faster.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 5580 but since they could not close below the 1h for 3h, they gave up and market moved up in a perfect small pullback bull trend which held above the 1m 20ema for an hour and 35 points. So what’s next for bears? Do or die moment around 5650 to keep it a lower high. If they fail, we most likely print a new ath. Rough guess is that bears won’t try to close the week with a red bar but just keep it below 5670.
Invalidation is above 5670.
short term: Max bullishness as long as the 1h 20ema is not broken and until we hit 5650/5660. I’d close longs there on any weakness and probably won’t do anything until next week.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Only intraday scalps currently. Still think next 500 points are made to the downside and not up.
trade of the day: Buying the bear trap on the US open was as perfect of a trade as it gets.
ES/SPX Levels and Targets sept 12thYesterday saw the most aggressive short squeeze of 2024 so far. The 5438 reclaim entry i gave in plan yesterday was the long trigger, with targets at 5519 (hit), 5528 (hit), and 5560 (hit). Now, it's just about trailing stops until we see a dip.
After of now: 5560 is support. Holding that keeps 5585-93 (major) and 5605+ in play. If 5560 breaks, expect a dip to 5543-37.
