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MES1! trade ideas

2024-10-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - In my weekly post yesterday I wrote “max bullish” a couple of times and I hope you did not short this today. Bulls are in absolute control and they have no reason to stop buying every small dip. You can not be a bear on the hope that this madness will stop eventually. It can go much further than you can imagine. Strong day, strong close, can only expect higher prices until bears print consecutive big bear bars on higher time frames. My best guess is still a blow-off top this week, which can mark the top before we see a bigger correction. Today felt like we are already in it. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Break above both bull wedges. Could this be a bull trap? I highly doubt that. 6000 will very likely be hit this year. current market cycle: max bullish key levels: 5860 - 6000 bull case: Bulls are in full control and we can only expect higher prices, given the strength of this follow through buying. We have a small channel which will likely break overnight and the next bull trend line is around 5890 already and aligns nicely with the 1h 20ema. Next obvious target is 6000. Invalidation is below 5880. bear case: Nothing really. Can they prevent 6000? Doubt it. Can they get a deeper pullback before we get there? Also doubt that. Anything below 5880 would surprise me. If they get it, 5850 is their next target and bigger support. Invalidation is above 6050. short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Buy on pullbacks when bulls come around again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Globex oscillated around last week’s close and after bar 10 it could not even touch the 15m 20ema again. Could have bought anywhere and made money except 15m before US close.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
ES Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES (S&P 500 Futures) , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 5806. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Trader Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
$MES1! Demanding ain't She?Here on the CME_MINI:MES1! We are simplifying our analysis to forecast the next years action based on the current years close. Utilizing candlestick psychology, when you have two well separated thick bodied candles after a cluster has been formed; the odds are likely that we have an established Demand Imbalance. This imbalance will continue for at least one more full sized candle to the upside. In the projection on the chart I would love to say that 7000$ is the target for 2025, however market makers will like use a truncated high to bag the retail crown for some time. Always set your exits to avoid round numbers and take profits prior to any major phycological levels. While I do expect a decent pullback likely into the beginning of 2025, closing over the previous years high will be your entry to get in. You're Welcome.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by Midgar-
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Also max bullish. Bulls closed 8 points below the ath. Strong buy signal going into next week but the issue (again) is that you are buying above the bigger bull wedge and at the very high of a nested one. Waiting for a pullback to go long is the much more reasonable trade instead of buying near 5860. The wedge has room to 5900, so 6000 is a valid year end target. Bear case begins below 5750. 5800-5850 is neutral. Quote from last week: comment: Much bigger range than the previous week with wild moves the whole week. Bears sold it with spikes, followed by bulls who bought every dip. End result was 5800 again and now what? We are near the ath and can easily make a new one. The high was also high enough to count as a decent lower high and we sell off from here. Given the strong bull bar on Friday, we have to give the higher odds to the bulls to get follow through above and we will probably make a new ath. comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5750 - 5900 bull case: Bulls want 5900 and have all the arguments on their side. That still does not make buying 5859 a good buy. It’s possible that bulls break above both wedges and continue for 5900 and much higher, is it likely though? I doubt it. What, no more text? We have two perfectly fitting patterns and are trading at the very highs. I have given precise invalidation prices. Don’t think more words will make this better. Just as more trades probably won’t make you more money. Quality over quantity. Invalidation is below 5750. bear case: Bears have nothing until they close below 5750. We are at the highs but so what? 5 Consecutive weekly bull bars say it all. Don’t look for shorts when bears do not make money other than scalping on time frames below 15m. When these two wedges break below, we will see a decent correction again and it’s possible over the next weeks but as of right now, bears are in pain and nothing else. Invalidation is above 5910. outlook last week: short term: Neutral 5750 - 5850, big range but we are in the middle of that given range and both sides have reasonable arguments. If bulls get follow through above 5800, long scalps are a decent trade for 5830 or a bit higher. Right now I would not trade it. → Last Sunday we traded 5800 and now we are at 5859. Neutral range but I wrote above 5800 a long is good for 30 points or more. Good outlook. short term : Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update : None
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.13 - 10.18Last Week : Interesting week we had as many different things happened and it was fun to watch. Last week Globex opened and made a return back into distribution balance, RTH flushed the inventory back into VAL but we again were able to hold VAL into the close and Tuesday Globex rotated back inside balance which brought buying and gave us another failed attempt out of balance top but market was able to hold over the 80s and supply which brought in more buying and triggered a short covering stop run into next Value which held and gave some continuation to close the week. This Week : Friday market attempted a push for VAH into 5840 - 80s Intraday range. We were able to hold around the mean of the of the range into the close but we can see it ended with a Poor high and Weakness into into 50s. IF we are to accept in this new range then we would see price holding over 840s, over Value if that will be the case then we could continue trading in this range over VAL and start building up for an attempt at VAH test. BUT we have to be careful as mentioned last week and week before that previous distribution range was a very interesting area and with current PA we might not be fully done with it, of course we will have to see what the market will actually do. Which means if we don't accept inside/over Value then this push could find its way back under 40s into VAL, IF we will be holding under 30s with Supply above that could trigger more weakness to get us back towards the Edge and eventually if we will have the supply find a way back into Previous Balance. Something to note this week is Volume has been low, we don't have any market moving news until Thursday so need to be careful for more a slow leak back in instead of a quick return if it is to happen, holding over 830s would or 860s would change the weakness.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Combined US Equities Breakout late OctoberVery quickly, the expected breakdown did not happen, and this week saw the an across the board bullish breakout. Noted the breakout is long in the teeth (old and late) and while bullish, it is not strong nor convincingly sustainable. Reminiscent of this expectation is the MACD and VolDiv looking lackluster. Expected top marked, and after 21 Oct needs a review... that would be the projected resistance for a stronger pullback. Bullish for now and the week ahead. Enjoy, make hay while the sun shines!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
I give up with request.quandl()Recently Tradingview gave us limited options stuff but unfortunately their API makes this very difficult, technically speaking, there should theoretically be a way to get options data from request.quandlor get local real estate data for say, a REIT and then do fun calculations but that data lacks documentation or doesn't work. //@version=5 indicator("Combined Macro & Financial Indicator", overlay=false) // Define constants for index values ZILLOW_PRICE_INDEX = 1 US_GDP_INDEX = 1 SOYBEAN_FORECAST_INDEX = 1 PRODUCER_LONGS_INDEX = 8 PRODUCER_SHORTS_INDEX = 9 SWAP_LONGS_INDEX = 10 SWAP_SHORTS_INDEX = 11 INFLATION_INDEX = 1 ES1_CLOSE_INDEX = 4 ES1_OPTIONS_INDEX = 1 // Placeholder index for options data // Zillow Real Estate Data: Median Listing Price // Source: Zillow database on Nasdaq Data Link zillow_price = request.quandl("ZILLOW/M00039_MRP", index=ZILLOW_PRICE_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // World Bank Data: US GDP // Source: World Bank database on Nasdaq Data Link world_bank_gdp = request.quandl("WWDI/USA_NY_GDP_MKTP_CN", index=US_GDP_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // WASDE: Soybean Forecast // Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Nasdaq Data Link wasde_soybean = request.quandl("WASDE/SOYBEAN", index=SOYBEAN_FORECAST_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // CFTC: Net Positions (e.g., Gold Futures) // Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reports on Nasdaq Data Link producer_merchant_processor_user_longs = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=PRODUCER_LONGS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) producer_merchant_processor_user_shorts = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=PRODUCER_SHORTS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) swap_dealer_longs = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=SWAP_LONGS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) swap_dealer_shorts = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=SWAP_SHORTS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // IMF: US Inflation Data // Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) data on Nasdaq Data Link imf_inflation = request.quandl("ODA/USA_PCPIPCH", index=INFLATION_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // ES1! Data: S&P 500 E-mini Futures Close Price // Source: S&P 500 E-mini Futures on TradingView (ES1!) es1_close = request.security("ES1!", "D", close) // ES1! Options Data: Placeholder for S&P 500 E-mini Futures options data // Source: Options data on Nasdaq Data Link (if available) es1_options = request.quandl("CBOE/ES_OPTIONS", index=ES1_OPTIONS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // Replace "CBOE/ES_OPTIONS" with correct dataset code if available // Create a table to display the data table_id = table.new(position.top_right, 10, 2, border_width=1) // Set table headers header_bg_color = color.blue header_text_color = color.white table.cell(table_id, 0, 0, "Indicator", text_color=header_text_color, bgcolor=header_bg_color) table.cell(table_id, 0, 1, "Value", text_color=header_text_color, bgcolor=header_bg_color) // Set table rows default_text_color = color.black table.cell(table_id, 1, 0, "Zillow Median Listing Price", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 1, 1, na(zillow_price) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(zillow_price), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 2, 0, "World Bank US GDP", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 2, 1, na(world_bank_gdp) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(world_bank_gdp), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 3, 0, "WASDE Soybean Forecast", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 3, 1, na(wasde_soybean) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(wasde_soybean), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 4, 0, "Producer Merchant Longs", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 4, 1, na(producer_merchant_processor_user_longs) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(producer_merchant_processor_user_longs), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 5, 0, "Producer Merchant Shorts", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 5, 1, na(producer_merchant_processor_user_shorts) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(producer_merchant_processor_user_shorts), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 6, 0, "Swap Dealer Longs", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 6, 1, na(swap_dealer_longs) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(swap_dealer_longs), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 7, 0, "Swap Dealer Shorts", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 7, 1, na(swap_dealer_shorts) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(swap_dealer_shorts), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 8, 0, "S&P 500 E-mini Futures Close Price", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 8, 1, na(es1_close) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(es1_close), text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 9, 0, "S&P 500 E-mini Futures Options Data", text_color=default_text_color) table.cell(table_id, 9, 1, na(es1_options) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(es1_options), text_color=default_text_color) // Set the y-axis scale and style for better readability hline(0, "Zero Line", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted) // Background color for the chart bgcolor(color.new(color.gray, 90)) // Background color to help distinguish the indicator plots // Possible Sources and Explanation of Codes // Zillow: Provides real estate data (e.g., median listing prices) using code "ZILLOW/M00039_MRP" // World Bank: Uses "WWDI/USA_NY_GDP_MKTP_CN" to get the US GDP // WASDE: Uses "WASDE/SOYBEAN" to get the forecast data for soybeans // CFTC: Uses "CFTC/088691_F_ALL" for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports (e.g., Gold Futures) // IMF: Uses "ODA/USA_PCPIPCH" to get US inflation data // ES1!: Uses "ES1!" for the S&P 500 E-mini Futures close price // Options Data: Placeholder code "CBOE/ES_OPTIONS" for options data, replace with actual dataset if available // Notes on NaN Values // If values are returned as NaN, this could indicate that the data is either not available or the dataset has updated, requiring a different code or index. // Consider checking the data availability on the Nasdaq Data Link website to verify the dataset codes and indices. // Max Number of Requests // Pine Script limits external requests like `request.quandl()` to avoid overwhelming servers. Consider limiting the number of requests or combining data where possible to optimize the use of requests.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by livingdracula
RESEND: ES trading plan for CPI Day Oct 10thSupports: • Major: 5822-24, 5805, 5795, 5747-51, 5730, 5711, 5703, 5691, 5675, 5665, 5646 • Minor: 5828, 5815, 5810, 5790, 5780, 5773, 5764, 5757, 5740, 5725, 5715, 5686, 5682, 5672, 5657 What I’m Watching: •Tomorrow is CPI day. We’ve seen a massive rally from Thursday’s lows, breaking out of a two-week bull flag. However, as I’ve said, this isn’t the ideal time to trade. • Post-rally setups are scarce. Long entries are risky because we’ve already had 15+ tests/failed breakdowns of support, and now we’ve moved significantly higher. If you didn’t enter early, it’s not a great time to force trades. Shorts are also risky as we’re still in a bull market and at all-time highs (ATHs). • To make matters more complicated, tomorrow is CPI day, which is historically volatile, trappy, and unpredictable. For great traders, capital preservation is always key, so many avoid trading right after CPI releases. My focus tomorrow is protecting profits, and any trade will risk only 20% of my recent gains. • CPI days often see massive moves (70+ points either way), so keep expectations flexible. The primary task for buyers will be to defend today’s bull flag breakout at 5795. If we get a CPI flush, buyers will want to defend 5795 or reclaim it quickly. Be cautious, especially below 5795. Many levels below have been heavily tested, so if 5795 breaks, we could see a rapid move lower. • If we test 5795 and reclaim 5805, or if we flush 5790 and recover 5795, those could present long entries, especially if accompanied by volume confirmation. Be patient with entries tomorrow, and remember that breakdowns are often traps. Resistances: • Major: 5847, 5862, 5881, 5890, 5897, 5923, 5950-55, 5970 • Minor: 5840, 5852, 5855, 5869, 5876, 5904, 5908, 5917, 5932, 5936, 5941, 5965 • As a rule, I don’t counter-trend short ES in a bull market. I haven’t taken a short loss in nearly 2 years because I don’t fight ES in uptrends. However, for those interested in counter-trend shorting, 5881 and 5897 are levels where you might find some resistance. Buyer’s Case for Tomorrow: • Straightforward: We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and tomorrow buyers will need to defend it. If CPI causes a flush, we don’t want to see any significant move below 5795, or if it does break, buyers need to reclaim it quickly. As long as this zone holds, we remain in an active bull flag breakout, and the target becomes 5862, 5881, and 5890-97. Clearing that range opens the path to 5950-55 and potentially 6000. • I wouldn’t recommend adding longs after a 100+ point rally on a CPI day, but in a normal scenario, flagging below today’s highs or above 5822 would be considered bullish. Watch for volume to confirm these entries if so. Seller’s Case for Tomorrow: • Sellers’ case begins with a failure of 5795. After such a significant rally, a correction wouldn’t necessarily be bearish in the big picture, just a healthy pullback. However, for short-term trades, losing 5795 is critical. • Breakdown trades require a specific setup. I need to see a test or a failed breakdown first, which helps remove demand from the level. Once this happens, I’ll look to enter slightly below the structure. For example, a test of 5795 or 5805, followed by a failed breakdown, would be the signal to short, likely triggering around 5792. On CPI days, though, this pattern might not materialize and the market could simply flush without providing the structure. Summary for Tomorrow: • It’s been a great run, so I’m shifting to profit protection until CPI passes. Anything can happen tomorrow, but I lean toward following the trend and trading based on what’s in front of me. We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and as long as that holds, targets include 5863, 5881, and 5890-97. If 5795 fails, it means today’s breakout has failed, and sellers could take control. Follow for updates every morning at 8:15 Eastern on TradingView
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES Trading Plan for CPI Day Oct 11thSupports: • Major: 5822-24, 5805, 5795, 5747-51, 5730, 5711, 5703, 5691, 5675, 5665, 5646 • Minor: 5828, 5815, 5810, 5790, 5780, 5773, 5764, 5757, 5740, 5725, 5715, 5686, 5682, 5672, 5657 What I’m Watching: •Tomorrow is CPI day. We’ve seen a massive rally from Thursday’s lows, breaking out of a two-week bull flag. However, as I’ve said, this isn’t the ideal time to trade. • Post-rally setups are scarce. Long entries are risky because we’ve already had 15+ tests/failed breakdowns of support, and now we’ve moved significantly higher. If you didn’t enter early, it’s not a great time to force trades. Shorts are also risky as we’re still in a bull market and at all-time highs (ATHs). • To make matters more complicated, tomorrow is CPI day, which is historically volatile, trappy, and unpredictable. For great traders, capital preservation is always key, so many avoid trading right after CPI releases. My focus tomorrow is protecting profits, and any trade will risk only 20% of my recent gains. • CPI days often see massive moves (70+ points either way), so keep expectations flexible. The primary task for buyers will be to defend today’s bull flag breakout at 5795. If we get a CPI flush, buyers will want to defend 5795 or reclaim it quickly. Be cautious, especially below 5795. Many levels below have been heavily tested, so if 5795 breaks, we could see a rapid move lower. • If we test 5795 and reclaim 5805, or if we flush 5790 and recover 5795, those could present long entries, especially if accompanied by volume confirmation. Be patient with entries tomorrow, and remember that breakdowns are often traps. Resistances: • Major: 5847, 5862, 5881, 5890, 5897, 5923, 5950-55, 5970 • Minor: 5840, 5852, 5855, 5869, 5876, 5904, 5908, 5917, 5932, 5936, 5941, 5965 • As a rule, I don’t counter-trend short ES in a bull market. I haven’t taken a short loss in nearly 2 years because I don’t fight ES in uptrends. However, for those interested in counter-trend shorting, 5881 and 5897 are levels where you might find some resistance. Buyer’s Case for Tomorrow: • Straightforward: We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and tomorrow buyers will need to defend it. If CPI causes a flush, we don’t want to see any significant move below 5795, or if it does break, buyers need to reclaim it quickly. As long as this zone holds, we remain in an active bull flag breakout, and the target becomes 5862, 5881, and 5890-97. Clearing that range opens the path to 5950-55 and potentially 6000. • I wouldn’t recommend adding longs after a 100+ point rally on a CPI day, but in a normal scenario, flagging below today’s highs or above 5822 would be considered bullish. Watch for volume to confirm these entries if so. Seller’s Case for Tomorrow: • Sellers’ case begins with a failure of 5795. After such a significant rally, a correction wouldn’t necessarily be bearish in the big picture, just a healthy pullback. However, for short-term trades, losing 5795 is critical. • Breakdown trades require a specific setup. I need to see a test or a failed breakdown first, which helps remove demand from the level. Once this happens, I’ll look to enter slightly below the structure. For example, a test of 5795 or 5805, followed by a failed breakdown, would be the signal to short, likely triggering around 5792. On CPI days, though, this pattern might not materialize and the market could simply flush without providing the structure. Summary for Tomorrow: • It’s been a great run, so I’m shifting to profit protection until CPI passes. Anything can happen tomorrow, but I lean toward following the trend and trading based on what’s in front of me. We’ve broken out of a bull flag at 5795, and as long as that holds, targets include 5863, 5881, and 5890-97. If 5795 fails, it means today’s breakout has failed, and sellers could take control. Follow for updates every morning at 8:15 Eastern on TradingView
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg