A quiet day is expected.A quiet day in the S&P 500 for Tuesday, December 24 is expected. A lack of fundamentals and a shortened trading session creates the expectation of a quiet session.
MESM2025 trade ideas
ES/SPX Morning Update Dec 27thThis week has been about one level in ES: 6097-6100. It’s been my target since last Friday and remains a major resistance. Bulls control above it, while bears dominate below, aligned with the FOMC resistance. Yesterday, we hit the level and sold off.
As of now:
• 6060-6066 = support.
• Bulls must reclaim 6078 to rally to 6087, then 6097-6100.
• 6060 fails, and we dip to 6043-46.
Looking for a quiet day on FridayThe expectation for the S&P 500 on Friday is a quiet day as we go into the weekend.
es1! retests 5kes1! appears poised for a larger move down, based on the smaller timeframe count .
this leads me to believe that es1! has entered a larger fourth wave. historically, these waves take an average of 2 months to play out and typically result in a 12% decrease from the high before completing.
wave 4's often retrace back into the territory of the prior degree's wave 4, and i expect this one to follow suit.
pay attention to the green trendline i've drawn on the chart,,, it serves as a solid guide for where i anticipate es1! to find a bottom. dipping below the trendline is acceptable, provided we don't see any weekly candle closes beneath it. even if a weekly candle does close below, a strong recovery the following week, such as a gap-up scenario , could invalidate the breakdown.
there’s not much else to add here, as the chart is fairly straightforward. keep an eye on the trendline and monitor weekly closes for confirmation.
💸
2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. We stayed below Friday’s high but bulls had a really bullish close. Until they get a strong move above 6050, I lean neutral. Above 6050 there is no more resistance until 6100. Bears something below 5965 but for now they could be very happy with any daily close below 6000.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5950 - 6050
bull case: Very strong close by the bulls. Year end rally is on if they get follow through above 6050 tomorrow. A measured move up from Friday’s rally would bring us 6230+. For now we have a clear bull wedge which leads perfectly to 6100 tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears did ok until the breakout above 6030. Now they have a do or die moment again to keep the market below 6050 or they need to cover because market could go all the way up to 6200 or higher.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Neutral. Very bullish close but bulls need follow through above 6050 tomorrow. If they get it, we probably won’t stop until 6100 or higher. Market is in balance around 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling 6030 before EU open and buying 5985 because of the head & shoulders bottom (head was the low 5965) after US open on the 5m tf.
Buyers momentum continues higher.In the S&P 500 daily chart the buying momentum over the last few days continue moving the market higher. This momentum is expected to continue on Thursday with 60150 the next objective for this market.
Bullish Rally, followed by a seloff in the afternoonOn the blue C wave targets on the lower right.
This is meant to teach EWT elliot wave theory, to give not give trading advice. There is a corresponding Video Idea that goes into more detail. I will update the idea during the day tomorrow.
I''m planning on buying with both hands if BITX /BITC go down on a 28" C wave. any rally will be over by the 1 AM Lunchers Idea I shared with the TV community, the idea that the pit Tradeers go out on 3 martin i lunchs, and ater they return they make a move to take reatil money. this is a tiny part of my "Bilderberg Theory" which I have been trading along with Paper, buying at S6 anbd selling at R6, since 2003 with I ;earne from Giget Sune, who i tradee futures with, and David Elliot the number oner stock chart trainer, awarded by the U.S stock Traders Assocition. 2003-2005 >. i rrally appreciate being given the opportunity to share my knowledge.
www.tradingview.com
BITCUSD / BITX has exactly the same chart.
ES Weekly Trading Plan: Balancing Market Strategy 12/29 🚨Trading Plan: Balancing Market Strategy with Failure Scenarios 🚨
Market Context
The market is currently in a balancing phase, with defined extremes of the balance zone at 6164 (high) and 5898 (low). Our approach will focus on trading around the midpoint and targeting key levels, while remaining aware of potential failure scenarios where the market tests beyond the extremes but fails to sustain momentum.
Key Levels
Balance Zone High: 6164
Balance Zone Low: 5898
Midpoint (Pivot): 6031
🎯 Upside Targets:
6072
6108
6144
📉 Downside Targets:
5999
5964
5928
🧑💼 Strategy Overview
Objective:
Trade within the balancing market, utilizing the midpoint as a pivot for directional bias, while also preparing for failure scenarios at the balance zone extremes.
Risk Management:
Place stops just outside the balance zone extremes to avoid being caught in a breakout trap.
Execution Plan:
Follow a systematic entry and exit plan based on price action near key levels, with heightened focus on failure scenarios at the extremes.
Trade Execution Plan
Pivot Zone: 6031
If price holds above 6031:
Look for long opportunities targeting upside levels.
If price breaks and holds below 6031:
Look for short opportunities targeting downside levels.
Upside Trade Setup:
Entry:
Enter long positions near 6031 on confirmation of support (e.g., strong buying momentum, bullish candlestick patterns).
Targets:
6072 → 6108 → 6144 →
Stop Loss:
Place stops just below 5999 to protect capital.
Downside Trade Setup:
Entry:
Enter short positions near 6031 on confirmation of resistance (e.g., strong selling momentum, bearish candlestick patterns).
Targets:
5999 → 5964 → 5928 →
Stop Loss:
Place stops just above 6072 to protect capital.
⚡ Failure Scenarios
Looking Above 6164 and Failing:
Scenario:
The market breaches 6164, signaling potential breakout buyers, but quickly reverses and re-enters the balance zone.
Trade Opportunity:
Short the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candlesticks, increasing sell volume).
Targets:
6144 → 6108 → 6072 → Midpoint (6031).
Stop Loss:
Place stops just above 6164 to avoid prolonged breakout risk.
Looking Below 5898 and Failing:
Scenario:
The market breaches 5898, signaling potential breakout sellers, but quickly reverses and re-enters the balance zone.
Trade Opportunity:
Long the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candlesticks, increasing buy volume).
Targets:
5928 → 5964 → 5999 → Midpoint (6031).
Stop Loss:
Place stops just below 5898 to avoid prolonged breakout risk.
Fake Breakout from Midpoint (6031):
Scenario:
The market shows a directional breakout from 6031 but fails to sustain momentum, reversing back into balance.
Trade Opportunity:
Trade in the direction of the failed breakout, targeting the opposite side of the balance zone.
Stop Loss:
Place stops just outside the failed breakout level.
💡 Risk Management
Position Sizing:
Risk no more than 1-2% of account balance per trade. Use tight stops to minimize loss in failure scenarios.
Break-Even Adjustments:
Move stops to break-even once the first target is hit.
📈 Trade Monitoring
Order Flow Analysis:
Continuously monitor volume and order flow near extremes and the midpoint for signs of breakout or failure.
Market Context Update:
Adapt the plan if the market establishes a new range or breaks out of balance.
💰 Exit Plan
Take profits incrementally at each target.
Exit immediately if the market signals sustained breakout momentum beyond the balance zone extremes.
🔔 Stay disciplined and adapt to the price action!
#BalanceZone #MarketStrategy #RiskManagement #SPX
OverdoneThe down movement on Friday in the S&P 500 implies a market that is overdone to the downside. This means that the typical reaction would be an inside day on Monday as this market catches its breath.
S&P500: Strong SurgeOn Friday, a strong surge propelled the S&P500 upward, so the index is beginning the new week at distinctly higher levels. Still, in our primary scenario, we anticipate a significant sell-off during the turquoise wave 2, which should drive the S&P down into our turquoise Target Zone between 5616 and 5368 points. In this range, the turquoise impulsive wave 3 should start and deliver a robust upward movement beyond the resistance at 6169 points. However, there is a 36% chance that the index will reverse upward prematurely and surpass the resistance at 6169 points earlier during an alternative blue five-wave structure.
Combined US Equities - not nice end, not expecting a great startQuick analysis of the Combimed US Equities daily chart...
A significant rebound last week put the closing back into the decision box. Thing is, it went out the other end, as expected it would, BUT ended with a doji (indecision candlestick) and came back into the box... which suggest an exit to thru the lower end. This is abou to happen over the last days of the 2024.
And IF it exceeds the last low, then it is a tell all that 2025 is not going to be bullishly exciting.
In any case, a good retracement is overdue and likely comes in 1Q2025
Technicals here show weakening MACD and a decelerating rate of VolDiv.
Let's see how bullisht the first day of 2025 and the first week of 2025 can be... not terribly optimistic IMHO.
In any case... HAPPY NEW YEAR 2025 everyone!
Stay safe and stay happy!
SPX: Change In Sentiment Delivering Slight Falls..FED Meeting yesterday dampened the prospect of faster easing from the FED.
Previously optimism of this happening caused significant rallies to ATH's.
Now slight waning in this. Re-shorts applicable but only lightly as overall economic health seems generally reasonable.
The Next Potential S&P 500 Support ZoneVolume Profile puts market volume on a vertical axis. This allow you to discover support/resistance areas. The widest part of the profile is called Point of Control (POC). This is the level of strongest potential support/resistance.
POC is at 5,790.00 which is close to a Fibonacci .382 retracement of the 08/05/24 to 12/17/24 rally.
These two level imply support in the 5,805 to 5740 range.
This level could be reached next week.
ES Paths Moving ForwardWe finally got some volatility last week and a big short squeeze. Was a pretty good week to trade, but I'm not expecting much this week.
It's a short week and I plan to take most of it off, but we'll see if anything happens worth noting. Here's some paths I'd expect for ES in the short term. So far ES failed after about a 61.8% retracement. Fairly big range from 5,800 to 6,100 and we're almost right in the middle so not the best place to be opening new positions IMO.
Might be interested in puts at 6,100 or calls if it reclaims. My best guess is that we'll hit 5,800 soon until the Santa rally starts after Christmas. That would fit with charts and seasonality but after that squeeze I'm not sure it goes back down anytime soon. Overall looking to let things shake out after FOMC and come back at it after the new year.
Es the return of bull till when?If you follows my ideas market crash was predicted long time before. Now i think bulls are in control but bears are not out. I am expecting an end of year rally but till what point. i think a 80-100 point ripper is yet to come. after which we we have to see how market does depend on trump new policies.
Inside day expected on MondayOn Monday it is expected for that day's session to trade within the Fridays range.
ES: Where I see Mrs. Market is headingEnd of this year or early next year might be in for some kind of a shocker. If the current ending diagonal is true, then ES should not see 6300 at this point. Either the Fed or all this tariff talk may tank the market in the coming weeks. If we say the rules of alternation in play, then the wave 4 should be steep and quick. Wave 2 took 10 months and was choppy. Wave 4 should take about half that time and should get into wave 1 territory at 4788. That would put the market in the bear market territory and most pundits should call for the lost decade. But I see one more high to end the 100 year cycle sometime around 2026.
S&P 500 Comes Back From Extreme "Extreme"In the S&P 500, we observe a very similar scenario to the Nasdaq (see link to the NQ chart).
It’s worth noting that we’ve seen this situation a few times before: the price traded outside the orange fork, moved back into the fork, but then left behind a "Hagopian" and shot back above it.
This is irrational market behavior caused by artificial buying pressure (Gamma Squeeze).
Now, we see the market bouncing off the 1/4 line between the warning line and the U-MLH of the white fork. And yet again, we’re trading within the orange fork.
What now?
Back up again or is it really heading down this time?
Read my lips: "I - Don’t - Know." §8-)
Buuuut, the projection and the extent of the over extension lead me to believe that this time, it’s going to crash!
Like in the NQ, my stance here is **short** for the coming weeks, and possibly even months.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - ES Bull FlagI'm beginning to get more bearish for the short term but for now ES continues to hold support around 6,113, which was a previous ATH from the post election rally. It's bullish until it breaks. My best guess is that it will break and will potentially provide a good short opportunity for a move down to demand and a previous swing low near 5,950. Next downside target from there would be 5,800.
If it holds I'd expect a move back up to the top end of the range and would be looking for longs on a break and retest or any good dips. This is an interesting spot and seems like a good spot to long, but it could just as easily be a quick flush. It's probably best to wait and see what happens after FOMC before putting on too much risk. There will be a chance to get on board after it chooses a direction. IV is rising, best to wait for it to come down.
Are sellers in control?As we see further weakness in the S&P 500, does it indicate that sellers are in control? The current price structure implies that selling is continuing to come into the market including the opening of the Asia time zone. A parameter for us to pay attention to is how the sellers finish going into the weekend. We are approaching levels that we found buyers before. So, be cautious on the short side.
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help.
current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be.
key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200
bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section.
Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again.
bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range.
Invalidation is above 6300.
short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now.
medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
A Sprint to the downside!Based on Fed comments the S&P 500 on the daily chart sprinted to the downside creating volatility that has not been seen since 2001. The expectation would be for the market to move lower but not a dramatic move as the market catches its breath.
