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Micro AUD/USD Futures

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M6A1! trade ideas

AUDUSD: Strong downtrend active, but for how much longer?After analyzing the vixfix spikes and 75% retracement levels, and their effects on price when retesting said levels, and contrasting these to the time at mode signals on this chart I concluded that the downtrend in the Australian dollar might be short lived, althought potentially very steep. I projected two targets on chart, as well as the different potential support levels, derived from range expansion bars, as well as vix fix spike retracements, and a linear regression of the current weekly trend. It's clear to me that for now the opportunities are to go short on retracements until the downtrend time expires, or we reach the range target at least. The dollar rally, if tied to the S&P500 and the US treasury bonds rally might be short lived based on my analysis on the subject, but don't be quick to discard this trend right here. I anticipate an accelerated decline in this pair, so I'll continue to look for short opportunities while my time at mode downtrend signal is valid. Multiple time at mode and Elliott Wave signals point to a strong rally in the S&P, with positive correlation in TLT, until it peaks. I keep getting time at mode uptrend expirations by the end of August, and if the expanding terminal wedge is confirmed, the start of the US equities bear market might match with said dates. Will update this thread with audusd opportunities from now on.
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by IvanLabrie
8
AUDUSD: Extremely oversold, rallying back to the mode?Analysis on chart, we had a bearish trend signal that has been consumed, price hit the target and is starting to reverse. We can attemp buying above the 0.7061 mark if trading futures, or 0.70624 if trading spot forex, with the stop loss at 0.6905 and 0.69087 respectively. Rgmov in the spot chart looks really good, forming new highs, sharply, might be an emerging uptrend. After we're in, we can proceed to scale in on retracements, and to trail the stop up if the trade works. Good luck! Ivan.
ALong
by IvanLabrie
9
E-Mini Forex Synopsis in $EUR $JPY $GBP $AUD | #forex $DXY $USDLooking at the majors in e-mini Forex, here is a quick synopsis of potential price action - Black levels are model-based R/S level projection; Colors are TG-Hi/Lo in red and TG-Hix/Lox in purple. $EUR vs. $USD: Expected to lose ground against USD. A hard structure stands at 1.1538 to invalidate this bearish outlook. In opposite, a softer ground at 1.1267 would open floor to bearish targets if breached, defined as: 1 - 1.1026 - 17 FEB 2015 and 2 - 1.0797 - 17 FEB 2015 $GBP vs. $USD: Background geometry raises the expectation of a decline. Using my empirical rule, this WW is likely to seek support at the corresponding level of Point-4 before a rallying could materialize. Point-3 offers a wide or loose layer of bullish resistance whereas Point-1 projects into a much tested level of bullish entrenchment. This alone should offer assurance against a possible interim adverse excursion. $JPY vs. $USD: A soft floor stands at 0.8370 against a potential resistance at 0.8450. Predictive/forecasting model is currently favoring a decline down to 0.8284, representing a solid bottom from which a rallying into higher highs could ensue. $AUD vs. $USD Predictive/forecasting model remains bullish here. Still, a cautionary level comes at 0.7641 to invalidate any enduring bullish outlook. At its antipodal position, a significant resistance level at 0.7865 should open the roof to loftier levels if and once transgressed. In the most proximate position, 0.7912 could offer a temporary relief to bulls, but it would not likely thwart the expected advanced to the predictive/forecasting model targets, which are defined as: 1 - 0.8024 - 17 FEB 2015 and 2 - 0.8183 - 17 FEB 2015 OVERALL: These e-mini Forex pairs offer directional clues and targets that are defined based on a pure technical basis. The underlying geo-political development could impose their own interdictions, as much as their own implied intentions further verified within these charts as they develop. Due the due, refer to reliable sources in inter-market analysis and geopolitical development if you need a broader, more mixed set of data outside of a pure technical statement. Stay tuned, as I will also post these chart in their own thread - See their links below. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor ----- .
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by 4xForecaster
6
Bottom picking the AUDNZD crossA lot of traders have taken interest in the AUDNZD cross since 2014 as prices have reached a level around 1.04/05 that's held firm since 1979. While we may see another bounce off 1.035 in the coming days, recent price action suggests a risk of diving further towards multi-year lows before a true bottom can take shape. Looking at a monthly chart over the past 16 years, I've noticed a trendline that comes in at around the 1.005 level. I'd suspect that if prices fall further, we'll see some kind of initial reaction to the upside when the Aussie dollar nears parity with the Kiwi dollar. Be mindful that the end of the bearish cycle may be close, but it seems to me too soon to call.
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by ABRAK75
1