ES Approching weekly treendlineES Apporching long-term trend line, BELOW 100 EMA, and already blew through threw daily trendline and could hit the next ema and trendline support on the weekly.
ES1! trade ideas
ES Price ACtion Review 8-7-24Going over the RTH ES price action. reflecting on how we could have played it better and which signals were the ones to trade. looking forward to the Overnight session and how we want to position ourselves.
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150.
Invalidation is below 5090.
bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above.
Invalidation is above 5280.
short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
1/3AWR+ to 1/3ADR- simple 1:4RR !1/3AWR+ was like a resistance and from this level I targeted 1/3ADR- simple bread & butter setup. Just checkout my profile! Every day there is a setup
ES soybean oil8 7 24 Here I made some comparisons between the es and soybean oil. I made my point in the video so there's no need to spend a lot of time on this introduction. I believe the biggest problem Traders have aside from not having enough capital, is that the biggest problem they have is the way they think and their inability to recognize it and make meaningful changes. and because of this inability to change they end up trading to a personal psychology filled with remorse and disappointment and anger and hopelessness...... and they don't know how to change. as I write this introduction it occurs to me that this is not so much different from my efforts over the past year or so to lose weight, to stop eating sugar and most carbohydrates even though it would be good for me. and I still eat sugar and carbohydrates and I have lost weight....... but it reminds me That most of us have our demons and that if we want to improve our lives we have to spend time and acknowledge what the demons are and what we need to do to change. I've never made a business of teaching people about trading for me to make money. but there have been a few people that I've tried to help because they didn't know how to trade or they didn't make money when they trade and I would tell them that they need to study the market and look for Clues and then test their Insight without risking money because the risk of financial loss sabotages the ability of most people to learn and learning takes time and you have to draw the lines if you know what they are on the chart before you start trading.whatever your internal dialogue is like.... I will speak for myself so I don't offend anyone.... I don't understand how I could trade with fear or remorse or anger...or a sense that I had some control....not to change the market but to take a good trade with a small stop and a reasonable reward and that I could relate it to the way other buyers and sellers including the smart money and the retail money.... and do this with a stop that isn't going to make me angry or fearful because I've tested it and have experienced from the past I believe most people start trading to make money. what they really should do in my opinion if they want to trade.... is to learn how to think before they trade.
SPX500 Sentiment Pause - Will Risk Off Return?It is very helpful as a trader to split Market scenarios into two categories; risk on, and risk off.
Risk on environments are times when risk is ON for traders. They want to invest, and take risks. The SPX, for example, is one of these assets as there are some stocks which have higher inherent risk based on their history.
Risk off environments are when we see fear flood in and risk is OFF. Investments that require high risk are taken away and the money is plugged into safe haven assets, like JPY/CHF or cash / fixed income assets.
We have just seen the two be played out in the same couple of weeks. This has stalled on a few words out the fed calming the seas.
However, nothing can stop one bad print coming it and it trashing Markets, nor can the BOJ easily stop their situation with the yen and unwindining.
I would not be surprised if markets turn over again, so be careful on any sizes and entries.
ES Levels & Targets Aug 7thThe top target yesterday for ES was 5238-42. We hit it to the tick, then flushed 100 points. Overnight buyers retested it. 5338-42 backtested Sundays sell, and reclaiming it is very bullish
As of now: currently building a base . 5313, 5298=supports. Staying above keeps 5342 again, 5365+ in play. 5298 fails, dip 5274 once again.
OverNight ES Price Action Review 8-7-24Going over the Overnight session looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. how we want to position for the day.
Waiting for clarity of directionThe structure from the S&P 500 on Tuesday provided that rest day and implies a market waiting for clarity of direction. It needs an excuse to make a move. I also think it's recognizing it overreacted to the possibility of a recession.
ES Price Action REview 8-6-24Going over the ES price action RTH looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. every day there is 5-6 moves the market gives us and its our job to find those and then take ACTION, use our knowledge to take action. knowledge is not for philosophy. talk way less, listen way more. that is the way.
AMP Futures - Order ticket - TradingView MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to execute trades from the order ticket using TradingView mobile app.
ES Bear FlagES nearly filled the gap today from Sunday evening, but rejected before it did. That was also another test of 5300 that briefly overshot before erasing the entire move. This is the second time in the past week where ES and NQ have rallied substantially and then reversed the entire move in 24 hours. The volatility I have been warning about is here and this is the new normal until VX cools off, if it does anytime soon. I'm not sure if it will, but for now I see this action as extremely concerning for bulls.
ES did have a very nice inverse H&S that led to today's rally, but it quickly stalled and failed after it broke 5300. We saw some large orders coming in up there around 5310 and 5300, which I think is significant enough to note. ES has been forming this clean bear flag since opening Sunday night and today it rejected off the top end and came all the way back to the bottom end and closed nearly right on the line. This is critical if bulls can not save it here, ES and NQ are likely to break below the April lows this week if bulls do not step in.
That would just makes things a whole lot worse. As I've said, this is just the beginning. Price will not go straight down, we'll have rallies and short squeezes. However, there is a high probably of continued downside for at least 2-3 months in my opinion. If we break April lows, the next major target is 2023 lows, which seems very far away for most. Price can get there faster than anyone can imagine, be careful out there.
ES1! Monthly ButterflyLooks like a bearish butterfly is complete on ES,
Typical targets are usually between the A-C points or possibly extending down to around 2800 or so which would be a pretty large correction
Medium term fib cluster levels shown for possible short term bounce
If it really starts to fall and in all honesty I think looking at some of the FANG stocks that have such a large weighting on the indices and the JPY carry trades unwinding I think a deeper retracement is likely as there is a general sense of de-risking...
No trade for me but pretty clear example
Morning Session REview ES 8-6-24Going over the morning session. looking back at the clues the market left for us. coming up with a plan for rest of the RTH session into the Close.
Es Levels & targets Aug 6thAfter sellers gave us an incredible sell on Monday, yesterday saw the 1st short squeeze with 5191 reclaim triggering longs. In the plan, i wrote I was looking for 5252, 5274, 5300, then 5338.. we clipped 5300 then dipped from there
As of now: 5250-52, 5230 are supports. Staying above, keeps 5274, 5300, 5338 in play. 5230 fails, retest 5191
OverNight Price Action REview ES 8-6-24Going over the Overnight Price Action looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. how we want to position for the Morning session.
SPX500 Plans; Crucial Understanding Of SentimentPowell has just mentioned broader disinflation occurring, and also the need to be less restrictive on rates.
This is propelling SPX long momentum.
If you are looking to trade the SPX, there's a few things you need to know first.
ES price action Review RTH 8-5-24Going over the price action ES RTH looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded the day better. do the hard work. dont skip and cheat. do as much as you can every day. did i do enough today???
ES Daily Violence Into 200 Bounce PlayAny violence into the 200sma and the subsequent small bounce is 100% shortable after the elimination of the green's body. In this case, 4250.
Sell limit order under that body low at 4245
Target the low of the range or 4850
Violence into the 200sma is NOT a buyable event and WILL roll over in a dead cat bounce.
All the dashed lines below are pivot lows where stops are placed. Ample fuel for stop runs down.
Also, trade in the direction of the 21ema as that is where the flow of power is at the moment. Why pick a bottom when you can just slip in the river and be swept downstream without trying.
AMP Futures - Session Volume Profile (SVP) - NEW chart typeIn this idea we will demonstrate how to access the NEW Chart type "Session Volume Profile" (SVP).
Catching its breathI am repeating what I said on Friday and that is the S&P 500 market has moved far enough fast enough for the market to stop and catch its breath. The reaction to Friday's S&P 500 movement carried over into the Asia session and globally to the possibility of a recession. I think now the market needs to reconnoiter and create an inside day based on Mondays movement on Tuesday.
Change of Market Structure (Reverting Back To Original Thesis)I believe I was wrong on a bull rally but instead the market is performing what I was planning back in September of 2023.
A sideways range for the next 20 years. It just took awhile to start to roll over. The June, July and August monthly candles completes the engulfing pattern at the top of the bear flag.
I am now short after taking some losses on my Dow position and will target the rising to flattening out 200sma down at 2900.
Notice the bear flag as well on the MACD? It will soon too be rolling over and going deep into sell territory. Plus the monthly MACD divergence.
I can't believe I got suckered into this fake bull rally after being a bear back in 2023.
I will link below my original thesis as I don't want to go over the same charts as before.
One thing to note on the Daily chart is the violence INTO the 200sma is regarded as a selling opportunity.
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning.
comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways.
Invalidation is below 5100.
bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
