Full ES Trading Plan for Aug 26thPlan For Monday: supports are 5642, 5630 (major), 5620, 5616, 5612 (major), 5605 (major), 5598, 5594, 5588-86 (major), 5576, 5572, 5566 (major), 5560, 5547, 5534-38 (major).
Levels to Bid:
• Still holding my runner from the 5588-93 long Friday night and letting it ride. I added another 25% around 5647 late in the day because my cost basis is low, so as long as we’re above break-even, I’m holding.
• It should be clear by now that ES is setting up a new consolidation range between 5659 and 5588-92. This range is wide and could become a bit of a battleground. Must take profits level by level. Overtrade within this range, the market will eat your lunch.
• Everything in this range is choppy with poor follow-through, so it’s best to wait for failed breakdowns, trade level to level, leave runners on, and stop overtrading. Since Tuesday, the structure looks like a “megaphone” or early bull flag. There are several critical levels in this range that have been heavily tested, so you’ll need to be nimble.
• First Level Down: 5630. It’s been worked a lot, so I’ll watch the volume in real-time. Ideally, I’d want to see it flush and reclaim, maybe down to 5620 before considering entries.
• This only applies if we haven’t broken out of the 5659 range first. If we break to new highs, then any new longs below are off the table.
• Below 5630: We’ve got the 5612 and 5605 cluster. Watch for failed breakdowns of Friday's low, and if we can hit 5605 or so and reclaim, I’ll be looking to go long. If things are looking particularly bearish, I might wait for 5612 to recover before jumping in.
• If 5588 fails: I’ll probably be flipping to shorts and won’t be interested in longs until around 5534-38.
Resistances:
• 5654, 5659 (major), 5662, 5672, 5679, 5687-90 (major), 5694, 5705 (major), 5714, 5720 (major), 5730 (major), 5737, 5746, 5749 (major), 5758, 5770 (major), 5778, 5785 (major).
• As usual, I have a strict “no shorting strength” rule when we’re in an uptrend. I just don’t do it. For those who are into that kind of risky play, 5659 has been tested a lot and has worked for shorts a few times already, so it’s probably losing reliability.
• Next risky short spot: 5687-90, then 5730 and 5785 if you’re feeling brave.
Buyers Case:
• I’m seeing 5588 to 5659 as a chop zone now, so the “buyers case” is the default as long as 5588 keeps holding. With this structure intact, I see the 5588-5659 range as just another bullish continuation pattern.
• Remember, in an uptrend, most traders assume all structures will break to the upside—because 80% of the time, they do. I’m not trying to be a hero and predict which 20% will fail; I’ll just short when one does. It's literally that simple. Til then, you stay with the trend.
• The buyers case for Monday would be more range filling, followed by a breakout targeting 5673, then 5687-90. After that, it’s probably on to all-time highs, with 5785 being the next big magnet.
• Ultra bullish scenario: ES doesn’t dip at all and goes straight up. This would likely see ES flagging below 5659 and above 5630, maybe without even hitting 5642 first. I’d consider adding in this case, especially if we probe under 5642 and recover, but it’s hard to get too specific without seeing how things play out Sunday night/Monday morning.
Sellers Case:
• Starts with a break below 5588. I’d need to see a final bounce/failed breakdown/reaction at 5588. After this plays out and its clear there is minimal demand left at the level, I will be shorting. Perhaps 5583 trigger. Level to level profit takes.
In general, defer to the trend as always. 5659 to 5588 = pure chop. We can fill this out in many ways. As long as this structure is intact, we push to 5672, 5687-90 next. Maybe a dip there, then on to 5705, 5730. If 5588 fails, we finally get a short trigger and start the leg down to 5538.
