Having a Look at the S&P...It looks Bullish...Many of my trader friends trade the S&P. I dont because I trade London session. But im having a dabble in it to see if I can understand how it moves.
ES1! trade ideas
Reveries II (Q4 update) It's Mid October and we're inside the 12M sell box;
r1 on 1M - 5902
r1 on 1W 5924
r1 on 1D 5898, r2 5918 (chart on right)
r1 on 4h macro 5896, r2 @ 5921 (on left)
all pending bearish rotation.
Feasible push to 5896 (r1 on 4h macro, maybe even r2 @ 5921)
but unless es sustains north of 5902 / 5918, downside cycle is coming, and wkly could push to 5790's with minor extension.
No bounce there and monthly could revisit 5590's, before post election pump to fill out upper end of 12M sell box (roughly 5827 - 6095, same levels projected from Feb).
Projected floor for Q4 5440 - 5320, barring some random endgame narrative, dip to this level keeps us above August lows and provides a generous running start for the leap to breach 6k.
Wildcard scenario; hunt to 5960s before pre-election evac... watch for strength north of 5902 / 5921 and if it sustains above, temper expectations; as a.) 5953 is the 120% level for the year and b.) last high on 1d di+ after August low printed Sep 17.
Appreciate the risk.
Nervous marketThe structure for the last few days in the S&P 500 imply a nervous market and the expectations for Tuesday is for arrange to stay inside the highs and lows for the last couple days. Dramatic movement without new fundamentals is not expected.
Es levels and targets Oct 21stOn Friday, I was targeting a rally in ES to 5915, which has been a key resistance level for several days. We hit it spot on Friday, touched it again at last night’s open, then pulled back from there
As of now: 5882-78 is the support zone. We need to reclaim 5892 to aim for 5902 and 5915 again. If 5882 breaks, 5869 and 5850 below
SP500**SP500:**
New all time high ate 5925.75.
This week's forecast is for the price to continue to rise.
MES!1 10/21/24Monday & Tuesday I expect to see a retracement down to the Friday 10/18 NDOG before a rally back up to take out Friday's high then a new all time high.
Full Plan for Monday Oct 21stPlan for Monday:
Supports:
• Major: 5892, 5878, 5869, 5850, 5820, 5802-05, 5787, 5770, 5752, 5734, 5710, 5683, 5676, 5657-60
• Minor: 5882, 5871, 5862, 5857, 5842, 5834, 5828, 5814, 5796, 5782, 5779, 5763, 5755, 5746, 5740, 5725, 5721, 5715, 5708-10, 5702, 5693, 5679, 5669, 5666
What I’m Watching:
We are inside a broad consolidation zone from 5915 to 5850, but the tighter consolidation within this range (5892 to 5915) is becoming tricky due to the deep use of these levels. Flexibility is key when trading in this range.
For Monday, 5892 is the first major support, though it’s been overused and may no longer be reliable. I’d prefer to wait for a reaction there, with safer longs only coming if we reclaim 5902 after testing lower. If 5892 fails, a selloff could follow, a common occurrence for Monday. Below that, 5878 is the next key level down, but I’m less inclined to take long positions here unless we see a failed breakdown with a recovery back above 5869. If we get a further breakdown, 5850 becomes the key line of defense before a potential flush down to 5820.
Resistances:
• Major: 5900-02, 5914, 5933, 5945, 5956, 5962, 5997-6000, 6007, 6040-45, 6070, 6098
• Minor: 5907, 5922, 5935, 5951
Bull Case for Monday:
We’re in a broad consolidation zone from 5915 to 5850, with bulls still holding the advantage as long as this structure remains intact. The tighter range of 5892 to 5915 will likely dictate the early moves. For the bulls, the ideal scenario is to hold above 5892, base out, and then rally to 5933 and beyond.
As loose concepts though, I’d consider any flagging that does not make a new high above Friday’s high and that holds 5900 or 5892 (bonus if we flush to 5892 and recover 5900) as being very bullish and worth adding.
In the “ultra bull case,” we wouldn’t even lose 5892, quickly basing above 5900, which could lead to a squeeze toward 5933 and potentially higher.
Bear Case for Monday:
The bear case becomes relevant if 5850 breaks down. Breakdowns are tricky and often trap traders (80% failure rate), so it’s a low-win rate but high-reward setup. If 5892 fails, we could see some downside pressure, with 5878 and then 5850 as key supports. If these levels don’t hold, we could see a sharper selloff toward 5820 or lower.
However, I am obviously not going to just short below 5850 after selling 60 points there from here. I’d need to see a strong bounce there or a failed breakdown, see longs work, and only then would I consider shorting under wherever the structure (lows) are at the time—this could be around 5847. On a shorter-term basis, there may be a short opportunity if 5892 fails. This level has been heavily worked, but it’s ideal to see one more bounce attempt there, and then short just under the low of that bounce. Be careful here, as we could easily flush to 5869 and then squeeze back up. If I do short, I would exit and be willing to switch long.
Summary for Monday:
We’re stuck in a consolidation range between 5915 and 5850, with 5892 to 5915 being the tighter range within. The market could ping-pong between these levels before making a more decisive move. My lean remains to defer to the overall trend, with a preference for buying dips unless key supports like 5850 fail. A break of 5892 could lead to a Monday dip, but as long as bulls hold 5850, the broader structure remains bullish, targeting 5933+.
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: 4 different upper bull trend lines for multiple wedges and all are kinda valid. You just never know which one will be most respected by the algo’s. 6000 is the target, much more likely we get there before a bigger correction. Don’t try to be the first bear on this.
Quote from last week:
comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this.
comment : Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5800 - 6000
bull case: Bulls know technically we are at the top of them all and the rally is on it’s last legs. Big round numbers are still just too good to not hit if history tells us anything. Bears are not doing anything and not enough bulls are taking profits, so the market only knows one direction. As long as we are staying above the two bull trend lines that are closest, bulls are good and we continue.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears are not doing enough. They have many reasonable targets below but what good are those if the 4h 20ema keeps getting bought almost the entire week? Can you sell new highs for a scalp? Sure. Bears need anything below 5800 to start having arguments. Reasonable scalp is probably a break below 5850 for 5800 but as of now, there isn’t much more to expect for Monday. I am open to surprises though. Overall I just doubt many bears want to short 5900 when they know everyone wants to see 60000 and there is much more value to short there.
Invalidation is above 6050.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5859 and now we are at 5906. Neutral wasn’t too bad since market made 60 points on the week. Wasn’t good either, I know.
short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Adjusted the many bull trend lines to show it’s pure guesswork which one will be respected. All are valid until clearly broken. Big dotted means that the pattern is on the weekly or monthly chart, and some breaks above are tolerable and do not mean the pattern is invalid. Close is always close enough.
ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.20 - 10.25Last Week :
Last week Globex opened and held over Value, for any weakness from there we needed to either get back under Value middle or tag VAH and come back in, instead we pushed up into VAH before the RTH which brought in more buying and gave us a push to test the upper Edge of this HTF Range we have accepted in. As mentioned Monday first tags of big HTF areas like that more often than not give a reaction into opposite direction, which we got the following day with a flush back into Value but that supply was bought up and we again pushed outside of Value. Last two days of the week we ended up balancing between VAH and Edge keeping the price inside the new HTF Range with a close right under the Edge, under Monday and Thursday Highs.
This Week :
This week I am leaning towards us staying within the current HTF Range as we again don't have much of market moving data coming. Something to look for is if we still have strong enough buying in/over Value then we could continue balancing around this current Intraday Range of 930s - 880s BUT we do have a week of Supply built up here and we are right at the Edge of the HTF Range which tells me that unless we can build up inside the Edge then push over and continue to VAL above or hold the Edge on pull backs after taking it then I wont be looking for much higher prices from here but instead for a possible return back to VAH and possibly a move back inside Value into 880s - 40s Intraday Range, with supply above we could see a return back to 870 - 50s and even pushes towards 40s and VAL.
If we do make moves towards VAL we need to be careful with looking for too much continuation under 50 - 40s unless we can take out VAL and show clear acceptance under it, until then we can spend time balancing around this current Value thats if we get back inside of course which would mean for pushes out of VAH and VAL would find their way back inside eventually.
We could continue to grind higher here to start the week and attempt to push inside the Edge to try and build up there but as mentioned careful looking for continuation unless we get through the Edge top and don't come back in.
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - Numerous Opportunities ScalpingVery efficiently delivered price during this week with little to no inefficiencies to the downside. This suggests a massive price to the downside if ES was to print bearish price action.
$5,850 is the weekly lows is in the cards if we see a sharp retracement but due to the overall sentiment being bullish, it would be wise to anticipate longs up to $5,927.25 all-time highs but sitting back, awaiting for more data would be the best thing to do in this case.
Studying Mondays price delivery will be key to detect whether the highs has been printed for the week.
Sideways movementAfter the lack of follow-through from the sellers on Thursday resulted in a positive close on Friday in the S&P 500. The overall structure has a bullish bias but it implies a sideways movement on Monday within the ranges of Thursday and Friday.
Sp500 emini po3 respectedSame thoughts on this chart like CME_MINI:NQ1! If necessary conditions meet.The target is around 3500
Es levels and targets October 18Following a 70-point squeeze, yesterday was a chop day in ES. Overnight support at 5878 held right on target, and reclaiming 5892 was key to triggering the move to 5900, which we’ve now reached.
As of now: It’s OPEX, so be cautious and avoid overtrading. The 5892-5902 zone is chop, but it leaves 5907 and 5915+ on the table. If 5892 breaks, look for a dip to 5878.
20241018 ESI anticipate some SandD before 9.30 and +Judas to D wick CE resistance level on 9.30 RTH start. The big picture is the SandD Bearish Friday ICT weekly profile.
There is no HI news today that is why 9.30 is the most important time point during AMS. In case 9.30 will make downside Judas swing that will reverse the scenario, moreover if d wick CE resistance fails to provide a resistance and PA moves higher => that makes odds high for the new high of the week (HOW).
Sellers dominatedSellers dominated the price action on Thursday in the S&P 500. Was this selling profit-taking from buyers or have new sellers entered the market. A week close on Friday when indicate that sellers are continuing to enter the market.
Elliott Wave Intraday View: S&P 500 Futures (ES) Wave 5 In ProgrShort Term Elliott Wave View in S&P 500 Futures (ES) suggests that cycle from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 5669.75 and dips in wave 2 ended at 5394. The Index extends higher in wave 3 towards 5830 and pullback in wave 4 ended at 5724. Internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 5756.2 and wave ((b)) ended at 5822.50. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 5724 which completed wave 4 in higher degree.
The Index has resumed higher in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 5808 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 5725.25. Wave (iii) higher ended at 5846.50 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 5811.50. Final leg wave (v) ended at 5918.50 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Correction in wave ((ii)) is proposed complete at 5850 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. The Index then resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5927.25. Near term, as far as pivot at 5724.01 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
ES Falling WedgeShort term falling wedge here on ES. Looking for a breakout overnight which could lead to a move back up to supply and ATH. Final upside target for me is around 5950, using the flag pole measured move.
This 5900-5890 area has proven to be important so if we don't get the breakout and fall farther below 5900, downside target would be 5866.50.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT. 14-18th: BUY THE S&P 500? YES!The S&P 500 looks to have supporting structure for higher prices. The bullish momentum is there, and Friday's close put that on display.
There is some potential for a limited pullback, though. But I would view it as a better price for a possible long entry.
What are your thoughts....?
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
ES developing a top ?Although from a Macro perspective and the inclusion of fundamentals we indeed look bullish across the equity space on the HTF. I'm looking at this possibly been a turning point for ES ans thus the other equities. Note the 3 week creation of a small inverse candle if closed below often leads to a nice downturn. So It is something Im keeping a close eye on with regards to TA.
SPY/ES1! Flagging In Bullish Carryover Trend - Squeeze PosssibleCheck out the APEX FLAGGING formation in the SPY and ES chart; they are aligning perfectly.
If my analysis is correct, the SPY and ES should move into an upward price squeeze after the Flag Apex volatility period (roughly 20+ minutes) is complete.
That means the SPY and ES should move into a more defined upward price trend as we close out the day today - possibly carrying into tomorrow.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
This Wyckoff VSA Buy in Gold and Short S&P FuturesIn this video produced by Author of "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money", Gavin Holmes, we see clear buying by professionals in the GC futures contract (Indicator is PB in the Wyckoff VSA system for TradingView) and clear selling into the e-Mini S&P Futures contract (Indicator is PS in the Wyckoff VSA system for TradingView).
The markets move based on three universal laws, its simple as explained over 100 years ago by Richard D Wyckoff, a famous investor in the early 1900's.
The laws are:
Supply and Demand
Cause and Effect
Effort Vs Result
The fourth law to success is your belief system, often referred to in new thinking as:
The Law of Attraction. Enjoy the video and I hope it helps You succeed.
Namaste, Gavin Holmes, Author "Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money" and "Think-Link-Create".
spy500 short incoming as you can see spy500 takes volume divergences combined with trendline breaks very seriously
and i dont see any point longing in these areas im sure everyones waiting for a short setup , the one think im also concerned about is how up spy500 is this year , 32% i believe part of me wonders how big this short could be , but of course as always tp atleast 80% at 2r
