ES1! trade ideas
Overnight ES price Action REview 10-29-24going over the price action overnight and looking for clues as to what the market wants to do. our lean is lower and then a possible long. no A+ trade setups no trades.
Going long on the open, taking profit at Y close.Small fast trade, bullish open. Trailing stop close
ES levels and targets Oct 29thAfter rallying to the 5882 target yesterday, ES spent the rest of the day chopping around 5864-65 support. This level remains the pivot/magnet of a two-week range, and we’re not done with it yet—it was lost overnight.
As of now: 5843-46 is the next major support level below. If that doesn’t hold, look for 5834 and 5815. Bulls need to reclaim 5855 to rally back toward 5864-65, with 5878+ beyond that.
Long trade Buyside trade
LND Session AM
4.00 am (NY time)
Entry 5864.25
Profit level 5915.25 (0.87%)
Stop level 5854.00 (0.17%)
RR 4.98
Reason for entry
Phase D Whykoff Method
MES Potential Upside Breakout
With support forming along trend line and upcoming news events, looking for price to break to the upside and potentially re-test highs at 5,900.
Waiting for an excuseThe structure on the daily chart in the S&P 500 implies a market waiting for an excuse for a directional move. The overall structure as we talked about in the video is neutral. The directional bias for the structure is for move lower.
ES price aCtion review RTH 10-28-24Going over the price action RTH monday ES looking for clues as to what the market was telling us. we are hunters and we will wait patiently for our prey.
Bearish MES Contracts Trade IdeaCurrent market conditions suggest a potential pullback in MES contracts as broader economic signals continue to show uncertainty. After a recent rally, prices appear overextended on the higher timeframes, and momentum may begin to shift downward as investors weigh upcoming data releases and recent Fed statements. I’m looking for a corrective move lower, targeting support levels on the intraday charts, with stops set above recent highs to manage risk. This setup anticipates short-term selling pressure as the market readjusts from its recent highs.
ES levels and targets Oct 28thFor the past two weeks, ES has been stuck in a range. We ran to the top of it on Friday, then sellers pulled back. I noted in plan Sunday that 5843 (or 5848 to be safer) needed to recover to push higher again—closed below it late Friday, and reclaimed at open Sunday reaching 5882+. The money has been made, hold runners.
As of now: A bit of complexity today. 5865 is solid support and needs to hold to keep 5882 and 5892+ in play. If 5865 fails, expect a dip toward 5857.
ES SUnday night to 0800 EST price ReviewGoing over the price action from sunday night to 0800 monday. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we'll lean and trade today. no setups no trades for us. only A++ trades while we get back into the flow of the market. Tampa Hurricanes are no joke not for the weak of mind. thats for sure.
Combined US Equities Lousy Breakout means BreakdownThe combined US equities chart failed to push significantly and is consolidating. when it does this, it looks like it is rolling over to fall off a cliff.
IF we look carefully, besides the weakening technical indicators, there is also weakening price action, with the second or third lower high in the hourly time frame.
That said, the decision box needs to be broken out of, and then the critical support (red line).
Once these give way, it would be too obvious and there should be a sizeable retracement to the previous support, now being the downside target.
$ES_F Plan For October 28S&P 500 Futures
$ES_F SP:SPX AMEX:SPY #Futures #Stockmarket #DayTrading #Investing #sp500trading #futurestrading #MarketAnalysis #NQTrading #ESTrading
Friday’s plan targeted the $5881-$5893 area for a lower high - still in anticipation of a D1 EMA50 contraction. A short squeeze push price higher, but rejected below break out resistance, keeping the proposed flag structure in play.
The weekly timeframe pulled back into EMA9, backtesting the break out at $5801. This level is key for the coming week, and because of the underlying trend (price is being delivered out of W1 EMA50) we should expect last week’s low to hold. If last week’s low is lost, it would confirm that the uptrend attempt is failing, but sellers would still have to push through W1 EMA21 to confirm a bearish reversal. Therefore, $5662 is weekly key support.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.27 - 11.01Last Week :
Last week Sunday Globex opened right at the upper Edge with a sell back to VAH. Going into the week being under the Edge and under 900 was our key to see moves back to Value, we saw pushes inside Value Monday RTH and Tuesday Pre Market which were bought up until we built more supply right around VAH which finally gave us a move into Value for the 70 - 50s and 40s targets. We did get enough Volume to make it all the way down to VAL and through towards the lower Edge but ran out of Supply right at the top of Previous Distribution Balance and were able to come back inside Value. We ended the week with another attempt out of VAH which ran out of buying and came back inside Value to take back the whole move which was done during Globex hours to close under the Mean right into the Intraday Range Edge of 41 - 36.
This Week :
Looking at this weeks chart and price location it's not as easy to read as there are lots of possibilities which could happen. We are going into Month end week, have quite a bit of market moving data, supply in Value and above, and covering at and under VAL.
30m , 2h, 4h are in correction mode, 1hr not quite there just yet if we are looking at the MAs.
Daily TF also giving us first signs of correction starting but it's just the first steps which means it might not be ready yet for any bigger continuation lower and at the same time have the Supply in Value and above to possibly go down and fill the buying in around VAL and Under.
Of course IF stronger volume comes in and we see strong acceptance under VAL and are able to push inside or through the lower Edge then that could bring in a bigger change for more downside into lower HTF Range/our Previous Distribution Balance low and lower Value so will be something to keep in mind and watch for.
If we can't stay above 840s - 50s to stay over the Mean of this Value and stay in this 880 - 40 Intraday Range then we will look for pushes into VAL and under, at and under VAL we have to be careful as there could be enough buying/covering to keep us away from the Edge but at the same time not give us big bounces as we have seen before, instead we could distribute around this 840 - 800s area. After failing at the upper Edge with Supply above, lower Edge and even push under it could be a good target/move to see this week but I am just trying to stay away from getting too biased to not push for it but its something to keep in mind.
For us to think higher prices from here again we would need to either hold above 840s and get back over 50 - 60s to stay in 880 - 40s Intraday Range and see pushes towards VAH or consolidate around VAL without accepting under and then push back over Value Mean.
And if buying and selling on both sides of Value is still strong enough then we could continue holding and going back and forth between VAH/VAL.
Overall looking at HTFs it seems like we are ready for a bigger back fill to finally happen in the market but it might take time to play out, if there will be interest I can post a Daily TF Chart which shows the range we broke out of is 5750s - 5400s, a back fill to break out area and IF we get back inside then move towards Mid/lows and under of that range can be in play but again that's HTF Outlook that can take a LONG time to fully play out not for intraday or shorter term swing trading.
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 : Multiple ways to draw triangles and bull wedges on the daily chart. It has room to go more sideways but Friday’s reversal was so strong an market closed at the lows, that I think many bulls have enough reason to be disappointed and will exit once we break below 5800 and then we will likely see 5750 next. Above 5905 I am wrong and this will likely be the leg to 6000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other.
comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges and a minor triangle from past 2 weeks
key levels: 5800 - 6000
bull case: 6000 is the target. Bulls now tried many times to break above 5930 but continue to fail. Same reasoning as for dax. Can the market find more buyers above 5900 next time we get there or do we have to pull back down to 5730 first? Until we see a daily close below 5800, bulls are still favored, since we are only closing above the daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears are printing weak bear bars and can not close below the daily ema. Pure guesswork as of now, which side will give up first. We will very likely get a bigger move next week, so don’t blow your account until then. If bears move strongly below 5800, 5730 is next and there it’s big decision time if we see 6000 or not.
Invalidation is above 6050.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5906 and now we are at 5846. Most of the week was neutral, and we closed just 60 points lower than last week.
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed wave count
ES TARGETTING $5795It seems ES failed to break above $5860 and is now likely to break below $5836, as it's been tested three times already. The fourth test is approaching, with a first target at $5795 and a second target at $5744.
$SPY #ES_F (Fibonacci BOT UPDATE)JUST 1 Fibonacci Swing PER WEEK over 6k this week in 2 days I took this by entering my orders using BRACKETS (chart below)
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$spx on way to build 4th parabolic base since 1929we are leaving the 4th parabolic base of the post 2009 rally... that epxect blow off top from that rally, is expected to create a consolidation forming the 4th parabolic base of the post 1929 rally... after the 5th parabolic base is consumated, we expect a 70/80% crash...
BalancedThe rally and break in the S&P 500 on Friday sets up a balanced environment going into the weekend. I am looking for a sideways move on Monday
S&P500: Price went as forecast!Too bad I didn't follow through with my original target :)
But still made small profits.
Next few trading days might be sideways to bearish. So I will look to sell more than buy.
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S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - This Is What Price Efficiency Looks Like📈 S&P 500 futures edge up as earnings roll in; corporate America still looking good with 74% of companies beating profit expectations.
Stock futures ticked up, but S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq are on track for weekly losses.
Capri shares sank 40%+ premarket due to a court ruling.
However, throughout this weeks price action, we have not done much in the sense of one-way movements.
$5,927.25 - $5,801.00 is the range to work with. As long as price remains inside of this range, it will be tricky for swing traders to capture moves. Scalpers will be having a field day, aiming for low hanging fruits; buyside and Sellside.
But remember to stay tuned for U.S. durable-goods orders and consumer sentiment readings.
