Lean HogJuly Lean Hog broke trend Wednesday and made a couple of gaps. Tomorrow one gap may fill, if not lower prices to 75.500 area. Hog index is 77.64, but all contracts are down and below index.
PRK1! trade ideas
Lean Hogs Bullish FlagJuly Lean Hogs has created a bullish flag today. Look for rise to fill gap at 79. Hogs is also creating a H&S. Seeing that most H&S's don't come to fruition, this is a cautionary situation.
Hogs Going for Second gapThe market hates gaps and will always try to fill at some point. June Lean Hogs filled one gap and will probably attempt the next one Monday/Tuesday. Lean Hog index has stopped increasing, but remains around 77.73.
Lean Hogs Futures: New Uptrend is FormingOne more high in a month
Lean hogs futures price rose more than 27% last month.
It made the bottom in October at 40.75 and since then keeps growing. Now it became pretty clear that we have the 12345 Elliott Wave motive structure almost finished. Need to finish the wave 4 and then the last 5th wave in this structure will perform by making one more high. Look at the chart.
Bigger correction ahead, buy after the correction
As always, no uptrend can go without corrections. Once the 5th wave finishes, we gonna see a bigger correction for the next 2-3 months. That correction should look like a short-term downtrend or just a sideways moving. Anyway, be patient and wait for a good time to buy lean hogs. The best time to buy gonna be March or April 2017: at $62 level for agressive strategies or after $72 fibonacci level breaking for conservative strategies. The possible trade target is $90.
Longer-term: New lean hogs paradigm?
The big picture is still unclear, and it depends on how exactly this instrument will behave next year. There are 2 possible varinats:
* The new long term motive wave is forming. In this case the price gonna only rise in the following years, the upside target is really high;
* This is a big ABC wave, and in this case we gonna see the overall trend target no higher than $120-130 in a year or two.
Lean HogsHogs have been moving upwards in tune with the USDA hog index. This is still an uptrend. Watch USDA hog index for price direction. April Hogs has been more in tune with this index than other charts.
Lean HogLean Hog's price index is at 71.94 about where the day ended. Hogs met the Cypher pattern extension and fell back. If the price index is up again tomorrow more upside may take place. For now we have a down day cycle which may move up to the end of the week. Open interest is starting to rise once again.
Lean HogsApril Lean Hogs is fighting lower prices. The last 3 days were crazy. We may continue uptrend on Monday as Feb Lean Hog (see below) has created a Harami pattern suggesting higher prices. The USDA index for Lean Hog is 68.11 area and has been rising. If we get a triple top, we may be looking at even higher prices. Next USDA index comes out at 8:45 Chicago time. This market is also under the 20 day moving average.
Lean HogLean Hog produced a double top today after buying yesterday, which was a shock, and did a mad sell with just a little tail showing. Looking for even lower prices tomorrow. Was watching to see if bulls bought back some of the sell to 67.875 area, which may have produced an up day tomorrow, but bears fought hard and kept it in check. Cypher is still intact. Look for 78.6% as target using Gann Fan 2/1 as support
Lean HogsApril Lean Hogs collapsed further today. Looking for candlestick pattern 3 black crows tomorrow, which might suggest building out the last leg of the Cypher pattern. Next target for the bears is 61.8% at 66.675. Still being cautious of a break up for more long action. Open interest is still rising and volume is moderate which is a good indication for continued fall.
Lean HogsApril Lean hogs is building a bearish flag today. Look for continued up and down until confirmation. The CCI is below trend and dipping down. A higher low has been created. Friday could be setup for a Monday fall.
Lean HogApril Lean Hog fell further today and almost getting to 38.2 retracement. The CCI made a cross over and looking for lower prices, but because this market seems to have full bull force behind it and the open interest is pointing higher, be cautious. Next move down for bears is 67.9 where the bottom of today's low was. Possibly to 50% Fib.
Lean HogsApril Lean Hogs saw no advancement off the bullish flag. A Doji was created today suggesting a possible reversal. Also this market has achieved the mini Cypher pattern and getting close to the major Cypher. Will this become a Butterfly? Be cautious on your trade. Upside may be to 70.725 area. Downside to 67.90 area for a 38.2% retracement. This market is nearing a extreme overbought situation.
Lean HogsApril Lean Hogs tried to rise out of the bullish flag today but was traded back into the flag. The low is higher than the previous low suggesting further upside. We may see this market go higher on Monday. Next target for the bulls is 70.750 to complete the large Cypher pattern and enter into the smaller Cypher's extension.
Lean HogApril Lean Hog sees higher low and is creating a bullish flag. Seeing market to continue up until proven otherwise. Lean Hog remains in the 1/1 Gann Fan. Next target for bulls is 70.700.
Unusually high Hog prices this WinterWith McDonalds promoting their Famous McRib this winter, we are seeing unusually high Hog prices, but that's about to change soon and we should be expecting the usual low Winter prices beginning of next year to beginning of summer.
Waiting on the 0.618 retrace since it popped above 0.50 level.
Blue box is normal range for Hogs. 2014 we saw unusual prices due to swine flu.
April Lean HogsApril Lean Hogs tried to break 68.475 for higher highs. Several hammers have been created suggesting further long position. Next target for bulls 68.925 and then 70 to complete an open Elliot Wave 1-5.
April Lean HogsApril Lean Hogs hasn't broken uptrend and is continuing to hold Cypher pattern. Looking for prices to rise to 70 if bulls can move this market higher. Last leg of the Elliot Wave would bring this market to Cypher pattern completion. Remember that the Cypher pattern BC leg can extend up 113-141.4% making the price 72.650. Prices remain above the 20 day moving average.
Happy trading
April Lean Hogs Bullish CypherApril Lean Hogs was up today on strong buys and building a bullish Cypher pattern. Next target for bulls is 69 which could produce a double top. Hogs moved back above the 20 day moving average and remain in a strong up trend within the 1/1 Gann Fan.
Lean Hogs fell below the 20 day moving averaageFeb, April and June Lean Hogs fell below the 20 day moving average. Still an unstable market of up and down movement. Look for further lows to 38.2.
Can Hogs make it back to 80'sI try to follow the meat complex but get distracted by other markets. Hogs and Cattle, since November were apparently the markets to follow and, for some reason, I haven't tracked them. Hogs have made an incredible run since mid November and could be at a pause point. How they open this coming week should add clarity if there is more to the correction underway or not. The question is can this market make it back to 80's or higher. On the daily renko chart with blksz set to 1, price is now at the 200EMA and the 2hr and 5Min are showing a correction underway.
On the 2hr, the charcoal box is what the 5min expands out to and the red box is where the buy signal was triggered had I been paying attention.
Feb Lean Hogs Bullish FlagsFeb Lean Hog has created a series of bullish flags but hasn't produce much results as of late. Still in the 1/1 Gann Fan. Look for continued sideways action and breakouts unless bears can trade this lower.
Feb Lean Hog Finish ButterflyLean Hog finished it's butterfly today. Possible run through the XA leg extension and run to top of hogs. Sell back this morning was short lived as bulls are still in command.
