Get started
Micro Bitcoin FuturesMicro Bitcoin FuturesMicro Bitcoin Futures

Micro Bitcoin Futures

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Forward curve Seasonals Contracts Options

MBT1! trade ideas

BTC SHORT, BEAR'S LAST STANDA lot of resistance at ~24.5k, coming from a long-term channel since the ATH, and the local high of ~25k in mid-Aug. Shorting given a recent decline in volume and OI slightly declining at these prices. . However, upon doing so one must consider the bull/bear case that may play out. BULL : Nov. 15k was the bottom, and we may either be in a new bull market cycle or still within a bull market that started in 2018 on the way to 100k by EOY. For this to be the case, we must hold ~18.5k-19k, with no daily closes below it, and allow a re-entry, followed by a smash over 25k. Once done, bears have a final stand of ~27k which currently follows the 12-month MA on the BTC spot index chart. If we close above the 52-week MA, the bear market is over. VWAP lines represent areas of resistance if the bull case plays out. There is some evidence of a parabolic move possibly playing out thanks to TechDev_52's tweet of a correlation between BTC and Global Liquidity (CN10Y/DXY) where "Every ATH-setting move began after CN10Y/DXY closed above its 3W 20MA" with every "major impulse topped *at most* 12 months later". So, at worst a parabolic run could come by to stop by Nov. 2023 Failure with that brings the bear case... BEAR : Bottom not in given macro conditions and projections on SP500, which could be correlated with BTC. 24k strong resistance, we correct past the CME gap at 20k, play around with 19k followed by a sudden close under it, which can bring us to 14k, maybe even 12.5k. There is a minor "NEUTRAL" case where a double bottom could form ~14.5-15k, where we do get a bull re-entry as noted on the chart, break 25k, and then get slapped hard at 27k-34k, all the way back down to 24k followed by 14-16k, and then trigger another bull re-entry similar to how 2019-2020 played out or even back in 2015 that had a double bottom. I was wrong on the last BTC trade as the trend changed on Jan. 12th following a possible short-term regime change around EOY 2022, be it market participants entering back in after selling off in Q4 for tax reasons, macro liquidity flows, etc. Overall, I think we'll range for a while between 27k-14k, followed by another explosive move on the low end of that range toward 30k. I don't know how long, maybe months. Trades: Short E: 23.1k SL: 26k TP:20k, 18k, 15k (likely close), 12.5k Long E:20k SL:17.8k TP:25k, 27k, 32k SPY SPY short has not changed. I could see SPY targeting ~420 and then starting a new downtrend, SL adjusted a bit higher to 427. I will say at these prices, both BTC and SPY have growing voices of bears and bulls. A lot of long hedgers at $SPY since the Oct. and late Dec. bottom, and on late Dec. for BTC. Break those levels and we're in for extreme fear. Q1 2023 volatility could still spike if geopolitics play out concerning control over oil in the middle east/eastern Europe if EV infrastructure is proven incapable of sustaining itself at scale by 2030.
CME:BTC1!Short
by linebands
Bitcoin AFTER THE STORM, COMES THE SUNIncredible resistance at the 25200 area showing strong sell pressure. Some narratives that are taking place right now : -CME gap filled from Jan 13. Although not always true, many traders have the belief CME gaps are always filled and the narratives in the media are used to reach to those gaps. We just filled the 19500 gap. -Fud and fud everywhere with Silvergate, Binance Fud, sillicon valley, kucoin, gemini ,etc... -Interests rates are going up, Capital gain taxes proposal from 20% to 40% by Biden, unemployment rates going up etc... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1) Is the correction over? -No one knows that for sure, I am not a magician. However, We should be close to being over and things should be settling soon. 2) Whats next week prediction ? -The storm is still not done, however, it should be close to being over. In other words, expect volatility and maybe a drop lower. Alts are still not done correcting and could be going up soon. Soon we will have more opportunities for longs and spot long term positions. "AFTER THE STORM, COMES THE SUN" Once the storm settles bulls will come out and start longing. I believe that after this dip we should be reclaiming 25k area and higher. ***DIPS ARE BUY BUYING .*
CME:BTC1!
by CryptoGao1
6
$BTC did it!#Bitcoin is off to the races. Some time ago we called the bottom & #BTC bear done. However, we noticed that the RSI was weak. We were wrong and right. Right in the sense that there were MANY signs that it was over but wrong as RSI was not there. PREMATURE call that ended up being right. :) Yesterday we mentioned that we need volume & a confirm today, WE GOT IT. We may get a breather around 27kish and the eventual GAP fill sub 29k. #Altcoins are moving but most are not performing anywhere near as well as big daddy $BTC has in the last few days. This tends to be the norm though. We lessened positions when BTC crossed over 24k, that was a problematic area. We went full long again between Thursday and Friday. It's paying off nicely. Worst is most likely over. What would SEAL the deal is WEEKLY close. (monthly would be ice on the cake) Let's GO!
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BTC Future Movements In Coming DaysAs I Told You That BTC Must Need To Touch Around Reversal Zones To Move Back To Track which eventually happen in daily time frame, No big rocket science in been applied hear. Now If BTC Touch The TP1 or TP2 I am seeing BTC To Move Back to 60k to 75k within this year. & if BTC went back to 15k again than you might expect BTC into 13k to 7k Zone. Now, In short term perspective BTC must soon or later 100% touches 18K to 19K Zone again in coming days.
CME:BTC1!
by fahadaneeb
BTC is at make or break area$BTC had a MONSTER rally today. Was expecting some sort of bounce, why we bought Friday, but not a move like we got today. This was AMAZING & to top it off it was accompanies by VOLUME. Today wasn't the heaviest of days but VERY GOOD & more than good enough. If it is going to BREAK the bear it must do it SOON, fast. Like how #BTC is holding atm. RSI broke downtrend. Lots of good things for #bitcoin atm. What we need to keep it going is another GOOD VOLUME BUYING day. #ETH looks very GOOD. Bonues: To make things better Jim Cramer is saying to sell. If there is a contrarian indicator it is him :D
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$BTC showing signs of strength amid recent weakness$BTC volume we're seeing here is IMPORTANT. Yes, Monday adds more volume because Futures begin trading Sunday night. Nevertheless, these are mostly BUYS and the volume is GOOD. Last week, Thursday I believe, we spoke on beginning to nibble with cash and Friday we ended up using it all on dips we saw. We also spoke on many #altcoins @ support levels and showing reversals. This was good risk reward. The Gap up is the 2nd #BTC has shown since Jan & it is in the same area. This is a good sign for SUPPORT. Contrary to popular belief gaps are NOT ALWAYS filled. They have a tendency but they are not 100%. Strength here is a good sign amid recent weakness (see bearish crossover recently) Overall we're keeping tight leashes & remain cautious bull on #bitcoin, which SHOULD bare well for #altcoin.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Now what $BTC?The bull case is not done for #Bitcoin but it has been hit hard this last week. Long ago we mentioned that #btc could pull back a significant amount and still form a bottoming process. The 18,500 area could serve as a right shoulder for an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern. If it can form this and break the neckline with good volume that was signify at the end of the bear. Doesn't mean we have to go there but that would be the worst case scenario. We could also form the shoulder in this area where the Gap was just filled. Time will tell. But a lot of damage has been done and it may take time to heal. A while ago we mentioned that the bear market was done but did notice that the RSI was very weak and the volume wasn't the best either. So why the call was premature noticing those two things were a key.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC