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MBT1! trade ideas

BTC: Crypto Staged a Strong Comeback in Q1CME: Micro Bitcoin ( CME:MBT1! ) and Micro ETH ( CME:MET1! ) In First Quarter 2023, Cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly amid turmoil in the financial markets. CME Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) gained $11,825 or +71% year-to-date. Micro ETH Futures (MET) gained $510 or +39% YTD. Bitcoin rallied amid the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. While US government came to the rescue and Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS, crypto prices did not fall back down. Gold, the traditional hedging asset, rallied in response to the SVB failure. Gold Futures (GC) recorded a YTD gain of +6.5%, while Silver Futures (SI) was down 3%. US Equity Market was mixed in Q1. Nasdaq 100 has the best performance. NQ futures recorded a YTD return of +18.5%. S&P 500 (ES) was up 5.5% only, while Russell 2000 (RTY) turned up merely 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.1%. What to Invest in a Flight-to-Safety The fact that Crypto becomes the biggest winner in a flight-to-safety is remarkable. Last year, as inflation was flying high and the Fed raised interest rates aggressively, investors flocked to the US dollar. Strong exchange rate and high yield make it a logical choice of safe investment. We had expected the economic slowdown to start from the housing market and the high-tech industry. However, we found cracking at the heart of economy, the US banking system. Systemic risk is a clear and present danger facing us today. Bank runs spread from midsize banks to investment bank. Panicked investors pull money out of banks and also dump bank stocks and debts. Credit default swaps skyrocket. In a new "Risk-Off" mode, investors abandoned fiat money and moved their asset into cryptocurrencies. For the first time, dollar is being viewed as a risky asset. This may be a game changer long-awaited by the crypto industry. Crypto: A Separate Set of Risks Last year, the entire crypto market lost $1.4 trillion as BTC fell from $67K to $16K. Big event risks include the failure of stable coin terraUSD, the collapses of the No. 2 crypto Exchange FTX and crypto lender Silvergate. Outside of market risk, the biggest risk is a regulatory one. This week, US regulator Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charges Binance against its illegal operations. The CFTC has filed a civil enforcement action in the U.S. District Court of Illinois, charging Binance and three entities that operate the Binance platform with numerous violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations. The complaint charges that Binance operates a centralized digital asset trading platform through an intentionally opaque common enterprise. The defendants allegedly chose to knowingly disregard applicable provisions of the CEA while engaging in a calculated strategy of regulatory arbitrage to their commercial benefit. In its continuing litigation against the defendants, the agency seeks disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, permanent trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the CEA and CFTC regulations. The above illustrates the legal and regulatory risks faced by many crypto operators. Decentralization means that you are not protected by any government. Parking your Bitcoin at a crypto Exchange does not come with a $250K FDIC depository insurance. None of crypto Exchanges have been in existence for over a decade. Thus, their business models are not fully tested in a boom-and-bust cycle.. So counter-party risk is the key. Watch who you're doing business with very carefully. Short-term Investment Strategies "Buy-low-and-Sell-high" is a well-tested investment strategy. But spotting the bottom is very difficult in the crypto world. If you rushed in when BTC dropped from $67K to $50K, you would still lose half of your money a year later. Instead of HODL (“Hold On to your Dear Life”), short-term trades may work better for high-beta assets such as Bitcoin and Ether. CME Micro BTC futures (MBT) is useful for both bullish and bearish strategies. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $800. Today, BTC rallies by $1,064 to $28,393. If you purchased BTC in the spot market, you would realize a daily gain of 3.8%. If you own a long MBT position, the dollar gain is $106, corresponding to 1/10 of a BTC. The theoretical return would be 13.2% (=106/800), which is 2.5 times higher. Similarly, CME Micro ETH future (MET) has a contract notional of 1/10 of 1 ETH. Initial margin is $61. Today, ETH went up by $14 to $1,792, or +0.8% in the spot market. But a long Micro ETH futures position would gain 2.3% (=1.4/61), which is 1.9 times higher. Investing in the CME market, investors could rest-assured to be free from default risk and counter-party risk. In its 175-year history, there was never a case of clearing member default resulting in a loss of customer fund. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Will Bitcoin Climb or Collapse as Bank Chaos Subsides?Which way will Bitcoin break out of last week’s range? On screen I have highlighted the price range between $29,000 and $26,700, representing the high and low of the week-long ranging period. The price has flirted with a break to the downside, touching as low as $26,500, but a confident close below $27,000 is still to occur. Bitcoin surged in March as confidence in the global banking system was shaken with the fall of a few US regional banks and the Swiss giant Credit Suisse. As it stands, it appears that the risk of other banks going under is subsiding, which may also stifle the upside potential of bitcoin moving forward. The phycological level of $30,000 might be too lofty a goal for bulls now if a break to the upside does occur. Gold hitting $2,000 might be more likely at this point. Elsewhere in the crypto sphere, and perhaps applying some more pressure on the price of Bitcoin, The Commodity Futures and Trading Commission has filed a complaint against Binance and its Founder Changpeng Zhao, for allegedly violating US trading and derivatives laws. Binance and Zhao are being accused by the CTFC of operating an "inefficient compliance program" and deliberately violating the law. Zhao has tweeted that the CTFC’s allegations are "fake news”.
CME:BTC1!
by BlackBull_Markets
Gap Fills on BTCSo just something I was looking at and wondering why I haven’t really heard anyone else talking about lately. As you see price came back and perfectly filled the CME gap at 19k then took off bouncing from the 200 ma up to where we are currently stalled which happens to be another CME gap fill!! So my question is are we going to continue up and fill the final gap at the 35k range or come back down and retest our base and possibly form a good foundation for a bottom before we take of closer to the end of the year? Let me know what you all think
CME:BTC1!
by CryptoCainestrades
2
Winning Strategy for Smart Trading SMC theory SMC is not just a Forex trading strategy, but an entire philosophy about how the markets work. Basically, SMC states that market makers (i.e., banks, hedge funds, etc.) are manipulative entities, and that moreover, they are actively making life difficult for retail traders. According to SMC, as a retail trader, you should base your strategy on what is happening with the "smart money" (i.e., the money belonging to market makers). Indeed, you should try and pattern your trading off of how these market makers are trading. They are concerned with supply, demand, and market structure. So, as an SMC trader, that is also what you are looking at when making your own trade decisions. Where did SMC Forex trading come from? Smart Money Concepts originated with The Inner Circle Trader (ICT), which is a program offered by a trader named Michael J. Huddleston. ICT offers some free resources as well as paid Forex mentorship. SMC core concepts and terminology SMC sounds highly technical when you first start reading about it. You may find yourself scratching your head at the basic vocabulary. To help you out, here are explanations of some common terms used by SMC traders: Order blocks: This terminology is used to discuss supply and demand. Some SMC traders say that order blocks are a more "refined' concept than regular supply and demand, but others contest this claim. Breaker blocks and mitigation blocks: These terms refer to support and resistance. Fair value gaps: This term refers to an imbalance. There are a variety of different types of gaps, and they were all identified years ago. Some examples are common gaps, exhaustion gaps, breakaway gaps, and runaway gaps. You will discover that other SMC concepts also are familiar to you once you figure out what the fancy terminology is referencing. When analyzing the markets, SMC focuses a lot on "break of structure" in the market, or "BOS." Here is a chart illustrating breaks of structure. Every time price surpasses the previous high, there is break of structure. We then see a change of character (ChoCH) as price drops down past previously established lows. Controversies about Smart Money Concepts in Forex trading SMC is controversial for a few key reasons: The theory behind it is incorrect. SMC is not "trading like the banks." Even though it can work, it is not new. The flaws in the theory What is the flaw in the theory behind SMC? It comes back to what we mentioned earlier about market makers. SMC traders say that manipulations by "smart money" actors are why certain SMC patterns are forming. But SMC does not provide any evidence that these manipulations are occurring or are responsible for the patterns. There is little logic in declaring that smart money manipulations are creating the patterns. It is true that banks and other large players are what move the markets. But it is not true to say that these market makers are out to get retail traders and are actively conspiring to manipulate the markets. Instead, their role in the markets is to create liquidity. Simply put, market makers do not care about your existence. Retail traders are just not that significant in the grand scheme of things, even when you add them all together. Does this mean market manipulation is entirely a myth? No. It does happen, but not in the way that SMC describes. No different from regular retail trading SMC traders believe that they are trading like the market makers rather than trading like other retail traders, and that this gives them an edge that their fellow retail traders lack. In truth, SMC traders are trading exactly like their fellow retail traders. They are not trading "like the banks." New terms, old concepts Finally, all of the repackaging and fancy terminology is a source of irritation for a lot of traders. ICT has made a lot of money off of teaching traders SMC. There is nothing wrong with that per se, since they are teaching methods that can be useful. But some traders feel that presenting these old concepts as if they are brand new is disingenuous in some way. To add to that, having to learn all of those new terms adds a level of unnecessary complication to the entire thing. SMC does not so much reinvent the wheel as it simply rebrands the wheel, putting it in a fresh new package. It is still a wheel. It turns in the exact same way and can get you to the exact same destination. Why go to the trouble to learn a new language to discuss something with which you already are probably familiar? For most (though not all) traders, it is simply going to be easier to talk about support and resistance. Pros and cons of SMC Pros of SMC: Smart money concepts trading does seem to work for some traders. If it works for you, there is no reason not to use it. Being able to consistently grasp what price is doing and profit from its behavior is more important than knowing why price is moving the way it is. Price action has a decades-long history of producing results for many people across not just currencies, but other assets as well. Since SMC is repackaged price action, it does have a solid core. Some people find price action easier to understand when it is presented as SMC. While the theory that large institutions are targeting retail traders is dubious, it does seem plausible to suggest that larger institutions may sometimes go after smaller ones, generating some of what we are seeing. Liquidity grabs do exist, even if SMC is presenting them in a questionable framework. So, some of the theory elements of SMC may be viable, just not as SMC describes them. Cons of SMC: Some of the theory elements of SMC do not appear to make a lot of sense when you think logically about how irrelevant retail traders are to the big players. Believing wholeheartedly in everything SMC presents could result in misunderstanding market fundamentals. One can neither prove nor disprove the theories behind SMC. They are purely speculative, and only an insider would be able to produce concrete evidence in either direction. That means that no one can verify that SMC's model of reality is correct, but no one can 100% refute it either. All anyone can do is argue based on what they believe about what institutions do. Switching up all the terminology the way SMC does can make for an unnecessarily convoluted learning process for price action, especially if you already are familiar with the standard language of price action. It may also make it harder for you to share what you learn with others who speak the regular price action language. A lot of people are turned off by the elitist mystique surrounding SMC, and feel it is deceptive to sell old concepts as if they are new. Also, we are using the word "sell" here very literally. While there are a lot of free SMC resources, you will run into plenty of pay gates while trying to learn SMC. Should you trade using SMC? Smart Money Concepts trading would probably not be as popular as it is right now if some traders did not find it intuitive. If you do like how SMC expresses its terminology and techniques, then by all means, go ahead and give it a try. Just be aware that the strategy is a repackaged form of good old-fashioned price action trading, and that you are doing the same thing as many other retail traders. But there is nothing wrong with that, because good old-fashioned price action trading is a tried and true method that has been profitable for many traders for decades. If the strange terminology of SMC confuses you or you are looking for more free resources (there are paywalls for many SMC programs), just study price action. You will be learning the same thing anyway.
CME:BTC1!Education
by GoldenEngine
9
BTC - CME ChartCME Gap: These are price windows which are created due to price fluctuations on weekends where CME is closed but Bitcoin is still active. We had 2 major unfilled gaps from the 2022 down trend. This week one of those gaps from 2022 June is now filled while the gap from May is still pending.  Also there was a minor gap created in December which was cleared this month. Sametime a new gap is created in February within price ranges of 20300 to 21200.  So currently we have a bullish gap and a bearish gap. Based on the current state I have more weightage on the bearish gap to be filled first.  As we reach the month end where CME expiry will occur this month for both monthly and quarterly futures and options.  I'm more in to bearish sentiment at this moment. 
CME:BTC1!Short
by cryptochi1986
$BTC struggling to break 28kish, expected What about altcoins?#Bitcoin struggling in this area. $BTC can still hang around here for a bit but we believe it will break through some time this year. Likely sooner rather than later. There's not much to say here on #BTC. Would keep a close eye on volume as that will, as usual, dictate what direction we'll see in the short term. We close this month around here, even lil lower, the RSI for the month shows more indication of more upside coming. ------- #Altcoins have been kind of dead recently. TOTAL 3 is struggling here because you have a ton of resistance on daily downtrend (being broken atm), Major Resistance around 400B, and the 10 EMA monthly moving avg is right above. When/If this breaks it should be party time. Till then Big Daddy, Bitcoin is leading.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
first CME region has been filled.There could be drop later or soon .. to fill next CME which i already shared. f you want to make profits just click on the links below and you will understand how we are making profits. although we are doing challange of converting $100 to $1Milllion. and we are almost 3x up in just 20 days. if you want to participate contact us. Comment to join our platform for 98% of accuracy. thankyou for playing. now. I'll wait for you guys to contact us to participate in challange.
CME:BTC1!Short
by qazitauqeer90