BTC Bitcoin Futures
tight consolidation after a breakout of Feb Value Area
Price Target 61,560 ,+18% to go to upside VPOC using the MarketWebs technical trading system
MBT1! trade ideas
$BTC extreme bullish sentiment & most orderly movementAs stated before, there's extreme bullishness on $BTC.
Every influencer's excited & media is plastering a bull take.
They can be right but more often than not they are wrong and can be used as a contrarian indicator.
Things to notice:
#BTC shorts are @ their LOWEST in a year!
Money Flow is lessening.
Decent sell volume at the moment.
----------------------
Let's look at weekly data, chart shown.
Weekly CRYPTOCAP:BTC shows that indicators are weakening.
(Indicators aren't primary means of trading but are used for HELP)
Let's compare #BTC to other time periods, shall we?
Are we more like early or late 21?
This is most orderly run since the introduction of derivatives.
Looks almost like an Index, interesting, sarcasm.
#Bitcoin #bitcoinhalving #ETF
Target for BTC in this Bull RunThis was done back in mid 2023. This is the 5 wave structure of elliot wave on BTC.
Currently BTC is in 5th Wave which targets the level of 162K
$BTC bullishness is really taking offAm seeing a ton of bullishness on CRYPTOCAP:BTC at the moment.
Extreme bullishness is okay but one should always take caution.
Keep in mind that volume has NOT been optimal but there was a bump not long ago. We're not changing anything and still long #crypto at the moment.
Let's see how #BTC reacts the next few days. Would like to buy some more on a dip.
BTC Uncharted territory I spent some time analyzing the post-ETF Bitcoin charts today and came up with some rough price predictions for the next 3 months. Currently the ETF inflows lead to a 2% increase in price per day, which is about $1000 per day. Most of the increase is taking place during the settlement period before US market opening.
It seems to me that you can trade that ‘market inefficiency’. More important, I believe you can predict this daily price increase by looking at the inflows that are announced a few hours before that.
At current prices inflows are 10-12 times of newly created BTC, meaning that people have to sell their BTC in order to fill the ETF orders. They will only do that at higher prices, because hardly anybody who looks at this market would think BTC is peaking. Higher prices lead to more FOMO among ETF investors, leading to more demand and even higher prices.
Two other events that will happen in the next 3 months are important:
1) The halving of the BTC mining rewards in mid April. Right now 900 BTC are produced per day, but after that only 450 new coins are mined. This will add to the supply shock and will lead to even higher prices
2) Many financial advisors can only start selling a new ETF after 90 days of trading (to minimize the risk that an ETF they sell will fail), meaning by early May demand should start picking up even more.
What will this mean for the price? I think we are in uncharted territory here, but I believe an average increase of $1000 per trading day over the next weeks is very likely. After the 2 events above this could even be substantially higher. This means that unless there is a black swan event we will see a new all time high (> SWB:69K ) before the halving and we could possibly hit $100K in the next 2-3 months already.
A Bitcoin Bull Run?CME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ), Micro ETH Futures ( CME:MET1! )
This Monday, bitcoin jumped above $49,000 for the first time in a year, and quickly extended its gains and broke through the $50,000 level. By Wednesday, bitcoin shot up again, pushing above $52,000 in morning session.
In the past few months, the benchmark cryptocurrency has experienced a “Buying the Rumor and Selling the News” phenomenon. In anticipation of the SEC approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, bitcoin nearly doubled in a matter of just three months, rising from $24,830 in early September to $48,960 in mid-January.
On January 15th, when the SEC finally approved the listing of 11 bitcoin ETFs, a huge selloff followed. Bitcoin had gained 156% in 2023 and rose 16% further in January. Instead of riding higher with the good news, investors chose to sell and book profits. Bitcoin tumbled 21% from its recent peak and touched $38,530 on January 24th.
My recent trade idea, “BTC: Buy the Rumor and Sell the News”, observed three such occurrences in bitcoin’s brief history.
After the dust was settled, cyclical volatility gave way to secular growth. Economic fundamentals are at work here: when it comes to Bitcoin, there is finite supply and a growing demand. At the daily high of $52,079 on Wednesday, bitcoin has already bounced back 35% within a month.
Cathie Wood, whose ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF is among the 11 approved ETFs, predicted that Bitcoin prices would reach $600K by 2030. While this lofty price level may sound far-fetched now, I think it is entirely plausible for bitcoin to revisit its all-time-high of $68,982.20. It would not surprise me to see a new all-time high (ATH) record in the next few months.
Key Drivers for Bitcoin’s Long-term Rise
In my opinion, a secular long-term bull market for cryptocurrencies has already emerged. The case for rising bitcoin prices is supported by solid fundamental strength:
Firstly, there is a limited supply of bitcoins with a total cap of 21 million.
Currently, around 19 million bitcoins have been mined and are in circulation, leaving approximately 2 million left to be mined. This makes bitcoin superior to fiat currencies, whose supply could be increased by central banks, with or without limits.
Secondly, the demand for crypto investment could increase substantially.
With bitcoin now a SEC-regulated investment asset, the biggest hurdle for participation has been removed. Investors may now buy spot bitcoin, bitcoin futures, bitcoin options, and bitcoin ETFs from their brokerage accounts and trade on regulated US Exchanges. Outstanding performance of both Bitcoin and Ethereum could speed up the asset rotation.
Thirdly, an excessive dollar supply could help raise bitcoin prices. This is an important point and deserves a thorough explanation.
The US Federal Government is currently running a budget deficit to the tune of $1.5-2.0 trillion a year. By borrowing, it is injecting vast amounts of new dollars into the financial system.
In boom time, these dollars will flow to businesses and households in the forms of new investment and new consumption. However, as the economy slows down and the cost of borrowing remains high, they are reluctant to incur more debt.
Commercial banks are left holding excessive cash in their books. Facing reduced loan interest income, they would seek to boost investment returns. As conservative investors, banks typically put money in Treasury bonds, high-grade corporate bonds, and Blue-Chip stocks.
Now that Bitcoin is sanctioned by the SEC, banks could legally invest in the spot ETFs offered by top-rated asset managers. Although the bank purchases bitcoin indirectly through an ETF, it would pass through to spot bitcoin. With the sheer size of bank assets, a small percentage of asset allocation could increase bitcoin demand substantially.
Trading with Micro BTC and ETH Futures
In my opinion, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are set up for a long-term marathon bull run. Just like commercial banks, individual investors could consider adding Bitcoin and Ethereum (or the spot ETFs) to their long-term investment portfolio.
Speculative traders share my view. “Leveraged Funds” had total long positions of 7,120 on bitcoin futures, vs. 3,147 short positions, in the week of February 6th, according to the Commitment of Trader (COT) report published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The 2.3-to-1 long/short ratio indicates bullish sentiment.
There is a problem: with bitcoin already tripling in prices, the price increases going forward do not offer the same level of return dollar-for-dollar. Hypothetically, if bitcoin rises to SWB:69K from GETTEX:52K , the $17,000 gain would equal to 33% in return. If you bought bitcoin for $17K in December 2022, the same dollar gain would be 100% in return. To counter the effect of higher prices, investors could consider using leverage.
CME Micro BTC futures ( PSE:MBT ) provide leverage and capital efficiency. The contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $980. The June contract (MBTM4) was last quoted at $53,575. At current price there is a 5.5 times leverage built in the contract, which is the ratio of 5,357.5 (1/10 of 1 BTC) divided by 980. If the futures price touches the previous ATH at approximately $69,000, a long futures position would gain $1,542 (= 6900-5358), and the return would be a 157% return, using the $980 margin as a cost base.
For a comparison, investing in 1/10 of a spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF would gain $1,700 (= 6900-5200), but the return would be 33% only (= 1700/5200), without the leverage.
Similarly, CME Micro Ether futures ( NYSE:MET ) also provide leverage and capital efficiency. The contract notional is 1/10 of 1 ETH. Initial margin is $62. The April contract (METJ4) was last quoted at $2,802. At the current price there is a 4.5 times leverage built in the contract, which is the ratio of 280 (1/10 of 1 ETH) divided by 62. If the futures price touches 3,500, a long futures position would gain $70 (= 350-280), and the return would be a 113% return, using the $62 margin as a cost base.
For a comparison, investing in 1/10 of a spot Ethereum would gain $75 (= 350-275), but the return would be 27% only (= 86/267), without the leverage.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Where is $ flowing into? Central Banks = Gold. Retail = $BTCGood Morning
Let's see how CRYPTOCAP:BTC handles this next resistance level. Currently it is above.
Assets, not #Dollars!
Where are can you put your hard earned $???
Into #equities with high PE's?
Into #commercialrealestate?
#BTC #Bitcoin
#GOLD & #Silver as well as they have stood the test of time.
Btc futures - sell at 53KFollowing the futures chart, move anticipated at 16k. Sell at 53K, buy back at target.
Bitcoin Next MoveCME:BTC1! CRYPTOCAP:BTC needs to hold 45.6k for bullish sentiment to challenge all time highs.
Currently CRYPTOCAP:BTC has broken GETTEX:52K and if a retest hold's at 48.5k this would be extremely bullish for Targets to 58k, 65k and ATH 69355.
While this is the larger picture, there are moves on smaller time frames allowing entry for trades or building positions. Should support zones not hold, shorting CRYPTOCAP:BTC to areas of value is an option but you need to be slick on entries via multi-time frame analysis.
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Always having Plan A and Plan B scenarios so we can react once the markets provide an opportunity to execute our edge.
If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
Extracting Arbitrage Yields In Bitcoin Carry TradeBitcoin is known as digital gold. It is treasured as an investment asset. Much like the famous yellow metal, bitcoin (“BTC”) does not offer income through dividends or interest. This poses a challenge for investors seeking regular cashflows and income.
One strategy that skilled investors use to turn BTC into an income generating asset is the cash and carry trade (“carry trade”).
This paper describes mechanics of carry trade and the attendant risks. It also highlights that the introduction of spot ETFs has created a secure infrastructure for harvesting carry yields using a regulated platforms such as the CME.
INTRODUCTION TO THE CARRY TRADE
The carry trade is an arbitrage strategy that benefits from the differences in futures and spot price of an asset. It is a delta neutral strategy. In other words, the returns are not price dependent once the carry trade is profitably set up.
To illustrate, consider the forward curve of CME Bitcoin futures which shows futures prices at different expiries.
Bitcoin futures with later expiries trade at a premium to near term ones and this type of market structure is referred to as contango.
In a trade that involves simultaneous acquisition of BTC and selling a BTC futures contract expiring later, investors can lock in the price difference as profits. Once established, this trade’s profit is unaffected by price moves enabling investors to harvest carry yield at the futures expiry.
The pay-off from this trade is driven by convergence of futures and spot prices. Convergence is the movement of a futures price closer to spot price at expiry. Once futures and spot price are sufficiently close, the trade can be unwound by simultaneously exiting both positions.
For CME Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin futures, convergence occurs because the futures contracts settle to a robust price benchmark known as the CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (“BRR”) which includes price quotes from major crypto exchanges.
BTC FUTURES CONTANGO TERM STRUCTURE AND PREVALANCE OF CARRY TRADE
Carry trades can be executed in both contango and backwardation term structures. While the carry trade can technically be executed in backwardation (where later expiries are cheaper), doing so involves high borrowing costs for the short spot leg. Hence, BTC’s contango term structure is beneficial for extracting arbitrage yields from carry trade.
Factors driving BTC contango term structure are multi-faceted. Simply put, during bull runs, investors anticipate higher prices for contracts maturing later. Furthermore, high demand for spot BTC and limited availability on the sell-side can exacerbate forward premiums.
Additional factors resulting in contango include cost of funds, insurance premiums, and custodial charges that are higher for later expiries, and a convenience yield of holding BTC. Convenience yield represents returns from holding BTC through activities such as lending.
BTC futures term structure has shown both contango and backwardation during different periods. Current term structure indicates bullish sentiment fuelled by spot BTC approval in January and the next halving event expected in April.
Term structure shifts can result in outsized returns at times. Notably, the switch from contango to backwardation can offer outsized returns on the carry trade, exceeding the difference between futures and spot price as observed at trade inception.
The carry trade has been a popular strategy, especially during periods of significant volatility and during bull markets when BTC contango structure widens. Even sell-offs provide compelling trading opportunities as the carry trade is directionally neutral. Carry trades have lower risk relative to an outright long position.
For reference , during 2021, LedgerPrime’s quant fund was able to beat BTC returns using, among others, the carry trade during a large selloff.
RISKS OF THE CARRY TRADE
The carry trade neutralises market risk but is still subject to counterparty risks and liquidity risks when spreads diverge and tear.
Largest risk factors associated with the carry trade is the counterparty risk . While CME futures are regulated by the CFTC, spot crypto exchanges are not subject to similar regulations. This poses significant risk for investors if they opt to hold their BTC on such unregulated exchanges.
Such risks arising from trading on unregulated platforms is most exemplified by the collapse of FTX. FTX was a popular exchange for executing carry trades as it offered dated futures, perps, and spot BTC on its platform. The dramatic collapse of FTX highlighted counterparty risk as a major concern.
Self-custody of spot BTC has its own risks including transfer costs and cybersecurity risks.
Another risk factor is early liquidation. As the futures leg of the trade is a short position, where prices rally sharply, the short position may be at risk of liquidation despite a proportional gain on the long leg of the carry trade.
SPOT BTC ETF HELPS REDUCE COUNTERPARTY RISKS
The rollout of spot BTC ETFs reduces counterparty risk. Unlike unregulated crypto exchanges, spot ETFs are regulated by the SEC, listed on regulated exchanges with investor protection.
With both the futures and spot leg now available through regulated platforms, investors have access to secure infrastructure for executing the carry trade.
The table below provides details of approved spot ETFs including AUM, expense ratio, and the benchmark index.
Carry trade using spot ETFs with CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (CME BRR) enables greater precision in extracting arbitrage yields. Seven of the eleven approved spot BTC ETFs use the CME BRR.
Still, there are downside to using spot ETFs for long BTC exposure in carry trades. For one, ETFs are only tradeable during market hours (9:30AM to 4:00PM US Eastern Time not including extended trading hours) whereas cryptocurrency exchanges and even CME futures trade for longer hours.
Moreover, expense ratios and premium/discount to NAV for ETFs will erode already thin profits. Spot BTC ETFs are currently offering discounts on expense ratio for a fixed period.
CARRY TRADE ILLUSTRATION
To illustrate a hypothetical carry trade, consider the following setup comprising long BITB ETF and short CME Bitcoin futures (BTCH2024).
BITB references the same CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate as CME futures and its premium/discount of -0.07% (as of 09/Feb) offers a beneficial entry point for this trade. Moreover, the premium/discount on the ETF has been tight.
Source: Bitwise
The premium for MBTH2024 over spot reference rate as of close on 9/Feb was 2.83%. Taking seven basis point discount to NAV, this results in total return of 2.90% over 48 days resulting in an annualized arbitrage return of 22%.
As the trade is required to be directionally neutral, notional value on both legs needs to be balanced. CME Micro Bitcoin futures (“MBT”) offers exposure to 0.1 BTC.
Notional on short BTCH2024 futures leg: 0.1 BTC
As of close 09/Feb,
BITB market price: USD 25.95
CME CF Benchmark BTC price: USD 47,614
Each share of BITB offers exposure to 0.000545 BTC
184 shares of BITB provide exposure to 0.000545 x 184 = 0.100280 BTC
The payoff from the trade consisting of 184 x long BITB and 1 x short MBTH2024 would be 2.9% of notional value = 2.9% x (0.1 x 47,614 USD/BTC) = USD 138.
The trade requires margin of USD 980 on the short futures leg and notional of USD 4,775 on the long leg for a total capital requirement of USD 5,755 (as of Feb 2023) which translates into ROI of 2.4%.
Still, as mentioned, liquidation risk remains a concern. Hence, it is prudent to maintain higher margin on the short futures leg which would lower the ROI.
Note that timing this trade better can improve the odds and in case Bitcoin’s term structure switches from contango to backwardation, payoff would be higher.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Bitcoin - CMEAttention! 🚨
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BTC/USDT - Short. It is in "Golden Porcket" areaI wouldn't too excited in here, all these ETF drama will end and late comers will be exit liquidity as usual. Better hedge my longs on my alts with BTC short. We should understand that all of these ETF buys from big funds are just a show and real smart money will not buy in these levels. We have CME gap left around $20k area so we will probably visit there.
🔒Bitcoin Breakout:The 5 Benefits Of Using Bitcoin 💰💸Bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency, offers several benefits that have contributed to its popularity and adoption. Here are five key advantages of using Bitcoin:
1. Decentralization and Security:
Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network, meaning it is not controlled by any single government, institution, or individual. This decentralization reduces the risk of censorship, government interference, or manipulation. The use of blockchain technology ensures the security of transactions through cryptographic techniques, making it highly resistant to fraud and hacking.
2. Global Accessibility:
Bitcoin transactions can be conducted globally, providing financial services to people who may not have access to traditional banking systems. Anyone with an internet connection and a compatible device can send and receive Bitcoin, promoting financial inclusion and accessibility to a borderless financial system.
3. Limited Supply and Deflationary Nature:
Bitcoin has a capped supply of 21 million coins, creating scarcity and limiting inflationary pressures. This fixed supply is programmed into its protocol, making it resistant to manipulation by governments or central banks. This scarcity is often cited as a feature that can potentially preserve the value of Bitcoin over time.
4. Reduced Transaction Costs:
Bitcoin transactions typically have lower fees compared to traditional financial systems, especially for international transfers. Traditional banking and payment systems may involve intermediary banks, currency conversion fees, and transaction delays, which can be mitigated by using Bitcoin for peer-to-peer transactions.
5. Financial Privacy:
While Bitcoin transactions are recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, they are pseudonymous and do not directly reveal the identities of the parties involved. Users have greater control over their financial information, reducing the risk of identity theft and protecting their privacy compared to traditional banking systems where personal information is often required for transactions.
It's important to note that while Bitcoin offers these advantages, it also faces challenges and criticisms, such as price volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and environmental concerns related to energy consumption in the mining process. Individuals should carefully consider these factors and conduct thorough research before engaging in Bitcoin transactions.
Disclaimer:
The information provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice.
Cryptocurrency investments, including Bitcoin, carry inherent risks, and individuals should conduct their own research and seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and the value of cryptocurrencies can fluctuate significantly. The user is solely responsible for any actions or decisions made based on the information provided.
Bitcoin2.12.24 Bitcoin has had a very bullish Wing going higher and I explained that in the video. But I would be looking for some sellers and a correction lower. If you're a buy and hold kind of trader I could understand why you would hold on to your position.
Mother of all Inverse Head and Shoulders-CMEDaily Candle closed above neckline on inverse head and shoulders.
To calculate Price Target
Height of head to neckline (Price Difference) x 2 = Price Target
Set stop loss accordingly :)
What does the arrival of Spot Bitcoin ETFs mean for US investorsAfter a long journey, the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved in the United States of America. This is the latest step on the path to bitcoin, and digital assets more generally, becoming mainstream. To help clarify how this chain of events unfolded, and where the story could go next, this is an edited summary of a discussion with Ryan Louvar, Chief Legal Officer at WisdomTree, which took place in full on the Crypto Clarified podcast1.
The main points covered were:
The main obstacles that had to be overcome for approval
The reasons why a spot bitcoin ETF is a positive for investors and digital assets’ place in a portfolio as a diversifier
What to expect in terms of uptake over different timeframes
What to expect in the near future as the asset class becomes more mainstream
Benjamin Dean (BD): Ryan, happy bitcoin spot ETF effective date to you.
Ryan Louvar (RL): It’s a super exciting day. Even going back six months ago, I can’t say I was on the optimist side. But seeing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) grant an effective registration statement to allow bitcoin ETFs, as well as the listings, is great.
Obstacles to overcome
BD: What were those final obstacles that had to be overcome and how have almost a dozen different issuers had their applications approved and become effective?
RL: I was on a panel at Bitcoin 2021 with a couple of other ETF issuers. We were asked to predict if we thought that 2021 would be the year. There was some optimism because the new chairman of the SEC, Gary Gensler, had spoken at MIT about this topic. However, there were hurdles before through that prior SEC administration. I said that there was a decent chance 2021 would be the year. But we have a new SEC administration now, and the similar denials continued. The rationale was that there just aren’t enough protective mechanisms in place to create a market that would be resistant to fraud and manipulation. Ultimately, the focus was on the spot bitcoin market, and the SEC said there needs to be a regulated spot bitcoin market of sufficient size to be able to trade. This was really against historical precedent because if you think about other spot markets like gold in particular, those ETFs had been approved and there isn’t a regulated gold market, certainly not one overseen by the SEC, and not one as had been described by the SEC as a requirement.
A watershed moment occurred when the SEC allowed futures ETFs, including bitcoin futures ETFs. They allowed a percentage of the underlying exposure to be futures and then allowed 100% futures exposure. Even at that point, WisdomTree was the first ETF to have any bitcoin futures exposure, with under 5% in one of our US-listed ETFs. The thought was that we were right there, almost at the finish line to then have a spot ETF. We chose at the time to have limited exposure because we thought that it had the potential to be a diversifier in a portfolio.
We chose not to launch a 100% bitcoin futures product just because of the potential issues in a 100% bitcoin futures product, such as contango and not tracking the price of bitcoin. We were very steadfast in our belief that a spot bitcoin product was the best execution for investors seeking exposure to the spot price of bitcoin. We leveraged our experience in Europe where we have a successful crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) range including a spot bitcoin ETP. There was really no action from the SEC until they got sued by Grayscale. There was a lawsuit from Grayscale, and they said that the SEC’s decision here, the denials, were just arbitrary and capricious. A court agreed with them.
It’s not often that the SEC loses. The court made it possible for the SEC to essentially include additional information for their decision. Based upon the past ten years, I thought that the SEC would continue to deny an approval and produce additional reasons for it. Ultimately, they had until 10 January to make that decision. Going back just three months ago, it wasn’t clear what path the SEC was going to take. It only became clear once the SEC started to comment on the prospectuses after a few years of silence, that cleared the way for progress. Then you saw ETF issuers filing updated S-1 type of registration statements that include the prospectus. This was really a couple of months ago.
Then you saw a flurry of activity from the regulatory side, updated prospectuses every couple of weeks, then updated prospectuses every couple of days, to now, we are launching this morning. Yes, that’s the history, it’s hard to believe. It’s really been truly historic. I mean, just the historical, call it a roller coaster ride.
Today we’re excited to be an issuer launching a spot bitcoin ETF, but it’s also historic to have all the other issuers launching as well. Our experience in ETFs both in Europe and digital assets is going to be a differentiator for us. It will be an interesting few months for sure.
Role in a portfolio as a potential diversifier
BD: Do you have any views or thoughts around how one should conceive the coming days, months, and years? What does success look like?
RL: If we look back on the birth of the US ETF industry with the SPDR, it took a couple of years for the SPDR to really take off and gain traction. Now it’s over 20 years old, and I think it’s over $300 billion at this point. I think we’ll see the same with bitcoin, in taking time to fully gain traction. Going back a couple of years, financial advisors told us they have clients who’d like to have at least a portion of their portfolio in an asset that can serve as a diversifier. It’s got to be the right client as bitcoin is a volatile asset, so there’s risk there.
Bitcoin can certainly serve its place in the right client’s portfolio. Those advisors will now be trying to work with their clients to understand the full financial picture. Their client might say, “By the way, I have bitcoin as well and it’s sitting in my personal wallets or on this third-party platform or wherever.” So, really, by having the vehicle that's suited to many investors in the ETF, it will really help from a financial advisory standpoint as well as a general investor standpoint to have that access.
The other thing is the transparency. ETFs have to disclose their holdings, so the amount of bitcoin a spot ETF holds will be available on the issuer website every day. Holding bitcoin in your own wallet can have some merit for a lot of people, but many don’t understand that mechanism or don’t want to. An ETF is a wrapper they do understand, and it comes with traditional third-party oversight from a trusted organisation like WisdomTree. It’s bringing a lot to the table but like any new asset, I think it’s going to take time for the marketplace to really absorb it. Certainly, a lot of the traditional ETF platforms are going to have to conduct diligence. A lot of that requires some track record, six months in some cases for some assets.
I think there will be demand, but it’s a journey. Today’s just the beginning. It’s not dissimilar to a floating rate Treasury ETF. Treasuries are renowned for being plain vanilla, but that took a little while to gain a bit of traction. Bitcoin is a very different asset to treasuries in terms of risk profile, but it can potentially have its place.
What could uptake look like in the near term?
BD: It’s an interesting moment in the United States because the couple of years really, have been negative and so acrimonious. You go to Asia or Latin America and people don’t have the same hangups. But in the US, it has been different.
RL: I was surprised when I travelled to many Asian countries over the summer and saw that bitcoin is widely available and used as a currency. Here in the US, being US-centric, we sometimes lose that perspective. We’re getting used to inflation in the US but not hyperinflation. So, it’s a great point that we don’t see in the US much, so it surprised me during my travels abroad.
Where does the digital asset industry go from here
BD: Looking at the US, what does this round of approvals mean for the digital asset industry? What do you see coming forward?
RL: I think the next turning point is Ether, the second largest cryptocurrency. There are now ETFs that hold Ethereum futures. So, if you think about the history, ETFs were first allowed by the SEC to hold bitcoin futures and then some months later, Ether futures. I do think those will be the next that might get attention.
To me, the biggest thing is that bitcoin and digital assets more broadly are being talked about as investable assets. For us at WisdomTree it’s important because we’re not only focused on ETFs, which has been our historical focus, we’re also bringing a direct-to-retail platform to investors in the US. Right now, they can directly access bitcoin via an app on their phone. They can directly access Ether, SEC-registered blockchain-enabled mutual funds and work with those in one portfolio.
So, I think having these avenues and bringing more attention to the asset class is only going to put a spotlight on how investors might be able to think about this new asset class and bitcoin in particular.
Sources
1 open.spotify.com
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
🅱️ Lower High Daily TF Confirmed | Last Chance!Today Bitcoin closed the day at 47,770, which is the highest close (moving up) since March 2022, almost two years ago.
➖ The daily session wicked to hit as high as 48,505 —February 9, 2024.
➖ January 11, 2024 —Bitcoin peaked at 49,435 on a wick, with the session closing at 46,350.
I will not go into all the details but the dynamic between Bitcoin's price, the trading volume and RSI all point toward the end of this current move.
We can refer to this type of move in several ways: A "dead-cat-bounce," a "pull-back," wave b of a Zig-zag, etc.
The truth is the chart is screaming SHORT!
👉 The minimum target for this correction is set in the 30,000 - 32,000 price range.
👉 My projected bottom target goes much lower, between 22,000 and 26,000.
Remember to do your own research.
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$BTC stays strong, light volume thoughYesterday, CRYPTOCAP:BTC broke out of the symmetrical triangle we had spoken about two days ago
Today;
#BTC RSI is breaking out of downtrend it's been in.
Money flow pumped higher for #Bitcoin over last 2 days.
All this has happened while the volume is lower.
This can only mean one thing....... that is a lack of sellers.
We're still bullish on #crypto
48k breaks we should see 51k easily.
IMO - Buys on pullbacks.
BTC GAP ClosedAs already mentionned, btc was looking to close GAP. Now mission is completed and gap is closed
Gap closed on Bitcoin futures.With a candle that can be seen as a hammer, the price closed the gap by taking buy orders that were in the majority compared to sells, the candle is evident. In the related analysis I had written that it would be a very useful level, given that gaps often work well as supports or resistances, in this case it has become a very useful support, a perforation of the minimum of this candle would be a sign of weakness, but let's see better the context in which we find ourselves.
At this moment the price of btc is correcting in the medium term (2/3 months), therefore faced with a movement of approximately 88 days, a correction could occur (which has drawn a new high) linked to this cycle, of course if if the scenario changes, the session count would also change. So far the price is moving higher and there is no reason to think otherwise, so my bullish hypothesis or scenario continues to be useful in understanding where we are now. Possible even very violent increases could appear before long, we are at the end of this correction which has not yet given the final blow, the classic strong decline, unless it was this weekly candle which we can call hammer, the last decline of the correction. Now we need caution and above all trust in the trend.
