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MBT1! trade ideas

BTC - Institutional Accumulation Zone Signals Trend ReversalThe Bitcoin futures market is showing signs of a potential reversal short-term bearish impulse, with institutional traders accumulating positions in a newly identified accumulation zone. This zone, marked on the chart, represents an area where large buyers have been actively buying BTC futures contracts. The accumulation zone has been formed after a period of consolidation and sideways trading, following a sharp downtrend. The fact that institutional traders are accumulating in this zone suggests that they believe the downtrend is coming to an end and that a new uptrend is about to begin. Furthermore, we should observe a key resistance level marked on chart, which can adds further credence to the bullish outlook. This breakout would signal that the sellers have been exhausted and that the buyers are now in control. If the price action can continue to trade above the resistance level, it will be a strong indication that the downtrend has ended and that a new uptrend is underway. Traders should watch for a retest of the resistance level as a potential buying opportunity.
CME:BTC1!Long
by skyline-trader
$BTC seems tired, Weekly most overextended vs AveragesGOOD MORNING The CRYPTOCAP:BTC RSI is weakening further as it hits 74k. The closer it gets to 80-100k the more risk rises. #BTC is due for another correction/consolidation, IMO. #Bitcoin $ Flow is still decent so, IMO this is not the top. A)Shows RSI peaked & Selling begins to come in. EURONEXT:FLOW was NOT strong at all. B) Volume is light before picking up. CRYPTOCAP:BTC has Heavy Buying coming in. RSI hits the peak for this run. $ Flow stable & goes higher. C) #BTC buying subsides. RSI is further weakening. $ Flow still decent but keep in mind that this is LAGGING indicator. Weekly #Bitcoin is attracted to the Green Moving Avg. This is the most overextended it has been during this run. Needs rest imo
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin Broke New High – The Real Reasons Behind ItThe relationship between inflation and Bitcoin - they moves in tandem together, in the same direction. We saw Bitcoin has broken above its 2021 high, and it is likely to continue this trend. Many attribute the reason behind this rally to the approval of Bitcoin ETF by SEC in January of this year. While this approval serves an incentive, the core reason for this rally is the resilience of US inflation, meaning the inflation is still pretty stubborn, not coming down to the 2% target. Micro Bitcoin Futures & Options Ticker: MBT Minimum fluctuation: $5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50 BTIC: $1.00 per bitcoin = $0.10 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:BTC1!Education
by konhow
3
Comparative analysis. Fractals. Bitcoin and Nasdaq. Lagging.Logarithm. Assignment in three days. Formations "Bowl". There is a fractal similarity. The Nasdaq index is "ahead." The price is now at $15,237 after a nearly vertical strong price rise from the last consolidation of +18.21%. Note the price levels and their values on the CME. Bitcoin lags noticeably if this fractal structure is realized, but the % ratio targets are also an order of magnitude higher due to lower liquidity. BTC secondary trend (part). This bitcoin reversal zone was shown here. BTC/USD Secondary trend. Medium-term work. Pivot zone Save or increase, if you can trade successfully — your digital gold for “central banks” .
CME:BTC1!
by SpartaBTC
29
BTC to 90kBTC is showing remarkable resilience, holding steady above the $90K mark! 📈 It's a testament to the growing confidence in cryptocurrency markets. As we look ahead, experts predict a bullish trajectory, with BTC poised to surpass $90K and potentially reach new heights before the year's end. For traders with long positions, this presents a compelling opportunity to maintain confidence and hold onto your investments. The current market dynamics, coupled with positive sentiment and institutional adoption, suggest that BTC's journey to $90K and beyond is well within reach. Stay vigilant, stay informed, and stay optimistic! 🌟 #Bitcoin #Crypto #BullRun
CME:BTC1!Long
by ControllaFX
Bitcoin Futures Test Major Overhead Resistance! Following the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan 10th, BTC futures have rallied by more than 30%. Capital inflows have remained consistent in these ETFs, supporting higher Spot and Futures prices. The Decoupling: The new demand brought by the approval of the Spot ETFs have given both retail, and institutional investors the opportunity to add exposure to BTC in diversified investment portfolios. Prices have managed to go higher, despite higher treasury yields and real interest rates. Interest rate cut expectations have also been reduced, yet BTF futures have rallied. We are witnessing a decoupling of macroeconomic influences on BTC futures. Despite the fact that financial conditions are tighter, this speculative risk asset continues to rally. This is very supportive of prices in the near term, and a sign that demand for exposure to “digital gold” is real. Technicals: From a technical perspective, BTC futures gapped higher on 2/28. This will serve as major support in the near term, and prices could correct if we were to break and close below the gap. To break all time highs, we will need to break and close above the major overhead resistance level of $68,300-$69,500. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:BTC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next?Bitcoin is surging through expectations defying rally. Bitcoin (“BTC”) stands 22% higher over the last seven days. At its highest on 28 Feb 2024, BTC at USD 64k was 7% shy of its all-time-high. Recent bitcoin (“BTC”) performance harkens back to the euphoric bull runs. Market metrics signal more steam in store. This note discusses BTC’s recent rally and the road ahead. Anticipating short-term consolidation, this paper posits a short position in BTC/ETH ratio. BITCOIN RALLY HAS MORE IN STORE BTC is soaring fuelled by a range of tailwinds including strong demand from newly listed spot BTC ETFs, expected BTC halving, and a broader crypto market rally. 1. On-chain metrics do not signal significant profit taking (yet). Long-term holders have shown resilience despite significant gains in their holdings. Unrealized gains can be inferred by the market-value-to-realised-value (“MVRV”) indicator . MVRV assesses the market capitalization of BTC relative to its realized capitalization. It is determined by the price at which coins were last traded. Current MVRV of 2.5x indicates that the current BTC prices are >2.5x the price at which coins last moved. Despite this, BTC supply that has remained unmoved in the past one year has remained surprisingly resilient. Supply not moved in more than a year is down 3.75% over the past three months while prices have rallied 53% and MVRV has remained >2x. During previous cycles, particularly, when price peaked, MVRV was closer to three times, profit taking rates were high causing physical BTC to change hands rapidly. Current conditions do not match previous drawdowns suggesting potential for consolidation limiting further gains. Past performance does not necessarily imply future trends. Current exchange inflows are near record highs. A substantial portion of these is from short-term holders rather than long-term holders. Source: Glassnode 2. Continued spot buying as well as strong ETF demand. ETF demand shows no signs of slowing. Since putting our last paper on 26th Feb , an additional USD 2.3B of inflows have surged into spot ETFs. The pace of daily net flows to ETFs reached its highest level to date on 29th Feb. Demand remains so solid that NASDAQ:IBIT became the fastest ETF to reach USD 10 billion in AUM, just 51 days after launch. Fidelity’s AMEX:FBTC is not far behind at USD 6.2 billion in AUM. GBTC outflows have continued but the pace of inflows has not reached those seen at the beginning. In addition to fund flows, traded volumes have also remained elevated. BTC ETF volumes reached USD 11 billion on 28th Feb when prices soared above USD 60k for the first time. Volume on ETFs was particularly high when price rallied to its peak of USD 64k. 3. Funding rates and options smile . Funding rates on BTC perpetual futures signal elevated levels of speculative bullish demand. Funding rates are at levels observed during past bull runs. Options markets are also pricing in further upside after last week. BTC options volatility curve of BTCH24 (March 2024) has shown a far higher forward skew compared to prior week. This is indicative of higher price for calls (bullishness) compared to puts (bearishness). Source: QuikStrike Call/Put skew over the past month shows that skew for calls have started to expand once more following sharp rally above USD 60k on 28th Feb. Source: QuikStrike BITCOIN NOW FACES RESISTANCE Source: Coinglass BTC market suffered large liquidations following sharp rally on 28th Feb. Liquidations were spread across both longs and shorts, but overall short liquidations were higher. Across two more periods when price failed to surpass USD 63k definitively, long positions were liquidated once more. Still, since then liquidations have been much smaller than the peak. Price remains rangebound after crossing USD 60k. It faced resistance crossing past USD 65k and maintained support above USD 60k. BTC-ETH SPREAD LIKELY TO RALLY BTC rallies typically precede ETH rallies as described before . Since that paper was published, the spread is merely 4% lower. The spread remains elevated relative to historical levels. ETH has its unique tailwinds pushing it higher independent of BTC and the broader crypto market. Higher ETH burn due to greater on-chain activity is reducing ETH supply. Moreover, decisions on spot ETH ETFs are expected by May 2024. While the final decision remains uncertain, the approaching deadline is likely to fuel bullish sentiments. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP BTC price is sharply higher and close to its previous all-time-high. Tailwinds for BTC remain intact. It faces near-term price consolidation following the sharp rally. BTC price consolidation will favour ETH in BTC/ETH spread. ETH outperformed BTC during periods of consolidation in the past. A spread position comprising of long Micro ETH futures and short Micro BTC futures allows investors to gain exposure to this trend with a 50% margin offset. Micro ETH futures offer exposure to 0.1ETH and Micro BTC futures provide exposure to 0.1BTC. Thus, eighteen contracts of METH2024 are required to match notional for one contract of MBTH2024. The below hypothetical trade setup offers a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.8x: • Entry: 18.35 • Target: 16.87 • Stop Loss: 19.50 • Profit at Target: USD 5,255 (+8.1%) • Loss at Stop: USD 4,025 (-6.2%) • Reward to Risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBT1!Short
by mintdotfinance
Why all economists were wrong ? - Storytelling In the fading light of November 2022, a gloomy shadow loomed over the realm of economics. Pessimism blanketed the landscape like a heavy fog, stifling optimism and strangling hope. The majority of economists, revered for their astuteness and foresight, found themselves perplexed and uncertain. In a world where certainty had once reigned supreme, doubt had now taken its throne. Economists were not feeling optimistic. People who liked cryptocurrency waited for prices to drop to $10k before buying. Some bought when prices were low but sold cautiously when they reached 25K . Others decided to sell half of what they had to avoid losing too much money and keep cash for lower prices. On social media and TV shows, some economists were saying scary things like there might be a war or prices might go up too much , scaring people even more. Meanwhile, accumulation quietly began as the market lacked steam. Towards the end of 2023, prices suddenly went up a lot. Even then, some people thought it was just a small correction and that the fall was near. But as prices kept going up, more and more people started feeling hopeful about cryptocurrency. And so, the cycle repeated itself, a timeless dance between fear and greed, uncertainty and hope. For in the ever-shifting sands of the economic landscape, one thing remained certain: the only constant was change itself. And in the end, it was not the economists who were proven wrong, but rather the limitations of human perception and understanding.
CME:BTC1!
by Monstralian
🅱️ Bitcoin CME Futures 1h: Bear Volume ($29,845 Next)When Bitcoin produced the highest volume in months on 9-Jan. 2024, on the 1h timeframe, it signaled the start of a strong retrace. The highest volume in months came in 9-Jan. but the highest this year came in 11-Jan. 2024. ➖ Bitcoin moved from a high of 47,460 to a low of 38,540, a 22% drop. On the 28th of February 2024 at 13:00 Bitcoin produced the highest bearish volume bar on the 1h timeframe since 8-November 2022. Making this session the most bearish in years. There is another high bear volume session only a few hours later that is only matched by 3-4 sessions in a period of almost two years. As soon as this strong bear pressure came in, price action patterns changed completely and the more than one month long rising trend behaviour changed. This signal is telling me that Bitcoin's strong rise is coming to an end. 👉 The correction low should end between the 25,640 to 34,050 price range. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
CME:BTC1!Short
by AlanSantana
9