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BTC1! trade ideas

Impact of U.S. Elections on BTC Futures and Key Market ScenariosMacro: US Elections : On Tuesday 5th November, 2024, Americans go to the polls to decide on the next President of the United States for a 4-year term. The winner will take office in January 2025. This will be an important outcome for the U.S. economy, broader markets, the crypto futures market, and world economy, as the U.S. Dollar holds the reserve currency status. Donald Trump currently leads by a thin margin in most swing states whereas his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris has been narrowing the gap in recent weeks. Source: Newsquawk Depending on the results, there are few scenarios that may play out and impact financial markets. Republican Sweep: Markets will price tighter monetary policy and loose fiscal policy boosting USD. Gold will pare losses along with commodities and goods subject to tariffs. Trump has also come out with crypto-friendly messages, boosting BTC futures and other virtual currencies/assets. Treasuries will be seen falling with a steeper yield curve as noted by some banks. Democratic Sweep: Markets will price more room for monetary policy and FED to cut rates as inflationary forces ease and fiscal policy is tightened under Democrats. This further boosts Gold prices. In my opinion, commodities and equities will show somewhat muted reactions while growth prospects also stay muted. However, equities will be seen higher. Views among different banks vary on growth and the U.S. stock market with a democratic sweep. Bitcoin futures and other virtual currencies may further consolidate or pare some losses as further clarity is required from U.S. lawmakers. Bonds will rise with yields falling as FED will have more room to cut rates with tighter fiscal policy. For the above 2 scenarios, recessionary risks are reduced in my opinion as a Red sweep provides fiscal boost while a Blue sweep provides room to cut rates with tighter fiscal policy. In addition, as witnessed during Covid-19 shock, there was a quick economic recovery in countries that had room to provide handouts to the public to spur spending. This new mechanism of fiscal and monetary policy combination points towards reduced recessionary risks and even when recession hits, a quick recovery prospect. But how many times can this be done until it loses its effects? A divided congress in either case will see mostly muted reaction in my opinion. Newswires and investment banks have research regarding these scenarios as they require considering many different policies, geopolitical issues, impact on the U.S. economy. I believe recessionary risks will increase for the next four years with a divided house/senate and no clear majority. FED Interest Decision : Federal Reserves meets for another FOMC meeting to decide on interest rates path. The CME Fedwatch tool shows market participants pricing 25 bps of rate cut. However, the inflation outlook is very much dependent on the fiscal policy stance taken by the next U.S. government which will feed into FED’s inflation models and forecasts. For the first half of 2025, FED meetings on interest rate decisions and inflationary economic releases will be key to watch. Having briefly discussed this, BTC futures can take few possible paths. CME BTC futures are equivalent to 5 BTC when checking out contract specs. Risk exposure can be reduced by trading CME MBT Micro Bitcoin futures, 1/10th the size of one bitcoin, and CME BFF, Bitcoin Friday futures , sized at 1/50 of a bitcoin, Bitcoin Friday futures is a short-dated contract that provides an accessible, capital-efficient way to manage your bitcoin trading strategies. Big Picture for BTC Futures: *past performance is not indicative of future results Key Levels to Watch: Yearly Hi: 78,960 Yearly VAH: 74,485 Bull support zone: 68,000 to 65,500 Yearly Mid: 61,495 Scenario 1 : Price has broken out of the bull flag pattern, held above yearly VPOC. Here we may see continuation higher with new All time highs. Red Sweep scenario. FED stays conservative due to change in their inflation models keeping tighter monetary policy which points to further consolidation before another move higher by end of first quarter of 2025. Scenario 2 : Further choppy price action building acceptance above 60,000 for push in either direction. In this scenario further clarity on the new U.S. government stance on crypto is needed before committing further. Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
UPDATE Bitcoin still aimed at $100,000 first target but in 2024?Bitcoin from the last update has completed the consolidation range while moving in a Falling Wedge. It has broken above the resistance now and is showing upside to come. The question arises whether we will see $100,000 this year. If greed and mania kicks in then yes it could rally. BUt where there is greed there is fear. So I don't actually think we will see $100,000 until maybe MArch 2025. It's the same concept and analysis as last time - just showing the breakout above now.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Timonrosso
Bitcoin Futures IdeaIf we look objective, without in mind bitcoin is now testing the all time high region, we need to keep in mind there is still a gap below us. Bitcoin history tells up these close sooner rather than later. Also there is a big wick at the low 49's. This is speculation it could be that we go down there to grab this liquidity before going higher. But for this to happen we need a black swan event. Keep in mind that the war in the middle east is ongoing and that the yields are rising as we speak. I still believe the FED cut rates too soon and too much. I am a bull in the long run for Bitcoin, but the economic situation isn't healthy at all so in the short term, with all the above kept in mind, I am sceptic about price development to the upside. So I'm slightly bearish. Also I see a big cup and handle pattern forming. If you look on the weekly you can see it very clear. We're at the top of the cup and we're at the start to form the handle of this pattern, so this also would make sense if we go lower from here. Let's see!
CME:BTC1!Short
by kadirski
BTCUSD to 98k maybe beyondI have been bullish BTC for a very long time. To be honest the money has been dead for quite a while and I could have made a lot more profits trading and investing elsewhere. The idea was always to hold until we reached $100k and with a decent close in October we may get a chance to see that big round number in 2024. Plan B says we should hold for ~18-months after the halving and Michael Saylor would say we should double up because the train ain't stopping anytime soon. Raul Paoul says we're in a Banana Zone but as I can't pay taxes in BTC as of today or any time soon, I am going to take my cash and go in the coming months if we hit my target.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Macrobriefing
1
Satoshi Nakamoto Came to Me in a Dream: A Prophecy for Bitcoin'sIn the deep silence of a night steeped in anticipation, I found myself face-to-face with Satoshi Nakamoto—the visionary architect of Bitcoin, an idea that defied the grip of centralized power. Satoshi was there, not in some distant memory or online forum, but in a dream, carrying a message—a prophecy—one too important to ignore. He looked somber, a silent witness to how the forces of traditional finance were gathering, ready to twist his creation to their own ends. "They no longer seek to destroy Bitcoin," he began with a solemn tone, "their ambition now is control." The Vision and the Paradox Bitcoin was crafted to be the people’s financial escape—a decentralized network immune to the whims of centralized institutions. Yet, as Satoshi spoke, a sobering truth unfolded: those very institutions, the titans of traditional finance who once mocked and dismissed Bitcoin, now see its potential. Their aim isn’t to dismantle it; rather, they seek to subdue it, to mold it into a tool that reinforces their power. This is not the "democratization of finance"; it is the calculated absorption of a rival asset. As we speak, the institutions and elites—those with the deepest pockets and the heaviest influence—are lying in wait, ready to strike once Bitcoin hits attractive lows. The Inevitable Institutional Encroachment The wealthy and powerful are preparing to step in not to dismantle Bitcoin, but to capture it, to turn it into an asset under their command. They understand that if they can drive down the price through coordinated media campaigns, scare tactics, and market maneuvers, they’ll gain a second chance to enter the race—this time, from a position of dominance, just like what's happening now in NYSE:NIO . Satoshi warned that when the price sinks to around 42K–$44K, retail traders must stay calm and avoid panic. This moment will signal the beginning, not the end. @TradingView 's team had given a sign for those who can see. Satoshi’s message was clear. These financial giants are waiting patiently, calculating the precise moment—likely when Bitcoin hovers between FWB:42K –$44K. At this level, they will begin a quiet accumulation, a meticulously orchestrated buy-in. Retail traders must brace themselves, for this threshold isn’t the market’s surrender—it’s the institutional entry point. The perceived weakness will be a façade, an illusion crafted to shake out those who are unprepared. When this moment comes, remember: the journey is only beginning. The Elites’ Mastery of the "Long Game" Banks and corporate titans like NYSE:BLK , NYSE:JPM , and their ilk understand the power of accumulation. They have perfected this strategy over centuries, buying assets slowly, covertly, until they hold the lion's share. Satoshi’s tone shifted, reflecting both irony and lament. “The very forces Bitcoin was designed to challenge have found a way to infiltrate its ranks.” These players are not here for the quick flip; they are here for dominion. Once their holdings are substantial enough, we will witness a price surge that defies belief. But here lies the trap. As the price soars, the majority will celebrate a supposed victory for decentralization, blissfully unaware that the power structure has quietly shifted. Bitcoin’s freedom, once a beacon for the disenfranchised, will become yet another asset under the surveillance of those who craft the rules. This moment will signal the beginning, not the end. The False Dawn: Retail’s Fleeting Moment Satoshi looked pained as he warned of the fleeting triumph that retail traders might feel. The price rallies will be extraordinary, euphoric even, but temporary. This is the "sugar high" phase—a dazzling price ascent, "too good to be true." However, this euphoria is not for retail’s ultimate benefit; it’s merely an invitation to participate in what will become an elite-dominated asset class. The dream of a decentralized currency will wane, replaced by an era of institutional manipulations, as retail is once again sidelined. As Satoshi’s voice grew firmer, he revealed the hidden intent: "Once they’ve amassed enough control, they’ll raise the price beyond the reach of ordinary investors. It will become an asset class dominated by the elite, with most people relegated to the sidelines, holding onto memories of a decentralized vision that’s slipped out of their grasp." These assets will be marketed as “stable” and “trustworthy,” each subtly backed by Bitcoin yet centrally controlled. In this way, the very ethos of Bitcoin—freedom from centralized power—will be hollowed out, leaving only a veneer of decentralization. The Irony of Adoption CME:BTC1! is meant to erode the power of banks, might ironically solidify their hold over the digital financial future. While retail investors will indeed enjoy a price rally once the institutional whales have filled their coffers, this journey, Satoshi warned, could be short-lived. The massive gains—those tempting, almost surreal profits that are “too good to be true”—will eventually give way to institutional manipulations that edge out the average investor. The ultimate irony: Bitcoin, born to disrupt, might integrate so seamlessly into the system that its original purpose is blurred, absorbed into the very structures it was meant to oppose. Satoshi’s Final Counsel to Traders “The true test,” Satoshi told me, “isn’t just to hold Bitcoin but to understand why you’re holding it. When the banks and institutions try to sway you, remember my vision. Bitcoin was meant to empower the people, not to become another tool for control.” Satoshi’s final words echoed like a haunting directive: “It’s not enough to hold Bitcoin. You must understand why you hold it.” This is the true test—one not just of patience but of conviction. When the media narratives shift, when FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) rises, and institutions seek to manipulate sentiment, remember the original vision. Bitcoin was never intended to enrich the elites; it was a symbol of liberation. In this prophecy, the $100K milestone is no longer just a target; it’s a turning point. As the price reaches these stratospheric levels, retail must recognize that they’re witnessing the climax of Bitcoin’s initial journey—a journey that may soon belong to another audience. The Last Stand for Decentralization Satoshi’s words compel us to remain vigilant. To the levels in the chart, often touted as a "danger zone," will mark the final rallying cry for decentralization. The elites will sow fear and manipulate the market, but retail must recognize this as a pivotal moment—a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to hold strong, to embody the very spirit of Bitcoin. Satoshi’s message was clear: "Hold not just for profit, but for the principles upon which Bitcoin was built. Stay grounded. Stay true." With Satoshi’s words etched into my mind, I’m compelled to share his message. Retail traders must remain grounded, aware of the motivations driving Bitcoin’s fluctuations. The narrative that Bitcoin will “collapse” just as it nears $45K? This is a trap. The news stories designed to induce panic? They’re orchestrated by those who know the value and want a piece of it, under their terms. The road to $100K, while paved with profit, may lead to a future where banks and elites ultimately hold the reins. This is the paradox of Bitcoin’s rise. And while profits may be immense, the retail community must remember what Satoshi set out to achieve. As long as there are those who resist, Bitcoin’s original vision lives on. #LonelyApollo
CME:BTC1!Short
by LonelyApollo
3
Bitcoin is almost there!CRYPTOCAP:BTC is at a VERY IMPORTANT level. This area has been an issue for the last few YEARS. One thing to notice is that #BTC volume is WEAK, look at yellow box. Do you notice that volume is UNDER the white line? That line is an average. This means that the recent volume is below average for 90 days = LIGHT. This could be because sell volume has been light. Now we need to consider, what will cause BUY VOLUME to come in & propel higher? #Bitcoin is almost there, good signs showing. Incoming volume to break out would be a huge plus!!! ETF's are great, we like AMEX:BITX for leveraged exposure and trading, but keep in mind; NOT IN YOUR WALLET, NOT YOURS!
CME:BTC1!Long
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin Breakout Alert! The daily Bitcoin chart just broke through its downtrend line from March 2024 — and it did so with some serious momentum! 📈 Now we’re watching for a continuation of this upward move. The first key resistance level? The March 2024 high at $74,415. Looking at the big picture on the monthly chart, BTC has been in a four-year uptrend channel, with the upper boundary currently around $81,150. That’s the next target if we clear this high. Exciting times ahead! 🚀 Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CME:BTC1!Long
by The_STA
BTC breakout longCME:BTC1! Strong break above the downtrend resistance two weeks ago. Has consolidated and retested the line, and is near the top of this two-week consolidation. A break above 70k (70,250) and things are back into crazy-pants bullish territory. On a solid break above 70k, this entire year will look to be a consolidation after the move from 34k to 78k. Which means, the measured move would be either another 44k up, or another +130%. We could see 150k by March of next year.
CME:MBT1!Long
by OverexposedPhotoOfADress