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BTC1! trade ideas

CME - Showing Early Signs of WeaknessThis move has played out picture perfect. Please check out "BTC - Next Week Expectations" to see the prediction vs reality. Upon open of CME we created a gap that is currently around the low $28k region. If you have been watching CME you knows these gaps like to be filled. We are also finding resistance at overbought conditions on our 4H RSI (red circle). In our previous post we pointed out how we would most likely get a short squeeze and break our last micro high of $29.2k so whales could soak up all the liquidity from such a squeeze. So far we did break above that high and have seen the bullish momentum of price action start to stall in this zone (most likely longs getting trapped/ new shorts being filled). Price could remain bullish up until Wednesday and maybe even test close to the $30k region. Please be warned to use extreme caution with our opening price action this week. Looking for shorts in this range look more profitable than longs due to the overbought nature of the 3D and lower timeframes.
CME:BTC1!
by VIAQUANT
Bitcoin stuck for now, but should hold support on dipsDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CME:BTC1!Long
by The_STA
2
BTC CME GAP at 20K?A CME gap refers to the difference in price between the closing price of a financial instrument (such as Bitcoin) on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and its opening price when trading resumes after a weekend or holiday. Some traders and analysts pay close attention to CME gaps in Bitcoin, as they believe that these gaps may act as support or resistance levels in the market. However, it's important to note that not all CME gaps are filled, and that the market can move in unpredictable ways. That being said, CME gaps in Bitcoin have gained a lot of attention in recent years due to the cryptocurrency's volatile price movements. Traders and analysts often watch for potential gaps that may be filled in the future, and use this information as part of their trading strategies.
CME:BTC1!
by mwch786
3
BTC could go to 35k and fill the gapHi there! I want to share my opinion with you which is about bitcoin futures (code: btc1!). As you can see from the chart, btc fall to and got support from fibonacci 0.786 level (18k) since Jun 2022. Then the price raised up and go down from previous low and resistance level 25k, and after FTX collapse btc broke the previous low level and hit a new low since 2020. And we all know but since Jan this year everything changed, btc raised rapidly and broke through the bottom, after the price broke the wedge and by the fomo and short squeezed, though many banks bankrupted but the price continued go up and created a new high since Oct 2022. Currently btc is trading near the resistance level and I expect that the price can go down from it and go to support level to retest previous high from the head and shoulders pattern. And I think btc can grow from the support level and break local high and reach the gap area which is also fibonacci 0.382 resistance level of 35k. Based on these reasons, I set up 2 targets located at lower edge of the gap $34500 level and fibonacci 0.382 resistance level $35700. This is my opinion, and I really hope it will be useful for you. This is not financial advice, always do your own research. Please support this idea by click the boost and comment, thank you ;)
CME:BTC1!Long
by YongTung
23
BTC: Crypto Staged a Strong Comeback in Q1CME: Micro Bitcoin ( CME:MBT1! ) and Micro ETH ( CME:MET1! ) In First Quarter 2023, Cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly amid turmoil in the financial markets. CME Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) gained $11,825 or +71% year-to-date. Micro ETH Futures (MET) gained $510 or +39% YTD. Bitcoin rallied amid the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. While US government came to the rescue and Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS, crypto prices did not fall back down. Gold, the traditional hedging asset, rallied in response to the SVB failure. Gold Futures (GC) recorded a YTD gain of +6.5%, while Silver Futures (SI) was down 3%. US Equity Market was mixed in Q1. Nasdaq 100 has the best performance. NQ futures recorded a YTD return of +18.5%. S&P 500 (ES) was up 5.5% only, while Russell 2000 (RTY) turned up merely 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.1%. What to Invest in a Flight-to-Safety The fact that Crypto becomes the biggest winner in a flight-to-safety is remarkable. Last year, as inflation was flying high and the Fed raised interest rates aggressively, investors flocked to the US dollar. Strong exchange rate and high yield make it a logical choice of safe investment. We had expected the economic slowdown to start from the housing market and the high-tech industry. However, we found cracking at the heart of economy, the US banking system. Systemic risk is a clear and present danger facing us today. Bank runs spread from midsize banks to investment bank. Panicked investors pull money out of banks and also dump bank stocks and debts. Credit default swaps skyrocket. In a new "Risk-Off" mode, investors abandoned fiat money and moved their asset into cryptocurrencies. For the first time, dollar is being viewed as a risky asset. This may be a game changer long-awaited by the crypto industry. Crypto: A Separate Set of Risks Last year, the entire crypto market lost $1.4 trillion as BTC fell from $67K to $16K. Big event risks include the failure of stable coin terraUSD, the collapses of the No. 2 crypto Exchange FTX and crypto lender Silvergate. Outside of market risk, the biggest risk is a regulatory one. This week, US regulator Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charges Binance against its illegal operations. The CFTC has filed a civil enforcement action in the U.S. District Court of Illinois, charging Binance and three entities that operate the Binance platform with numerous violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations. The complaint charges that Binance operates a centralized digital asset trading platform through an intentionally opaque common enterprise. The defendants allegedly chose to knowingly disregard applicable provisions of the CEA while engaging in a calculated strategy of regulatory arbitrage to their commercial benefit. In its continuing litigation against the defendants, the agency seeks disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, permanent trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the CEA and CFTC regulations. The above illustrates the legal and regulatory risks faced by many crypto operators. Decentralization means that you are not protected by any government. Parking your Bitcoin at a crypto Exchange does not come with a $250K FDIC depository insurance. None of crypto Exchanges have been in existence for over a decade. Thus, their business models are not fully tested in a boom-and-bust cycle.. So counter-party risk is the key. Watch who you're doing business with very carefully. Short-term Investment Strategies "Buy-low-and-Sell-high" is a well-tested investment strategy. But spotting the bottom is very difficult in the crypto world. If you rushed in when BTC dropped from $67K to $50K, you would still lose half of your money a year later. Instead of HODL (“Hold On to your Dear Life”), short-term trades may work better for high-beta assets such as Bitcoin and Ether. CME Micro BTC futures (MBT) is useful for both bullish and bearish strategies. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $800. Today, BTC rallies by $1,064 to $28,393. If you purchased BTC in the spot market, you would realize a daily gain of 3.8%. If you own a long MBT position, the dollar gain is $106, corresponding to 1/10 of a BTC. The theoretical return would be 13.2% (=106/800), which is 2.5 times higher. Similarly, CME Micro ETH future (MET) has a contract notional of 1/10 of 1 ETH. Initial margin is $61. Today, ETH went up by $14 to $1,792, or +0.8% in the spot market. But a long Micro ETH futures position would gain 2.3% (=1.4/61), which is 1.9 times higher. Investing in the CME market, investors could rest-assured to be free from default risk and counter-party risk. In its 175-year history, there was never a case of clearing member default resulting in a loss of customer fund. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1