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BTC1! trade ideas

Our algorithms entered long in crypto at breakoutThe blockchain total market capitalization is at the beginning of a new momentum trend of what it seems the most likely scenario would be a stage 2 trend (uptrend). Most of our momentum trading bots that trade blockchain assets as underlying's have entered long with stop trailing orders. The RSI in the weekly chart is of +70.11 for Bitcoin CME Futures and of 68.07 for the total blockchain market capitalization. A very strong trend. A short-term trend pullback so that afterwards it continues the uptrend is the most likely scenario , but, even if in the end the trend loses strength and it goes to a stage 4 one (bearish), our bots will short-sell the market anyways. Entering long in equity indices and blockchain assets with algorithmic momentum is the weekly main update from our side.
CME:BTC1!Long
by blockmas
Could a Strong US Dollar Curb Rise of Bitcoin, Nasdaq?The value of the US dollar has returned to prominence this year, reaching near new annual highs. Since July, the value of the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies (as measured by the US Dollar Index) has increased from 99 to 105. This means that the greenback is regaining strength after a period of weakness. The dollar's rise was surprising, considering that many experts had predicted a decline in 2023. With the U.S. economy uncertain and estimates of possible recessions, the Fed was sure to cut rates in the following year. However, the currency's rally proved otherwise. Despite ups and downs, the dollar continues to maintain an upward trend ahead of the December 13 Fed meeting. Although no further interest rate increase is expected at this meeting, an aggressive approach by Powell is expected in light of the latest statements. It is expected that the Fed will keep options open for further tightening if necessary and may delay possible interest rate cuts until late 2024. However, even if rate cuts are made, they are not likely to be significant because of inflation below the 2 percent target. To understand the recent increases in the dollar and the reasons behind them, it is necessary to look at global economic dynamics. The global economic situation is currently deeply divided. PIL Chart PIL Chart As the United States continues to defy pessimistic forecasts and growth in China and Europe falters, the dollar has regained strength, rising sharply against major currencies in the past two months. In late 2022, most economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would act to prevent a possible recession by reducing interest rates. However, at the present time there appears to be no threat of recession to the economy. The latest estimate of U.S. GDP shows that the economy is in excellent condition. The U.S. economy revitalized in the third quarter of 2023, registering an annual growth rate of 4.9 percent. This represents the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021 and exceeds market forecasts that were on 4.3 percent. A strong dollar is not good news for the United States, as an increase in its valuation could reduce profits earned abroad. EUR/USD-Daily ChartEUR/USD-Daily Chart Companies such as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) Co. have already been affected by this trend in Europe and Asia, with theme park visitors from abroad expected to decline. Many estimates indicate that even an 8-10 percent increase in the dollar can cause an average 1 percent decline in U.S. companies' profits. Finally, I anticipate a strong dollar for this quarter and the first quarter of 2024, which is affecting my portfolio choices. Given my market analysis, I have chosen to avoid U.S. indices such as the Nasdaq and instead focus on Japan's Nikkei index. Japan's weak currency makes it favorable for my forecast. The Euro/dollar exchange rate could also be at risk of a retest of the 1.00 level. In my portfolio, I still have investments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining stocks, but I anticipate possible short-term weakness with the negative seasonality for this cryptocurrency. However, news about an ETF that would allow investors to participate in the Bitcoin market without owning it directly could temporarily support prices.
CME:BTC1!
by Antonio_Ferlito
Last move closed the GAP from May 9, 2022This unclosed GAP on CME Futures waited there for more than a year and half and now it is closed. What doest it means about the future price moves? First of all, the traders that were trapped on that levels can now close the positions break-even, but should they do that after waiting so long? I think that most of them will, because of psychologic bias. But, there are people that are always buying and adding more BTC to their portfolio even in current levels, because the Bitcoin ETF proposals of BalckRock and several other funds are still on a table of SEC and can be approved any day. Microstrategy, for example, increased they BTC holdings in last year and their average buy price is $29,744.
CME:BTC1!
by dearwish
5 Step Trading Plan Template"Playing Catch Up" - A clear, easy to follow 5 Step Trading Plan Template for Breakout Trading. Step 1. Recognize the change in trend. Whether you use ranges, patterns, or stage analysis, all essentially help to confirm that the trend has changed from down or sideways to up (or vice versa, but just make sure its in the same direction you plan on trading!). In this case, we have a "U" shaped recovery which is comprised of an island-type reversal with a very clear sell off which was sharply supported on a high interest price level ($20,000) while then breaking out of the larger U reversal neckline at $25,000. Trend has changed from down/sideways to up (or Weinstein's Stage 2). Step 2. Identify the breakout. This trendline confirmed itself twice as support in 2021 and was broken in 2022. It then acted as resistance twice in 2023 before breaking last week.* Step 3. Establish a price target. Here we have targeted the previous local high before the breakdown of the trendline. Price was unable to advance past this level last time, so its likely become a resistance level and an area of supply in the market. Step 4. Ask yourself: what if I'm wrong? It's the question to always be asking yourself, but not too often where it keeps you from taking appropriate amounts of risk. It's important to be prepared for all scenarios, even the ones you believe to be least likely. We place the stop just below the trendline breakout in case price breaks down. Even if its just chop, we can reestablish a new position under new circumstances. We will not be left holding in case price goes to 0. Step 5. Confirm risk management. In this case, this trade happens to coincide with a 4:1 reward to risk ratio, which means if I am trading with the same amount of capital for every trade, I can lose 4 times and win 1 time to breakeven, or as I have written on the chart, I can lose 3 times and win 1 time to be profitable. As a trader I recognize I will not win every single trade, so to remain solvent I must account for this. You need to know your win/loss rate in order to have a clear idea of what R/R ratio is appropriate for you! *Note: Assuming we hadn't gotten long earlier, the breakout at Step 2 is the ideal price to go long. This can be difficult if you aren't on your computer/phone all day. This tutorial is how to play catch up with a simple risk management plan. There are also ways to decrease risk even more, by layering buys from this entry down to the trendline breakout, increasing the size of purchases as price gets closer to the breakout price (this is still done in conjunction with our risk size of "1"). This lowers our average purchase price, and with it our risk, because our stop-loss price does not change. I hope this helps, let me know in the comments section what you think. Thanks for reading. -harambepay
CME:BTC1!Education
by harambepay
Bitcoin Futures : Gap filledCME Bitcoin Futures : Gap filled ...................................................................................................................... We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature. and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
CME:BTC1!
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
Bitcoin Vs. Gold Part 1COMEX:GC1! Vs CME:BTC1! -- That's the problem with teaching about stocks. The problem is popularity doesn't last. Even if you are good at trading. The main thing you need to remember is you need to understand your technical experience. Right now Bitcoin is in a buying position. And so we have this Bitcoin vs. Gold situation. The Fed interest rate decision is on the 1st Of Nov. 2023 Watch this video to learn more. Disclaimer:Do not buy or sell anything I recommend. Do your own research before you trade. Rocket boost this content for more information
CME:BTC1!Long
by lubosi
🅱️ Bitcoin CME Futures Premium Confirms Bullish ContinuationBitcoin's CME Futures currently trades 500USD or 1.27% higher vs Bitcoin Spot (BTCUSD). This premium clearly reveals a bullish bias for Bitcoin. When Bitcoin starts a new trend or, is set to move higher and does move higher or, simply becomes bullish, futures prices always trade at a premium vs spot. This is the situation we are in now. This bullish bias is supported by a strong reading coming from the oscillators as well as a bulls dominated volume profile. Only in early November 2022 is bear volume really high, the rest of this chart clearly shows bull volume being predominant during each major move. Bitcoin is set to move higher, this is based on many signals coming from this and other charts. Namaste.
CME:BTC1!Long
by AlanSantana
1
Bitcoin Bull Run Precedes Ethereum RallyDays of triple digit volatility and rampant amateur speculation are gone. Unlike the overblown enthusiasm which defined the peak of 2021, investors now are more measured and discerning. 2023 has been defined by (a) discrete and information fuelled rallies followed by unprecedented low volatility, and (b) rise of traditional finance entrants in digital assets. Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied sharply relative to Ethereum (“ETH”), pushing BTC-ETH ratio to its highest level since 2021. Several factors point to a potential reversal in the ratio. Investors can deploy CME Micro BTC and Micro ETH Futures to harness gains from eventual reversion. BTC surged 20% during the past week driven by excitement over the anticipated approval of a BTC Spot ETF. Large liquidations triggered as BTC prices rose on its re-emergence as a haven asset as discussed in a previous paper . BITCOIN IS A HAVEN (AGAIN) In October, BTC’s correlation with gold rose while correlation with Nasdaq-100 has inverted suggesting that investors consider BTC as a haven rather than a risk-on asset. The case for BTC as a haven derives from its limited supply. Every four years, the number of BTCs minted as a mining reward, halves and will eventually halt, leading to a fixed supply. BTC has played its role as a haven previously. In March this year, during the US regional banking crisis, BTC surged 40%. BTC also rallied 20% at the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict but soon pared those gains. Given the repeated pullback in its prices, question around BTC’s ability to deliver as a safe haven remains. Assigning BTC a haven status could be a tad bit too early. It is a new asset. It faces regulatory ambiguity. It remains under-invested relative to traditional safe havens like gold and treasuries. Notwithstanding that BTC is new, it is the most popular and widely tested cryptocurrency. Flow of assets from riskier crypto to the safety of BTC during rising uncertainty partly contributes to haven flows into BTC. SHORT SQUEEZE ACCENTUATED BITCOIN’S RALLY Recent rally was punctuated by heavy deleveraging in BTC derivatives. During the long squeeze in August, 64,000 BTCs were liquidated. In the following period, only half of these long positions returned. These positions were not spared either as large liquidations occurred on October 17th and 23rd leading to unwinding of more than 60,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode The size of liquidation was like those in Jan 2023 when prices definitively broke above the $20k range, suggesting that this washout may be adequate to cement a major psychological price level. AWAITING A BTC SPOT ETF The latest development in the BTC spot ETF saga comes as an appeals court upheld the ruling against SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s spot ETF application based on concerns that market manipulation is not addressed sufficiently. The court held that SEC’s decision was arbitrary, capricious, and unenforceable. This time around, the SEC stated it will not be appealing any further. The SEC’s easing stance is also echoed in the modest feedback response to other spot ETF applications. Many now believe that all spot BTC ETFs will be approved together and probably before the deadline of January 10th. Approval of spot BTC ETFs is expected to make the asset available to a wider audience in a familiar Tradfi product structure making BTC go “mainstream.” Spot ETFs will spur greater demand for spot BTC from ETF manufacturers. When gold ETF was first listed, incremental fund flows translated into higher demand for physical gold. ETF listing and BTC price run is not a given as regulatory concerns remain. Prices have struggled to sustain ETF excitement driven rallies not once but thrice in 2023 due to slow developments compounded by a harsh macro backdrop. The risk that the current rally will pullback persists. Earlier this week, price action was significantly influenced by investors speculating on the approval of Blackrock spot ETF (IBTC). The rumours have been spurred by the listing, delisting, and relisting of the ticker on Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website. BITCOIN BULL RUN PRECEDE ALTCOIN RALLIES In stark contrast to BTC’s rally, other major cryptocurrencies have lagged pushing BTC dominance to its highest since 2021. ETH has rallied 15% over the past week. ETH underperformance relative to BTC has pushed the ratio between them to levels unseen since 2021. Altcoin underperformance is unusual. During past BTC rallies, ETH price tops lagged BTC tops by a month. This is a consequence of capital rotation within crypto. In past rallies, asset rotation can be seen in three distinct waves starting with (1) increase in BTC capital, (2) ETH rotation, followed by (3) increasing stablecoin flows. MARKET METRICS AND ON-CHAIN SIGNALS A raft of market metrics points to bullish sentiment in crypto markets due to resilient Long-Term Holders (LTH), limited profits at current levels, and strained supply which is expected to be exacerbated by demand from spot ETFs. More importantly, market metrics indicate a higher bullish sentiment for ETH. FUTURES AND OPTIONS POSITIONING Leveraged funds have built up net short positioning over the last few weeks in BTC futures. Contrastingly asset managers have setup net long positioning. In options, BTC full size options have a bullish P/C ratio of 0.51 and Micro BTC options have a P/C ratio of 0.76. In contrast, leveraged funds bullish on ETH have switched from net short to net long positioning last week. Full size ETH options have bullish P/C ratio of 0.38 and Micro ETH options have P/C ratio of 0.38. Overall, leveraged funds and option markets are more bullish on ETH compared to BTC. TRADE SETUP BTC prices may pullback relative to ETH in the short term given price divergence. CME’s suite of crypto futures can be deployed to harness gains from this trend reversal. The hypothetical spread posited in this paper consists of two legs: (1) long position in Micro ETH futures expiring on November 24th ( METX3 ) and, (2) short position in Micro BTC futures expiring on the same date ( MBTX3 ). Each lot of Micro ETH futures provide exposure to 0.1 ETH while each lot of Micro BTC futures provides exposure to 0.1 BTC. To balance notional values, nineteen lots of METX3 are required for each lot of MBTX3 at current prices ● Entry: 19.090 ● Target: 17.58 ● Stop Loss: 20.000 ● Profit at Target: USD 276 ● Loss at Stop: USD 169 ● Reward to Risk: 1.6x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBT1!Long
by mintdotfinance
16